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#8 +, $+ $ ), $+ ), 8 + ) )+ ) & +, ) + + 78 + +, & & 9 *Reactive power reserves, voltage control and stability performance are not considered, as the cost of mitigation options are an order of magnitude lower. 4
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Southland Otago Taranaki Northland Manawatu Hawke s Bay Source: www.nzwindfarms.co.nz High Wind 2010 NI:432 MW SI:203 MW NZ:634 MW Very High Wind 2020 NI:1434 MW SI:632 MW NZ:2066 MW Very High Wind 2030 NI:2215 MW SI:1197 MW NZ:3412 MW Location Island MW GWh PA Avg LF Otago SI 144.0 492 39.0% Manawatu NI 7.0 28 45.0% Manawatu NI 19.5 77 45.0% Wellington NI 142.6 573 45.9% Location Island MW GWh PA Avg LF Otago SI 144.0 492 39.0% Manawatu NI 7.0 28 45.0% Manawatu NI 19.5 77 45.0% Wellington NI 142.6 573 45.9% Wellington NI 94.3 363 44.0% Hawke's Bay NI 48.0 179 42.5% Hawke's Bay NI 150.0 484 36.9% Central NI 100.0 350 40.0% Manawatu NI 150.0 565 43.0% Wairarapa NI 90.0 323 41.0% Northland NI 102.5 359 40.0% Taranaki NI 99.0 361 41.7% Northland NI 68.8 241 40.0% Wellington NI 100.0 365 41.7% Otago SI 261.0 892 39.0% Southland SI 168.0 589 40.0% Location Island MW GWh PA Avg LF Otago SI 144.0 492 39.0% Manawatu NI 7.0 28 45.0% Manawatu NI 19.5 77 45.0% Wellington NI 142.6 573 45.9% Waikato NI 44.0 135 35.0% Manawatu NI 150.0 526 40.0% Wellington NI 94.3 363 44.0% Hawke's Bay NI 48.0 179 42.5% Hawke's Bay NI 150.0 484 36.9% Central NI 100.0 350 40.0% Manawatu NI 150.0 565 43.0% Wairarapa NI 90.0 323 41.0% Northland NI 102.5 359 40.0% Hawke's Bay NI 111.0 389 40.0% Otago SI 100.0 377 43.0% Otago SI 261.0 892 39.0% Taranaki NI 99.0 361 41.7% Northland NI 250.7 878 40.0% Auckland NI 225.0 788 40.0% Northland NI 68.8 241 40.0% Otago SI 100.0 359 41.0% Wellington NI 100.0 365 41.7% Otago SI 150.0 512 39.0% Canterbury SI 215.0 659 35.0% Southland SI 168.0 589 40.0% #
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,7 > /,; / :) ': ') &: &) %: %) $: $) : # & ) & ) &% &% %2 %2 %& $: %)$) %)%) %)&).< Capacity credit with wind forecasting is based on a conservative approach to accommodate 99% of the wind variations across a 4 to 6 hour time horizon. #C
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2 ; A?,./ A #A # A # " 7 # @ $) 5E 5<0 5E 5< 5E 5<+ 7G 7A 7B 7= 7" 7C G G# G G7 GG GA GB + ) 2& )5E 5<?,./ G 7A 7 A #A # A 6@ %) 7= 5E5<0 5E 5< 5E 5<+ #B = 7 # G# G G7 GG GA GB G= G" GC A *, /?,./ 6@ &) = B7 B A G 7 #G # 8=A 21 GC A# A7 AA A= AC *, / *, / 5E 5<0 5E 5< 5E 5<+
(# $ : + )& + &, & +,& )+,& 0 & 1,) & ),,+ + & ); # 3#8= 8=>? 4) 3#87 8 >? 4 0 2/2 3 #@# #A 4& ),,& )8 @ 7& 3B8 /C>? 4+,),$+ + + )& )),
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7 7(> #8 O ),& )& & 8 2,37+ 4, ) L8 F$ ),3#4, ) 8 ),3G/B4, )) 8 )+,$+ + ) 8 F ) / L8 78 <, ),$+ G8,9 8 % 3?,)? 4 L8 2 & & 3 # 74 8 2 8 5 & & 30 4 <8 & 3 A B4 9>A A > A
7 (>7 # + + ),8,+ 2,,,7+ & F$ )3#4 ),3G/B4,& + ) & ) Reduction in wind power output (electricity production from other generators need to be increased) σ Expected wind power output Increase in wind power output (electricity production from other generators need to be decreased) Note: Sigma (σ) denotes the standard deviation. It is a measure of the spread of the values of wind power output from its mean (forecasted or expected value). To cover 73% wind variability requires additional reserve (1σ). 96% 2σ 99% 3σ 99.5% 4σ B
6+(>,/ North Island (An illustrative winter peak demand day in 2020) South Island GA # 7A B B, / G 7A 7 A #A # A # " B G B, / (>, / 7 A #A # A 02P- 02P 2P- 2P A G 7 # B, / # 7 A = C ## #7 #A #= #C # 7 A = C 7# 77 7A 7= 7C G# G7 GA G= # 7 A = C ## #7 #A #= #C # 7 A = C 7# 77 7A 7= 7C G# G7 GA G= B B +,$ & & =
> 7 (>,& ) & & & + / : & + 3.,4) 5& / 2 $ ) 2 + 23254 2 ), ),& + & ) + & & &, + E ) + )) )+ + & + ),+ ) ),+ ). ) ),&. "
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(> 7# $ ), 288 ), % R + + )& % R & 8+.+ + 0 22 BK 20 2& )),$, $ )+ + ) + $+ E ),+ +, )& + + 34) &.) ),+,/+ & $ + & + 5,),$),CC8AK ) 7
(> 7#% -,$+ + 7 + #8), )& )# -,$+ + +,+ + 8,$+ & &,,.. & & 8 2 + ) ) )),$+ + 8 & + & + + + =AK,& 8 7#
(=C?(> %)$) %)%) %)&) ( " ( " ( " # 02 7C" #= # G GGB #A 7# A77 7#A A7 2 #B= =7 BA GA #A= #=G 7=C =# 7 B 01 ABA #" #"C BC# 7= G"B C# A"B " C 02 7C" #A "# GGB 7#G = A77 GBB 7A 2 #B= C7 7# GA B #A 7=C G #G 01 ABA G7 ## BC# AG 7== C# "BB ABB 7 0 2 7C" #CG 7= GGB G#B #= A77 B#" 2 #B= ##A C GA CB 7A 7=C A7 B= 0 1 ABA 7C GB BC# =# A C# ##G" B= Note: all units are expressed in MW IR = Instantaneous Reserve FK = Frequency Keeping 7
?7 (> 7 (>,-. / G8 78A 78 8A 8 #8A #8 )-, )-, 8=B #8 A 8=B 8" 78GA 8G 78G 8A 8 A 8#C 8 # 7 # 7 # 7 # 7 Case1: dominated by standing reserve Case2: balanced allocation Case3: dominated by spinning reserve 77
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( 7= 7 Hydro Generation (Weekly dispatch) Auxiliary Generation (weekly available energy) Wind Generation (1/2 hourly profiles ) Thermal Generation (Cost and technical characteristics) Demand (1/2 hourly) Dispatch Optimization Module (Objective function: Minimization of thermal capacity requirement) COPT Module (Thermal capacity outage characteristics) Output ½-hourly dispatch of: Auxiliary, Wind, Hydro and Thermal generation Reliability Assessment Module (LOLE, EENS) Yes LOLE / EENS Bench mark NO Adequate capacity level System Operation Model 7"
<D + B++ Without Wind With Wind 8#G 8#G 8# 8# 8# 8# 2010 B? 8" 8B 8G?B 8" 8B 8G 8 8 8 8 87 87 8 A 8 A 8 8 2030?B 8#A 8#?B 8#A 8# 8A 8A 8 8 7C
8 E D Scenario @ %)$),'02;/ 6@ %)%),$%0:;/ 6@ %)&),$402;/ Region >>. ##= 7= #AG ##BB 7= # 7 # A 7= # G G7 7 B7G #G7G B7 BB #A ##C= 7G# % #"=7 7AA= AG7 #"=7 7AA= AG7 #"=7 7AA= AG7 C= / C= C= / C= C= / C= #A / #A #A= / #A= #"# / #"# E / / / / / / / / / #AB / #AB #AB / #AB #AB / #AB ) 3 4 ACGC 7=C= C=G= =#=# G B ##7C= " 7 G=C# #7 %)3 4 BC#C #=C C G"G" BC#C #=C C G"G" BC#C #=C C G"G" )3 4 #BA7 B7# "A GCB #"#C B= G =GG 77AG #=C= + 3 4 G"G GAA = C= AAC" "GA "GG7 B =7 7#C= CGBC <)+ 3 4 "CA #=G# GACC7 77BGG #C"# A7GAB 7=C= 7A# B A" G
B Based on 2005 wind profiles for 2010 scenario # 02 #B 01 D B,8 / # " B G 2 D B,8 / #G # # " B G # C #"7 =G 7BA D # C #"7 =G 7BA D )3 4 0 2 2 #BA7 B7# "A +.+ + GC G = + + + #A )3 4 0 2 2 ) 3 4 0 2 2 GCB #"#C B= G =GG 77AG #=C= +.+ + #GA = #CC +.+ + " #G 7 + + + G= A A= + + + == " CG,) 7 # GG,) CG 7A # C,) #G7 BA " G#
G 7A 7 A #A # A B )4 B 02 2 A @ $) 02 2 G 7 # # B ## #B # B 7# 7B G# GB A# AB B# BB =# =B "# "B C# CB ## G 8 # B ## #B # B 7# 7B G# GB A# AB B# BB =# =B "# "B C# CB ## 8 #" #B #G # # " B G 6@ %) 7 02 2 A 6@ &) 02 2 #A # A 8 # B ## #B # B 7# 7B G# GB A# AB B# BB =# =B "# "B C# CB ## # B ## #B # B 7# 7B G# GB A# AB B# BB =# =B "# "B C# CB ## 8
B, / 8 A GA G 7A 7 A #A # A )4 A B 8 C " = B A G 7 # @ $) A B # G = # #7 #B #C A " 7# 7G 7= G G7 GB GC A # G = # #7 #B #C A " 7# 7G 7= G G7 GB GC A 7 A 6@ %) A B GA G 7A 6@ &) A B 7 8 #A 8 A # #A A # A # G = # #7 #B #C A " 7# 7G 7= G G7 GB GC A # G = # #7 #B #C A " 7# 7G 7= G G7 GB GC A Data starts from first week of January G7
@ B Based on average hydro condition D(?(,8 / GA G 7A 7 A #A # A -E-P2 -E-P02 @,8 / 7 A #A # A -,P2 -E-P2 -,P02 -E-P0 2 / / # C #"7 =G 7BA # ## # 7# G# A# July D June July June -, --, 02 2 01 02 2 01 02 2 01 )3 4 7=B C" # "G 7#AC ""GC # " BC#C #=C C G"G" +.+ + 3 4 C7 #C "C8 "B AB 77 #=" G=G B#C + + + 3 4 A ##7 #BA87 7B C #GA "C 7 7#,)3 4 = #=A GB8C B# #= 7# #77 7GA G=" GG
> #%)&) @ 7 >B?, / " = B A G 7 # @ * D Hydro-Thermal System = B A G 7 # D, / 7 >B?, / B A G 7 # @ * D B A G 7 # D, / *,$.%/ *,$.%/ Wind-Hydro-Thermal System 7 >B?, / " = B A G 7 # @ * D " = B A G 7 # D, / 7 >B?, / B A G 7 # @ * D B A G 7 # D, / *,$.%/ *,$.%/ GA
B> (># B @ %)$) # < 2/% Throughout the year, hydro is primary source for FK,8 / # " B G / # G = ##7#B#C A "7#7G7=GG7GBGCA 2/ 2/. 0 2/ 02/E 02/ 02/ 02/% 02/ 0 2/. Primary source of Primary source for instantaneous reserve is Hydro (not affected by demand) = >, / A GA G 7A 7 A #A # A /A # G = ##7 #B#C A "7# 7G7= G G7GB GC A 2/% 0 2/ 02/E 02/ 02/ 02/% 02/ 0 2/. >, / = B A G 7 # # G = ##7#B#C A "7#7G7=GG7GBGCA 2/% 02/25 0 2/ 02/E 02/ 02/ 02/% F$ 6)-, 2-,
B> (>#@ B 6@ %)&) #G < 2/% "> @,> /,8 / # # " B G / # G = ##7#B#C A "7#7G7=GG7GBGCA 2/ 2/. 0 2/ 02/E 02/ 02/ 02/% 02/ 0 2/. B > @, + / F8 + > ( = >, / # # " B G # G = ##7#B#C A "7#7G7=GG7GBGCA F$ 6)-, 2/% 0 2/ 02/E 02/ 02/ 02/% >, / # C " = B A G 7 # @ " # G = ##7#B#C A "7#7G7=GG7GBGCA 2-, 2/% 02/25 0 2/ 02/E 02/ 02/ 02/%