A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TELECOMMUNICATION DEVELOPMENT IN INDIA AND KARNATAKA

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TELECOMMUNICATION DEVELOPMENT IN INDIA AND KARNATAKA 1 Rajashekara S B, 2 Dr. R.N.Kadam 1 Research Scholar, Department of Economics, Kuvempu University, Shankaraghatta, Shivamogga Dist, Karnataka (India) 2 Associate Professor, Department of Studies and Research in Economics, Kuvempu University, Shankaraghatta, Shivamogga Dist, Karnataka (India) ABSTRACT The role of communication is very important in economic development of any economy as the use of various means of telecommunication has become an integral part of society. Telecom is one of the fastest growing industries in India where India being the second largest telecommunication market in the world. At the same time the subscriber base for telecom services in India is large but skewed in favour of urban areas where urban tele-density is 4.4 times that of rural density. Further, wireless phones dominate the market in India and wire line phone segment constitutes merely 3.4 percent of the total subscriber base. Like that the numbers of internet and broadband subscribers are of small fraction of the population where on the other hand the number of people capable of accessing the net through mobile phones is substantially high. With this respect, the present study focuses on the growth and development of telecom subscribers, operators and tele-density in India and as well as in Karnataka with respect to wireless and wired lines. Also this paper aims in analyzing trends in village public telephones and public call office followed by users of internet services. The later part of the study deals with future trends with regard to telecommunication subscribers and tele-density in India and Karnataka along with internet uses. Keywords: Tele-Density, Subscriber, Fraction, Operator, Internet and Broadband, Communication. I INTRODUCTION In developing countries, Globalization, privatization and liberalization accelerated all round reforms in communication sectors in general and telecommunication sector in particular as the result of which Indian Telecommunication sector in the world is next to China where the Indian telecom sector has emerged as one of the critical components of economic growth which is required for overall socio-economic development of any country. According to Joshi (2014), World Bank believes that an increase in mobile and broadband penetration increases the per capita GDP by 0.81% and 1.38% respectively in the developing countries 1. Like that Jean Jipguep opinioned that in the late twentieth century, three driving forces of integration were transport, television and telecommunications which together provided the foundation for the growth of trade 2. He also added that 219 P a g e

investment in telecommunication networks not only facilitated economic trade in goods by bringing together buyers and sellers, but also promoted trade in services upon which modern economies are built. II AN OVERVIEW OF TELECOM INDUSTRY IN INDIA Telecom is one of the fastest growing industries in India where mobile phone industry in India contributed about US $ 400 billion in terms of gross domestic product of the country in 2014 and this sector which is growing exponentially is expected to generate about 4.1 million additional jobs by 2020 3. As per the report published by Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, for the period April 2000 up to January 2014, the telecom industry has got in foreign direct investment of about US$59796 million, which was around 6 percent increase to the total FDI inflows. Further, according to a study by Nokia Slements Networks, Data traffic powered by third generation (3G) services grew at 146 percent in India during 2013, which was higher than the global average. Like that it was traced out by the research from IDC, India that India s smart phone market grew by 171 percent in 2013, to 44 million devices as against to 16.2 million devices in 2012. At the same time the increasing popularity of bring-your-own-device (BYOD) in the workplace was further adding momentum to the smart phone market. In 2015-16, in India there were totally 1043.29 million telecom subscribers out of which 57.88 percent (603.85 subscribers out of 1043.29 subscribers) were urban subscribers and remaining 42.12 percent were rural subscribers revealing that much gap doesn t existed between urban and rural subscribers indicating the popularity of telecommunication in India. On the other hand, telecom density in India has increased from 3.58 % in 2000-01 to 82.30 % in 2015-16 where urban and rural tele-density stood at 153.02 and 50.33 percent respectively 4. III OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY Some of the major objectives of the present study are as under: 1) To examine the growth and development of telecom sector in India and in Karnataka, 2) To study the present trends in telecom sector in India and Karnataka and 3) To predict future growth opportunities in Indian and Karnataka Telecom Sector. IV METHODOLOGY The present study is mainly based on secondary data collected from various annual reports released by the Department of Telecommunication, Telecom Regulator Authority of India, Ministry of Communication and other sources. From the point of the study, specific objectives, statistical tools like simple average, percentage method, compound annual growth rate have been calculated. To predict the behaviour of various parameters with regard to telecom sector in India and Karnataka state regression analysis is conducted and based upon the value of R 2 predictions for the period 2015-16 to 2019-20 have been made. 220 P a g e

V DISCUSSION The initial stage of the present study has been drafted to portray the growth and development of telecom sector in India at macro level and Karnataka state at micro level on the basis of present trends in telecom sector which on the later stage, the researcher aims at predicting the status of telecom sector in India and Karnataka. Hence, the researcher tried to present the discussion under two major heads, first Trends in Indian Telecom and Karnataka Telecom Sector and second Future Growth Opportunities in India Telecom and Karnataka Telecom Sector. 5.1. Trends in Indian Telecom and Karnataka Telecom With respect to the players in the market, in wire-line service provider BSNL stands at the top as against to wireless service provider bagged by Bharti Airtel a private sector. However, as on September 2016, BSNL as a public sector company is growing by showing average revenue per user per month of Rs. 119 and private sector of Rs. 122 where overall average revenue per use stood at Rs. 122 per month. On the other hand, in Karnataka average revenue per user was around Rs. 148 per month 5. 5.1.1 Telecom Subscribers, Operators and Tele-density (wireless and wired) After the announcement of the National Telecom Policy 1994, Indian telecom sector has seen interesting transitions in the last two decades especially in the last decade from a supply constraint, duopolistic market, high tariffs and very low penetration to ultra-competitive, low tariffs that are probably cheapest in the world and mobile penetration at 70 percent plus in 2014. From the data in Table 1A it can be seen that for the period 2008-09 to 2015-16, on an average there were about 890.44 million telecom subscribers out of which 61.87 percent were urban subscribers and 38.13 were rural subscribers which recorded growth of 55.78 percent in 2015-16 when compared to 2008-09. In other words, in 2008-09 there were 562.16 million telecom subscribers which increased to 1043.29 million subscribers at compound annual growth of 9.24 percent per annum. Like that the compound annual growth rate of urban and rural telecom subscribers stood at 6.54 percent and 14.10 percent per annum indicating higher growth among rural telecom subscribers when compared to urban telecom subscribers. Table 1A: All India Telecom Subscribers, operators and tele-density (Wireless + Wire line) Urban Rural Operators (in %) Teledensity Private Public Urban Rural 1 2008-09 387.63 174.53 562.16 NA NA 110.96 21.16 47.88 2 2009-10 527.50 259.78 787.28 84.60 15.40 147.88 31.18 66.16 3 2010-11 611.19 315.33 926.53 86.09 13.91 167.85 37.48 76.86 4 2011-12 556.96 338.54 895.51 85.51 14.49 149.90 39.85 73.34 5 2012-13 549.40 365.79 915.19 86.63 13.37 144.95 42.67 74.02 6 2013-14 572.29 398.68 970.97 89.16 10.84 148.06 46.09 77.58 7 2014-15 599.01 423.61 1022.61 89.98 10.02 153.49 48.76 80.98 8 2015-16 603.85 439.43 1043.29 NA NA 153.02 50.33 82.30 9 Average 550.98 339.46 890.44 87.00 13.01 147.01 39.69 72.39 10 R 2 0.50 0.94 0.78 0.88 0.88 0.22 0.92 0.70 11 % Growth 55.78 151.78 85.59 6.36-34.94 37.91 137.85 71.89 12 CAGR 6.54 14.10 9.24 1.24-8.24 4.70 13.18 8.05 221 P a g e

The role of private sector was seen to be more than public sector in providing telecom services as the percentage of market share of private when compared to public was at higher rate accounting for 89.98 percent as against public sector at only 10.02 percent. At the same time private operators had positive growth rate of 6.36 percent when compared to negative growth rate of public sector at -34.94 percent where private sector has positive growth rate of 1.24 percent per annum while public sector had negative growth rate of -8.24 percent per annum. This reveals the impact of foreign direct investment in infrastructure sector especially in telecom sector. India is the second largest country next to China in telecom market. With the huge population of India and the popularity of mobile phones among Indians recorded direct impact on the tele-density which steadily increased both at rural and urban areas. In 2008-09 the overall tele-density was around 47.88 where urban density was around 110.96 and rural density was 21.16 which increased by 37.91 and 137.85 percent in urban and rural teledensity respectively in 2015-16 where overall tele-density was 82.30 and urban and rural tele-density at 153.02 and 50.33 indicating that people at rural area were also influenced by telecom sector in later years. The compound annual growth rate in tele-density was at 8.05 percent per annum out of which compound annual growth rate in tele-density at urban and rural areas were at 4.70 and 13.18 percent per annum. However, the average tele-density in urban area was around three times (270.40 percent) more when compared to rural teledensity. With regard to Karnataka state, for the period in between 2008-09 and 2014-15, on an average there were 53.19 million telecom subscribers. Telecom subscribers in 2014-15 was around 76.08 percent more when compared to telecom subscribers in 2008-09 which had compound annual growth rate of 9.89 percent per annum. On the other hand, in 2014-15, totally there were around 62.51 million telecom subscribers out of which 42.68 million were urban telecom subscribers and 19.83 million were rural subscribers. Table 1B: Karnataka state Telecom Subscribers and tele-density (Wireless + Wire line) Tele-density Urban Rural 1 2008-09 35.50 128.01 21.14 60.48 2 2009-10 48.79 166.84 32.28 82.25 3 2010-11 56.51 184.11 40.50 94.30 4 2011-12 55.23 170.83 42.92 91.20 5 2012-13 54.35 169.06 45.75 92.76 6 2013-14 59.45 174.86 47.30 96.30 7 2014-15 62.51 177.50 52.07 100.61 8 Average 53.19 167.32 40.28 88.27 9 R 2 0.75 0.40 0.89 0.71 10 % Growth 76.08 38.66 146.31 66.35 11 CAGR 9.89 5.60 16.21 8.85 On the other hand, with respect to the tele-density, from the data in Table 1B, it can be observed there was fluctuation in tele-density for the above mentioned period where the average tele-density was around 88.27 which had gradual increase year by year having compound annual growth rate of 8.85 percent per annum. However, the increase in tele-density in 2014-15 was around 66.35 percent more when compared to tele-density prevailed during 2008-09. 222 P a g e

On the other hand, the average urban and rural tele-density for the above mentioned period stood at 167.32 and 40.28 respectively. Further, in 2008-09 which had urban and rural tele-density of 128.01 and 21.14 with compound annual growth rate of 5.60 and 16.21percent per annum at urban and rural tele-density respectively increased by 38.66 and 146.31 percent respectively and recorded urban tele-density of 177.50 and rural teledensity of 52.07 in the year 2014-15. However, it was also noticed that there was a wide gap between urban and rural tele-density which decrease in later years as the urban tele-density as against to rural tele-density was around 6 folds more in 20089-09 decreased to 4 folds in 2014-15. Telecommunication services are provided with wire line and wireless options. In present situation wireless telecommunication is found to be dominating wire line telecommunication services. On the other hand, in India, public sector played major role in providing wire line telecommunication services while private sector dominated in providing wireless telecommunication services. At the same time, public sector also concentrate more in providing rural telecom services when compared to private sector s contribution in providing telecom services at rural areas. On the other hand, the share of wireless telecommunication services was seen to be very high when compared to wire line telecommunication services as majority of the telecommunication subscribers opted for wireless telecommunication when compared to wire line telecommunication service. All these facts are evident from the data presented in the following tables. Table 2A: All India Telecom Subscribers, operators and tele-density (Wireless) Urban Rural Operators Tele-density (in %) Private Public Urban Rural 1 2008-09 360.52 164.57 525.09 NA NA 103.20 19.95 44.72 2 2009-10 501.30 250.89 752.19 87.75 12.25 140.53 30.11 63.22 3 2010-11 586.26 307.26 893.84 88.54 11.46 161.01 36.56 74.15 4 2011-12 533.12 331.60 864.72 87.83 12.17 143.48 39.04 70.82 5 2012-13 526.63 359.67 886.30 88.73 11.27 138.94 41.95 71.69 6 2013-14 550.64 393.34 943.97 91.01 8.99 142.46 45.47 75.43 7 2014-15 577.82 418.84 996.66 91.64 8.36 147.35 48.11 78.93 8 2015-16 582.95 435.02 1017.97 NA NA 147.72 49.83 80.30 9 Average 527.41 332.65 860.09 89.25 10.75 140.59 38.88 69.91 10 R 2 0.52 0.94 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.25 0.92 0.71 11 % Growth 61.70 164.34 93.87 4.43-31.76 43.14 149.77 79.56 12 CAGR 7.11 14.90 9.92 0.87-7.36 5.26 13.97 8.72 With regard to wireless telecom services for the study period, the data in Table 2A reveals that, on an average, there were about 860.09 million wireless telecom subscribers which almost had growth of 100 percent in 2015-16 when compared to 2008-09 with compound annual growth rate at 9.92 percent per annum. Like that out of total wireless telecom subscribers in the country, on an average about 61.32 percent of them were urban wireless telecom subscribers and remaining 38.68 percent of them were rural wireless telecom subscribers. The growth of urban and rural wireless telecom subscribers in 2015-16 when compared to 2008-09 recorded at 61.70 and 164.34 percent respectively with compound annual growth rate at 7.11 and 14.90 percent per annum for urban and rural wireless telecom subscribers. 223 P a g e

Similarly, for the same period, the average share of private sector in providing wireless telecommunication services was around 89.25 percent leaving only about 10.75 percent to public sector where the growth in private sector was about 4.43 percent in 2015-16 when compared to 2008-09 as against to decline in the share of public sector by 31.76 percent in 2015-16 when compared to 2008-09. However, the private sector telecom operators had positive compound annual growth rate of 0.87 percent per annum while public sector telecom operators recorded negative compound annual growth rate of 7.36 percent per annum. On the other hand, the overall wireless tele-density was at 69.91 which grew by 79.56 percent in 2015-16 when compared to 2008-09 with compound annual growth rate of 8.72 percent per annum. However, though rural tele-density increased constantly, while urban density was of mixed nature. The urban tele-density increased up to 2010-11and gradually declined in later years. The urban and rural tele-density increased by 44.14 and 149.77 percent in 2015-16 when compared to 2008-09 which had compound annual growth rate of 5.26 and 13.97 percent per annum. In Karnataka state, for the same period, the average wireless telecom subscribers were around 51.02 million which was about 5.9 percent of the total wireless telecom subscribers in the country where in 2008-09 there were about 32.75 million wireless telecom subscribers which increased by 83.91 million percent in 2014-15 as there were about 60.23 million wireless telecom subscribers. Out of total 60.23 million wireless telecom subscribers in the state the share of urban and rural wireless telecom subscribers were 67.49 and 32.51percent respectively. Table 2B: Karnataka state Telecom Subscribers and tele-density (Wireless) Tele-density Urban Rural 1 2008-09 32.75 117.92 19.59 55.78 2 2009-10 46.04 156.83 30.84 77.62 3 2010-11 53.80 174.29 39.16 89.78 4 2011-12 52.78 161.84 41.87 87.21 5 2012-13 54.35 160.46 44.86 88.93 6 2013-14 57.18 166.49 46.55 92.67 7 2014-15 60.23 169.04 51.41 96.93 8 Average 51.02 158.12 39.18 84.13 9 R 2 0.79 0.43 0.90 0.73 10 % Growth 83.91 43.35 162.43 73.77 11 CAGR 10.69 6.19 17.34 9.65 Further, with respect to tele-density in the state, for the same period, the average tele-density was 84.13 (Table 2B) which showed an increase of 73.77 percent in 2014-15 when compared to 2008-09. Similarly, average urban tele-density was around 158.12 percent where it was highest at 174.29 in 2010-11 as against to average rural tele-density of 39.18 which had steady increase and was about 4 folds less than urban tele-density. Like that in 2014-15 rural tele-density increase by 162.43 percent when compared to 2008-09 which had compound annual growth rate of 17.34 percent per annum as against compound annual growth rate of urban tele-density at 6.19 percent per annum. 224 P a g e

Table 3A: All India Telecom Subscribers and tele-density (Wire-line) Urban Rural Operators Teledensity (in %) Private Public Urban Rural 1 2008-09 27.11 9.95 37.06 NA NA 7.76 1.21 3.16 2 2009-10 26.21 8.88 35.09 17.02 82.98 7.35 1.07 2.95 3 2010-11 24.94 7.75 32.69 19.05 80.95 6.85 0.92 2.71 4 2011-12 23.84 6.95 30.79 20.43 79.57 6.42 0.82 2.52 5 2012-13 22.77 6.12 28.89 22.21 77.79 6.01 0.71 2.34 6 2013-14 21.66 5.34 27.00 24.24 75.76 5.60 0.62 2.16 7 2014-15 21.18 4.77 25.95 26.12 73.88 5.40 0.55 2.06 8 2015-16 20.90 4.42 25.32 NA NA 5.30 0.51 2.00 9 Average 23.58 6.77 30.35 21.51 78.49 6.34 0.80 2.49 10 R 2 0.98 0.98 0.98 1.00 1.00 0.97 0.97 0.97 11 % Growth -22.91-55.58-31.68 53.47-10.97-31.70-57.85-36.71 12 CAGR -3.65-10.95-5.30 8.94-2.30-5.30-11.61-6.33 With respect to wire line telecom subscribers, it was found from the data in Table 3A that for the study period the average wire-line telecom subscribers were about 30.35 million which had negative growth rate of 31.68 percent in 2015-16 when compared to 2008-09 which indicated that wireless telecom services was replacing wire line telecom services as wireless telecom services was more popular among people when compared to wire line telecom services. Further, the decrease in wire line telecom subscribers was found to be at higher level in rural area when compared to urban area where the decline among wire line telecom subscribers in rural area was at -10.95 percent per annum as against to -3.65 percent per annum in urban areas with overall decline at -5.30 percent per annum. In 2008-09 urban and rural wire line telecom subscribers were 27.11 and 9.95 million declined by 22.91 and 55.58 percent in 2015-16. Like that wire line telecom services which was provided by both private and public sector was found from the data in Table 3A that about 78.49 percent of operators were public sector and remaining 26.12 percent of wire line telecom service operators were private sector. However, in 2015-16 the share of private operator raised by 53.47 percent when compared to 2008-09 which resulted in the decline of public operators by 10.97 percent in 2015-16 when compared to 2008-09. On the other hand, the compound annual growth rate was positive among private operators and negative among public operators which were recorded at 8.94 and -2.30 percent per annum for private and public operators respectively. On the other hand, wire line tele-density was comparatively at low level when compared with wireless teledensity. Tele-density in 2008-09 which was at 7.76 and 1.21 for urban and rural wire line decreased by 31.70 and 57.85 percent in 2015-16 as tele-density for wire line telecommunication in urban and rural recorded at 5.30 and 0.51. However, compound annual growth rate of rural tele-density was at -11.61 percent per annum as against urban tele-density which was at -5.30 percent per annum while overall wire-line tele-density was at - 6.33 percent per annum which all indicated that wire line telecommunication service was losing its popularity as against to wireless telecommunication services. 225 P a g e

With respect to wire line telecom subscribers in Karnataka state, it can be noticed from the data in Table 3B that there were 2.49 million of wire line telecom subscribers which was about 8.2 percent of total wire line telecom subscribers in India which had negative compound annual growth rate of 3.13 percent per annum. In other words, wire line telecom subscribers who were around 2.78 million in 2008-09 declined to 2.28 million in 2014-15 where in 2014-15 telecom subscribers were about 17.39 percent less when compared to wire line telecom subscribers in 2008-09. On the other hand, in 2014-15, out of total 2.28 million wire line telecom subscribers, about 89 percent of them were from urban areas and only about 11 percent of them were from rural based. Table 3B: Karnataka state Telecom Subscribers and tele-density (Wire-line) Tele-density Urban Rural 1 2008-09 2.76 10.09 1.55 4.69 2 2009-10 2.74 10.01 1.45 4.63 3 2010-11 2.71 9.82 1.34 4.52 4 2011-12 2.45 8.99 1.05 4.05 5 2012-13 2.23 8.59 0.89 3.82 6 2013-14 2.27 8.36 0.74 3.67 7 2014-15 2.28 8.46 0.66 3.68 8 Average 2.49 9.19 1.10 4.15 9 R 2 0.85 0.91 0.98 0.93 10 % Growth -17.39-16.15-57.42-21.54 11 CAGR -3.13-2.89-13.26-3.96 With regard to tele-density, in the state the situation was almost similar to that of the country. In the state the average overall tele-density was at 4.15 having negative compound annual growth rate at -3.96 percent per annum. However, tele-density which was at 4.69 in 2008-09 decreased to 3.68 in 2014-15 where the decrease was by 21.54 percent. Further, tele-density in urban areas was found to be higher when compared with rural areas, but tele-density decreased at higher rate in rural areas when compared to urban areas as compound annual growth rate for urban and rural tele-density was at -2.89 and -13.26 percent per annum respectively. In other words, tele-density of urban and rural which were at 10.09 and 1.55 in 2008-09 decreased to 8.46 and 0.66 in 2014-15 where the decrease was around -16.15 and -57.42 percent in 2014-15 when compared to 2008-09. 5.1.2 Village Public Telephones and Public Call Office Village Public Telephones (VPT) and Public Call Office (PCO) are telecommunication devices which can be accessed by anybody for paying nominal charges after using it. Initially, these were widely used by majority of the population, but after the entry of mobile phones, the use of public telephone services gradually dropped down and now it is rarely seen. At the same time public call office generated employment opportunity to certain extent which gradually decreased. Generally public call offices were seen in urban areas and village public telephones were established in rural areas. From the data in Table 4A, it is evident that public call office had decreasing trend while village public telephone had low growth rate when compared to the growth of telecom subscribers both wireless and wire line. 226 P a g e

For the last seven years, in India, on an average there were 583052 village public telephones every year which had growth rate of only 0.50 percent per annum. Village public telephones which were around 570000 in 2008-09 increased to 587280 in 2014-15 which was about 3.03 percent when compared to 2008-09. On the other hand, the growth of public call office was seen declining for the last seven years. In 2008-09, there were 5520000 Public call offices operating in the country which drastically came down by 88.08 percent and as the result in 2014-15 there were only 658115 public call offices operating in the country where compound annual growth rate of public call offices stood at -29.84 percent per annum. Table 4A: All India VPT and PCO Village Public Telephones (VPT) Public Call Office (PCO) 1 2008-09 570000 5520000 2 2009-10 580000 3340000 3 2010-11 580000 2370000 4 2011-12 588000 1411000 5 2012-13 590000 1020000 6 2013-14 586087 779241 7 2014-15 587280 658115 8 Average 583052 2156908 9 R 2 0.68 0.84 10 % Growth 3.03-88.08 11 CAGR 0.50-29.84 Similarly, in Karnataka state, the data in Table 4B reveals that about 4.9 percent of the total village public telephones in the country were operated in the state where the development of village public telephones in the state for the period 2008-09 to 2014-15 was only at 0.02 percent per annum which was very low when compared to the annual growth rate of the country. At the same time, the growth in village public telephones in 2014-15 when compared to 2008-09 was around 0.12 percent as against to 3.03 percent of the country. Table 4B: Karnataka state VPT and PCO Village Public Telephones (VPT) Public Call Office (PCO) 1 2008-09 27418 574238 2 2009-10 27441 359135 3 2010-11 27449 213059 4 2011-12 27449 172348 5 2012-13 33833 120602 6 2013-14 27451 71536 7 2014-15 27451 51071 8 Average 28356 223141 9 R 2 0.04 0.86 10 % Growth 0.12-91.11 11 CAGR 0.02-33.19 227 P a g e

On the other hand, the decrease in public call office was at higher rate in the state when compared to the country as the rate of decrease recorded at -33.19 percent per annum which was around 3.35 percent more than the rate of decrease in the country. Further, in 2008-09 where 574238 public call offices were operating dropped down by 91.11 percent in 2014-15 and only about 51071 public call offices were operating in the state. 5.1.3 Internet/ Broadband Among various applications of telecommunication, internet is widely used by the subscribers either through narrowband or broadband where the speed/ frequency of data transmission of broadband will be at higher rate when compared to narrowband. Usually the speed of data transmission under narrowband will be 512 kpbs and under broadband 512 kpbs. By the end of January 2016, in the country, the top five service providers constituted 83.25 % market share of the total broadband subscribers namely Bharti Airtel (23.34 percent), Vodafone (18.73 percent), Idea Cellular (15.73 percent), BSNL (14.39 percent) and Reliance Communications Group (11.06 percent). On the other hand, the top five wired broadband service providers were BSNL (66.95 precent), Bharti Airtel (8.41 precent), MTNL (5.77 precent), Atria Convergence Technologies (4.06 precent), YOU broadband (2.55 precent) and others (12.26 precent) as against to top wireless broadband service providers who were Bharti Airtel (26.60 precent), Vodafone (21.78 precent), Idea Cellular (13.54 precent), Reliance Communication Group (12.18 precent), Aircel (6.87 precent) and (19.03 precent). Further, top five service areas in terms of internet subscriptions (wired + wireless) were Maharashtra with 27.71 million internet subscribers followed by Tamil Nadu having 26.87 million internet subscribers then Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and UP states with 24, 21.72 and 20.73 million internet subscribers respectively. The data in the below table 5 reveals that for the period 2008-09 to 2014-15 on an average there were 130.39 million internet subscribers which had annual growth rate of 66.52 percent per annum. Internet subscribers who were around 15.24 millions in 2008-09 increased to 324.95 in 2014-15 which was about 21 folds more when compared to 2008-09. Further, out of total internet subscribers, 66.15 percent of them used narrowband and remaining 33.85 percent of them were broadband internet subscribers. However, the compound annual growth rate of narrowband and broadband internet subscribers in the country was at 73.74 and 57.83 percent per annum respectively. Table 5: All India Internet/ Broadband subscribers Bandwidth Narrow Broad 1 2008-09 7.42 7.82 15.24 2 2009-10 7.7 10.99 18.69 3 2010-11 9.04 13.35 22.39 4 2011-12 10.35 14.98 25.33 5 2012-13 183.51 55.20 238.71 6 2013-14 181.65 85.74 267.39 7 2014-15 204.07 120.88 324.95 8 Average 86.25 44.14 130.39 228 P a g e

9 R 2 0.78 0.84 0.83 10 % Growth 2650.27 1445.78 2032.22 11 CAGR 73.74 57.83 66.52 On the other hand, in 2014-15 out of total 324.95 million internet subscribers, around 63 percent of them were narrowband subscribers and 37 percent of them broadband internet subscribers. Similarly, out of total internet subscribers the share of urban and rural internet subscribers was around 66 and 34 percent respectively. Like that, out of total internet subscribers, about 94 percent of them were using wireless internet connection and only about 6 percent were using wired internet connection. At the same time, out of 305.35 million of internet subscribers, 196.14 of them were using GPRS/ EDGE technology followed by 97.67 million using HSPA/WCDMA technology together constituting about 96.22 percent of the total wireless internet subscribers and the remaining 3.78 percent of wired internet subscribers were using other technologies like CDMA 1X (4.43 million), HSD/HSIA (4.17 million), EVDO/CDMA/LTE/FW_LTE (2.45 million), Wi-Fi (0.44 million) and Radio/Wi-Max/VSAT (0.05 million). With regard to 19.60 million of wireless internet subscribers, 66.79 percent (13.09 millions) of them used DSL technology followed by 16.48 percent (3.23 millions) of them using Dial up then 10.20 percent (2.0 millions) of them using Ethernet/ LAN constituting for 93.47 percent of total wireless internet subscribers by leaving remaining 6.53 percent who were using Cable Modem (5.41 percent), Fibre (0.87 percent) and Leased Line (0.31 percent) technologies. Like that, in Karnataka, in 2014-15 there were around 21.72 million of internet subscribers out of which 53.36 percent were using narrowband and remaining 46.64 percent of them broadband internet subscribers. Further, the share of urban and rural internet subscribers was around 73.90 and 26.10 percent respectively. In 2014-15, in India for every 100 people 25.73 of them were using internet out of whom internet users for every 100 people in urban and rural area stood at 54.43 and 12.81 persons respectively. Like that in Karnataka state, 34.95 persons for every 100 people were internet subscribers where in urban and rural areas there were 66.73 and 14.88 internet subscribers for every 100 telecom subscribers. VI FUTURE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES ON INDIAN TELECOM AND KARNATAKA TELECOM Based on the data for the period 2008-09 to 2014-15, predictions were made for the period 2015-16 up to 2019-20 regarding growth opportunities in Indian telecom and Karnataka telecom services were made and presented under following heads: 6.1.1 Telecom Subscribers Tele-density (wireless and wired) With regard to telecom subscribers, it can be predicted that on an average there might be 1225.98 million telecom subscribers (both wired and wireless) out of which around 675.75 million would be urban subscribers and 550.23 million would be rural subscribers which indicates slight gap between urban and rural telecom 229 P a g e

subscribers in the forth coming years. Like that, the share of private and public operators might be around 92.31 and 5.03 percent respectively in providing telecom services. At the same time, tele-density in India might be around 95.10 again revealing that urban tele-density (165.45) might be at higher level when compared to rural tele-density (62.60). Table 7A: Prediction regarding all India Telecom Subscribers, operators and tele-density (Wireless + Wire line) Operators Urban Rural Teledensity (in %) Private Public Urban Rural 1 2016-17 644.56 497.54 1142.10 90.72 9.28 160.84 56.87 89.42 2 2017-18 665.35 532.67 1198.02 91.78 8.22 163.92 60.69 93.20 3 2018-19 686.15 567.79 1253.94 92.85 7.15 166.99 64.51 96.99 4 2019-20 706.95 602.92 1309.87 93.91 6.09 170.06 68.33 100.77 Source: Table 1A Source: Table 1B Table 7B: Prediction regarding Karnataka state Telecom Subscribers and tele-density (Wireless + Wire line) Tele-density Urban Rural 1 2015-16 67.50 188.67 58.58 109.26 2 2016-17 71.08 194.01 63.15 114.51 3 2017-18 74.66 199.34 67.73 119.76 4 2018-19 78.24 204.68 72.30 125.01 5 2019-20 81.82 210.02 76.87 130.26 In Karnataka state for the same period it can be predicted that telecom subscribers might be around 92.87 million per year where the overall tele-density would be 117.14 which might be 23.18 percent more than the tele-density of India. Further, urban and rural tele-density in the state might be at 196.67 and 65.44 which again would be at higher level than country. Among wireless telecom subscribers, on an average there might be about 1206.16 million telecom subscribers every year out of which 657.85 and 548.31 million might be urban and rural telecom subscribers where the share of private and public operators would be at 93.22 and 6.78 percent respectively having overall tele-density at 93.64 having urban and rural break up of tele-density of 160.98 and 62.36. Table 8A: Prediction regarding All India Telecom Subscribers, operators and tele-density (Wireless) Urban Rural Operators Teledensity (in %) Private Public Urban Rural 1 2016-17 625.24 494.39 1119.62 92.03 7.97 155.88 56.49 87.71 2 2017-18 646.98 530.34 1177.29 92.82 7.18 159.28 60.41 91.67 3 2018-19 668.72 566.28 1234.96 93.61 6.39 162.68 64.32 95.62 4 2019-20 690.46 602.22 1292.64 94.41 5.59 166.08 68.23 99.58 Source: Table 2A 230 P a g e

Table 8B: Prediction regarding Karnataka state Telecom Subscribers, operators and tele-density (Wireless) Tele-density Urban Rural 1 2015-16 66.06 180.82 58.12 105.95 2 2016-17 69.82 186.49 62.86 111.40 3 2017-18 73.58 192.16 67.59 116.85 4 2018-19 77.34 197.84 72.33 122.31 5 2019-20 81.10 203.51 77.06 127.76 Source: Table 2B The situation in Karnataka state reveals that the average telecom subscribers for the prediction period would be around 71.10milliom per year where tele-density would be 114.13 having urban tele-density of 189.33 and rural tele-density of 65.23 which would be around 17.61 and 4.60 percent higher than urban and rural tele-density of India. Table 9A: Prediction regarding All India Telecom Subscribers, operators and tele-density (Wireline) Urban Rural Operators Teledensity (in %) Private Public Urban Rural 1 2016-17 19.32 3.17 22.48 27.80 72.20 4.67 0.35 1.72 2 2017-18 18.37 2.36 20.73 29.59 70.41 4.30 0.24 1.54 3 2018-19 17.42 1.56 18.99 31.39 68.61 3.93 0.14 1.37 4 2019-20 16.48 0.76 17.24 33.18 66.82 3.56 0.04 1.20 Source: Table 3A Table 9B: Prediction regarding Karnataka state Telecom Subscribers and tele-density (Wire-line) Source: Table 3B Tele-density Urban Rural 1 2015-16 2.08 7.84 0.45 3.34 2 2016-17 1.98 7.51 0.29 3.14 3 2017-18 1.88 7.17 0.12 2.94 4 2018-19 1.78 6.83-0.04 2.74 5 2019-20 1.67 6.50-0.20 2.54 With respect to the wire line telecom subscribers, it can be predicted that out of average 19.86 million wire line telecom subscribers for the prediction period 17.90 million wired telecom subscribers would be from urban areas and 1.96 million would be rural ones. For the same period about 69.51 percent would be under public sector and remaining 30.49 percent under private sector. Like that the overall tele-density of wire line telecom subscribers might be about 1.46 having urban tele-density of 4.11 and rural tele-density of 0.19. In Karnataka state, it can be predicted that there might be 1.93 million wire line telecom subscribers every year for the prediction period having overall tele-density of 3.04 where the urban and rural breakups would be at 7.34 and 0.21 respectively which would be slight higher than that of India. 6.1.2 Village Public Telephones and Public Call Office With regard to village public telephones and public call office, prediction was made only to village public telephones as public call offices were declining at faster rate and would be rarely operating in future days. However, with regard to village public telephones, it was noticed from the predictions that, on an average, there 231 P a g e

would be around 598913 village public telephones operating out of which about 5 percent (29749 village public telephones) would be operating in Karnataka state. Table 10: Prediction regarding All India VPT and PCO Source: Table 4A Village Public Telephones (VPT) India Karnataka 1 2015-16 593626 29285 2 2016-17 596269 29517 3 2017-18 598913 29749 4 2018-19 601556 29982 5 2019-20 604199 30214 6.1.3 Internet/ Broadband On the base of the application of Internet which is getting popularity in recent years, it can be predicted that on an average there would be 482.43 million internet subscribers out of which 67.28 percent (324.60 million) would be narrowband internet subscribers and remaining 32.72 percent (157.82 million) would be broadband internet subscribers. Table 11: Prediction regarding All India Internet/ Broadband subscribers Source: Table 5A Bandwidth Narrow Broad 1 2015-16 245.15 119.93 365.08 2 2016-17 284.88 138.87 423.75 3 2017-18 324.60 157.82 482.43 4 2018-19 364.33 176.77 541.10 5 2019-20 404.05 195.72 599.77 VII CONCLUSION With all the above facts, it can be concluded that Telecommunication playing important role in human life has become an integrated part of society. With the celebration of World Telecom Day on every year 17 th May, various uses of telecommunication in effective manner has paved way for the efficient growth of an economy. At the same time the efficient use of telecommunication one can remove various constraints of all the sectors in the economy resulting into increased productivity and better administration. Especially, in developing countries earlier telecommunication which was a big problem as all means of communication were confined to the rich people only has changed with the revolution in this sector where now all means are also available to middle and lower class people who play vital role in the growth of economy of any country. With the expansion of telecommunication services, impact of internet, video-conferencing and multi-media facilities, telecommunication in India could facilitate the flow of information, making it a key driver in the development of trade, agriculture, education, banking and all other sectors of the economy. 232 P a g e

On the other hand, increase of Foreign Direct Investment limit to 100 percent by the Government of India, has ensured continuous flow of investment to expand the reach of mobile operators. At the same time, giving special focus on unreserved area and backward regions along with the Department of Telecommunication having plan to serve the nation in its diversity, modern telecommunication facilities facilitating to all the rural and remote corners of the country, can make the growth and development of telecom sector of India which would result as a key contribution in India s economic and social up gradation. Finally, it can be concluded that, the importance of telecommunications in providing a technological foundation for societal communications, enabling participation and development of people in communities and providing vital infrastructure for national security, Indian telecommunication sector has got a long way to cover. REFERENCES 1) Papori Baruah & Rashmi Baruah., Telecom Sector in India: Past, Present and Future, International Journal of Humanities & Social Studies, Volume 1, Issue III, November 2014, pp 147-156 2) Jean Jipguep, Role of Telecommunication in Economic Integration, Retrieved from: http://www.africa.upenn.edu/comp_articles/role_14803.html [Accessed on 02 nd May, 2016] 3) Telecom Industry, Retrieved from: http://info.shine.com/indusry/telecom/9.com [Accessed on 2 nd May, 2016] 4) The Indian Telecom Services Performance Indicators, Annual Report, July September, 2015, Mahanagara Doorsanchar Bhawan, New Delhi India, 16 th February, 2016. 5) Press Release 22/2016, Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, New Delhi, 23 rd March, 2016. 6) Importance of Telecomm in Various Sector, Retrieved from http://www.mitsot.com/blog/importance-oftelecom-in-various-sectors.html, [accessed on 3 rd May, 2016] 7) Telecom Sector in India: A Decadal Profile, Telecom Regulatory Authority of India, Mahanagar Doorsanchar Bhawan, New Delhi, 2012. 8) Kala Seetharam Sridhar & Varadharajan Sridhar, Telecommunications Infrastructure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries, Applied Econometrics and International Development, Vol. 7-2 (2007). 9) Bjorn Wellenius, Social and Business Objectives of Telecommunications Policy, Fordham International Law Journal, Vol. 21, Issue 2, 1997, pp 434-438. 10) James Alleman, Carl Hunt, Donald Michaels, Paul Rappoport & Lester Taylor, Telecommunication and Economic Development: Empirical Evidence from Southern Africa, International Telecommunication Society, Sydney. 11) Anders Isaksson, Telecommunications and Industrial Development, working paper, Research and Statistics Branch, United Nations Industrial Development Organisation, Vienna, 2010. 12) Mohsin Shakeel, Raja Abdul Ghafoor Khan & Haniya Rehman Malik, Telecommunications Role in Economic Growth with Respect to Pakistan, Global Journal of Management and Business Research, Vol. 12, Issue 19, 2012. 233 P a g e