Internet Video: The Next Wave of Massive Disruption to the U.S. Peering Ecosystem. IVTNWOMDTTUSPE Bill Norton Equinix

Transcription

1 Internet Video: The Next Wave of Massive Disruption to the U.S. Peering Ecosystem IVTNWOMDTTUSPE Bill Norton Equinix

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3 Massive Disruption in U.S. Peering Ecosystem! Full Episodes Desperate Housewives 210MB/hour For 320x240 H.264 Video itunes image 10,000,000 households 2,100,000,000 MB = 2.1 peta-bytes How long will that take to download? 3 64Gbps non-stop! Just one show Try 250M*180 Channels*HDTV Historical Perspective review 5yr disruptions Source:

4 The Research Question What are the costs per video of distributing movies across the Internet?

5 Modeling Load Small Medium Large Transit CDN Transit/Peering P2P

6 Modeling the Video Service Provider Distribution Networks Four Models 1. Commodity Transit 2. CDN 3. Transit/Peering/DIY CDN 4. Peer2Peer Four Load Models A: Small Load B: Medium Load C: Large Load Models A:10 video s B: 100 C: : Transit Model 1A Model 1B Model 1C 2: CDN Model 2A Model 2B Model 2C 3: Hybrid Model 3A Model 3B Model 3C 4: P2P Model 4A Model 4B Model 4C Goal : estimate cost : $/video downloaded

7 Summary Internet Video Distribution Methods $/Video Download $0.90 $0.80 $0.70 $0.60 $0.50 $0.40 $0.30 $0.20 $0.10 $0.00 A B C Model 1:Transit Model2: CDN Model3: Transit/Peering Model 4: P2P Load Models Models A:10 videos B: 100 C: : Transit 1A: $0.60 1B: $0.36 1C: $0.20 2: CDN 2A: $0.77 2B: $0.44 2C: $0.24 3: Hybrid 3A: $0.69 3B: $0.31 3C: $0.17 Per Video Cost Of delivery 4: P2P 4A:$0.18 4B: $ C: $0.0018

8 Generalized Model Server Servers Aggregation Switch(es) Router(s) Router(s) Router(s) Router(s) Transit Provider(s) or Transit Providers/CDN CDN(s) Maintenance Maintenance Contract Maintenance Contract Contract

9 Demand Curve Modeling 95 th % _~ 4.4x =6.6x = 10 videos/5 min=400mbps

10 Model 1C Upstream ISPs Server1 : Server24 : Server262 : : Server263 Server264 : GigE Switch1 GigE Switch14 10G Distribution GigE Switch 48 port GigE for servers 2 10GE for upstream $10,000 Add another every 24 servers : 10G Router4 Router2 Router2 Router1 8 * 10GE to upstreams each Average Load 40,000 Mbps 95th Percentile Load 4 160,000 Mbps Peak Load ,000 Mbps Model 1C - Simple Commodity Transit for Video Distribution monthly Transit Fee 160,000 mbps@ $10 permbps $1,600,000 Colo 14 rack@ $2,000 perrack $28,000 Network Equip $150,000 3yrAmort $16,667 AggregationSwitch 14 $10,000 3yrAmort $3,889 Servers 264 $4,000 3yrAmort $29,333 Maintenance 15% $7,483 Staff 3 $180,000 $45,000 Total $1,730,372 # videos downloaded per month 8,640,000 Cost per video downloaded $0.20 Routers Cisco 6509Sup720-3bxl w/4*4-port 10GE, $150,000 80Gbps from switches, 80Gbps to upstreams

11 Model 2C: CDN Large Load Average Load 40,000 Mbps 95th Percentile Load 4 160,000 Mbps Peak Load ,000 Mbps Model 2C - Content Delivery Network for Video Distribution monthly Transit Fee 160,000 mbps@ $13 permbps $2,080,000 Colo 1 rack@ $1,500 perrack $1,500 Network Equip $30,000 3yrAmort $833 Servers 1 $4,000 3yrAmort $111 Maintenance 15% $367 Staff 0.5 $180,000 $7,500 Total $2,090,311 # videos downloaded per month 8,640,000 Cost per video downloaded $0.24

12 Model 3C: Transit/Peering Heavy Load Average Load 40,000 Mbps 95th Percentile Load 4 160,000 Mbps Peak Load ,000 Mbps Model 3C - Blended Transit and Peering for Video distribution 3 site 25% peering monthly Transit Fee 120,000 mbps@ $10 permbps $1,200,000 Colo 42 rack@ $2,000 rack+port $84,000 Network Equip $150,000 3yrAmort $50,000 AggregationSwitch 42 $10,000 3yrAmort $3,889 Servers 792 $4,000 3yrAmort $88,000 Maintenance 15% $21,283 Staff 3 $180,000 $45,000 Total $1,492,172 # videos downloaded per month 8,640,000 Cost per video downloaded $0.17

13 Model 4C: P2P Large Load Average Load Mbps Mbps 95th Percentile Load 4 160,000 Mbps Peak Load ,000 Mbps Model 4C - Peer-to-Peer Network for Video Distribution single-site stormcasting monthly Transit Fee 100 mbps@ $50 permbps $5,000 Colo 1 rack@ $1,500 perrack $1,500 Network Equip $30,000 3yrAmort $833 Servers 1 $4,000 3yrAmort $111 Maintenance 15% $367 Staff 0.5 $180,000 $7,500 Total $15,311 # videos downloaded per month 8,640,000 Cost per video downloaded $0.0018

14 Summary Internet Video Distribution Methods $/Video Download $0.90 $0.80 $0.70 $0.60 $0.50 $0.40 $0.30 $0.20 $0.10 $0.00 A B C Model 1:Transit Model2: CDN Model3: Transit/Peering Model 4: P2P Load Models Models A:10 videos B: 100 C: : Transit 1A: $0.60 1B: $0.36 1C: $0.20 2: CDN 2A: $0.77 2B: $0.44 2C: $0.24 3: Hybrid 3A: $0.69 3B: $0.31 3C: $0.17 Per Video Cost Of delivery 4: P2P 4A:$0.18 4B: $ C: $0.0018

15 Observation/Implications Internet Transit Supply _ Internet Transit Price _ Internet Transit Model! src/dst specific Bottlenecks IX Power, Router Capacity, Peer s Capacity, Last Mile bottleneck Do I need to upgrade $$$$ gear to support my competitor (peer)? Geoff Huston: P2P has won. Telco/Cable co trying to keep its 1998 biz plan relevant. I look forward to discussing this over the next few days.