Diagnosing the coupled stratosphere- troposphere stationary wave response to climate change in CCMs
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1 Diagnosing the coupled stratosphere- troposphere stationary wave response to climate change in CCMs Thanks to Lei Wang, Paul Kushner University of Toronto 2009/2/08 Chris Fletcher, Heiner Körnich, Michael Sigmond, Mingfang Ting U. of Toronto U. of Stocmholm U. of Toronto LDEO CCM data from CMAM Team, AM Team and John Austin (GFDL)
2 Outline Introduction; Stationary wave model validation; Diagnosing climate change simulations; Summary.
3 Introduction to stationary waves Stationary wave: zonally asymmetric component of the atmospheric climatological flow; Play a large role in stratospheric variability, transports of heat and momentum, and BDC (Rosenlof and Holton 99, Yulaeva et al. 994); Changes in stationary wave activity from climate forcing can potentially lead to changes in BDC. (McLandress and Shepherd, 2009)
4 Motivation Stationary wave field will be significantly influenced by climate change (e.g. as revealed by CMAM CCMVal- REF2 runs): Zonal mean basic state; Zonally asymmetric diabatic / transient-eddy forcing. Both basic state and diabatic heating account for the stationary wave response to climate change. First realistic stationary wave model attempting to capture both troposphere and stratosphere.
5 Stationary Wave Model and CCM Data We developed a nonlinear baroclinic stationary wave model (Ting and Yu, 998) with a wellresolved stratosphere: Based on GFDL dry dynamical core; Stationary wave solution is obtained by imposing linear damping and increasing diffusion; Zonal mean basic state is prescribed; Zonally asymmetric forcing includes topography and diabatic heating. CMAM CCMVal- REF2 Simulation (Eyring et al. 2007): Januaries of and , are chosen to represent past and future winter time climate, individually; AMTRAC CCMVal-2 REF-B2 Simulation (Austin, J. at GFDL): and
6 Zonal mean response to climate change CMAM AMTRAC Contour Interval: 0, 2 m/s Past Change 60S0S 0 0N60N 60S0S 0 0N60N S0S 0 0N60N 60S0S 0 0N60N Strengthening in the mid-lat. lower stratosphere zonal wind and poleward shift of tropospheric jet happen in both hemispheres and both CCMs; Weakening in NH highlat. upper stratosphere is common in both CCMs (and among many other CCMVal2 models).
7 2 E 2 E Past Change 8 W E 2 E N E 90 E 8 W W E N 2 W E W 8 W W 8 W E E 2 W 2 E N 90 E E E 20hPa CMAM SWM N W W W W W 2 W 2 W Contour Interval: 6, 0 6 m 2 /s
8 2 E Past Change 8 W E 2 E 90 E 2 E 8 W W E 2 W E E W 8 W W 8 W E E 2 W 2 E 90 E E E W W 0hPa CMAM SWM W W W 2 W 2 W Contour Interval: m 2 /s
9 Zonal Mean Basic State vs. Diabatic Heating Past Zonal Mean Past Heating ΔZM ΔZM+ΔH Future Zonal Mean Past Heating ΔH Future Zonal Mean Future Heating
10 - ΔZM+ΔH ΔZM ΔH SWM N E 80 90W E 80 90W E 80 90W 0 SWM N Contour Interval: 0 6 m 2 /s E 80 90W E 80 90W E 80 90W 0
11 Wave forcing response to climate change CMAM CMAM SWM SWM N 60N 90N 0 0N 60N 90N 0 0N 60N 90N 0 0N 60N 90N Past Change ΔZM+ΔH ΔZM
12 AMTRAC ΔZM+ΔH ΔZM SWM 0 N SWM 60 N Contour Interval: 0 6 m 2 /s E 80 90W E 80 90W E 80 90W E 80 90W 0
13 Wave forcing response to climate change AMTRAC SWM SWM SWM N 60N 90N 0 0N 60N 90N 0 0N 60N 90N 0 0N 60N 90N Change ΔZM+ΔH ΔZM ΔH 0
14 Summary A stationary wave model is tested with CCM data, and is able to largely reproduce stationary waves in CCMs when forced by zonal mean states, topography, and zonally asymmetric diabatic heating. This diagnostic tool is used to decompose the stationary wave response to climate change. Changes in the zonal mean state play a major role in explaining the total response.
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