E-Africa by the horizon 2020 Ultra Wide Band in Africa? A mainly political choice

Transcription

1 8 th International Workshop on Internet Charging and QoS Technologies ICQT'13 Zurich October 14 th 2013 E-Africa by the horizon 2020 Ultra Wide Band in Africa? A mainly political choice C de Jacquelot ICT political advisor Jacquelot@aol.com 1

2 summary 1. An economical transformation for governments which have to move to ICT, cash cow of the state budget driven by an E-economy. 2. Wide band? What for? How do consumers use it? 3. How to serve wide band on the short and middle term (2016) and ultra wide band by the horizon Impacts on infrastructures and the regional integration problem. All the different points are illustrated by lessons based on the Programm for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) and country case studies. 2

3 Voice and Internet every where in the world? Growth in Mobile Connections Billion 6 Billion 7.8 Billion 3

4 4 4

5 High speed Internet : the XXI th century challenge 3 main axis with horizons NATIONAL AND REGIONAL DIGITAL PROGRAMMES FTTH INSTITUTIONS AND GOVERNEMENT INITIATIVES 4G-LTE Involve private sector where it is possible (profitable) and increase competition Reduce investment as possible Gov intervention if required based on Competition FTTH FOR NETWORK ACCESS (NO DUPLICATION) FO FOR BACKBONE AND BACKHAUL BASED ON COMPETITION * Based on international benchmark 5

6 NGA networks- A challenge for developed countries North America 65% 10-30% U.S. (2012) : 8 M subs 22M Home passed World, 2010 Europe 35% 5-10%? China (2011) : 38 M FTTx subs FTTH Forecast : 80 M homes passed end M homes passed end 2015 Japan - Korea 80% >40% Legend Homes passed Homes connected Source: Arthur D. Little, Exane BNP Paribas, Analysys Mason, IDATE NGA includes wireline technologies providing ultra fast broadband (all FTTx technologies and DOCSIS 3.0) North America and Asia-Pacific have taken the lead in new infrastructure deployments 6

7 Potential new Digital divide Africa vs rest of the world XIX th Market voice over monopoly Fixe Copper access Network-Unbundling Alternative infrastructure 2G Mobile 3G Voice BB internet-adsl Competition Internet mobile Voice over IP 4G LTE FTTH Fixe market under monopoly 2G Mobile 3G Digital Divide ADSL? Voice 2000 VoIp & BB internet

8 The new african challenge e Africa

9 The Vision: e-africa 2020 a Digital Africa An Africa based on Information society and e-economy Develop E-Government E-Commerce Social Networks & Telephony and video calls IPTV To support: Economic development - GDP growth, jobs Social inclusion - elimination of isolation Regional Integration - trade, decision-making Equal participation on the global stage Improved peace & security Meeting the Millennium Development Goals 9

10 The Context Impact on BB development on Traffic in developing countries 1. Exploding growth in bandwidth requirements to respond to the demand from customers at: Local Level National level Regional level International level Exploding growth in bandwidth Increase connectivity (Infrastructure) Increase capacity ( Bandwidth) New access infrastructure National infrastructure Regional infrastructure International infrastructure 10

11 Fixed Access infrastructure divide Fixe line : North vs Sub sahara countries MAU+ Egypt 57% Sub Sahara 43% Sub Sahara MAU+ Egypt Fixe density average North vs Sub sahara (2012) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Sub Sahara MAU+ Egypt source ITU-C de Jacquelot 2013 A context which impact the Broadband development model between developed and developing countries 11

12 12 Mobile Switching Centre Controller Controller Controller Controller Controller Controller Mobile Switching Centre Controller Controller Mobile Switching Centre Controller Controller Mobile Switching Centre Controller Controller Mobile Switching Centre Controller Controller Mobile Switching Centre Controller Controller Mobile Switching Centre Controller Controller Mobile Switching Centre 2 major issues on voice service prices: Interconnection Call terminaison Taxe on international call Controller Mobile Switching Centre Controller Mobile Switching Centre Infrastructure and Voice market release Mobile before 2011 International Telecommunication Consultant

13 Mobile market in Africa 2G vs 3G Countries in Africa Mobile market in Africa competition status 2G Countries 36% Country w ith Monopoly 9% Country w ith duopoly 32% 3G Countries 64% Country w ith 3 ou more 59% 3G data services : status of competition Countries w ith 3 G data monopoly 38% Countries w ith 3 G data competition 62% A market in progress 13

14 Africa 2G-3G 14

15 Internet Users in Africa 15

16 Political aspects of ICT development in Africa ICT will become an engine to e economy Has been ICT ICT in a new world How to success this challenge? 16

17 International access International bandwidth : from Desert to Tsunami Source & October

18 International traffics : Africa and Voice VS IP (Libya case) Africa International IP bandwith Mbps International bandwidth IP vs voice (Libya case) source Africabandwidth-Pidastudy-BB study Mbps Ip traffic is growing under customers demand and voice traffic becomes residual IP Bandwitdth Mbps Voice bandwidth Mbps source ICT Ministry

19 Internet growth s indicator: ASN- World vs Africa Source Data from RIR websites as of: Sun Oct A growth more important than is the rest of the world but still gap exists 19

20 Who is the African consumer? How is he connected? International Telecommunication Consultant E goverment Economic development World integration? Accès au Savoir 20

21 A draft of response loaded of lessons TOP 7 of Web average access for some african countries Google.xx google.com Facebook Youtube wikipedia Yayoo Likedln blogspot twitter Local contents S1 source Oc TOP WEB Worldwide overview: some countries vs World Africa consumer = European consumer google.com Facebook Youtube wikipedia Yayoo Likedln blogspot twitter Local contents South Korea Swiss Swiss Developping countries South Korea World 21

22 What are the generated traffics? European case Migration from B & R traffics to pure residential traffic Week End Residential traffic Residential traffic In Europe Residential BB traffic is the heavy one 22

23 What are the generated traffics? South Africa case End of working hours Week end 23

24 What are the generated traffics? Nigeria per Submarine cable access End of working hours Mainone Week end Glo1 Two cases very different from European model 24

25 What are the generated traffics? North African consumer case Bandwidth overflow new allocated Bandwidth Former allocated Bandwidth Web Video(Youtube, dailymotion,..) Bandwidth increase 33 % 25

26 What are the generated traffics? Kenya 2 week ago Attack of the Mole at Nairobi 26

27 Asymmetry on International bandwidth (Egypt Case) International IP traffic traffic In and out going (Mbps) Egypt case Outgoing Ip traffic; 23% Incoming IP traffic 77% source MICT October 2013 which corresponds to an Asymemetry of demand which have economic impact 27

28 How to connect african consumers? 28

29 Digital divide North-South 450 Gbits (56 %) inhabitants (16 %) 350 Gbits (44 %) inhabitants (84%) Donnée décembre

30 Reach the sub marine cable station to have access to International bandwidth Others Others ACE 200 Actors EASSY GLO-1 MainOne SEACOM WACS 30

31 International connectivity :Ghana case Globalcom Sub marine cable Level3 Globalcom mobile Millicom Tigo MainOne Cable Telia sonera International 31

32 International connectivity : Ghana IXP ecosystem Ghana IXP Mainone Cable Ghana have 37 ASN 4 are peering 32

33 International connectivity :Tunisia IXP-ATI ATI Tunisia backbone Level 3 Sat3 Telecom Italia Sparkle Peering Orange Tunisie Interoute 33

34 International connectivity :Tunisia IXP-ATI (2) 34 Source ATI October

35 Reduce international bandwidth usage -IXP Africa October 2013 The usage of international bandwidth has an important impact on the end user price How to reduce this point? Intra country traffic shall stay in the country IXP Peering Intra regional traffics shall transit via terrestrial infrastructure as possible Regional infrastructure Regional peering Implement Cache At IXP node Per operator/isp Return of the field < 20-25% 35

36 Bandwidth price vs Bandwidth : Financial approach Costs of Mbps/month regarding bandwith payload per SM cable $4 500 $4 000 $3 500 Bandwidth cost $3 000 $2 500 $2 000 $1 500 $1 000 $500 $0 2,5 Gbits 10 Gbits 50 Gbits 100 Gbits 300 Gbits 500 Gbits Gbits SAT3 Seacom TEAMs EASSy GLO1 MainOne Wacs ACE 36

37 Broadband access: Tunisia case Broadband density 14,00% 12,00% Number of Broadband access Tunisia BB Market development: global and per technology BB access Adsl 3G data Kbps/BB access % of Population 10,00% 8,00% 6,00% 4,00% 2,00% 0,00% International bandwidth per BB access

38 Broadband access: Tunisia case 38

39 Impact of backbone/backhaul investment on Bandwidth cost Cout total du Projet (CAPEX) Financial analysis $ annual Monthly Reimbursment (Capex) $ $ Maintenance (opex) $ $8 871 Global cots (opex+capex) $ $ Cost of IP Mbps/Monthly vs traffic Mbps/montly $ Mbps 300 Mbps 1Gbps 2,5 Gbits 10 Gbits Bandwidth 39

40 BB density vs bandwidth per BB access an indicator of quality? Indicator of BB quality in some African Countries 300 Bandwidth per BB access (Kbps) ,00% 5,00% 10,00% 15,00% 20,00% Density of BB access 40

41 Infrastructure Driving Factors of Network Congestion in Africa 3G 3G /LTE 3G FO infra. 10 Ge National And Regional Access Technical economic Backhaul Technical economic Radio vs Terrestrial infrastructure Licence cost Spectrum cost backbone Technical economic National and regional backbone Sub marine cable Technical economic 20$< < 3000$ Worldwide Technical economic 3$< < 5$ Value Chain of internet in Africa because 3G-LTE Fixe data become reference technology to support BB services 41

42 Developing effective and sustainable policies A large number of exogenous factors are impacting on QoS and pricing of Internet, Infrastructure access is one of the major in Africa Solutions? 42

43 Quality of internet in Africa Broadband access MAU + Egypt (Global et per technology) ADSL 3G Global Broadband access 43

44 Quality of internet in Africa IP international bandwidth per BB access (Kbps/BB access) Kbps Tunisia Morocco Egypt Mauritania Algeria Libya 44

45 Africa IP traffic: Historical and projection Africa IP international Traffic: Historical and projection Mbps % Tunisia 10% Tunisia 10% Hight (120Kbps//BB a) Year-Density 45

46 3G 3G 3G/LTE FO infra. 10 Ge Smart pricing Value Chain African case (4) (Tunisia Case) Keltra-2 20Gbps SEA-ME-WE Tbps Hannibal 3.2Tbps Backhaul/backbone Sub marine cable Worldwide Technical Technical Technical economic economic economic country 20$< < 3000$ 3$< < 5$ Value Chain of internet in Africa because 3G-LTE Fixe data become reference technology to support BB services Access Technical economic country 46

47 MERCI OBRIGADO THANK YOU Muchas gracias Grazie mille شكرا 47

48 Round table 48

49 Driving Factors of Network Congestion and economic aspects African case (1) During x Years, the transposition of Mobile vs Fixe by the African consumers is a fact The emergency of broadband in Africa will be (is) based on the usage s transposition of Internet 3G (4G) data vs fixe technologies ( Adsl, Coax, ) For exemple 3G IP data traffic of Tunisia is equivalent of 50 % of France one 49

50 Driving Factors of Network Congestion African case (3) Mauritania Case study millions de minutes Source : rapports d'activité ARE 384 Volume total de trafic et usage (fixe) Volume de trafic (M min) Usage (min / ligne / mois) minutes par ligne et par mois millions de minutes Source : rapports d'activité ARE 35 Volume total de trafic et usage (mobile) Volume de trafic (M min) Usage (min / ligne / mois) minutes par ligne et par mois Internet 3G data Impact Parc Internet Source : ARE IP international bandwidth Nombre d'abonnements Mbps RTC LS ADSL Mobile

51 IP international bandwidth per BB access (Kbps/BB access) Driving Factors of Network Congestion African case (3) Quality of internet in Africa Kbps Tunisia Morocco Egypt Mauritania Algeria Libya Broadband access MAU + Egypt (Global et per technology) ADSL 3G Global Broadband access 51

52 3G 3G 3G/LTE Driving Factors of Network Congestion African case (4) (Tunisia Case) FO infra. 10 Ge Keltra-2 20Gbps SEA-ME-WE Tbps Hannibal 3.2Tbps Backhaul/backbone Sub marine cable Worldwide Technical Technical Technical economic economic economic country 20$< < 3000$ 3$< < 5$ Value Chain of internet in Africa because 3G-LTE Fixe data become reference technology to support BB services Access Technical economic country 52