THE UNITED NATIONS COMMISSION ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR DEVELOPMENT 14 TH SESSION May 2011 Geneva. Contribution by ITU

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1 THE UNITED NATIONS COMMISSION ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR DEVELOPMENT 14 TH SESSION Geneva Contribution by ITU Measuring the Information Society Ms. Susan Teltscher Head, ICT Data and Statistics Division Telecommunication Development Bureau The views presented here are the contributor's and do not necessarily reflect the views and the position of the United Nations or the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

2 Measuring the Information Society Commission on Science and Technology for Development, 14 th session 23-27, Geneva Susan Teltscher Head, ICT Data and Statistics Division Telecommunication Development Bureau International Telecommunication Union International Telecommunication Union

3 The need for quantitative evidence 2015: WSIS review will assess global progress towards the information society, in line with target date set by MDGs and Broadband Commission Need indicators on ICT access, use and impact Need ICT data to monitor the digital divide WSIS outcome documents call for measurement of information society to track progress and inform policy International community is addressing this issue through the Partnership on Measuring ICT for Development 22

4 Global initiative to improve internationally comparable ICT statistics for effective policy making Launched in 2004 at UNCTAD XI - response to WSIS call to measure the information society Major achievement: core list of 50 ICT indicators, endorsed by UN Statistical Commission Members ITU OECD UNCTAD UNDESA UNESCO Institute for Statistics World Bank ECA ECLAC ESCAP ESCWA Eurostat Steering Committee: ITU, UNCTAD, ECLAC 3

5 ECOSOC Resolution 2008/3 based on CSTD recommendation Notes the lack of indicators needed to measure progress towards achieving the targets as set out in section B of the Plan of Action adopted by the WSIS at its first phase Recommends that the Partnership on Measuring ICT for Development consider the creation of benchmarks and indicators, including impact indicators, for further consideration and decision by the Statistical Commission, in order to track progress towards the attainment of the specific goals and targets set out in the outcome documents of the WSIS 4

6 Monitoring the WSIS targets background and stakeholders WSIS targets go beyond the core list of ICT indicators established by the Partnership and endorsed by the UNSC - need for specific quantitative indicators to monitor and assess impact related to the WSIS targets ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Development Report (WTDR) 2010 reviewed the WSIS targets 5

7 WSIS mid-term review based on measurable indicators ITU WTDR 2010 First global effort to measure progress towards the achievement of the targets agreed at the WSIS Mid-term review based on quantitative indicators Policy recommendations to help achieve the targets by 2015 Basis for Partnership Task Group on Measuring the WSIS Targets launched at WSIS Forum 2010 Main authors: ITU, UNESCO, WHO and UNDESA, as well as civil society 6

8 Statistical framework developed by the Partnership: Measuring the WSIS Targets" A response to the WSIS call to develop indicators for measuring the information society A concrete list of 50 indicators to monitor the 10 WSIS targets A practical tool for policy makers and data producers in developing countries The main reference document for the final review of progress made in 2015 Launched at WSIS Forum

9 Global ICT trends 5.3 billion mobile cellular subscriptions 80 Mobile cellular telephone subscriptions 70 Internet users Fixed telephone lines 60 Mobile broadband subscriptions Fixed broadband subscriptions Per 100 inhabitants * Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database. Note: 2010 data are May estimates

10 The mobile miracle Mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 inhabitants Number of mobile cellular subscriptions Developed World Developing (2.2 billion) Per 100 inhabitants % 45% Developed Developing In 2010, access to mobile networks is available to more than 90% of the population Key applications: m-health, m- business, m-banking, m-government Mobiles are reaching saturation in developed countries Future: mobile Web 2010 (5.3 billion) 73% 27% Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database. Note: 2010 data are May estimates

11 Mobile phone economic impact Mostly anecdotal evidence so far Jensen (2007 study on fishermen in India): mobile phone use can lower prices (reduces price dispersion) and increases profits Mbiti and Weil (2010): competitive pressure from M-Pesa accounts for about 60% of the drop in prices in the Kenyan domestic transfer market Better data on use of mobile phones are needed for impact analysis

12 Two billion Internet users but too few in Africa Global Internet users have doubled in the past five years Only 1 out of 5 people in developing countries are online, and only 1 out of 10 in Africa Future: mobile Internet Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database. Note: 2010 data are May estimates

13 Internet: the importance of speed 12

14 Per 100 inhabitants Digital divide broadband divide Fixed broadband penetration Developed World Developing 24.6 End 2010 penetration rates: - world 8% - developed countries 24.6% - developing countries 4.4% - major regional differences Subscriptions have more than doubled in past five years Developing countries share is increasing but still huge divide Source: ITU May World 2011Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database. Note: 2010 data are estimates. 13

15 Broadband impact Economic impact : reasonable evidence Social and cultural impact : little evidence (anecdotal) Environmental impact: emerging evidence 14 Need reliable statistics

16 Broadband impact recent ITU research ITU Report: Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2010/11 Chapter 2: The Impact of Broadband on the Economy Impact on productivity Employment impact Impact on consumer surplus Research mainly in developed countries due to lack of data Some developing countries case studies included

17 Broadband (un)affordability In developing countries, the monthly cost of fixed broadband dropped by over 50% from This corresponded to about 112% of average monthly GNI per capita ITU ICT Price Basket 2010 Fixed broadband sub-basket by level of development Fixed broadband sub-basket 2008 Fixed broadband sub-basket % In developed countries, fixed broadband prices corresponded to about 1.5% of average monthly income in % Developed countries Percentage change (drop) between 2008 and 2010 Developing countries Source: ITU World May Telecommunication/ICT 2011 Indicators database. 16

18 From fixed to wireless broadband Mobile broadband penetration Very high growth rates, especially Europe and the US Penetration has surpassed fixed broadband in G technologies are emerging Per 100 inhabitants Developed World Developing Developing countries need to catch up high potential Promising: mobile Internet Source: ITU May World 2011Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database. Note: 2010 data are estimates; data refer to subscriptions with access to mobile broadband networks. 17

19 Mobile Internet Non-existent at time of WSIS New devices are mushrooming (smart phones, tablet computers etc.) Mobile applications (across all sectors) are driving demand Implications: Subscriptions to 3G networks (broadband) growing exponentially Internet users shift from fixed to mobile access, numbers will grow quickly Future measurement challenges impacting all sectors 18

20 Conclusions There is no time to lose: MDGs, WSIS and Broadband Commission targets are just around the corner 2015 A major push for data collection is required by countries to review progress, evaluate impact and identify areas that need further action The tools are there: Partnership core indicators and WSIS targets measurement framework can be used to collect data for impact analysis 1919

21 Forum for discussion: ITU WTIM World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Meeting (WTIM) Global forum held annually, bringing together ICT Ministries, regulators, National Statistical Office, experts on ICT measurement 8 th WTIM 2010 (Geneva, November): two sessions on measuring ICT impact jointly with OECD and EC; two Partnership sessions 9 th WTIM 2011: 7-9 December 2011, hosted by Government of Mauritius 2020

22 More information indicators[at]itu.int 21