Presentation on the Community Resilience Program

Transcription

1 CIB Meeting Delft, The Netherlands May 21, 2015 Presentation on the Community Resilience Program Dr. Therese McAllister Engineering Laboratory National Institute of Standards and Technology U.S. Department of Commerce

2 What is Resilience? The term "resilience" means the ability to prepare for and adapt to changing conditions and withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions* In the context of community resilience, the emphasis is not solely on mitigating risk, but on implementing measures to ensure that the community recovers to normal, or near normal function, in a reasonable timeframe. *As defined in Presidential Policy Directive 21.

3 Resilience Concept Maintain acceptable levels of functionality during and after disruptive events Recover full functionality within a specified period of time Functionality Modifications before disruptive events that improve system performance Lost Functionality Residual Functionality Aging System Event Time to Full Recovery Repairs after disruptive event to restore system functionality Time Adapted from Bruneau, 2003 and McDaniels, 2008

4 What is a Community? The term community refers to a place that: Is designated by geographical boundaries Functions under the jurisdiction of a governance structure, such as a town, city, or county. Each community has its own identity based on its location, history, leadership, and available resources. Some systems (e.g., electric power) often extend beyond the boundaries of the community.

5 What is the Problem? Community Planning Inadequate tools to address community level performance Recovery is not part of the planning process Stove-piped codes and standards Buildings and other structures Transportation Water and Wastewater Electric power Communication Reliability for hazard events Service reliability The built environment is highly interconnected Codes and standards do not address system dependencies

6 45 to 81 Presidential Disaster Declarations are made every year

7 NIST Community Resilience Program Stakeholder Engagement* Community Resilience Planning Guide Implementation Guidelines Independent Resilience Panel Disaster Resilience Fellows NIST Research Systems-Based Modeling Community Resilience Assessment Tool Decision Support Tools Center of Excellence Integrated, multiscale modeling Data Ontology and Architecture Field and Validation Studies *Stakeholder Engagement component is called out in the President s Climate Action Plan

8 Community Needs Drive Functional Requirements for the Built Environment Social systems drive the performance requirements for our built environment Resilience levels for buildings and infrastructure systems depend on their role in the community

9 Community Resilience for the Built Environment Natural hazards Manmade hazards Degradation Climate change Performance Goals Mitigation Response Recovery Community resilience depends on the performance of the built environment and how it supports social, economic, and public institutions. Goal: Limit disruption to a duration desired by the community and minimize detrimental effects to the community.

10 Community Resilience Planning Guide for Buildings and Infrastructure Systems The Guide helps communities: Organize effectively to address resilience risks, goals, and priorities. Determine customized long-term resilience goals. Develop short- and long-term plans for buildings and infrastructure systems to achieve resilience goals. Prioritize improvements to the built environment based on their role in supporting social institutions and economic functions during recovery. Address infrastructure dependencies and cascading effects of system failures.

11 Guide Outline Volume 1 - Methodology Executive Summary Ch 1. Introduction Ch 2-6. Methodology and Planning Steps Ch 7. Future Directions Appendix: Planning Example Riverbend, USA Volume 2 - Reference Executive Summary Ch 9. Social Community Ch 10. Dependencies and Cascading Effects Ch 11. Buildings Ch 12. Transportation Systems Ch 13. Energy Systems Ch 14. Communications Systems Ch 15. Water & Wastewater Systems Ch. 16 Community Resilience Metrics

12 Planning Steps for Community Resilience 1. Form a collaborative planning team 2. Understand the situation Social Dimensions Built Environment 3. Determine goals and objectives 4. Plan development 5. Plan preparation, review, and approval 6. Plan implementation and maintenance Downtown Cedar Rapids, Iowa, during the 2008 floods Recovery and Reinvestment Plan

13 Establish Desired Performance Goals for the Built Environment Performance goals are independent of hazard events. Community functions are needed during recovery, such as acute health care, 911 call centers, emergency response Define goals in terms of time needed to restore functionality. Use goals to help prioritize repair and reconstruction efforts. Goals may suggests criteria for new construction and retrofit of existing construction.

14 Anticipated Performance of Existing Built Environment Anticipated performance (restoration of function) during recovery depends Damage level - Condition and capacity of structural and nonstructural systems Recovery time - Materials, equipment, and labor needed for restoration Dependencies on other systems that may be damaged Hurricane Irene Hurricane Katrina

15 Example Summary Resilience Matrix Infrastructure Critical Facilities Recovery Time Buildings Transportation Energy Water Wastewater Communication Desired Performance Anticipated Performance Superstorm Sandy

16 Next Steps Public Comment and Version 1.0 Public comments encouraged through June 26. Update Guide based on comments with planned release in September 2015 Independent Resilience Panel Focus on identifying gaps in practice and knowledge Develop supporting guidance and best practices to help users of the Guide. Support Use of the Guide How to best work with communities interested in using the Guide? Gather feedback to support revisions to Guide

17 NIST Research Activities Community Resilience Assessment Tool Economics Analysis Tools Systems-Based Modeling Center of Excellence

18 Community Resilience Assessment Methods Develop first-generation tools to assess resilience at the community scale. Identify physical and social systems, their attributes and dependencies, and key functions for recovery. Three types of metrics in use: Recovery Time, Economic Vitality, Social Well-being Assessment of existing methodologies includes: SPUR, Oregon UNISDR Disaster Resilience Scorecard CARRI Community Resilience System Communities Advancing Resilience Toolkit Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities Rockefeller City Resilience Framework NOAA Coastal Resilience Index FEMA Hazus Methodology

19 Economic Analysis Tools Develop tools to help communities make investment decisions and evaluate alternate investment decisions. Compare benefits and costs for direct and indirect consequences Account for uncertainty in information Account for time value of money Collect data and develop models that include recovery of community functions. Develop draft standard practices and submit to ASTM.

20 Community Systems Modeling Develop systems-based methods and models to provide the science basis-for assessing community resilience. Include dependencies among buildings and infrastructure systems, and the social systems they support. Conducting assessment of current capabilities: Infrastructure system models focus on quality of service, not performance of physical systems Some models include user behaviors Some water system models are beginning to consider resilience concepts, such a meeting performance goals rather than compliance with standards Dependencies on other systems are generally not modeled

21 NIST Center of Excellence (CoE) The Center for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning

22 Community Resilience Center of Excellence Develop and enable the science for communities to evaluate disaster resilience and make risk-informed decisions. Objectives Develop an integrated, computational modeling environment (NIST-CORE) for community systems to support development of new standards and tools for assessment and decision making Foster the development of data architectures and data management tools to enable disaster resilience planning Use field studies to validate resilience data architectures, data management tools, and models

23 Concluding Remarks Stakeholder Engagement Improving resilience does not have to be prohibitively expensive. Measures to improve resilience can be implemented over many years. The Community Resilience Planning Guide will help communities prioritize buildings and infrastructure to improve resilience. Supporting Research Tools supporting decision making need to include dependencies between and among social, economic, and physical infrastructure systems. Science-based tools and metrics are needed to move from qualitative to quantitative tools and metrics.

24 NIST Contact Website: Guide: Or google NIST Resilience Planning Guide General

25 THANK YOU