Q1 2014: Key Statistics and Market Review

Transcription

1 Aerospace & Defense Q1 2014: Key Statistics and Market Review Q Aerospace & Defense Outpaces the Broader Market for the Year; 2014 Industry Outlook Positive Aerospace & Defense Annual Sector Highlights Top Performers of 2013 Commercial Aerospace Defense Primes Defense Technology Federal Services Airbus Group 97.1% Thales 85.8% Curtiss-Wright 89.6% Dynamics Research 96.2% Ducommun 84.4% Boeing 81.1% Esterline 60.3% Engility 73.4% Boeing 81.1% Northrop Grumman 69.6% Kratos D&SS 52.7% NCI 41.2% B/E Aerospace 76.2% Safran SA 61.4% Honeywell 44.0% Booz Allen Hamilton 37.6% Barnes Group 70.6% Lockheed Martin 61.1% Harris Corporation 42.6% CACI International 33.1% Source: Capital IQ; Percentages equate to 2013 annual increase in stock price performance Aerospace & Defense M&A Commentary & Trends: 2013 Review and 2014 Outlook The M&A market in the aerospace and defense industry experienced bifurcated activity in 2013 Strong activity on the commercial aerospace side is being driven by increasing build rates and backlogs at major OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers. A combination of airline profitability, high load factors and increasing passenger traffic, particularly in the emerging markets, is keeping demand for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft strong. In order to meet this aggressive growth profile and record orderbook, OEMs are increasingly focused on fewer, more reliable suppliers who can meet stringent delivery conditions and increasing build rates. As a result, suppliers are increasingly diversifying their capabilities and programs. This should lead to continued consolidation in the sector in 2014, through both private equity interest in building platform investments and cash rich strategic acquirers. Balanced against a strong commercial aerospace market was dampened transaction volume in the defense sector. The realities of sequestration, along with general budgetary uncertainty going forward, continued to influence the internal planning of top executives and alter future growth prospects at many firms. Internal focus on organic growth initiatives, cost cutting measures and declining profitability left little room for M&A action. Renewed optimism for a comprehensive budget deal in Washington may lead to a rise in transaction activity in Key Considerations for Acquirers + Diversify platform content + Opportunities on next generation programs + Fortify customer relationships + Enhance end-to-end production capabilities + Develop geographic footprint + Create efficiencies in processes CLOSER INTEGRATION TO OEMS 1 Lincoln International DEALREADER Aerospace & Defense 2014 Lincoln International LLC

2 Q Selected Public Company Analysis Commercial Aerospace Market Valuation of Selected Commercial Aerospace Companies Airbus Group $ $ $ % $ 57,128 $ 55, x 9.3x 0.70x 7.6x Barnes Group % 1,956 2, x 9.1x 1.89x 10.0x The Boeing Company % 97,524 92, x 11.3x 1.06x 11.0x B/E Aerospace % 8,662 10, x 14.0x 2.88x 13.9x CPI Aerostructures % x 10.4x 1.99x 13.1x Ducommun % x 7.6x 0.84x 7.7x GKN plc % 10,636 12, x 10.0x 1.01x 8.6x HEICO Corporation % 3,020 3, x 16.1x 3.45x 15.5x LMI Aerospace % x 9.8x 1.12x 9.5x Meggitt PLC % 6,802 7, x 12.2x 2.93x 10.2x Precision Castparts Corp % 36,744 40, x 13.9x 4.21x 14.0x Senior plc % 2,043 2, x 11.6x 1.66x 10.0x TransDigm Group Incorporated % 8,867 14, x 16.5x 7.03x 16.3x Triumph Group % 3,297 4, x 8.5x 1.28x 7.9x Zodiac Aerospace % 9,755 10, x 12.8x 2.01x 12.0x Mean 88.9% 2.31x 11.5x 2.27x 11.1x Median 91.2% 1.71x 11.3x 1.89x 10.2x Adjusted Mean 90.5% 2.05x 11.5x 2.03x 11.0x Operating Statistics of Selected Commercial Aerospace Companies Airbus Group 9.7% 92.1% 16.2% $ 80,108 $ 6,031 $ 79,570 $ 7,312 (0.2x) 7.5% 9.2% Barnes Group 7.1% 21.5% 42.6% 1, , x 16.8% 19.0% The Boeing Company 10.4% 8.2% 6.0% 86,623 8,172 86,623 8,386 (0.7x) 9.4% 9.7% B/E Aerospace 20.6% 23.9% 12.9% 3, , x 20.6% 20.8% CPI Aerostructures 21.7% 21.5% 3.5% x 16.4% 15.3% Ducommun 20.7% 24.4% 0.2% x 11.0% 10.9% GKN plc 14.4% 18.4% 7.9% 10,492 1,217 12,038 1, x 11.6% 11.8% HEICO Corporation 17.8% 19.8% 12.4% 1, , x 21.8% 22.3% LMI Aerospace 20.1% 20.1% 42.8% x 12.4% 11.8% Meggitt PLC 14.3% 18.8% 0.5% 2, , x 26.1% 28.6% Precision Castparts Corp. 18.3% 21.8% 21.0% 9,537 2,872 9,525 2, x 30.1% 30.1% Senior plc 11.1% 14.7% 7.5% 1, , x 16.4% 16.6% TransDigm Group Incorporated 32.5% 28.0% 13.2% 1, , x 44.1% 43.1% Triumph Group 17.7% 19.1% 4.1% 3, , x 15.0% 16.2% Zodiac Aerospace 23.7% 31.0% 18.6% 5, , x 16.6% 16.7% Mean 17.3% 25.6% 14.0% 2.0x 18.4% 18.8% Median 17.8% 21.5% 12.4% 1.6x 16.4% 16.6% Adjusted Mean 17.0% 21.8% 12.8% 1.9x 17.3% 17.7% 160% 14.0x 150% 130% LI Commercial Aerospace Index 48.3% 12.0x 10.0x 11.4x 9.3x 8.8x 8.7x 9.3x 10.1x 10.5x 11.1x 110% 4.0x 90% 2.0x 0.0x LI Commercial Aerospace Index Dow Jones Industrial Average S&P 500 LI Commercial Aerospace Index Note: LI Commercial Aerospace Index: Airbus Group, Barnes Group, Boeing, B/E Aerospace, CPI Aerostructures, Ducommun, GKN, HEICO, LMI Aerospace, Meggitt, Precision Castparts Corporation, Senior plc, TransDigm Group Incorporated, Triumph Group and Zodiac Aerospace 2 Lincoln International DEALREADER Aerospace & Defense 2014 Lincoln International LLC

3 Q Selected Public Company Analysis Defense Primes Market Valuation of Selected Defense Primes BAE Systems plc $ 7.80 $ 5.38 $ % $ 22,855 $ 24, x 8.4x 0.79x 6.3x The Boeing Company % 97,524 92, x 11.3x 1.06x 11.0x General Dynamics % 34,990 33, x 7.9x 1.08x 7.9x Lockheed Martin % 47,005 50, x 9.2x 1.11x 9.2x Northrop Grumman % 24,892 25, x 7.1x 1.05x 7.2x Raytheon Co % 28,315 29, x 8.7x 1.24x 8.8x Safran SA % 30,136 32, x 12.6x 1.62x 9.9x Thales SA % 13,266 12, x 7.9x 0.66x 6.5x Mean 94.1% 1.12x 9.1x 1.08x 8.4x Median 94.3% 1.07x 8.5x 1.07x 8.3x Adjusted Mean 94.3% 1.08x 8.9x 1.06x 8.3x Operating Statistics of Selected Defense Primes BAE Systems plc (7.4%) (11.4%) (4.2%) $ 25,435 $ 2,962 $ 31,213 $ 3, x 11.6% 12.6% The Boeing Company 10.4% 8.2% 6.0% 86,623 8,172 86,623 8,386 (0.7x) 9.4% 9.7% General Dynamics (1.3%) (2.1%) (0.9%) 31,218 4,241 31,218 4,241 (0.3x) 13.6% 13.6% Lockheed Martin (0.2%) 4.2% (3.9%) 45,358 5,495 45,358 5, x 12.1% 12.1% Northrop Grumman (6.1%) 2.7% (1.1%) 24,980 3,663 24,661 3, x 14.7% 14.5% Raytheon Co. (2.0%) 4.8% (2.9%) 23,706 3,381 23,706 3, x 14.3% 14.1% Safran SA 12.2% 17.6% 16.2% 18,712 2,599 20,096 3, x 13.9% 16.4% Thales SA 4.8% 28.6% 8.2% 18,484 1,604 19,378 1,950 (0.3x) 8.7% 10.1% Mean 1.3% 6.6% 2.2% 0.1x 12.3% 12.9% Median (0.8%) 4.5% (1.0%) 0.2x 12.8% 13.1% Adjusted Mean 0.9% 5.9% 0.9% 0.2x 12.5% 12.8% 1 160% LI Defense Primes Index 63.3% 10.0x 6.6x 5.7x 5.8x 5.9x 6.8x 7.8x 8.5x 4.0x 2.0x 0.0x LI Defense Primes Index LI Defense Primes Index Dow Jones Industrial Average S&P 500 Note: LI Defense Primes Index: BAE Systems, Boeing, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, Safran and Thales 3 Lincoln International DEALREADER Aerospace & Defense 2014 Lincoln International LLC

4 Q Selected Public Company Analysis Defense Technology Market Valuation of Selected Defense Technology Companies API Technologies $ 3.86 $ 2.31 $ % $ 180 $ x 10.8x 1.17x 10.2x AeroVironment % x NMF 2.21x NMF Comtech Telecommunications % x 1.10x 6.9x Cubic Corporation % 1,343 1, x 10.4x 0.91x 11.6x Curtiss-Wright Corporation % 2,883 3, x 10.7x 1.46x 9.9x Esterline Technologies % 3,299 3, x 10.9x 1.93x 10.7x FLIR Systems % 4,558 4, x 12.2x 3.01x 13.7x Harris Corporation % 7,527 8, x 8.2x 1.78x 8.8x Honeywell International % 70,417 71, x 11.0x 1.83x 11.0x Kratos Defense & Security Solutions % 411 1, x 12.0x 1.04x 10.1x L-3 Communications Holdings % 9,192 12, x 8.5x 0.99x 8.5x Mercury Systems % x NMF 1.48x NMF Rockwell Collins % 10,213 12, x 11.9x 2.67x 11.5x Teledyne Technologies % 3,452 3, x 11.9x 1.68x 11.7x Ultra Electronics Holdings plc % 2,254 2, x 11.0x 1.88x 10.6x Mean 92.3% 1.69x 10.6x 1.68x 10.4x Median 94.1% 1.68x 10.9x 1.68x 10.6x Adjusted Mean 92.9% 1.65x 10.7x 1.63x 10.4x Operating Statistics of Selected Defense Technology Companies API Technologies 46.2% 85.4% 4.9% $ 277 $ 28 $ 261 $ x 10.1% 11.5% AeroVironment (7.1%) (126.9%) (34.6%) 210 (1) NMF (0.3%) 1.8% Comtech Telecommunications (27.6%) (34.3%) (22.5%) (3.4x) 14.0% 15.9% Cubic Corporation 4.3% (0.5%) (1.5%) 1, , (0.9x) 8.8% 7.9% Curtiss-Wright Corporation 8.6% 9.5% 16.7% 2, , x 14.2% 14.8% Esterline Technologies 8.9% 10.6% (1.1%) 1, , x 17.8% 18.1% FLIR Systems 5.5% (2.9%) 4.1% 1, , (0.3x) 24.7% 21.9% Harris Corporation (4.0%) (4.5%) (7.0%) 4,978 1,085 4,978 1, x 21.8% 20.3% Honeywell International 6.5% 17.5% 3.7% 39,055 6,490 39,055 6, x 16.6% 16.6% Kratos Defense & Security Solutions 39.2% 39.6% 6.5% x 8.6% 10.3% L-3 Communications Holdings (1.9%) (4.9%) (3.9%) 12,629 1,472 12,629 1, x 11.7% 11.7% Mercury Systems 0.3% (37.1%) (4.6%) (6.1x) 3.4% 3.5% Rockwell Collins (0.6%) 2.9% (1.6%) 4,619 1,039 4,619 1, x 22.5% 23.2% Teledyne Technologies 14.4% 14.3% 9.9% 2, , x 14.1% 14.4% Ultra Electronics Holdings plc 4.6% 8.2% (3.1%) 1, , x 18.4% 17.8% Mean 6.5% (1.5%) (2.3%) 0.8x 13.8% 14.0% Median 4.6% 2.9% (1.5%) 1.3x 14.1% 14.8% Adjusted Mean 6.0% 1.4% (1.3%) 0.8x 14.0% 14.2% 150% LI Defense Technologies Index 39.5% 12.0x 130% 10.0x 7.7x 7.6x 7.7x 8.2x 8.5x 9.3x 9.8x 110% 4.0x 90% 2.0x 0.0x LI Defense Technologies Index Dow Jones Industrial Average S&P 500 LI Defense Technology Index Note: LI Defense Technology Index: API Technologies, AeroVironment, Comtech, Cubic, Curtiss-Wright, Esterline, FLIR Systems, Harris Corporation, Honeywell, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, L-3 Communications, Mercury Systems, Rockwell Collins, Teledyne and Ultra Electronics; API, AeroVironment and Mercury excluded from LTM EBITDA Multiple chart 4 Lincoln International DEALREADER Aerospace & Defense 2014 Lincoln International LLC

5 Q Selected Public Company Analysis Federal Services Market Valuation of Selected Federal Services Companies Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation $ $ $ % $ 2,558 $ 3, x 6.6x 0.67x 6.8x CACI International % 1,781 3, x 9.8x 0.88x 9.8x Dynamics Research Corporation % x 7.3x 0.73x 8.2x Engility Holdings % x 5.4x 0.63x 6.5x Leidos Holdings % 3,852 4, x 0.54x 10.1x ManTech International Corporation % 1,095 1, x 5.9x 0.44x 6.2x NCI % x 4.5x 0.27x 4.6x Science Applications International Corporation % 1,799 2, x 7.9x NA 10.3x The KEYW Holding Corporation % x NMF 2.22x NMF Mean 89.4% 0.74x 6.7x 0.80x 7.8x Median 92.1% 0.60x 6.3x 0.65x 7.5x Adjusted Mean 90.8% 0.60x 6.5x 0.65x Operating Statistics of Selected Federal Services Companies Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation 2.6% 20.0% (1.0%) $ 5,744 $ 582 $ 5,666 $ x 10.1% 9.9% CACI International 2.4% 6.4% (4.3%) 3, , x 8.9% 8.9% Dynamics Research Corporation 2.3% 1.4% (13.6%) x 9.6% 8.9% Engility Holdings (17.8%) (16.9%) (15.0%) 1, , x 11.0% 9.6% Leidos Holdings 0.5% (9.2%) 46.0% 10, , x 7.0% 5.4% ManTech International Corporation (0.1%) (8.7%) (7.6%) 2, , (0.3x) 7.2% 7.2% NCI (13.9%) (22.3%) (13.1%) x 5.8% 5.9% Science Applications International Corporation NA NA (8.4%) 4, NA x 6.3% NA The KEYW Holding Corporation 49.7% 62.7% 38.7% x 7.9% 8.0% Mean 3.2% 4.2% 2.4% 1.8x 8.2% 8.0% Median 1.4% (3.7%) (7.6%) 1.3x 7.9% 8.4% Adjusted Mean (1.1%) (1.2%) (1.3%) 1.7x 8.1% 8.1% LI Federal Services Index 28.0% 6.2x 130% 5.8x 5.8x 5.9x 5.6x 5.5x 110% 5.4x 5.2x 5.2x 5.4x 5.1x 5.3x 5.0x 90% 4.8x 4.6x LI Federal Services Index Dow Jones Industrial Average S&P 500 LI Federal Services Index Note: LI Federal Services Index includes Booz Allen Hamilton, CACI International, Dynamics Research Corporation, Engility, Leidos, ManTech International, NCI, Inc., SAIC and The KEYW Holding Corporation; SAIC excluded from both LTM Stock Price and EBITDA Multiple charts; KEYW excluded from LTM EBITDA Multiple chart 5 Lincoln International DEALREADER Aerospace & Defense 2014 Lincoln International LLC

6 Selected 2013 Lincoln International Aerospace & Defense Activity Sale Northeast Ship Repair (USA) from J.F Lehman & Company (USA) to Plexus Capital (USA) and NewSpring Capital (USA) 2013 Lincoln International s Global Footprint Los Angeles New York Chicago London Paris Madrid Milan Frankfurt Moscow Amsterdam Vienna Seoul Tokyo Beijing More than 160 professionals in the Americas More than 150 professionals in Europe and Asia Mumbai Offices in Brazil, China, India, Japan and a strategic partnership in South Korea São Paulo Indicates Lincoln International office Indicates strategic partnership and / or Lincoln International personnel About Lincoln International Lincoln International specializes in merger and acquisition advisory services, debt advisory services, private capital raising and restructuring advice on midmarket transactions. Lincoln International also provides fairness opinions, valuations and pension advisory services on a wide range of transaction sizes. With fifteen offices in the Americas, Asia and Europe, Lincoln International has strong local knowledge and contacts in key global economies. The firm provides clients with senior-level attention, in-depth industry expertise and integrated resources. By being focused and independent, Lincoln International serves its clients without conflicts of interest. More information about Lincoln International can be obtained at Senior Contacts in Lincoln s Global Aerospace & Defense Group Razmig Arzoumanian Managing Director Head of Aerospace & Defense rarzoumanian@ +1 (212) NEW YORK Christopher Gresh Vice President cgresh@ +1 (212) LONDON Teresa Clegg Director, European Aerospace & Defense tclegg@ +(44-207) LOS ANGELES Francis Tran Vice President ftran@ +1 (213) Advisory Directors WASHINGTON D.C. General Bob Edmonds Advisory Director LOS ANGELES William Van Vleet Advisory Director 6 Lincoln International DEALREADER Aerospace & Defense 2014 Lincoln International LLC