16 Task 16 Energy Services www.ieadsm.org IEA DSM Task 16 Innovative Energy Services Phase IV Life-Cycle Costing; Deep Retrofit ; Simplified M&V; Crowd-Financing for EE & RE projects & Energy Services Taxonomy Task Status Report 47 th IEA DSM ExCo meeting Stockholm, Sweden, March 16-18, 2016 Jan W. Bleyl, Task 16 Operating Agent Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 1
Executive Summary 1. Key Accomplishments in last 6 month 2016: ð National stakeholder workshop Einsparcontracting in öffentlichen Gebäuden, Switzerland => further NIAs ð Think Tank work on sm&v (Simplified M&V), Deep Retrofit bankable case study 2. Dissemination: University master classes Energy Services 3. Preparations for Phase IV almost accomplished Budget: 196.700 (3,3 countr.) => 151.700,- EUR (3,3 countr.) 4. Participants: Canada (in kind only?), GIZ (for 9 m), Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland, Germany (in kind) Maybes : Austria, Belgium, Sweden? Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 2
Energetic Solutions Jan W. Bleyl Accomplishments since last meeting Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 3
Accomplishments since last meeting (cont d) Think Tank (subtask 20) (1/2) 1. Life-Cycle Costing assessment: Submission of an abstract for ECEEE Industrial Summer Studies: Economic Pre-Feasibility Life-Cycle Cost Methodology for Decision Makers. Paper submission in cooperation with IEA ECB Annex 61 => not accepted! 2. Life-Cycle Cost & Deep Retrofit : Application of investment-grade bankable life cycle cost tools to Annex 61 case studies. Work in close cooperation with IEA ECB Annex 61 Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 4
Accomplishments since last meeting (cont d) Think Tank (subtask 20) (2/2) 3. Simplified measurement & verification: Research started for a peer-reviewed academic journal publication. Working title: Simplified measurement & verification + quality assurance instruments for energy, water and CO2 savings. Methodologies and examples. In close cooperation with EfficiencyOne, Nova Scotia 4. Crowd-Financing for Energy efficiency and renewable investment: Identification, analyses and modeling work for 2 3 cases studies. In close cooperation with GIZ Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 5
Energetic Solutions Jan W. Bleyl Activities + goals for next 6 month Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 6
A Teaser of our current work: Life Cycle Cost Analyses of a Building 'Deep Retrofit' Case => Economic (pre-)feasibility? => Financiability? => Bankability? => Communication with stakeholders? Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 7
Case study office building: Deep Retrofit to Passive House standard Key figures: ð Floor area: 1.680 m 2 ð Energy cost baseline: 39,000 EUR/a => price developm.: 2%/a (1,5%/a) ð CAPEX (energy retrofit only): 560,000 EUR (330 EUR/m 2 ) Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 8
Goals and questions to be answered Detailed technical, economic and financial analyses of a Deep Retrofit business case: Ø Economic viability and sensitivity analyses? Ø Finance: Reporting, financial engineering, & due diligence Ø How to communicate with decision makers? Other applications: Ø Economic and technical project management and risk asessment over life cycle => e.g. sensitive parameters Ø ESCos: Proposal calculation Ø Support policy design, e.g. subsidy or funding demand calculations (amount and timing) Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 9
Baseline-, revenue development of heat energy savings (84 EUR/MWh, 2%/a) 60.000 50.000 Source: [Bleyl 2016] baseline + revenue development heat savings 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 remaining costs revenues Investor/ESCo revenues customers baseline Totals over project cycle: - baseline: 1,23 Mio EUR - revenues customers: 0,05 Mio EUR - revenues Investor/ESCo: 1 Mio EUR - remaining costs: 0,19 Mio EUR 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 10
Net Project-, Equity- & Debt- Cash Flows; annual profit (annual, cummulative) EUR 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 0-100.000-200.000-300.000-400.000-500.000-600.000 Source: [Bleyl 2016] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 key figures: - IRR: P-CF: 3,7%, E-CF: 5,2% - NPV: P-CF: 0,06 Mio. EUR, E-CF: 0,02 Mio. EUR - PBT: P-CF: 19,4 years, E-CF: 21,9 years Annual profit (EBT) project cash-flow (P-CF) equity cash-flow (E-CF) debt cash flow cumulative equity cash-flow cumulative project cash-flow cumulative annual profit Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 11
Profit & Loss figure EUR 60.000 50.000 40.000 Source: [Bleyl 2016] profits and losses 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 revenues from savings capitalized internally produced assets activated construction grants internal staff costs depreciations interest costs misc. costs Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 12
Debt Services; Cash Flow Available for Debt Service; Debt Service- & Loan Life Cover Ratios EUR 35.000 25.000 15.000 5.000-5.000 Debt Services, Cash Flow Available for Debt Service (CFADS) and Debt Service Cover Ratio (DSCR) Source: [Bleyl 2014] key figures: - effective interest rate debt capital: 2,53 % - loan sum: 0,41 Mio.EUR - interest sum: 0,14 Mio.EUR 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 - Loan Life Cover Ratio: 1,3 - minimal DSCR: -1,5-15.000 principal payments interest payment Cash Flow Available for Debt Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5-1,0-1,5-2,0 Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 13
Spec. revenue-, cost structure developm.; MWh heat savings/a; LCoH EUR/MWh 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Source: [Bleyl 2016] Levelized cost of heat savings (LCoH) incl. subsidies: 69,4 EUR/MWh Levelized cost of heat savings (LCoH) without subsidies: 75,4 EUR/MWh 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 MWh/a Specific revenues Investor/ESCo specific production costs OPEX specific production costs CAPEX heating savings Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 14
Energetic Solutions Jan W. Bleyl Activities + goals for next 6 month Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 15
Activities + goals for next 6 month (cont d) Think Tank (subtask 20) (1/4) 1. Life-Cycle Cost & Deep Retrofit : Preparation of a paper for ECEEE Industrial Summer Studies: Economic Pre- Feasibility Life-Cycle Cost Methodology for Decision Makers and Deep Retrofit Case Study. Paper submission in cooperation with IEA ECB Annex 61 2. Life-Cycle Cost & Deep Retrofit : Application of prefeasibility and bankable life cycle cost tools => Further case studies from Task 16 participants. Comparison of different LCC Tools (e.g. RETSCREEN). Work in close cooperation with IEA ECB Annex 61 Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 16
Activities + goals for next 6 month (cont d) Think Tank (subtask 20) (2/4) 3. Simplified measurement & verification (sm&v): Finalize research for a peer-reviewed journal publication on Simplified measurement & verification + quality assurance instruments for energy, water and CO 2 savings. Methodologies and examples. In close cooperation with EfficiencyOne, Nova Scotia, Canada Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 17
Activities + goals for next 6 month (cont d) Think Tank (subtask 20) (3/4) 4. Crowd-Financing for Energy efficiency and renewable investments: Analyses of cases studies: Can Crowd-Financing contribute to solve financing bottlenecks for EE and RE projects? E.g. through access to equity or (cheaper) debt financing? In particular for smaller projects in SME and communities? Bridge the mezzanine financing gap? Reduce risks and transaction cost? Analyses based on detailed LCC modeling of 2 3 cases studies. In cooperation with GIZ and KRITTER Advisory Services Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 18
Task 16 - Phase IV timetable update Phase IV has started operation on 01 July 2015 and will end 30 June 2018. Task 16 - Phase IV Timetable (as of February 2016) Current Status Task 16 - Phase III! " Task 16 - Phase IV! 2015 2016 2017 2018 Task 16 - Phase IV Subtasks Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 19 IEA DSM Energy Services Expert Platform Expert Meetings + Stakeholder Workshops 20 Think Tank for innovative Energy Services Key publications 21 Coaching of National Implementation Activities 22 Dissemination & Cooperation (international + national) 23 Management & Reporting (to ExCo) Task 16 Meeting and Stakeholder Workshop Main Think Tank publications ExCo Meeting ExCo reporting: PMD, annual and EoT All scheduled events and reporting targets have been met. Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 19
Task 16 Budget vs. Expenditures (Phase IV) (as of 12 February 2016 excl. VAT) Subtasks Total Cumulative budget spending % spent Remaining unit EUR EUR % EUR 19 Energy Services Expert Platform 24.640 3.696 15% 20.944 20 Think Tank for innovative Energy Services 21 Coaching of National Implementation Activities 22 Dissemination & Cooperation (international + national) 77.440 7.040 9% 70.400 15.840 5.280 33% 10.560 13.200 1.980 15% 11.220 23 Management & Reporting (to ExCo) 44.000 5.720 13% 38.280 Subtotals 175.120 23.716 14% 151.404 Travel costs 17.700 1.770 10% 15.930 Other costs 3.880 0 0% 3.880 Totals 196.700 25.486 13% 171.214 Spending of last reporting period: 25,486 EUR, adding to total expenditure of 25,486 EUR (= 13 % of total budget) Income during last reporting period: 1,700 EUR (against 1,700 EUR billed), Total Jan W. Bleyl income: Energetic Solutions 1,700 IEA DSM Task EUR 16 Energy (= Services 1 % April of 13, total 2016 slide budget, 20 assuming all bills paid)
Participants Task 16 Phase IV: 3,3 Yes, 2 in kind, 4 Maybes => Any ExCo news? Canada (NE: Sarah Mitchel, Mark Robertson) GIZ (for 9 month) (NE: Simon Zellner) Netherlands (NE: Albert Hulsfhoff) Norway (NE: Emma Julie Otervik, Forsvarsbygg) Switzerland (NE: Markus Bareit, Gabriela Weiss Di Spirito) Germany: in kind cooperation with Annex 61 (Deep Retrofit) Maybes?: Austria (NE: Christoph Amann...?) Belgium (NE: B. De Bruyn, J. Coolen, L. Vanstraelen...?) Sweden (NE Lotta Bangens...?)...? Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 21
Matters for the ExCo 1. Approve the Task Status Update Report Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 22
16 Task 16 Energy Services www.ieadsm.org Energetic Solutions Jan W. Bleyl Task 16 Innovative Energy Services Thank you very much for your continued support! Operating Agent contacts: Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions Lendkai 29, 8020 Graz, Austria Tel: +43 650 7992820 Email: EnergeticSolutions@email.de Jan W. Bleyl Energetic Solutions IEA DSM Task 16 Energy Services April 13, 2016 slide 23