Excerpt Poland: LTE and Fiber Rollouts to Turn Telecom Market Around, M&A to Continue This report is part of Pyramid Research s series of Europe Country Intelligence Reports February 2014 Edition Olena Kaplan, Associate analyst Kerem Arsal, Manager
Report highlights Poland is one of the most attractive markets in Central and Eastern Europe, being the second largest in the region after Russia: in 2013 it generated service revenue of $11.5bn, down 2.0% from 2012. That decline was due to a drop in revenue from voice services, as fixed-to-mobile substitution continued to reduce fixed voice revenue and as lower mobile termination rates affected mobile revenue. Over the next five years, however, we expect the market to grow at a CAGR of 3.86%, with mobile data being the fastest growing segment of the market, driven by deployments of LTE. The number of mobile subscriptions in Poland at the end of 2013 exceeded 56m, which equals a penetration rate of 146% of the population. Over the next five years, we expect the subscription total to grow at a CAGR of 2.8%, reaching more than 64m, for a penetration rate of 169%. This growth will be driven by the use of multiple SIM cards, which is due to intensifying mobile competition and an increase in types of services consumed, such as M2M. The Polish fixed-line narrowband segment, however, continues to decline: by the end of 2013, the penetration rate reached 16.3% of the population. The main reason for this trend is the decline in PSTN lines as households become mobile-only. We thus expect PSTN s share of total access lines to continue to shrink. Fixed and mobile data services will continue to grow, generating cumulative service revenue of $36.9bn over the next five years. Data growth will not only compensate for the loss of voice service revenue but will also turn total telecom revenue around, to a CAGR of 3.3% between 2013 and 2018. With pay-tv revenue, the rate will be 3.9% over the same period. Poland: LTE and Fiber Rollouts to Turn Telecom Market Around, M&A to Continue offers a precise, incisive profile of Poland s converged telecommunications, media and technology sectors based on proprietary data from our research in Poland s market. It provides detailed competitive analysis of both the fixed and mobile sectors, tracks the market shares of technologies and services, and monitors the introduction and spread of new technologies. Published annually, this executive study provides a comprehensive view of Poland s communications market by analyzing key trends, evaluating near-term opportunities and assessing upcoming risks factors. Key findings of the report include: Mobile ARPS continued to decline in 2013, mainly because the regulator further reduced mobile termination rates. Data service uptake partially compensated for the decline in voice revenue. The Polish telecom market is very fragmented, and consolidation is still underway. While fixed broadband coverage in Poland was one of the lowest in Europe at 69% at the end of 2012, Poland s leading operators, with the help of EU Funds, will continue to invest in broadband deployments. Although it will remain the smallest of all pay-tv market segments, we expect paid DTT to grow the fastest over the forecast period a CAGR of 56.5%. 2
Revenue (US$ billions) Report highlights (cont d) POLAND COMMUNICATIONS MARKET REVENUE, 2011-2018 $14 $12 Pay-TV Broadband Internet $10 $8 Fixed VoIP Fixed circuit-switched voice Mobile data $6 Mobile voice $4 $2 $0 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Sources: Pyramid Research, operators 3
Table of contents Executive summary Market and competitor overview Poland in a regional context Economic, demographic and political context Regulatory environment Demand profile Service evolution Competitive landscape Major market players Segment analysis Mobile services Fixed services Pay-TV Identifying opportunities 4 ID# 1368
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