FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION

FIELD RESEARCH CORPORATION FOUNDED IN 1945 BY MERVIN FIELD 601 California Street San Francisco, California 94108 415-392-5763 Tabulations From a Field Poll Survey of California Registered Voters About the Job Performance Barack Obama as President - prepared for the - Sacramento Bee and Capitol Alert October 10, 2015 1

Introduction This volume presents the statistical data developed from a Field Poll survey of registered voters in California conducted among 1.002 registered voters September 17-October 4, 2015 about voter opinions about the job performance of Barak Obama as President. In order to cover a broad range of issues and minimize voter fatigue, some of the questions included in this report are based on a random subsample of 498 registered voters. The survey was administered by telephone in English and Spanish by live interviewers. Sampling Individual voters were sample at random from listings derived from the statewide voter registration rolls. Once a voter s name and telephone had been selected, interviews are attempted only with the specified voter. Interviews can be conducted on either the voter s landline or cell phone, depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file and the preference of the voter. Prior to the start of data collection, professionally-trained telephone interviewers were briefed with regard to the survey s proper calling and interviewing procedures by the Study Director. This session provided both interviewers and supervisors with an overview of the study and includes a question-by-question review of all items in the survey. Interviewers then completed survey interviews by telephone through the computer-assisted telephone interviewing (TI) system. TI controls the telephone scripts read to individual respondents by displaying the appropriate questionnaire items and their valid response code alternatives in their proper sequence on computer screens at each interviewer's booth. The interviewer then reads each question aloud to the respondent from the screen and enters each respondent's pre-coded answer category through the keyboard directly to a computer disk. All answers are automatically stored in computer memory. In order to bring hard-to-reach respondents into the survey, up to six attempts were made to each telephone number selected for inclusion into the sample. Callbacks were made at different times and on different days to increase the probability of finding voters available for the interview. Where possible, appointments are made at specified dates and times to maximize convenience. 2

Data Processing The data file resulting from TI interviewing is itself virtually error-free. Even so, a final series of data checks were performed by means of a specially designed cleaning program that scrutinizes each respondent record for internally inconsistent information. Once the data were determined to be clean and error-free, the overall sample was weighted to align it to its proper statewide proportions by demographic characteristics of the state s registered voter population. Guide to Reading the Tables The following is an explanation of the detailed statistical tabulations contained in this report: The question or questions upon which the data are based is shown at the top of each table. Tables are percentaged vertically with the raw percentage base appearing at the top of each column. The data have been weighted to known parameters of the statewide registered voter population. All percentages and frequencies reported in each table are therefore weighted tabulations. In instances where percentages are calculated on small bases (e.g., when the base is fewer than 100 respondents) the reader is urged to interpret the data with caution, since results are subject to larger levels of sampling error. Throughout the tables an asterisk is used to denote a value of less than 1/2 of 1%. A hyphen indicates zero value. On some tables the percentages may add to more than 100% due to multiple mentions. s of subgroups used in the tabulations may add to less than the total number of respondents due to some respondents not reporting that characteristic. 3

Subgroup Definitions The following are some of the definitions applicable to some of the voter subgroups reported in this volume: Southern California: Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, Imperial, Santa Barbara, Ventura, Kern, and San Luis Obispo counties Northern California: all other 48 California counties Coastal Counties: Inland counties: Los Angeles: San Diego/Orange: So Cal: SF Bay Area: Central Valley: San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Mateo, San Francisco, Contra Costa, Alameda, Marin, Napa, Solano, Sonoma, Santa Clara, Mendocino, Humboldt and Del Norte counties all other 38 California counties Los Angeles County San Diego County and Orange counties San Bernardino, Riverside, Imperial, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo San Francisco, Marin, Napa, Sonoma, Solano, Contra Costa, Alameda, Santa Clara, San Mateo Butte, Colusa, Fresno, Glenn, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Shasta, Stanislaus, Sutter, Tehama, Tulare, Yolo, and Yuba Northern Cal: Alpine, Amador, Calaveras, Del Norte, El Dorado, Humboldt, Inyo, Lake, Lassen, Mariposa, Mendocino, Monterey, Modoc, Mono, Nevada, Plumas, San Benito, Santa Cruz, Sierra, Siskiyou, Trinity, and Tuolumne 4

Estimates of Sampling Error In any survey based on a sampling, there is some sampling error introduced into the data by the process of sampling itself. When the sample has been drawn using random processes, it is possible to apply probability principles to determine the potential range of such error. While survey samples of human populations rarely, if ever, meet all of the criteria theoretically required for the application of these principles, it is customary to use them as an approximation of error that is introduced as a result of sampling. The table below shows the range of error associated with samples of various sizes at the 95% confidence level, which is customary for most public opinion surveys. For example, if 50% of the overall sample of 1,002 registered voters answered yes to a specific question, this statistic would have a sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, while findings based on the random subsample of 498 registered voters have a sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. Approximate percentage distribution of replies to question Sample size 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 100 +/- 6.0 +/- 9.2 +/- 10.0 +/- 9.2 +/- 6.0 300 +/- 3.5 +/- 5.3 +/- 5.8 +/- 5.3 +/- 3.5 500 +/- 2.7 +/- 4.1 +/- 4.5 +/- 4.1 +/- 2.7 1000 +/- 1.9 +/- 2.9 +/- 3.2 +/- 2.9 +/- 1.9 There are many other possible sources of error other than sampling variability in this and any other public opinion survey. The overall design and execution of the survey minimized the potential for these other sources of error. 5

Questions Asked Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling the nation s economy?* Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling of the nation s foreign policy?* * asked of a random subsample of 498 registered voters. 6

Q2 (Banner 1) : Registered Voters Weighted DIS Southern Northern Region Area Party Registration Coastal counties Inland counties L.A. County San Diego/ Orange So. Central Valley SF Bay Area Northern Democrat Republican No party pref./ others Primary election voter #1 #2 White non- Hispanic Q2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? 1002 606 396 704 298 275 181 150 159 184 53 452 273 277 694 485 534 271 85 138 1002 588 414 702 300 276 167 145 164 203 47 434 282 286 700 486 545 262 83 136 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 597 344 253 451 147 188 83 73 79 146 28 361 67 169 410 279 280 169 71 88 59.6% 58.5% 61.1% 64.2% 48.9% 68.1% 49.6% 50.4% 48.2% 71.9% 60.0% 83.1% 23.8% 59.1% 58.5% 57.4% 51.4% 64.4% 85.8% 64.5% 330 201 130 202 128 70 74 56 74 41 16 41 196 93 247 181 233 62 8 35 33.0% 34.1% 31.4% 28.8% 42.7% 25.6% 44.4% 38.4% 45.0% 20.0% 32.8% 9.4% 69.5% 32.6% 35.3% 37.2% 42.8% 23.7% 9.5% 25.7% 75 44 31 50 25 17 10 16 11 16 3 32 19 24 43 26 32 31 4 13 7.5% 7.4% 7.5% 7.1% 8.4% 6.3% 6.0% 11.2% 6.8% 8.1% 7.2% 7.5% 6.6% 8.3% 6.2% 5.4% 5.8% 11.9% 4.7% 9.8% Latino Ethnicity Black Asian/ Pacific Isle () Field Research Corporation Table 7 7

Q2 (Banner 2) : Registered Voters Weighted DIS Gender Age Political Ideology Tea Party identification Born again Christian Moder- A Lot/ some Strongly Moder- No, not 65 or ately Middle of Strongly Yes, born Male Female 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 conserv- ately older conserv- the road liberal Registered All born again ative liberal again ative Republican s Q2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? 1002 529 473 216 133 172 267 214 167 90 391 139 180 287 143 144 251 751 1002 471 531 186 160 167 274 214 175 87 400 130 178 293 150 144 249 753 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 597 263 334 131 98 100 158 110 31 44 236 106 166 80 16 65 119 478 59.6% 55.9% 62.9% 70.1% 61.3% 60.0% 57.6% 51.3% 17.6% 50.3% 58.9% 81.5% 93.5% 27.3% 10.4% 45.0% 47.9% 63.4% 330 185 145 42 50 54 98 86 140 39 116 18 4 192 126 66 108 223 33.0% 39.4% 27.3% 22.3% 31.2% 32.4% 36.0% 40.0% 80.1% 45.2% 29.0% 13.6% 2.3% 65.4% 84.2% 45.8% 43.2% 29.6% 75 22 52 14 12 13 17 19 4 4 48 6 7 21 8 13 22 52 7.5% 4.7% 9.9% 7.5% 7.5% 7.6% 6.4% 8.6% 2.3% 4.5% 12.1% 5.0% 4.2% 7.3% 5.4% 9.2% 8.9% 7.0% Field Research Corporation Table 8 8

Q2 (Banner 3) : Registered Voters H.S. or less Some college/ trade school Education Household Income Religion Marital Status College Post work Under $20,000 $20,000 - $40,000 $40,000 - $60,000 $60,000 - $100,000 More than $100,000 Protestant/ other Christian Catholic religion No preference Married/ Not married living together Widow/ separated/ divorced Never married Parent/ Guardian of child under 18 Q2. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? 1002 211 310 278 196 161 177 127 192 235 344 237 165 225 535 178 275 277 711 Weighted 1002 205 302 290 201 158 173 124 199 237 345 241 160 225 550 185 255 298 693 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 597 113 157 190 134 104 108 79 111 133 163 150 103 167 300 109 179 175 416 59.6% 55.3% 51.9% 65.5% 66.7% 65.7% 62.2% 64.1% 55.7% 56.2% 47.4% 62.4% 64.5% 74.3% 54.5% 59.0% 70.5% 58.7% 60.1% 330 77 114 87 51 37 46 37 78 95 157 71 44 47 211 57 60 108 219 DIS 33.0% 37.4% 37.8% 30.1% 25.4% 23.5% 26.5% 29.7% 39.3% 39.9% 45.6% 29.4% 27.8% 20.7% 38.4% 30.6% 23.7% 36.1% 31.6% 75 15 31 13 16 17 19 8 10 9 24 20 12 11 39 19 15 15 58 7.5% 7.3% 10.3% 4.4% 7.9% 10.8% 11.2% 6.3% 4.9% 3.9% 7.0% 8.3% 7.8% 5.0% 7.0% 10.5% 5.9% 5.2% 8.3% Yes No Field Research Corporation Table 9 9

Q3 (Banner 1) : Registered Voters (Form A) Weighted DIS Southern Northern Region Area Party Registration Coastal counties Inland counties L.A. County San Diego/ Orange So. Central Valley SF Bay Area Northern Democrat Republican No party pref./ others Primary election voter #1 #2 White non- Hispanic Q3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling the nation s economy? 498 295 203 357 141 142 86 67 77 94 32 231 121 146 349 246 262 132 48 72 498 292 206 352 146 137 83 72 81 101 24 216 140 142 355 246 269 129 47 68 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 288 169 119 214 74 86 43 39 37 66 16 181 30 77 198 135 144 77 40 37 57.8% 57.7% 57.8% 60.8% 50.5% 62.7% 52.3% 54.5% 45.5% 65.7% 67.1% 83.9% 21.5% 53.8% 55.9% 54.8% 53.4% 59.9% 86.1% 55.0% 179 109 70 116 63 46 39 25 39 24 8 23 102 53 141 98 108 44 5 25 36.0% 37.4% 34.0% 33.1% 43.0% 33.5% 46.4% 34.4% 47.4% 23.3% 32.9% 10.9% 73.0% 37.6% 39.6% 39.9% 40.2% 34.5% 10.4% 37.6% 31 14 17 22 10 5 1 8 6 11-11 8 12 16 13 17 7 2 5 6.2% 4.9% 8.2% 6.1% 6.5% 3.8% 1.3% 11.0% 7.2% 11.0% - 5.2% 5.4% 8.6% 4.5% 5.2% 6.4% 5.6% 3.5% 7.4% Latino Ethnicity Black Asian/ Pacific Isle () Field Research Corporation Table 10 10

Q3 (Banner 2) : Registered Voters (Form A) Weighted DIS Gender Age Political Ideology Tea Party identification Born again Christian Moder- A Lot/ some Strongly Moder- No, not 65 or ately Middle of Strongly Yes, born Male Female 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 conserv- ately older conserv- the road liberal Registered All born again ative liberal again ative Republican s Q3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling the nation s economy? 498 264 234 113 65 80 133 107 81 43 184 73 98 137 65 72 125 373 498 234 264 93 80 83 136 107 89 41 186 67 96 143 75 69 127 371 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 288 132 155 59 50 44 79 56 12 21 106 49 87 40 8 33 59 228 57.8% 56.5% 58.9% 63.2% 63.3% 52.5% 58.4% 52.2% 13.4% 50.2% 57.2% 72.8% 90.7% 28.2% 10.1% 47.9% 46.7% 61.6% 179 87 92 26 24 34 54 41 73 20 65 12 7 99 65 34 61 119 36.0% 37.3% 34.8% 28.5% 30.0% 40.9% 39.4% 38.8% 81.6% 47.7% 35.0% 17.1% 7.2% 69.0% 87.3% 49.1% 47.8% 32.0% 31 15 17 8 5 6 3 10 4 1 14 7 2 4 2 2 7 24 6.2% 6.2% 6.3% 8.3% 6.7% 6.6% 2.2% 9.0% 4.9% 2.1% 7.7% 10.1% 2.1% 2.7% 2.5% 3.0% 5.6% 6.5% Field Research Corporation Table 11 11

Q3 (Banner 3) : Registered Voters (Form A) H.S. or less Some college/ trade school Education Household Income Religion Marital Status College Post work Under $20,000 $20,000 - $40,000 $40,000 - $60,000 $60,000 - $100,000 More than $100,000 Protestant/ other Christian Catholic religion No preference Married/ Not married living together Widow/ separated/ divorced Never married Parent/ Guardian of child under 18 Q3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling the nation s economy? 498 89 158 140 107 74 87 60 96 125 170 107 90 114 258 87 144 127 362 Weighted 498 86 152 144 114 71 86 57 102 126 176 108 89 106 267 91 131 140 350 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 288 47 75 89 75 38 48 35 59 77 84 59 60 72 147 52 82 76 206 57.8% 54.8% 49.1% 61.7% 65.6% 53.5% 55.9% 61.5% 57.6% 60.8% 47.7% 54.8% 67.5% 68.2% 54.9% 56.5% 62.3% 54.0% 58.8% 179 32 67 45 35 25 30 19 40 45 84 40 26 25 104 33 42 53 125 DIS 36.0% 37.3% 43.9% 31.3% 31.0% 35.6% 34.9% 32.5% 39.5% 36.0% 47.7% 37.1% 29.6% 23.8% 39.0% 35.8% 31.8% 37.7% 35.7% 31 7 11 10 4 8 8 3 3 4 8 9 3 9 16 7 8 12 19 6.2% 7.8% 7.0% 6.9% 3.4% 10.9% 9.2% 6.0% 2.9% 3.2% 4.5% 8.2% 2.9% 8.0% 6.1% 7.7% 5.8% 8.4% 5.5% Yes No Field Research Corporation Table 12 12

Q4 (Banner 1) : Registered Voters (Form A) Weighted DIS Southern Northern Region Area Party Registration Coastal counties Inland counties L.A. County San Diego/ Orange So. Central Valley SF Bay Area Northern Democrat Republican No party pref./ others Primary election voter #1 #2 White non- Hispanic Q4. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling of the nation s foreign policy? 498 295 203 357 141 142 86 67 77 94 32 231 121 146 349 246 262 132 48 72 498 292 206 352 146 137 83 72 81 101 24 216 140 142 355 246 269 129 47 68 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 245 147 98 187 58 81 34 32 32 57 9 152 23 70 172 115 111 70 34 38 49.2% 50.3% 47.5% 53.1% 39.8% 59.1% 40.6% 44.8% 39.2% 56.2% 39.3% 70.4% 16.6% 49.1% 48.6% 46.7% 41.4% 54.7% 72.4% 56.2% 210 124 86 137 73 50 41 33 42 34 11 40 108 62 158 111 140 44 9 20 42.2% 42.3% 42.1% 38.9% 50.1% 36.2% 48.9% 46.3% 51.5% 33.4% 46.7% 18.6% 77.1% 43.6% 44.6% 45.3% 52.1% 34.3% 18.8% 30.3% 43 22 21 28 15 6 9 6 8 10 3 24 9 10 24 20 17 14 4 9 8.6% 7.4% 10.4% 8.0% 10.1% 4.7% 10.5% 8.9% 9.3% 10.4% 14.1% 11.0% 6.4% 7.3% 6.8% 8.0% 6.5% 10.9% 8.8% 13.6% Latino Ethnicity Black Asian/ Pacific Isle () Field Research Corporation Table 13 13

Q4 (Banner 2) : Registered Voters (Form A) Weighted DIS Gender Age Political Ideology Tea Party identification Born again Christian Moder- A Lot/ some Strongly Moder- No, not 65 or ately Middle of Strongly Yes, born Male Female 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 conserv- ately older conserv- the road liberal Registered All born again ative liberal again ative Republican s Q4. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling of the nation s foreign policy? 498 264 234 113 65 80 133 107 81 43 184 73 98 137 65 72 125 373 498 234 264 93 80 83 136 107 89 41 186 67 96 143 75 69 127 371 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 245 102 143 52 41 39 69 43 13 17 78 54 74 35 6 28 45 200 49.2% 43.5% 54.2% 56.2% 52.1% 47.4% 51.0% 40.0% 14.3% 40.2% 42.2% 79.7% 77.2% 24.2% 8.5% 41.2% 35.8% 53.8% 210 116 94 33 30 41 56 50 72 24 85 7 15 101 63 38 67 143 42.2% 49.6% 35.6% 35.3% 37.8% 49.2% 41.3% 47.3% 81.3% 58.8% 45.9% 10.8% 15.5% 70.7% 84.3% 55.9% 52.8% 38.6% 43 16 27 8 8 3 11 14 4 * 22 6 7 7 5 2 15 28 8.6% 6.8% 10.2% 8.6% 10.2% 3.4% 7.7% 12.8% 4.4% 1.0% 11.9% 9.4% 7.3% 5.2% 7.2% 2.9% 11.5% 7.6% Field Research Corporation Table 14 14

Q4 (Banner 3) : Registered Voters (Form A) H.S. or less Some college/ trade school Education Household Income Religion Marital Status College Post work Under $20,000 $20,000 - $40,000 $40,000 - $60,000 $60,000 - $100,000 More than $100,000 Protestant/ other Christian Catholic religion No preference Married/ Not married living together Widow/ separated/ divorced Never married Parent/ Guardian of child under 18 Q4. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing in handling of the nation s foreign policy? 498 89 158 140 107 74 87 60 96 125 170 107 90 114 258 87 144 127 362 Weighted 498 86 152 144 114 71 86 57 102 126 176 108 89 106 267 91 131 140 350 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 245 46 64 79 55 37 46 30 46 57 61 64 47 64 114 44 81 67 173 49.2% 53.8% 41.9% 54.5% 48.1% 52.5% 53.0% 52.6% 44.6% 44.9% 34.8% 59.3% 53.3% 59.9% 42.9% 47.9% 61.3% 47.7% 49.5% 210 33 71 54 52 26 32 23 51 57 98 37 35 34 130 37 41 62 145 DIS 42.2% 38.5% 46.4% 37.7% 46.0% 37.2% 37.8% 40.6% 49.8% 44.9% 55.9% 33.9% 39.6% 31.7% 48.8% 40.1% 31.2% 44.4% 41.4% 43 7 18 11 7 7 8 4 6 13 16 7 6 9 22 11 10 11 32 8.6% 7.7% 11.7% 7.8% 5.9% 10.4% 9.3% 6.8% 5.7% 10.2% 9.3% 6.9% 7.1% 8.4% 8.3% 12.0% 7.5% 7.8% 9.1% Yes No Field Research Corporation Table 15 15