Integration of Economic and Construction Outlooks: A Case Study. Lorenz Kleist Consultant October 6, 2009

Transcription

1 Integration of Economic and Construction Outlooks: A Case Study Lorenz Kleist Consultant October 6, 2009

2 The Client The European Rental Association (ERA) ERA is a young European association ERA represents dynamically growing European equipment rental industry

3 ERA s Information Needs Background Significant impact and dynamic growth of European rental industry, but... Lack of comparable data for European countries Scarcity of official data at Eurostat and national statistical agencies No information on market penetration/potential available Client Objective: serving as the source on the European equipment rental industry European coverage Comparable data Market Sizing Understand Economic Impact Short-term forecasts per country Assignment of IHS Global Insight Analysis of market potential and penetration Annual data and forecasts updates IHS Global Insight capabilities and references Global Construction Outlook Reports on the North- American rental market (ARA) Projects for major equipm. manufacturers Design and execution of industry surveys Macro forecasts and risk assessment Data knowledge Neutrality, Integrity and Internationality

4 Approach Two Project Phases Phase I: Evaluation of data sources Interviews with industry experts Development of indicators Proposal for detailed study Phase II: Design and execution of web-based survey Additional data collections Detailed analysis and report writing

5 Phase II Work Programme Coverage of 11 European Countries (BE, DE, DK, FI, FR, ES, IT, NL, NO, SE, U.K.) Execution of Rental Survey for rental companies, manufacturers and contactors Dimensions of Analysis Economic Environment Market Size per country Short-Term Forecast of revenues Market Penetration Rates Additional Indicators (avg. fleet age, Top equipment types...) Based on common methodology

6 Phase II Data Sources European Equipment Rental Survey 2008 Rental companies Manufacturers Contractors Other Data Sources Official Statistics Eurostat and national agencies Production databases Company databases Company interviews Additional web research European Analysis IHS Global Insight Data Global Construction Outlook Driver Forecasts Macroeconomic Context Industry Experts

7 Market Sizing Methodology Primary data from field research: Survey results and web-research 1 Establishment of national databases based on company size classes Official data from Eurostat and national statistical agencies. Company databases. 2 3 Integration of available data per country Scaling of survey results per country by combining results from 1 and 2

8 Forecast Methodology: Creating a Rental Demand Index 1 2 Starting Point: Identification of Key Drivers for the Equipment Rental Industry Assignment of weights to each indicator depending on national industry structures Application of latest IHS Global Insight driver forecasts per country Country 11 Country 10 Country 9 Country 8 Forecast of Rental Turnover Final adjustments by introducing industry knowledge on increased competitive pressure Country 7 Country 6 Country 5 Revenue Forecast Drivers Construction 70% Residential Construction Nonresidential Infrastructure Construction Nonresidential Structures Industrial Production growth: 10% Real GDP growth: 20% Country 4 Country 3 Country 2 Country 1 Percentage Change -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

9 Results Example Market Size per Country in million Total Turnover Rental Companies without Operator Rental Companies with Operator Other Comp. Providing Rental Services # Companies Rental Companies without Operator Rental Companies with Operator Other Comp. Providing Rental Services # Employed Persons Rental Companies without Operator Rental Companies with Operator Other Comp. Providing Rental Services # Depots, Rental Companies without Operator only Investments in Rental Equipment Investment per Turnover in million >250 Total Turnover (2007) Rental Companies without Operator Rental Companies with Operator Other Comp. Providing Rental Services # Companies Rental Companies without Operator Rental Companies with Operator Other Comp. Providing Rental Services (2007) # Employed Persons Rental Companies without Operator Rental Companies with Operator Other Comp. Providing Rental Services # Depots, Rental Companies without Operator (2007) only Investments in Rental Equipment (2007) Dimensions 11 countries Segments Renting of equipment without operator Renting of equipment with operator Other companies providing rental services 5 Company Size classes Indicators Turnover No. of companies Employed Persons No. of rental depots Investments

10 4 Concepts of Market Penetration Equipment-related penetration rates Equipment Sales Penetration (country, year) = Scaled Investments in Rental Equipment (country, year) Total Equipment Sales in Economy (country, year) Equipment Population Penetration (country, year) = Value of Equipment in the Rental Industry (country, year) Total Equipment Value in the Economy (country, year) Turnover-related penetration rates Construction Industry Penetration (country, year) = Rental Turnover (country, year) Total Output of the Construction Sector (country, year) Country Population Penetration (country, year) = Rental Turnover (country, year) Number of Inhabitants (country, year)

11 Phase II: Results Market Penetration European Overview on Market Penetration for 11 countries equipment-related turnover-related Equipment Sales Penetration Equipm. Population Penetration 2006 Investments [billion ] Total Sales [billion ] Sales Penetration 2007 Investments [billion ] Total Sales [billion ] Sales Penetration 2006 Value of Rental Fleet at replacement costs [billion ] Value of total Equipment in Economy [billion ] Equipment population Penetration 2007 Value of Rental Fleet at replacement costs [billion ] Value of total Equipment in Economy [billion ] Equipment population Penetration Construction Industry Penetration Country Population Penetration Turnover 2006 [billion ] Turnover 2007 [billion ] Turnover 2008 [billion ] Construction 2006 [billion ] Construction 2007 [billion ] Construction 2008 [billion ] Construction Industry Penetration 2006 Construction Industry Penetration 2007 Construction Industry Penetration 2008 Population 2006 [million] Population 2007 [million] Population 2008 [million] Market Penetration 2006 [ per person] Market Penetration 2007 [ per person] Market Penetration 2008 [ per person]

12 Combining Results Assessing Market Size, Growth Forecast and Penetration Circle = Current Equipment Rental Market Size 30% United Kingdom 25% Market Penetration Finland 20% Sweden 15% France Spain Denmark 10% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Germany 5% 0% Italy Example Results! Forecast Construction Market Potential Growth Rental Markets in Context Measuring Market Opportunities by Analysing market size Forecasting construction market growth Assessing market penetration

13 How Can We Support You? Lorenz Kleist Consultant