BlueSky Wildfire Smoke Prediction Model 2018 Issues
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1 Geophysical Disaster Computational Fluid Dynamics Center University of British Columbia Vancouver Dept. of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences Weather Forecast Research Team Directed by Prof. Roland Stull BlueSky Wildfire Smoke Prediction Model 2018 Issues Interagency Meeting on Wildfire Smoke Communications in British Columbia 5 Feb 2019 Roland Stull Rosie Howard, Roland Schigas, Henryk Modzelewski, Maggie Campbell, Mekdes Tessema Dept. of Earth, Ocean & Atmos. Sciences University of British Columbia (UBC) Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada Topics: 1. BlueSky Basics issues, hot spots and satellite images 3. BlueSky Diagnosis a) Operational 2018 issues b) Post-mortem diagnosis c) Computation Issues d) BlueSky / Hysplit Issues e) Reforecast Comparisons 4. Ops Plans for Research Colleagues: Tim Chui Frans Liqui Lung Nadya Moisseeva 1
2 1. BlueSky-System Framework (BSF) Basics 2000s BlueSky (RAINS) was created by USFS AirFire team in Seattle (Sim Larkin) and UWash Environ. & Forest Sci (Joel Dubowy). RAINS -> BSF BC Ministry of Environment (Steve Sakiyama) & AB Environment (David Lyder) contracted with UBC and Sonoma Tech Inc (STI) to Canadianize BlueSky UBC ran 4xdaily operational BlueSky/MM5 fcsts. for W. Canada, with BC & AB $ UBC BlueSky W. Can. fcsts. expand thru prairies. New Eastern Canada domain (ON $). Change from MM5 to WRF weather model UBC BlueSky expansion with DND/CSSP->CFS $ and BC, AB, SK, ON $ UBC BlueSky Canada-wide nested 12 & 4 km domains: BC, AB, SK, ON, NT $ 2
3 BlueSky Framework Components Weather 1) Get initial and boundary condition weather from US NCEP NAM. 2) Run the WRF numerical weather prediction model at UBC for Canadawide domain at 12 & 4* km gridspacing out to 3+ days. 3) Use BSF to convert WRF output to ARL format for input to hysplit Dispersion 1) Collect: ARL weather, new emissions, & carryover smoke from day before as input to: 2) Run the HYSPLIT puff-dispersion model to predict 3-D PM2.5 conc. 3) Compute graphics (kmz, web viewer, jpg, text) for surface PM2.5 & display on firesmoke.ca Fires 1) Satellite hotspots and ground reports are collected by CFS in CWFIS. 2) CWFIS adds Can. Fire Wx Index (fine-fuel moisture, duff moisture, drought code, initial spread index, buildup index, fire wx indices) & Fire Behavior Prediction (rate of spread, head-fire intensity, total & sfc fuel consump.) 3) These data grabbed by UBC. 4) UBC runs Smartfire to clump, associate & reconcile the data sources -> data stream. Emissions 1) Every 4 hours BSF grabs fire data from Smartfire. Has 48 hours spin up & 60+ hours of forecast 2) BSF Computes: fuel consumption, FEPS time profile, emissions, & plume-rise. 3) Create emission & plume-rise data as time series for each fire source to send to hysplit. 3
4 9 km grid UBC Example: 9 km Grid Example of WRF weather model output photo credit: David Siuta & Henryk Modzelewski 4
5 Carry-over from previous day Hysplit (Lagrangian) Dispersion Model Fire Each fire produces a puff every few seconds. Hysplit tracks the center location, concentration, Puff 1 and spread of each puff as it blows downwind. Each puff has its own age. Puffs are merged in the horiz. or split in the vertical as needed. To prevent calculation of an infinite number of puffs, if Npuff > maxpar, then lower-numbered (older) puffs are deleted. To prevent calculation of ancient puffs, those puffs older than KHmax are deleted. 3 2 ρ = air density, U = wind speed, L = length scale, μ = molecular viscosity, g = accel. due to gravity, T = temperature, z = height, θ=t+(9.8k/km) z. 5
6 Results in animated maps of Estimated Surface PM2.5 example from 2018 ops. example from 2018 ops. Example of BlueSky surface smoke concen. output Option to display with or without hotspots 6
7 2) BlueSky Issues Issues in 2018: Many fires in W. Canada Light-to-calm winds allowed smoke to accumulate for many days Results: More fires and more carryover smoke produced more total smoke puffs than BlueSky could handle Gross under-prediction of surface concentrations Loss of confidence by the public. Triggered an intense 4-month post-mortem effort at UBC to diagnose the root causes. 7
8 Case Study Period: 5-18 Aug 2018 Lots of fires (hot spots) Aug 2018 Hotspots
9 Case Study Period: 5-18 Aug 2018 Starts relatively clean, but has widespread dense smoke later. Lots of smoke 08 Aug
10 Case Study Period: 5-18 Aug 2018 Starts relatively clean, but has widespread dense smoke later. 09 Aug
11 Case Study Period: 5-18 Aug 2018 Starts relatively clean, but has widespread dense smoke later. 10 Aug
12 Case Study Period: 5-18 Aug 2018 Starts relatively clean, but has widespread dense smoke later. 15 Aug
13 Case Study Period: 5-18 Aug 2018 Starts relatively clean, but has widespread dense smoke later. 16 Aug
14 Case Study Period: 5-18 Aug 2018 Starts relatively clean, but has widespread dense smoke later. 17 Aug
15 Case Study Period: 5-18 Aug 2018 Starts relatively clean, but has widespread dense smoke later. 18 Aug
16 3) BlueSky Post-mortem Diagnosis Caught by Surprise: Nothing in BlueSky was changed from 2017 to But hints of problems had already existed in Conducted 4-month In-depth Post-mortem Case-study Analysis: Was it due to updates of our operating system? NO Was it due to changes in our computer hardware? NO Was it due to changes in our weather model output? NO Was it due to incomplete downloads of fire info from CWFIS? NO Was it due to incomplete SmartFire reconciliation? YES Why? BSF sometimes accessed older emissions, not most recent. Also, BSF was sometimes accessing incomplete or missing emission files. Why? SmartFire would sometimes hang on ground reports. Why? Some old ground-reported fires unclosed from April. Solution to this issue: Turn off ground reports. Speed up SmartFire processing. Delay BSF s access to the fire data. Note: STI provided compiled binaries of BlueSky to UBC. Bottom line: we have limited ability to fix intrinsic problems. 16
17 Case Study Period: 5-18 Aug 2018 Aug 2018 Hotspots SmartFire s Hotspots h old 4 h old 28 h old 17
18 BlueSky Diagnosis Re-forecast the case study with actual (correct) hot spots. Did the SmartFire fixes solve the problem? Not completely. Keep looking. Did the puff count exceed default maxpar = 175,000? YES. Did the puff age exceed default KHmax = 3 days? YES Why? Too many puffs = [carryover puffs from days before] + [new puff emissions]. Other ramifications of the above? YES, puff-splitting stopped. What was the result: too little smoke in the forecasts. Solutions? Increase maxpar and KHmax toward infinity. Drawbacks? Takes infinite time to run. Not timely for clients. Sensitivity Tests with different maxpar & KHmax values. Result: Optimum maxpar = 840,000. KHmax = 8 days. Compare BlueSky Reforecasts for new vs old parameters 18
19 20UTC on 09 Aug 2018 sfc sfc
20 20UTC on 10 Aug 2018 missing some fires sfc sfc old Column integrated new Column integrated
21 20UTC on 10 Aug 2018 missing some fires sfc sfc old Column integrated new Column integrated
22 20UTC on 18 Aug 2018 sfc sfc old Column integrated new Column integrated 22
23 20UTC on 18 Aug 2018 sfc sfc old Column integrated new Column integrated 23
24 4) Operations Plans for 2019 Feb - Mar 2019: Continue fine tuning parameters. Also verify with PM2.5 obs at surface (AB & BC). Apr - Oct 2019: Operational forecasts with new params. & careful checking daily by humans. BlueSky/Pipeline/Websky: 5) Research for 2019 Adapt new BlueSky from USFS/AirFire to Canada. In late summer begin operational runs, in parallel with old BlueSky Large Eddy Sims (LES) of Atmos. Response & Plume Rise: WRF-SFIRE LES, experiments by Nadya Moisseeva Dutch Atm. LES (DALES), experiments by Frans Liqui Lung & Dr. Rosie Howard 24
25 Large-Eddy Simulation (WRF-SFIRE): first experiments Research by Nadya Moisseeva at UBC. Simulating the prescribed burn: RxCADRE 2012 (Nov 10, 2012 Elgin Air Force Base, Florida) two large lots (shrub/forest).. Surface/air measurements of emissions, including H 2 O vapor 25
26 WRF-SFIRE Convective-Structures. LES runs by Nadya Moisseeva. Analysis by Rosie Howard at UBC 2 z (km) 1 Wind Outflow U-wind (m/s). Asymmetric region of influence at surface Wind 2 z (km) 1 Vertical Velocities (m/s). Modulation of 100 m diameter fire updrafts by 800 m diameter boundary-layer thermals 0 Wind Inflow Wind 0 Downwind Dist. (km) Downwind Dist. (km) 12 Fire Fire Ambient Wind Ambient Wind Fire wind Fire wind!26
27 DALES Fire-convection Structures. Analysis by Frans Liqui Lung at UBC & Delft Uniform Heat flux along fire line Absolute Concentrations. But emitted from very small portion of fire line. XXX!27
28 DALES Region of Influence. Analysis by Frans Liqui Lung at UBC & Delft Wind Out flow Wind Wind Inflow Wind Fire Upwind Region of Influence. Downwind Region of Influence. Mean wind is 2 m/s. Heat flux of fire plume is 8 K m/s. Heat flux of environment is 0.2 K m/s. Width of fire line is 100 meters. Region of influence is where smoke aloft is brought down to the surface by fire-induced circulations.!28
29 DALES Convective-Structures. Analysis by Frans Liqui Lung at UBC & Delft Relative (percentage) Concentration. Reveals backflow toward fireline at surface!29
30 DALES experiments with Stronger Winds & Fire Experiments by Rosie Howard, UBC crosswind averaged concentration U-wind speed Wind speed u = 8 m/s (3-hour spin up was run with this value and then final time from spin up used to initialize this 30-minute smoky run), plume heat flux = 20 K m/s (kinematic). 30
31 Thanks to our Sponsors NWT Research supported by BC Clean Air Research Fund 31
32 Geophysical Disaster Computational Fluid Dynamics Center University of British Columbia Vancouver Dept. of Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric Sciences Weather Forecast Research Team Directed by Prof. Roland Stull BlueSky Wildfire Smoke Prediction Model 2018 Issues Interagency Meeting on Wildfire Smoke Communications in British Columbia 5 Feb 2019 Roland Stull Rosie Howard, Roland Schigas, Henryk Modzelewski, Maggie Campbell Mekdes Tessema rstull@eoas.ubc.ca Topics: 1. BlueSky Basics issues, hot spots and satellite images 3. BlueSky Diagnosis a) Operational 2018 issues b) Post-mortem diagnosis c) Computation Issues d) BlueSky / Hysplit Issues e) Reforecast Comparisons 4. Ops Plans for Research Colleagues: Tim Chui Frans Liqui Lung Nadya Moisseeva Any Questions? 32
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