Storage Systems Market Analysis Dec 04

Storage Systems Market Analysis Dec 04

Storage Market & Technologies

World Wide Disk Storage Systems Market Analysis Wor ldwi d e D i s k Storage S y s tems Revenu e b y Sup p l i e r, 2001-2003 2001 2002 2003 Company Rev $M share% Rev $M share% Rev $M share% HP* 1,790.40 7.6% 4201.1 21.1% 5219.8 25.7% IBM 3,473.20 14.8% 3771.8 19.0% 4295.7 21.2% EMC 3,803.20 16.2% 2400.4 12.1% 2524.2 12.4% Sun Microsystems 1,382.90 5.9% 1440 7.2% 1295.3 6.4% Dell 902.10 3.8% 974.1 4.9% 1283.4 6.3% Hitachi 1,567.00 6.7% 1196.7 6.0% 1248.3 6.2% Network Appliance 545.20 2.3% 520.3 2.6% 576 2.8% Fujitsu 846.50 3.6% 599 3.0% 543.9 2.7% NEC 505.50 2.2% 375.9 1.9% 334.6 1.6% Fujitsu Seimens 233.60 1.0% 272.5 1.4% 286.3 1.4% Other 8,414.40 35.9% 4151.4 20.9% 2671.9 13.2% Total 23,464.0 19,903.2 20,279.4 YonY Market Growth -15.2% 1.9% Total External Storage Systems Rev 17,195.1 73.3% 13,097.1 65.8% 13,590.9 67.0% YonY Market Growth -23.8% 3.8% OEM Storage Systems Revenue 782.6 3.3% 1,204.3 6.1% 1,597.3 7.9% YonY Growth % 53.9% 32.6% % share of External Storage Systems 4.6% 9.2% 11.8% * For 2Q02-4Q02, HP is reported as the combined entity of HP and Compaq. The data for these companies was reported separately in 1Q02 and all prior years. Source: IDC, 2004 & Company Data

External Storage Systems Market Structure 2001 2002 2003 Market Segmentation %of External StorageMarket %of External StorageMarket Revenue Revenue Revenue %of External StorageMarket Total External Storage Systems Rev 17,195.1 13,097.1 13,590.9 % YonY Growth -23.8% 3.8% External RAID 14,151.6 82.3% 11,512.4 87.9% 12,272.6 90.3% External JBOD 3,043.5 17.7% 1,584.7 12.1% 1,318.3 9.7% Direct Attached Storage 9,357.5 54.4% 5,931.9 45.3% 5,503.6 40.5% % YonY Growth -36.6% -7.2% Total External Networked Systems Rev 7,837.6 45.6% 7,165.2 54.7% 8,087.3 59.5% Source: IDC, 2004 % YonY Growth -8.6% 12.9% FCSAN 4,873.8 28.3% 4,901.1 37.4% 5,886.7 43.3% % YonY Growth 0.6% 20.1% NAS 1,731.2 10.1% 1,511.1 11.5% 1,483.6 10.9% % YonY Growth -12.7% -1.8% Escon/Ficon SAN 1,232.6 7.2% 753.0 5.7% 717.0 5.3% % YonY Growth -38.9% -4.8%

External Storage Revenue growth projections

High Capacity Low Cost Drive Summary

Long Term Trends for RAID Technology Raid Commoditization Basic function well understood RAID, Failover / Fail Back, Drive rebuild, Cache Several low cost vendors with Good Enough Solutions Prices and Costs falling steadily Raid Offload Basic feature function being pushed into silicon Single chip solutions coming from several vendors Ivivity, Istor, Aristos Removes RAID engine as bottleneck Firmware features now in silicon Huge improvement in I/O rates Performance under failure None shipping in Volume yet Large Disk Drive RAID rebuild issues RAID 6 & RAIDn Rebuild times on failure can be measured in days Probability of a second failure relatively high Two failures with traditional RAID protection loses whole data set New Algorithms required

RAID Algorithms Protection against failure Total number of disks for N data disks Measure of cost Ratio of total:data (for N=8) Disk ops per write Measures of performance Relative Relative throughput throughput 70R:30W with one disk (for N=8) failed JBOD none N 1 1W 1-1 RAID-5 RAID-1/10 RAID-6 RAID-51 RAID-5&0 Triple mirror any one disk any one disk any two disks any three disks any two disks any two disks N+1 1.125 2(R+W) 0.59 0.39 0.52 2N 2 2W 1.54 1.47 0.77 N+2 1.25 3(R+W) 0.5 0.36 0.4 2N+2 2.25 2(R+W)+2W 0.9 0.65 0.4 2N+1 2.125 2(R+W)+1W 0.97 0.78 0.46 3N 3 3W 1.89 1.85 0.63 Data Disk 1 Data Disk 2 Data Disk 3 Data Disk 4 Horizontal Parity Disk Diagonal Parity Disk Data1 Data2 Data3 Data4 Parity DParity1 Data Data1 Data2 Data3 Parity4 DParity2 Data4 Data Data1 Data2 Parity3 DParity3 Data3 Data4 Data Data1 Parity2 DParity4 Relative throughput per disk

Market Overview and Trends Forecasted SCSI to SAS transition drivers Ability to use SATA or SAS depending upon need Parallel vs Serial Architecture Cable Length and bulk Low cost infrastructure Performance 2Gb to 4 Gb transition drivers Ease of Migration (2Gb / 4Gb interchange Performance increase Faster Controllers Faster drives Enclosure trends 2U 3.5 and 2.5 High density Long Term Trends RAID commoditization Raid offload AS and new architectures

SCSI to SAS Transition Adoption Curve - SCSI to SAS IDC View IDC View: 18000 16000 Internal Drives Internal Arrays Entry RAID Mainstream Gradual take up of SAS in a low cost server environment. Units (000's) 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 SCSI SAS Adoption into arrays by late 05 in direct attach environments. Entry RAID systems emerge Q4 2006 SAS becomes the mainstream by Q2 2007, with SCSI still commanding a presence. Very gradual and cautious take up of SAS Time Drive Vendor View: SAS drives begin to ramp in Q4 2004. 18000 Adoption Curve - SCSI to SAS Drive Vendor View Internal Internal Entry RAID Drives Arrays Mainstream By Q1/2 2005, SAS drives are common in internal arrays and driving a rapid take up. 16000 14000 Entry RAID systems are implemented in volume by late 2005 SAS becomes the mainstream by early 2006 Units (000's) 12000 10000 8000 6000 SCSI SAS A rapid adoption of SAS due to the performance and cost saving benefits over Parallel SCSI. 4000 2000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Time

FC trends 2Gb to 4Gb FC Disk Adoption Curve Early Mid Late 15000 1GB/s Units (000's) 10000 5000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008? 2GB/s 4GB/s 8GB/s Total FC 1GB/s 1200 200 0 2GB/s 1608 3745 4800 1541 0 4GB/s 0 4625 7145 8109 3905 8GB/s 0 500 5895 Date Total FC Numbers 2002 2007 from IDC. Volumes for total year not per QTR eg: 4GB FC 2004 is Zero 2005 is 4,625 Breakdown by FC Interface speed Xyratex view

Enclosures 2U Enclosures Will likely be the standard for 3.5 SAS enclosures Lower cost per unit Lower increment of capacity Similar to 14/16 on a per slot cost basis Expected to be the standard for 2.5 enterprise systems Very high I/O density (5 to 6k I/Ops) Very low cost per slot (Similar overall cost to 3U wit 2x the slot count) High storage density, With 144GB drives over 4TB in 2U Internal Rack JBOD 2.5 will be 1U with 10 or 12 drives High Density Enclosures coming from several vendors All have design compromise Top Loader (Xyratex, ATA Beast) Front loader (multiple drives per carrier) Power issue for non-sata drives for greater than 40 drives High density for storage Some cost per slot savings

Emerging 1U / 2U Storage Appliance Market Integrated Server / Storage Products Network attachment GbE Block and File Management Systems Carrier Carrier Tyan SMDC M3289 1U Enclosures 4 SATA Drives, ATX (P4) Motherboard, IPMI, GbE, Dual Inlet Power. 1/2 TB storage solution Carrier Carrier Carrier Carrier 2U Enclosures 12 SATA Drives, E-ATX (Dual Xeon) Motherboard, IPMI, GbE, Dual redundant Power 4/6TB storage solution Carrier Carrier Carrier Over 25 bids in progress 2005 Revenue and Investment Opportunity Carrier Carrier Carrier Carrier

Storage Sub Systems Classes Traditional General Purpose 8, 12, 14 & 16 3.5in FC/SATA/SAS/SCSI High Performance 2.5in Drives SAS & FC Not All Data Is Equal Storage Systems can now be tailored to the Application Bulk Storage 3.5in Drives SATA via SAS or FC

Modular Design Strategy: Capacity, Connectivity, Capabilities; C3 Capability C3 Strategy: Capacity, Connectivity and Capability Encryption Compression HA STRATEGY 3: Move along Z-axis Best of Breed Capabilities RAID STRATEGY 1: Move along X-axis Best of Breed Disk Enclosures SAS SATA FCAL SSA SCSI Management SCSI SSA FC iscsi SAS Capacity STRATEGY 2: Connectivity Move along Y-axis Best of Breed Interconnectivity

The Box is changing to meet new requirements Basic IT Infrastructure Lots of different boxes often connected together Multiple interconnect fabrics to develop, install and manage

The Box is changing to meet new requirements Basic IT infrastructure Dedicated Processor Systems, External Dedicated Fabrics, Networked Storage

The Box is changing to meet new requirements Next Generation IT infrastructure Blade Processor Systems, Internal fabrics, High Density Networked Storage High Density Networked Storage System Shared I/O To LAN, WAN & Storage High Bandwidth Interconnect High Density Processor Blades

A New Type of Box Integrated System Issues Power Density 2KW to 10KW per Rack Thermal Management Increased Device Density Server Systems to Blades 3.5 to 2.5 Disk Drives EMI / RFI Constraints High Density Ultra High Speed Devices 10-30 Gb/sec channels for blades 4-10 Gb/sec for Disk Drives 3-10 Gb/sec for I/O Blade Server Utility Computing Modules Shared I/O & Clustering Switch Shared IO Modules High Density Storage Sub Systems

A New Type of Box Integrated System Scalable in the box storage and servers Highly integrated solutions Emerging new middleware Repurposing of processor tasks Low Latency requirements High Performance Interconnect Blade Server Utility Computing Modules Shared I/O & Clustering Switch Shared storage I/O & Storage Resiliency versus Redundancy options Shared IO Modules New Distributed Storage Environments Information Life Cycle Management Object Based Storage Grid Architectures High Density Storage Sub Systems

RS-1600 Current Module Options 2Gb FC-FC RAID 1Gb FC-AL JBOD I/O 1 loop of 16 Drives DB9 Connections Enclosure Management SES 1Gb FC-FC RAID FFx 128-512MB Cache Dual Host SFP DB9 Expansion RS232 RAID Mgt Encl Management SES 2Gb FC-AL JBOD I/O 2 loops of 8 Drives SFP Connections Enclosure Management SES IFT 5251F 128-512MB Cache 2 Host SFP Expansion SFP RS232 RAID Mgt Ethernet RAID Mgt Encl Management SES Battery Cache Backup 2Gb FC-FC RAID 2Gb FC-FC RAID FFx2 128-512MB Cache 2 Host SFP Expansion SFP RS232 RAID Mgt Ethernet RAID Mgt* Encl Management SES Battery Cache Backup X24 128-512MB Cache 2 Host SFP 2 Expansion SFP RS232 RAID Mgt Ethernet RAID Mgt Encl Management SES Battery Cache Backup

The Xyratex X24 Controller X24 RAID 5 4x 16 drives 800 700 600 Mbs / Sec 500 400 300 200 100 seq read seq w rite ran read ran w rite 0 0.5 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 Block size in Kbs