USAR Energy and Water Security

Transcription

1 UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 08 NOV 2017 Leadership, Energy, and Execution Mr. Marcus De La Rosa/ USAR Energy and Water Security 08 November 2017 Dr. Mark Kodack, Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Energy and Sustainability Marcus De La Rosa, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Dave Judi, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

2 Learning Objectives UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 08 NOV 2017 Leadership, Energy, and Execution Mr. Marcus De La Rosa/ Why do energy and water security planning? What is my role with the energy and water security planning? What is a vulnerability assessment? What is the Army Reserve's plan for implementing an Energy and Water Security Strategy?

3 Why water security? Marc Kodack Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Energy and Sustainability Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)

4 Potential Crises to 2030 Colors Indicate Regional Groupings with Shared Factors Cyber Attack on Critical U.S. Infrastructure Fishery Deserti Terrorist WMD Depletion Attack fication Water TCO Scarcity Violence Cuba - Instability Sea Level Rise Haiti Crisis TCOs Destabilizing Sea Governance Level Venezuela Rise Instability Columbia Insurgency Motivations Wealth Resources Political authority Influence Sovereignty Identity Legitimacy FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Sea Level Rise Deforestation Peru Insurgency Range of Threat Actors Near-Peer State Regional State Failing State Transnational Group Insurgent/Guerrilla/Militia Proxies Terrorists Criminal Groups Arctic Territorial Disputes Russia-Georgia Tensions Sudan Conflict Desertification Armenia- Azerbaijan Crisis Balkans Instability Syria Sea Level Civil War Libya Internal Rise Tensions Israeli- Palestinian Desertification Iran Egypt Tensions Regional Antagonisms Water Internal Scarcity Terrorist Tensions Challenge Terrorist Challenge EU Integration Sea Level Frictions Rise Sub-Saharan Africa Widespread Potential Humanitarian Crises, Governance Crises Deforestation Global Conditions Proliferation of Arms, WMD Uneven Economic Recovery Humanitarian/Natural Disaster, Yemen Instability Somalia Conflict Terrorist Challenges Piracy Terrorist Challenge Fishery Depletion Central Asia Interstate Friction Afghanistan Continuing Insurgency North Korea Regime Sea Level Peacekeeping Water Scarcity Collapse Rise India/Pakistan North Korea - South Fishery Korea Depletion Crisis Pakistan Internal Tensions Sea Level Deforestation SE Asia Rise Tensions South China Sea Tensions Assistant Demographics, Secretary Technology, of Resource the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment) Scarcity, Energy, Environment China-Taiwan Crisis Sea Deforestation Level Rise Future Operating Environment Will be Complex and Change is Likely to Accelerate Terrorist Challenge Desertification Large Majority of Crises Stem from Weak Governance Environmental changes will drive weak governance, which will drive crisis Relationship to U.S. & Allies Vital National Interests May Not Be Apparent 4

5 Consequence Mission Assurance Extreme Major Moderate Minor Highly Unlikely Improbable Probable Very Likely Probability Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment) 5

6 Water Risks Changes in storm frequency, duration, and intensity Water rights Sea level rise Wild fires Drought Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment) 6

7 Drought Recent Drought can result in water restrictions that include Army installations Training restrictions wildfire risk Community relations Future Water increasingly scarce Increased conflict between installations and local communities for water More frequent training restrictions due to limited water supply Supply chain disruptions Heat index Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment) 7

8 Energy Security and Sustainability Strategy Energy Security and Sustainability Strategy Army-wide applicability ASA(IE&E) Strategy 2025 Installation-wide applicability of Key Business Driver #2, Energy and Sustainability Shared Goals 1. Inform Decisions 2. Optimize Use 3. Assure Access 4. Build Resilience 5. Drive Innovation Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment) 8

9 Water Security Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment) 9

10 Army Net Zero A net zero installation: Applies an integrated approach to management of energy, water, and waste to capture and commercialize the resource value and/or enhance the ecological productivity of land, water, and air. Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment) 10

11 Why water security? Marc Kodack Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Energy and Sustainability Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy & Environment)

12 USAR Energy & Water Security UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 08 NOV 2017 Leadership, Energy, and Execution Mr. Marcus De La Rosa/ BLUF: To confirm the path forward for Energy and Water Security planning and implementation at USAR facilities and installations

13 Agenda UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 08 NOV 2017 Leadership, Energy, and Execution Mr. Marcus De La Rosa/ Background Definitions Installation Energy and Water Plan (IEWP) Installation Status Report Mission Capacity (ISR-MC) Army Reserve Critical Asset List (ARCAL) Concurrent Tasks

14 Background UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 08 NOV 2017 Leadership, Energy, and Execution Mr. Marcus De La Rosa/ Problem Statement The complex, geographically dispersed nature of the Army Reserve presents unique challenges to the development and implementation of energy and water security (E&WS) planning, required by the Army for all facilities. Facts: Energy & Water Security planning is required Defense managers and commanders will: (1) conduct energy vulnerability analyses and review for currency annually; (2) establish energy emergency preparedness and operation plans; and (3) develop and execute remedial action plans to remove unacceptable energy security risks. (DEPPM 92-1) DoD Components shall plan and have the capability to ensure available, reliable, and quality power to continuously accomplish DoD missions from military installations and facilities. (DoDI change 1, March 2016) The Army will reduce risk to critical missions by being capable of providing necessary energy and water for a minimum of 14 days. (Army Directive )

15 Definitions Energy Security 10 USC 2924 (3)(A) The term energy security means having assured access to reliable supplies of energy and the ability to protect and deliver sufficient energy to meet mission essential requirements. (B) In selecting facility energy projects that will use renewable energy sources, pursuit of energy security means the installation will give favorable consideration to projects that provide power directly to a military facility or into the installation electrical distribution network. In such cases, projects should be prioritized to provide power for assets critical to mission essential requirements on the installation in the event of a disruption in the commercial grid. Energy Resilience DoDI The ability to prepare for and recover from energy disruptions that impact mission assurance on military installations. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 08 NOV 2017 Leadership, Energy, and Execution Mr. Marcus De La Rosa/

16 Concurrent Tasks UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 08 NOV 2017 Leadership, Energy, and Execution Mr. Marcus De La Rosa/ Installation Energy and Water Plan (IEWP) ISR MC Metrics for Readiness Divisions Vulnerability Assessments

17 IEWP March 2016 OSD memo requires installation energy plan to: Assure future energy, water demand Achieve requirements (Congress, White House, DoD) Lower costs Facilitate stakeholder cooperation OSD target is signed plans for top 75% Army energy users by March 2019 The Army will take this opportunity to develop a comprehensive IEWP requirement: Leverage current installation-level plans Meet OSD requirements Address additional Army energy and water security planning objectives UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 08 NOV 2017 Leadership, Energy, and Execution Mr. Marcus De La Rosa/

18 Concurrent Tasks UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 08 NOV 2017 Leadership, Energy, and Execution Mr. Marcus De La Rosa/ Installation Energy and Water Plan (IEWP) ISR MC Metrics for Readiness Divisions Vulnerability Assessments Draft Outline Completed Plans MAR 2019

19 ISR-MC 2016 Results UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 08 NOV 2017 Leadership, Energy, and Execution Mr. Marcus De La Rosa/

20 Strategic Readiness Platforms (SRP) UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 08 NOV 2017 Leadership, Energy, and Execution Mr. Marcus De La Rosa/

21 Strategic Direction UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 08 NOV 2017 Leadership, Energy, and Execution Mr. Marcus De La Rosa/

22 Concurrent Tasks UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 08 NOV 2017 Leadership, Energy, and Execution Mr. Marcus De La Rosa/ Installation Energy and Water Plan (IEWP) ISR MC Metrics for Readiness Divisions Vulnerability Assessments Draft Outline Preliminary Analysis Completed Plans MAR 2019 First Draft DEC 2017

23 ARCAL List UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 08 NOV 2017 Leadership, Energy, and Execution Mr. Marcus De La Rosa/

24 ARCAL List UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 08 NOV 2017 Leadership, Energy, and Execution Mr. Marcus De La Rosa/

25 ARCAL List UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 08 NOV 2017 Leadership, Energy, and Execution Mr. Marcus De La Rosa/

26 Concurrent Tasks UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 08 NOV 2017 Leadership, Energy, and Execution Mr. Marcus De La Rosa/ Installation Energy and Water Plan (IEWP) ISR MC Metrics for Readiness Divisions Vulnerability Assessments Draft Outline Preliminary Analysis Methodology Validation Completed Plans MAR 2019 First Draft DEC 2017 VAs Complete DEC 2019 Comprehensive Energy and Water Security Planning

27 Infrastructure Resilience Overview DAVID JUDI, ALAN BERSCHEID Pacific Northwest National Laboratory December 6,

28 Infrastructure Analytics Improve the understanding of mission functional dependencies on infrastructure service and evaluate the impacts of potential disruptive events in those systems System reliability studies used to evaluate infrastructure asset criticality System response studies to assess the ability of system operators to mitigate impacts Restoration and recovery studies to evaluate duration of impacts and system outages 2 8

29 Infrastructure Sectors and Modeling and Simulation Capabilities Energy Dams Water\Wastewater Information Technology Transportation Public Health & Healthcare Emergency Services Agriculture & Food Financial Services Commercial Facilities Critical Manufacturing Telecommunications Chemical Nuclear Reactors, Materials & Waste Government Facilities Defense Industrial Base

30 System Impacts Under Complex Threat Scenarios CBRNE Physical Assault Cyber Accident Weather Hurricane\Cyclone Ice Storm Tsunami Drought Earthquake Flood Climate Pandemic Wildfire

31 Analytic Process hard, but not intractable Data acquisition On-site mission essential functions On-site physical infrastructure systems Off-site supporting infrastructure systems Control Systems Model based analyses Contingency analyses Scenario driven case studies for events of interest Fragility analyses Cascading analyses Systems are heterogeneous across facilities December 6,

32 Analytic Process System Performance Contingency Infrastructure Analytic Process Use modeling and simulation to understand impact of external stressors on system performance Infrastructure Security Analytic Process Network-based modeling and simulation N-1, N-2 contingencies for critical assets Definition of disruption as threshold (e.g., pressure/demand unmet over simulation period) Process objectively quantifies: Component criticality System redundancy Quantification of inherent system redundancy Characterization and quantification of emergency backup systems Infrastructure analytic process is Threat Agnostic 32

33 Interdependency and Consequences Service Area Tools Algorithms based on magnitude of demand at delivery points Water Service Areas Interdependencies identified through the geospatial link Consequences Identification of dependency magnitude Physically based Simulation of other infrastructure models Max_Impact D(pr) total economic damages to business 100% 0% (6) (5) (4) 0% 100% Electric Power Service Areas % of normal pressure pr 33

34 Infrastructure Analysis Levels/Data Needs GOLD SILVER BRONZE Network models Georeferenced data System schematics Operational Plans Stakeholder engagement Geospatial system data System component capacities System subject matter expertise Geospatial demand allocation Stakeholder engagement Higher-level analysis Publicly available information (e.g., utility websites) Subject matter expertise (SME) SME assumptions on system functionality Service area estimation Geospatial location Population distribution 34

35 Value Proposition Insight to decision makers on internal and external infrastructure dependencies for response planning Access to key study findings for collaborating utilities Potential planning tool and support for capital improvement funding proposals across the region Definition of cascading consequences of system operation including public health and economic value Identification of mitigation strategies for specific contingencies Evaluation of impacts on future system operational constraints Characterization of importance of interconnections to regional system stability December 6,

36 Example Naval Station Norfolk Infrastructure dependencies inside/outside installation boundaries Electric Power Water\Wastewater Telecommunications Transportation Workforce Challenges December 6,