Worldwide telecoms market forecast

Transcription

1 Research Forecast Report Worldwide telecoms market forecast November 2013 Larry Goldman, Justin van der Lande and Atul Arora

2 2 Contents Slide no. 5. Executive summary 6. Revised 2012 service revenue and subscriber data 7. Executive summary 8. Key implications 9. Key implications [1] 10. Key implications [2] 11. Forecasts 12. Forecasts: Worldwide 13. Worldwide telecoms revenue will grow at a 2.7% CAGR in Growth in the APAC region will be the main driver of telecoms revenue worldwide 15. Non-messaging mobile data will contribute almost 82% of the overall increase in worldwide service revenue 16. Growth in the mobile subscriber base will drive the total number of subscribers to 10.5 billion worldwide by Most of the growth in subscriber numbers will occur in the emerging markets of APAC and EMEA 18. Telecoms capex will grow at a CAGR of 1.7% worldwide from 2012 to Capex growth will be strongest in APAC and LATAM, but APAC and EMEA will account for two-thirds of the total spend during the forecast period 20. Forecasts: North America 21. Revenue in North America will grow at a 2.3% CAGR during the forecast period Slide no. 22. The composition of telecoms service revenue in North America will continue to change 23. Growth in the mobile segment will dominate growth in the North American subscriber base 24. Capex in North America will grow at a 1.8% CAGR 25. Forecasts: Europe, the Middle East and Africa 26. Telecoms revenue in the EMEA region will grow at a CAGR of 1.2% during the forecast period 27. The contribution of voice services to total EMEA service revenue will decline from 47% to 39% during Non-mobile video services will have the fastest subscriber growth in EMEA, at a 5.8% CAGR 29. Telecoms capex will grow at a 0.5% CAGR in the EMEA region 30. Forecasts: Asia Pacific 31. APAC telecoms revenue will grow at a 4.0% CAGR over the forecast period 32. Mobile data contribution to total service revenue will be the same as mobile voice in the APAC region by Take-up of mobile and fibre-based fixed access services will contribute to growth in the APAC subscriber base 34. Capex will grow at a 2.5% CAGR in APAC, mainly driven by wireless network deployments 35. Forecasts: Latin America 36. Telecoms revenue in the LATAM region will grow at a 4.9% CAGR

3 3 Contents Slide no. 37. Growth in mobile services will dominate service revenue in LATAM, and mobile voice will continue to contribute strongly 38. The number of subscribers in the LATAM region will grow at a 4.6% CAGR 39. GDP growth in the LATAM region will lend support to investment in telecoms networks 40. Market drivers and inhibitors 41. The level of investment results from a net combination of factors 42. Growth in the take-up of smartphones and in the use of third-party apps will drive an increase in handset data usage 43. Network expansions are a result of the award of new licences, as well as mobile broadband take-up in developed and emerging markets 44. CSPs will invest in next-generation infrastructure and services to increase revenue and retain customers 45. Numerous factors are driving CSP network sharing 46. CSPs are still struggling to capture the full value of handset data 47. Business environment 48. Regulation will continue to be a key factor 49. Spending by CSPs will be cautious in areas of low economic growth 50. Market definition 51. Definition of geographical regions [1] 52. Definition of geographical regions [2] 53. Definition of geographical regions [3] 54. Data series definitions Slide no. 55. About the authors and Analysys Mason 56. About the authors 57. About Analysys Mason 58. Research from Analysys Mason 59. Consulting from Analysys Mason

4 Revenue (USD trillion) Worldwide telecoms market forecast Worldwide telecoms revenue will grow at a 2.7% CAGR in Worldwide telecoms revenue will grow from USD1.9 trillion in 2012 to USD2.1 trillion in 2017, at a 2.7% CAGR. In developed markets, CSPs will have to rely on mobile non-messaging data services and new services for growth, because mobile voice and, increasingly, mobile messaging services, will become commoditised. OTT service providers and device manufacturers are getting much of the value of content and apps, so CSPs will need to develop new business models in order to sustain revenue. Figure 2: Telecoms revenue, worldwide, [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] In emerging markets, CSPs can still recruit a significant number of unserved customers. Good economic growth is expected in these markets, but the rate will be lower than in the past 5 years, so CSPs will not be able to rely on a prosperity factor alone. CSPs will need to differentiate their services on factors other than price in order to win these customers

5 Revenue (USD billion) Worldwide telecoms market forecast Telecoms revenue in the EMEA region will grow at a CAGR of 1.2% during the forecast period Total telecoms revenue in the EMEA region is forecast to grow at a 1.2% CAGR from 2012 to This is primarily because of growth in the MEA region, as revenue in the WE market is expected to decline. Figure 13: Telecoms revenue, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, [Source: Analysys Mason, 2013] 700 The WE mobile market is saturated, and CSPs are struggling to increase revenue. It is becoming increasingly difficult for CSPs to compensate for the decline in revenue from legacy services with revenue from new services, and it will take time to establish alternatives. CSPs will therefore struggle to achieve top-line growth and will continue to compete for market share. Broadband markets in the EMEA region are becoming saturated, and there is upward pressure on the cost of providing fixed broadband through FTTx deployment. The rate of PSTN line loss has slowed primarily because of bundled services offers, but revenue loss will continue

6 56 About the authors Larry Goldman (Partner, Head of Telecoms Software) leads Analysys Mason s research on telecoms-specific software, including OSS, BSS and SDP. He co-founded OSS Observer, now part of Analysys Mason. Larry has over 25 years experience in telecoms software and network management. Before founding OSS Observer in 2003, he was OSS Program Director at RHK. Prior to joining RHK, he was Director of the Network Solutions Group at Tellabs, managed OSS development at GTE (now Verizon) and spent 12 years at Hewlett-Packard, where he was a manager responsible for HP OpenView development. Larry is a frequent speaker at industry conferences. Justin van der Lande (Senior Analyst) leads the Revenue Management, Analytics Software Strategies and CSP IT Strategies research programmes, which are part of Analysys Mason's Telecoms Software research stream. He specialises in business intelligence and analytics tools, the functionality of which cuts across all of the research programmes in this area. He also provides project management for large-scale projects within our Telecoms Software research. Justin has more than 20 years' experience in the communications industry in software development, marketing and research. He has held senior positions at NCR/AT&T, Micromuse (IBM), Granite Systems (Telcordia) and at the TM Forum. Justin holds a BSc in Management Science and Computer Studies from the University of Wales. Atul Arora (Research Analyst) is part of the telecoms software strategies team and focuses on the CSP IT Strategies programme, while also supporting other software research programmes. He joined Analysys Mason in 2013, following two 6-month internships focused on telecoms verticals, cloud services and mobile services in emerging markets. His previous experience includes published telecoms-focused country reports, mobile forecasts and project work related to spectrum distribution and management. He holds a MSc degree from University College London.

7 57 About Analysys Mason Knowing what s going on is one thing. Understanding how to take advantage of events is quite another. Our ability to understand the complex workings of telecoms, media and technology (TMT) industries and draw practical conclusions, based on the specialist knowledge of our people, is what sets Analysys Mason apart. We deliver our key services via two channels: consulting and research. Consulting Our focus is exclusively on TMT. We support multi-billion dollar investments, advise clients on regulatory matters, provide spectrum valuation and auction support, and advise on operational performance, business planning and strategy. We have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver tangible results for clients around the world. For more information, please visit Research We analyse, track and forecast the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises, as well as the software, infrastructure and technology delivering those services. Research clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence in addition to direct access to our team of expert analysts. Our dedicated Custom Research team undertakes specialised and bespoke projects for clients. For more information, please visit

8 58 Research from Analysys Mason We provide dedicated coverage of developments in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors, through a range of research programmes that focus on different services and regions of the world. Alongside our standardised suite of research programmes, our Custom Research team undertakes specialised, bespoke research projects for clients. The dedicated team offers tailored investigations and answers complex questions on markets, competitors and services with customised industry intelligence and insights. To find out more, please visit

9 59 Consulting from Analysys Mason For more than 25 years, our consultants have been bringing the benefits of applied intelligence to enable clients around the world to make the most of their opportunities. Our clients in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors operate in dynamic markets where change is constant. We help shape their understanding of the future so they can thrive in these demanding conditions. To do that, we have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver real results for clients around the world. Our focus is exclusively on TMT. We advise clients on regulatory matters, help shape spectrum policy and develop spectrum strategy, support multi-billion dollar investments, advise on operational performance and develop new business strategies. Such projects result in a depth of knowledge and a range of expertise that sets us apart. We help clients solve their most pressing problems, enabling them to go farther, faster and achieve their commercial objectives. To find out more, please visit

10 Published by Analysys Mason Limited Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Registered in England No All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any clientspecific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party.