Andrea Martorana Tusa. Failure prediction for manifacturing industry

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1 Andrea Martorana Tusa Failure prediction for manifacturing industry

2 Event Sponsors Expo Sponsors Expo Light Sponsors

3 Speaker Info First name: Andrea. Last name: Martorana Tusa. Italian, working by Widex a danish company which manufactures hearing aids, as BI Specialist. Previously worked for 15 years as BI developer in an italian bank. Focused on database development, datawarehousing, cube development, reporting, data analysis, etc. Speaker at SQL Saturdays, and other community-driven events in Europe, (MS Cloud Summit, SQL Konferenz, SQL Nexus, SQL Days, Dataminds Connect...). Speaker in webinars for PASS Italian VC, DW/BI VC. Author for sqlservercentral.com, sqlshack.com, UGISS (User Group Italiano SQL Server).

4 Agenda R in SQL Server 2016 R for predictive maintenance Predicting failure. Build predictive models Scoring Output of R in SSMS, SSRS R in Power BI for data analysis and visualization

5 SQL Server Machine Learning Services SQL Server Machine Learning Services is an engine embedded into a SQL Server database, to deliver advanced analytics calculations and perfom data science operations. SQL Server Machine Learning Services is available from SQL Server Into the 2016 release it has been introducted the ability to execute R scripts. From 2017 release SQL Server can execute Python code too.

6 R R is the most common open source programming language for data analysis and statistics.

7 R in SQL Server Available from 2016 release. Two flavors. Options available during installation: R Services (In-Database) integrated directly into SQL Server engine. Microsoft R Server a standalone R server installed alongside with the database but externally. In addition there is a community edition Microsoft R Open and a community client Microsoft R Client.

8 R in SQL Server Scalability and performance Any R script is executed by calling a stored procedure, and the results are returned as tabular results directly to SQL Server, making it easy to generate or consume analytics from any application that can send a query to SQL Server. Performance optimization is based on scalability and parallelization. Two packages especially are available for handling resource governance inside SQL Server: RevoScaleR a set of functions for processing, analyzing, querying data with fast perfomances and scalability. RevoPemarR for writing custom parallel algorithms.

9 R in SQL Server Execute R script within SQL Server R scripts are invoked by a new system stored procedure sp_execute_external_script to embed R (or Python) code into a format suitable for SQL Server. The stored procedure executes the scripts and retrieves the outcome. Some parameters are passed to the sp in order to define, language, context, input data, etc

10 R in SQL Server EXEC =N'R', =N'SELECT 1 AS hello' WITH RESULT SETS (([hello] int not null)); GO Language declaration R script Input data Resultset from R The above R script generates the following outcome

11 R in SQL Server EXEC =N'R', =N'SELECT 1 AS hello' WITH RESULT SETS (([hello] int not null)); N.B.! All the output from R to SQL Server, must return the data as a data.frame! Any other type of object that you generate in your script must be converted to a data frame if you want to output it as part of the stored procedure results.

Predictive maintenance for manifacturing industry Predictive modeling is the process of using advanced statistics and probability algorithms to predict outcomes, based on a pretrained and built model

12 Predictive maintenance for manifacturing industry Predictive modeling is the process of using advanced statistics and probability algorithms to predict outcomes, based on a pretrained and built model or function. * Predictive maintenance solutions can provide key performance indicators about health state and lifecycle for products in manifacturing industries. Some use cases could be: Aircraft component failure Wind turbine failure Circuit breaker failure And, of course.. Hearing aids * Tomaz Kastrun, Julie Koesmarno. SQL Server 2017 Machine Learning Services with R. Packt Publisher

13 Predictive maintenance for manifacturing industry R & SQL Server can be used together for building a predictive model to address your business needs. For example, we want to predict the probability of failure for a bicycle component produced by the company Adventure Works. A predictive maintenance solution helps reducing repair costs and increasing the lifecycle of our cycles. These models also give insights on correlations among data, helping to reveal patterns or outliers in the production process.

14 Predictive maintenance for manifacturing industry Tipical problems addressed by a predictive maintenance solution: Predict Time to Failure (TTF) for a device Predict which component has the highest likelihood to fail Predict if an asset will fail in different time windows

15 Predictive model for R in SQL Server A predictive model for R in SQL Server is made of the following steps: Data collection Data preparation Prepare a model (for example for regression) Train the model Perform scoring and predictions Visualization output

16 Data collection The common data elements for failure and predictive maintenance calculations are: Failure data history Maintenance history Device conditions and usage, for example data collected by sensors Device technical specifications

17 Data preparation Before getting into any type of analytical process, usually some operations must be performed on data in order to have it the way we need: cleansing, normalization, pre-processing, aggregation, mapping

18 Prepare a Model A model is based on R statistical and analytical functions to explore data and relationships between two or more variables. Usually the first relationship to be investigated is linear regression, i.e. the nature of relationship between two variables. It serves to estimate the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of an asset. Other common models are: Binary classification. The task of classifying the elements of a given set into two groups (predicting which group each one belongs to) on the basis of a classification rule. Multi-class classification. The task of classifying elements of a given set into three or more classes. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC). A curve created by plotting the true positive rate against the false positive rate at various threshold settings. It is used to calculate the accuracy of a test.

19 Train a Model A model must learn by data. Training a model means makes it smart enough to elaborate predictions by passing datasets in the same format of the test one. To achieve the task, tipically a percentage of the dataset is used for training/test/validation. The ratio between test and production data varies according to your business model, experience, data quality. It could be 60/40, 70/30, etc A good practice is to test more than one model and analyze the returned values to choose the one that performs best. Once the model is set up and trained, it s convenient to save it as stored procedure and store the data in a table for further reuse.

20 Prediction and scoring Once the model is set up it s possible to start with predictions. Call a stored procedure passing parameters and get predicted values. Values are numbers which can be expressed as score, a real number between 0 and 1. By default, scoring values above 0.5 are labelled positive and below negative. But the threshold can be modified according to our needs, experience, sensibility

21 Demo Linear regression model in R studio Descriptive statistics with R in SSMS Linear regression model with R in SSMS Multivariate analysis Analysis of Variance Binary and multi class models Plotting output in Reporting Services Models and output in Power BI

22 Example of architecture for a predictive maintenance solution Continuous cycle of: - data ingestion - feature generation - prediction - visualization

23 Q&A Thanks

24 References Tomaz Kastrun, Julie Koesmarno. SQL Server 2017 Machine Learning Services with R. Packt

Andrea Martorana Tusa. T-SQL Advanced: Grouping and Windowing

Andrea Martorana Tusa. T-SQL Advanced: Grouping and Windowing Andrea Martorana Tusa T-SQL Advanced: Grouping and Windowing Sponsor Organizzatori GetLatestVersion. it Speaker info First name: Andrea. Last name: Martorana Tusa. Italian, working by Widex a danish company