LOW-RISE HOUSING: HOW DID WE GET HERE? WHERE ARE WE GOING?

Transcription

1 LOW-RISE HOUSING: HOW DID WE GET HERE? WHERE ARE WE GOING? May 3, 2017 Live Positive!

2 REAL ESTATE LAW REPEALED! LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION! 2

3 NEW REAL ESTATE LAW! SUPPLY, SUPPLY, SUPPLY! 3

4 NEW HOME SUPPLY 932 LOW-RISE UNITS 9,223 HIGH-RISE UNITS 4

5 RESALE SUPPLY 11,280 LOW-RISE UNITS 2,886 HIGH-RISE UNITS 5

6 CASE STUDY: RICHMOND HILL 40 LOT VALUES 2 YEAR 180% INCREASE 6.5 YEAR PRICE DOUBLE *Data from MCAP & PMA Brethour Research 40 LOT PRICE HAS RISEN AN AVERAGE OF 38% PER YEAR OR A TOTAL OF 462% ($146K TO $820K) SINCE

7 MEDIAN DETACHED RESALE PRICES (MARCH FIGURES) 2 YEAR 150% INCREASE 11 YEAR PRICE DOUBLE *Data from TREB & PMA Brethour Research MEDIAN DETACHED RESALE PRICE HAS RISEN AN AVERAGE OF 16.3% PER YEAR OR A TOTAL OF 211% SINCE

8 NEW HOME SALES VS. INVENTORY *Data from RealNet & PMA Brethour Research SALES VOLUME HAS REMAINED STRONG WHILE INVENTORY HAS PLUMMETED STRONG DEMAND VS LITTLE SUPPLY! 8

9 RESALE SALES VS. ACTIVE LISTINGS *Data from TREB & PMA Brethour Research TWO ANNUAL SALES RECORDS IN A ROW; FALLING LISTINGS 9

10 NEW & RESALE SALES VS. INVENTORY & LISTINGS *Data from TREB, RealNet & PMA Brethour Research BOTH NEW AND RESALE FOLLOWING SIMILAR PATHS DEMAND OUTPACING SUPPLY 10

11 NEW DETACHED SALES VS. INVENTORY *Data from RealNet & PMA Brethour Research NEW DETACHED INVENTORY REACHED HISTORIC LOW IN 2016 WITH ONLY 742 LOTS AVAILABLE FOR SALE 11

12 DETACHED RESALES VS. ACTIVE LISTINGS *Data from TREB & PMA Brethour Research DESPITE RECORD LOW LISTINGS, VOLUME AND DEMAND ARE ALSO AT RECORD HIGHS 12

13 NEW & RESALE DETACHED SALES VS. INVENTORY *Data from TREB, RealNet & PMA Brethour Research AT THE END OF 2016, THERE WERE 2,966 TOTAL DETACHED HOMES AVAILABLE TO SERVICE ANNUAL DEMANDS LEVELS OF 60,000 HOMES 13

14 CANADA PERMANENT RESIDENTS BY SOURCE COUNTRY 28,503 33,024 34,126 24,626 19,533 26,850 27,509 30,932 33,085 38,330 39,530 39,790 36,765 34,314 29,539 40,032 41,785 7,468 11,227 12,602 9,113 11,330 11,340 7,479 7,525 11,288 16,772 11,669 6,485 50,846 PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA INDIA PHILIPPINES PAKISTAN IRAN Canada Total 248, , , , , ,340 *Data from StatCan 14

15 YEARLY IMMIGRATION TO CANADA 320, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , YEAR AVERAGE OF 260,407; 296,000 IN 2016 *Data from StatCan 15

16 YEARLY IMMIGRATION TO THE GTA 110, ,000 90,000 99,289 86,898 92,182 80,000 87,139 82,636 81,702 82,112 81,370 70,000 77,759 77,398 75,649 60,000 50,000 40, YEAR AVERAGE OF 84,012; 81,370 IN 2016 *Data from StatCan 16

17 PERMANENT RESIDENTS BY SOURCE COUNTRIES 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - People's Republic of China India Philippines Pakistan Iran United States United Kingdom France Iraq Republic of Korea Syria *Data from StatCan 17

18 IMMIGRANT DISTRIBUTION (2015 & 2016) Edmonton: 16,743 17,855 Vancouver: 28,383 29,705 Calgary: 21,701 21,430 Saskatoon: 4,446 5,750 Regina: 3,973 4,995 Winnipeg: 12,392 14,056 Toronto: 82,095 81,370 Ottawa: 6,247 7,870 Montreal: 39,366 41,645 THE NUMBER OF IMMIGRANTS IN TOTAL: 271,847 THE NUMBER OF IMMIGRANTS IN TOTAL: 296,340 *Data from StatCan 18

19 905 SUBURBAN - STACKED TOWNS & MEDIUM DENSITY: SOME PMA PROJECTS STACKED TOWNHOMES NOW REPRESENT 35% OF ALL TOWNHOME SALES & 10% OF ALL HIGH- RISE SALES *Data from RealNet & PMA Brethour Research 19

20 519/705 X-URBAN: DRIVE TILL YOU QUALIFY Collingwood Angus Barrie Peterborough Cobourg Fergus London Caledonia Binbrook Niagara Falls OVER 2,500 LOW RISE SALES IN THE MARKETS ABOVE IN 2016 COMPARED TO 17,965 IN THE GTA *Data from RealNet & PMA Brethour Research 20

21 THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME LIVE POSITIVE! 21