Beyond the Smart Grid: The Enernet and Personal Energy. Guy AlLee, Research Scientist

Transcription

1 Beyond the Smart Grid: The Enernet and Personal Energy Guy AlLee, Research Scientist Oct 18, 2010

2 Agenda Historical Context Smart-Grids The Enernet Personal Energy Systems 2

3 Electrification: #1 Greatest Engineering Achievements of the 20 th Century¹ 1990 Wind competitive with Utility generation 1888 War of Current s ¹ Electric Utility as Natural Monopoly 1930s Hoover Dam, TVA, REA, Public Utility Holding Company Act of 1935, BPA 1970s EPRI, Energy Crisis, PURPA, Three Mile Island Power electronic systems expected to control 80% of all electricity used by Center for Power Electronic Systems (CPES) 2000s California Energy Crisis, Northeast Blackout, Energy Policy Act of

4 Agenda Historical Context Smart-Grids The Enernet Personal Energy Systems Transmission Metering Wind Solar Co-Generation Energy Storage 4

5 Smart Grid: Modernizing the Infrastructure Generation Transmission Distribution Consumption Energy + IT infrastructure Smart Grid Smarter Power, Buildings, Consumers 5

6 Challenges of the New Energy Economy 50% Return on Asset (ROA) Load Factor >30% Renewables on the Grid Transmission Capacity and Location pm 3pm 6pm 9pm 12am 3am 6am 9am 12pm Distribution (one-way) Looks Like Transmission (two-way) Low-Cost Energy Storage High Efficiency Renewable Generation Photovoltaic, Solar/Thermal, Wind, Biofuels Climate Modeling & Prediction Cyber-Security User-Centered Energy System Critical Mass Brave New Markets Open Systems & Standards 6

7 Agenda Historical Context Smart-Grids The Enernet Personal Energy Systems 7

8 Bob Metcalfe & the Enernet 8 Source Enernet: Internet Lessons for Solving Energy, Bob Metcalfe

9 Agenda Historical Context Smart-Grids The Enernet Personal Energy Systems 9 30 Years Ago, Computing Was Far Less Personal Far Away From Users Not Easily Accessible Professionals Did It Today, Computing Is Always At Our Fingertips Everywhere We Go Part of Our Lives Everyone Does It

10 From Grid to Personal Energy Systems Generation Transmission Distribution Smart P Meter e r s o n a l Load Power Data Smart Grid Why Personal Energy? Improve reliability & independence / security Increase availability of energy from renewable sources Improve energy availability in underserved markets Creates an open, horizontal environment for energy innovation and application E n e r g y S y s t e m s Smart Homes Local Generation Local Energy Storage 10

11 Examples of Personal Energy Systems Homes Unmanaged collection of devices Small number of people/devices Office buildings IT managed devices Integration with Building Management System Order of magnitude more people to deal with Community/Campus microgrids Collection of buildings Private/public data management Higher level aggregation Developed & developing economies 11

12 Personal Energy Systems Research Intel Home Dashboard Concept Monitors Performance Recommends Solutions DC AC Sets Goals PV Generation Multiport Converter D C Commercial Supports Implementation Grid Rewards Success Energy Storage EV IT Loads Microgrid, Control Plane, Sensors Office Loads (Picture courtesy EMerge Alliance) The Social Life of Devices 12

13 380VDC The New Standard EPRI DC Power Partners and EMerge Alliance Datacenter 28% more efficient than 208VAC 7% more efficient than 415VAC 15% less cost 33% less floor space 200%-1000% more reliable No Harmonics, Safer DC already the dominant design in containerized datacenters Photovoltaic, Wind, Lighting, Electric Vehicles, VFD Motors MV 480V AC UP Bypass S AC/DC DC/AC Chrg PDU 208V AC V AC/DC410V DC/DC VR DC PSU Rack Server VDC is the highest efficiency, cost effective solution

14 Summary Biggest inflection point since the PC, Internet & Cell Phone Electric grid is transforming (US target 2030) Benefits: increased efficiency (fewer new plants); accommodation of >30% non-dispatachable alternative sources (wind, solar); CO2 reduction new loads/sources PHEVs; increased security, resilience, sustainability Government regulation, incentives, social awareness & imperative to save the planet Our Industry is well positioned to lead the transformation Opportunity, goal Focus on the Edge: 1B Homes with 5-10 intelligent devices 1.5B people without power world-wide scalable solutions Intel Labs goal: establish the vision, lead in research, inform requirements, enable open standards & a horizontal industry Accelerate the transition pull 2030 into this decade Do for Energy what we did for Computing 14

15 15 Q&A

16 Legal Disclaimer INFORMATION IN THIS DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH INTEL PRODUCTS. NO LICENSE, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, BY ESTOPPEL OR OTHERWISE, TO ANY INTELLECTUAL PROPETY RIGHTS IS GRANTED BY THIS DOCUMENT. EXCEPT AS PROVIDED IN INTEL S TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF SALE FOR SUCH PRODUCTS, INTEL ASSUMES NO LIABILITY WHATSOEVER, AND INTEL DISCLAIMS ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTY, RELATING TO SALE AND/OR USE OF INTEL PRODUCTS INCLUDING LIABILITY OR WARRANTIES RELATING TO FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, MERCHANTABILITY, OR INFRINGEMENT OF ANY PATENT, COPYRIGHT OR OTHER INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHT. Intel may make changes to specifications and product descriptions at any time, without notice. All products, dates, and figures specified are preliminary based on current expectations, and are subject to change without notice. Intel, processors, chipsets, and desktop boards may contain design defects or errors known as errata, which may cause the product to deviate from published specifications. Current characterized errata are available on request. Performance tests and ratings are measured using specific computer systems and/or components and reflect the approximate performance of Intel products as measured by those tests. Any difference in system hardware or software design or configuration may affect actual performance. Intel, Intel Sponsors of Tomorrow. and Intel Sponsors of Tomorrow. Logo and the Intel logo are trademarks of Intel Corporation in the United States and other countries. *Other names and brands may be claimed as the property of others. Copyright 2010 Intel Corporation. 16

17 Risk Factors The above statements and any others in this document that refer to plans and expectations for the second quarter, the year and the future are forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Many factors could affect Intel s actual results, and variances from Intel s current expectations regarding such factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in these forward-looking statements. Intel presently considers the following to be the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the corporation s expectations. Demand could be different from Intel's expectations due to factors including changes in business and economic conditions; customer acceptance of Intel s and competitors products; changes in customer order patterns including order cancellations; and changes in the level of inventory at customers. Intel operates in intensely competitive industries that are characterized by a high percentage of costs that are fixed or difficult to reduce in the short term and product demand that is highly variable and difficult to forecast. Additionally, Intel is in the process of transitioning to its next generation of products on 32nm process technology, and there could be execution issues associated with these changes, including product defects and errata along with lower than anticipated manufacturing yields. Revenue and the gross margin percentage are affected by the timing of new Intel product introductions and the demand for and market acceptance of Intel's products; actions taken by Intel's competitors, including product offerings and introductions, marketing programs and pricing pressures and Intel s response to such actions; defects or disruptions in the supply of materials or resources; and Intel s ability to respond quickly to technological developments and to incorporate new features into its products. The gross margin percentage could vary significantly from expectations based on changes in revenue levels; product mix and pricing; start-up costs, including costs associated with the new 32nm process technology; variations in inventory valuation, including variations related to the timing of qualifying products for sale; excess or obsolete inventory; manufacturing yields; changes in unit costs; impairments of long-lived assets, including manufacturing, assembly/test and intangible assets; the timing and execution of the manufacturing ramp and associated costs; and capacity utilization. Expenses, particularly certain marketing and compensation expenses, as well as restructuring and asset impairment charges, vary depending on the level of demand for Intel's products and the level of revenue and profits. The majority of our non-marketable equity investment portfolio balance is concentrated in the flash memory market segment, and declines in this market segment or changes in management s plans with respect to our investment in this market segment could result in significant impairment charges, impacting restructuring charges as well as gains/losses on equity investments and interest and other. Intel's results could be impacted by adverse economic, social, political and physical/infrastructure conditions in countries where Intel, its customers or its suppliers operate, including military conflict and other security risks, natural disasters, infrastructure disruptions, health concerns and fluctuations in currency exchange rates. Intel s results could be affected by the timing of closing of acquisitions and divestitures. Intel's results could be affected by adverse effects associated with product defects and errata (deviations from published specifications), and by litigation or regulatory matters involving intellectual property, stockholder, consumer, antitrust and other issues, such as the litigation and regulatory matters described in Intel's SEC reports. An unfavorable ruling could include monetary damages or an injunction prohibiting us from manufacturing or selling one or more products, precluding particular business practices, impacting our ability to design our products, or requiring other remedies such as compulsory licensing of intellectual property. A detailed discussion of these and other factors that could affect Intel s results is included in Intel s SEC filings, including the report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 27, Rev. 5/7/10 17

18 18 Backup

19 Additional sources of information on this topic: Enernet: Internet Lessons for Solving Energy, Bob Metcalfe Plug and Play Electricity rgy_efficienc.php DC, An idea whose time has come and gone? _an_idea_whose_time_has_co.php Electricity 2.0: Unlocking the Power of the Open Energy Network SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age, The Climate Group on behalf of the Global e-sustainability Initiative (GeSI), World Energy Outlook 2009, International Energy Agency 19

20 The Impact of Consumers US Households: 113 Million US Automobiles: 250 Million Represent 35% of US Energy Consumption Portfolio Source: Energy information administration (EIA), International Energy Annual Review China Households: 360 Million * China Automobiles: 76 Million * Represent 28% of China Energy Consumption Portfolio * Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, February 25, 2010, Source: Energy information administration (EIA), International Energy Annual Review

21 A Vision of the Future User-centered Bulk Generation Local Generation /Caching Transmission Energy Data Market/Trading Distribution User-centered, empowering Comprehensive architecture Heavily instrumented, sensed & actuated edge Open Systems User-Empowered World of the Smart Grid 21

22 Personal Energy Systems Architecture A self-sustaining community managing local generation, storage and grid connectivity - Personal Energy (a la PC) - Standards Based, with broad industry support - Developed & Developing Economies Benefits to the Smart Grid - Accelerate the Smart Grid by Decade(s) - Scalable and Applicable Globally - Free up peak capacity - Data mining opportunities Research Topics - Net Positive buildings - Intelligent Control Plane - Interconnection to Plug-in (hybrid) Electric Vehicles - Low impact sensing Towards More Efficient Energy Use 22

23 Smart Buildings Buildings are key to electricity usage and CO2 impact 76% of US electricity is used by buildings 1 43% of CO2 is generated by buildings 2 Data centers are critical extreme case Industry Challenge Make grid and buildings smarter, make them communicate Today most residential and light commercial buildings not smart (1)Energy Information Association; (2)Pew Center for Global Climate Change 23

24 Bouygues Consortium: Net Positive Energy Buildings Smart Office Buildings with Net Positive Energy Footprint Integration of BMS, IT & Energy Management, and IT-based environmental awareness Computer equipment (PC, IT) is a major building load, but not managed by traditional BEMS Can save 20%+ more energy by controlling ICT equipment & integrating with building management system Implementing a joint POC of holistic energy-efficiency management in commercial offices and buildings 24

25 Intelligent Management of EV Charging Uncoordinated Charging of Electric Vehicles May Require Significant Increase in Peak Power Generation Intelligent charger & aggregator Minimize cost and power level Aggregator adjust Time-of-Day or Real-Time Pricing to maintain limit 25

26 Low Impact Energy Sensing Using computational signal analysis to extract load information A simple plug in sensor replaces multiple electrician installed current transformers Successfully demonstrated non-intrusive sensing methodology for HEMS Inferred Current = 4A Actual Current = 4.1 A Voltage drops yield unique load patterns 26

27 Secure, Efficient Communications Trusted Device Collaboration Privacy-preserving energy data collection and sharing Similarity-based groupings for self- configuration Trusted coalitions for energy control Harvest Energy Savings Low-Power Communications Eliminate senseless sensing Employ Adaptive Heartbeats to reduce network management traffic The Social Life of Devices 27

28 Optimizations of Energy Resources Energy Scheduling Schedule loads and use of storage based on local real-time electricity prices and weather Electric Vehicle Charging Home Energy Mgmt Sys Initial results: scheduling EV charging Optimize cost, transformer power Next step: extend to HEMS Controllable appliances, thermal and electrical storage, local renewable generation 28 Goal: Enable Consumers to meet their personal energy goals

29 Intel Based Products Emerging Intel Home Dashboard Concept Monitors Performance Recommends Solutions Sets Goals Supports Implementation Rewards Success 29

30 Agenda Historical Context Smart-Grids The Enernet Personal Energy Systems Winning the Transition Focus on the Edge Distributed High Level Control Guiding Principles & Open Systems Collaborative Research 30

31 Why the Edge? Focus on End-Users Billions of Endpoints Low initiation barriers Highly scalable Bulk Generation & Storage Transmission Faster path to innovation and adoption Largely ignored Emerging Economies will start here What Intel Brings to the Table Existing customer base Intel Architecture based Software Development environment Rich clients, robust servers, comms, sensors Experience creating & enabling an open ecosystem Trusted name Focus on the Edge & pull 2030 into this decade 31 31

32 Personal Energy Systems are Distributed Local (Consumers + Producers + Energy Storage + Control) May operate independently from main grid (if grid-tied) Cyber-physical system Pricing, service transactions Utility Control Center Modulate loads Manage energy storage Control Maximize renewable generation Consumers Energy Storage Producers 32 The shift from Centralized, to Distributed Generation & Control is inevitable

33 Smart-Grid & Personal Energy Systems Guiding Principles & Standards 1. Architectural stability 2. Roadmap clarity 3. Industry coordination and public/ private partnerships 4. Temporally coordinated evolution Creating a Virtuous Cycle Personal Energy Systems Attributes - Stable AND Evolvable - Standards-Based - Open Systems - Distributed Control - Self-Configuring, Healing, Optimizing, Protecting Ecosystem Success is tied to Guiding Principles and Open Standards 33

34 Intel Open Energy Initiative Objective: Intel Intelligence Powers Smart Grids, Homes & Buildings Focus Areas: Grid infrastructure Home energy management Smart commercial buildings Microgrids & communities Intel activities include: Establishing Intel architecture as the intelligent building block for the smart grid Partnerships with utilities on smart grid pilots and deployment Influencing smart energy policies & standards Research & development of smart energy technologies Strategic venture investments via Intel Capital 34

35 35 Collaborative Research Opportunities New Mexico ESRC Objectives Collaborative research center Replicate residential, commercial, datacenter & industrial power environments Infrastructure for medium scale pilots / PoCs Low-risk, real-world testbed for architectures, standards, policies, protocols, algorithms, sensors Projects 380VDC microgrid testbed PV, energy store, EV charging, servers & office lighting New Mexico Green Grid (NMGGI) Simulate & validate a statewide green grid Goals to demonstrate 35-50% renewables 20-30% peak demand reduction 15-25% grid reliability improvement 10% energy conservation improvement 25% reduction in State of New Mexico carbon footprint PV Generation Energy Storage DC EV Multiport Converter D C Microgrid, Control Plane, Sensors IT Loads AC Commercial Grid Office Loads (Picture courtesy EMerge Alliance) Resources Up to 12 Researchers in residence Living Lab: PV, Energy Storage, Datacenter, Office, 380VDC µgrid Adjacent to State of NM Encanto Supercomputer & Connect NM Gateway Greater Intel Labs: Energy, Cyber- Security, Ethnographic, Compute & Communications Intel Manufacturing Energy Optimization Ecosystem Enabling Intel Capital Let s work together to build the usercentered energy system of the future

36 Call to Action The Personal Energy System We Need Stable AND Evolvable Standards-Based Open Systems Distributed Control Bulk Generation Self-Configuring, Healing, Optimizing, Protecting Intel Actions Products Eco Sustainability Research & Development Standards & Open Energy Initiative Intel Capital Transmission User-Centered Personal Energy Systems Market/Trading Distribution Local Generation /Caching 36 The Energy System we Deserve, Deserves our best Energies