Investments in a financial crisis. Helani Galpaya ITS, Perth, Aug 2009
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1 Universal Service Policy in Africa, Asia Investments in a financial crisis Helani Galpaya ITS, Perth, Aug 2009
2 Some thoughts : limited to South Asia Investment continues in crisis, but allocation may change higher expected RoR Incentive to go to high/fast growth markets (Asia, Africa: huge untapped markets) South Asia: profitable market Previous EBITDA of 50 60% (~1.5 years ago) Now lower but still attractive (35% Bangladesh; 28% Sri Lanka; 37% India etc. ) Even if investors from the global north (developed countries) face credit crunch Asian/African investment into telecoms is: Internally generated (e.g. India) Regionally generated (from Asia itself, or the middle east)
3 EBITDA margings v. high previously (50%+). Now more in line with EU/USA. But still attractive EBITDA margin (2008) Bangladesh1 35% Sri Lanka2 28 T-Mobile Mobile (Europe) EBITDA margin 35% T-Mobile Mobile (USA) % India3 37
4 Untapped markets + ability to leapfrog attractiveavaible. E.g. untapped rural markets India rural penetration ~14% per 100 population Install newer (cheaper) technologies without legacy ( p ) g g y investment issues
5 Investment Internally generated. E.g. Largest market (India) mostly "Indian" " investment lion USD In Mill Foreign Direct Investm ent Inflow Cumulative
6 FDI matters, but regional investors (from Asia, Middle East) dominate Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan s Telecom Sector (in US$ millions) Telecom Sector s FDI in Telecom Contribution ti in Year Total FDI Sector Total FDI (%) China Mobile acquired % of Paktel Orascom increased stake in Mobilink to % SingTel purchased % Warid Telecom - OmanTel purchased 60% of World Call
7 Asian Companies investing in Asia..and soon in Africa? (Airtel in talks with MTN) Regional Investor/Operator Invested in (company) Located in Stake TM International (Bangladesh) Limited (Aktel) Bangladesh 70% Axiata (Malaysia) Spice Telecom India 39.2% Multinet Pakistan (Private) Limited Pakistan 100% Dialog Telekom PLC Sri Lanka 84.81% Citycell Bangladesh 45% SingTel (Singapore) Bhathi Airtel India 30.4% Warid Telecom Pakistan 30% Globe Telecom Philippines 21.5% Not Bharti Airtel (India) Bhathi Airtel India stated Airtel Sri Lanka Si Sri Lanka 100% TM International (Bangladesh) Limited (Aktel) Bangladesh 30% NTT DoCoMo (Japan) Tata Teleservices India 26% Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company Philippines 20% Maxis Communications Berhad of Aircel Limited India 74% Malaysia Axis (PT Natrindo Telepon Seluler) Indonesia 44% Hutchison Telecom (HK SAR) Hutch Sri Lanka 100% 3 Indonesia 60% Tata Communications Ltd (India) Tata Teleservices India 74% United Telecom Limited it (UTL) Nepal 26.66% 66% China Mobile Zong(Paktel) Pakistan 100%
8 Middle eastern companies investing in Asia, Africa Invested In Regional Investor Company Country Share Qtel Qatar 100% Nawras Oman 55.60% AsiaCell Iraq 30% Wataniya Kuwait 52.50% Tunisiana Tunisia 26.25% Nedjma Algeria 46.30% Wataniya Palastine 29.90% Bravo KSA 29.20% Q Telecom Qatar Wataniya Maldives 52.50% Wi Tribe Jordan 78.00% Wi Tribe Pakistan 78.00% Liberty Philippines 40.00% 00% Navlink 38.00% Indosat Indonesia 40.80% LTC Laos 6.00% Shinawatra Cambodia 12.00% Starhub Singapore 12.00%
9 Regional Investor Etisalat Abu Dhabi Group Warid Telecom Invested In Company Country Etisalat UAE Etihad Etisalat (Mobily) KSA Thuraya UAE West Africa majority shares in mobile operators in Benin, Burkina Faso, Atlantique Telecom (AT) Gabon, Niger, Togo and Cote D'Ivoire Canar Sudan Etisalat Misr Egypt Etisalat Nigeria Zantel Tanzania Etisalat Afghanistan PTCL Pakistan Exelcomindo Indonesia Swan Telecom India Warid Telecom International LLC UAE Warid Telecom (Pvt) Limited Pakistan Wateen Telecom (Pvt) Limited (Warid Pakistan) Pakistan Warid Telecom International Limited Bangladesh Warid Telecom Uganda Limited Uganda Warid Congo SA Republic of Congo Have Investments in Non GSM operations Share Not Stated Not Stated
10 Regional Investor Orascom Telecom Holding S.A.E Invested In Company Country Share OTA Algeria 96.81% Mobilink Pakistan 100% Mobinil Egypt 28.75% Eyptian Co. For Mobile Services Egypt 20.00% Orascom Telecom Tunisiana Tunisia 50% Banglalink Bangladesh 100% Koryolink North Korea 75% Globalive (To be launched at the end of 2009) Canada? Telecel (Telecel Global) Central African Republic 100% Cell One (Telecel Global) Namibia 100% U Com (Telecel Global) Burundi 100% Telecel (Telecel Global) Zimbabwe 60%
11 Increasingly fewer "western" investors left Exceptions: Vodafone, Telenor, C&W Investor Country Invested in Company Share Cable and Wireless Telenor Group UK Norway Maldives Dhiraagu 45% Afghanistan Roshan Monaco Telecom International (MTI) Monaco owns 36.75% Bangladesh Grameen Phone Limited 62% Pakistan Telenor Pakistan 100% India Unitech Not stated Others moving out Tigo (Millicom) selling most Asian operations
12 Those who do invest find business models suitable for South Asian markets: e.g. "buget telecom model" Low ARPU s Average ~USD 5 (Bangladesh USD 2 for some operators) Mostly (over 80%) prepaid low cost of serving (no bills, electronic re load, no customer care) low customer acquisition cost (~USD 3.5) low/no credit risk (pre paid) Regional negotiations for equipment Low Quality acceptable call drop rates x2 of US/EU
13 USO: most have got it wrong. E.g. India USO policy (then) Charge 5% of gross revenues from operators Funds given to installing rural FIXED PHONEs Mobile not eligible for USF (conditions of auctions) But rural fixed penetration negligible (even declining recently) l) But only mobile penetration growing rurally (without any help) By 2006, India has USD 4 billion in a undisbursed USF
14 14 India rural penetration tions per 100 peop ple Connec Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Sep 08 Total Wireline Wireless (mobile+cdma)
15 Stakholder unhappiness as revealed by LIRNEasia's TRE survey TRE scores for Universal Service Obligation IN: Lowest in both fixed and mobile Pakistan India Indonesia Sri Lanka Philippines 2.6 Fixed Mobile
16 Policy changed in March 2007 Mobiles made eligible to receive 5.0 Perceptions improve 4.5 (TRE jumps 64%) BUT, still ~4 billion 64% 3.0 increase undisbursed 2.5 TRE Scores barely above average of 3.0 No subsidies needed? Passive infrastructure auctions India 2006 vs TRE for USO 36% increase Mobile Fixed
17 Other examples too (e.g. PH). Bottom line: USO policy is hard to get "right". Increasingly unnecessary. And certainly makes no sense in badly regulated environments.
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