Leading The Way With CDMA Adam Gould CTO, CDMA VP Technology Management and Strategy Nokia Mobile Phones Business Group 27 May 2004 1 NOKIA
Agenda CDMA Market Outlook CDMA Technology Evolution Nokia in CDMA Summary 2 NOKIA
3 NOKIA CDMA Market Outlook
Worldwide CDMA subscriptions passed the 200m milestone in 1Q04 North America 83,000,000 Europe & Russia 3,000,000 Caribbean & Latin America 30,000,000 Africa & Middle East Asia-Pacific 85,000,000 Subscriptions at the end of March 2004 Source: CDMA Development Group, EMC, Nokia. 4 NOKIA
Global CDMA subscription base projected to increase steadily during the next 5 years 500 Cumulative CDMA subscriptions (EOY, millions) 400 300 200 100 Global Europe & Africa Latin America North America China APAC 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Nokia, March 2004 5 NOKIA
N. America CDMA 1Q04 Subscriptions 83m Verizon, US 37m 45% Sprint, US 18m 22% Alltel, US 7m 9% Bell Canada, CA 3m 4% LSA CDMA LSA CDMA Almost 2 nd Largest Region 1Q04 Subscriptions 32m Vivo, BR 15m 45% Telcel, VE 3m 8% Telefonica, MX 2m 7% Unefon, MX 1m 4% Iusacell, MX 1m 3% GLOBAL CDMA 1Q04 Subscriptions 202m Verizon 37m 18% China Unicom 22m 11% SK Telecom 18m 9% Sprint 18m 9% KDDI 17m China CDMA 1Q04 Subscriptions 22m China Unicom 22m 100% Korea CDMA 1Q04 Subscriptions 35m SK Telecom 18m 53% KT Freetel 11m 32% LG Telecom 5m 15% Rest of APAC CDMA 8% 1Q04 Japan CDMA Subscriptions 11m Reliance, IN 6m 57% Tata, IN 1m 7% Hutchison/CAT, TH 1m 5% (Percentages indicate the operators s share of global / regional CDMA subs base) 1Q04 Subscriptions 17m KDDI 17m 100% Source: Nokia, May 2004 6 NOKIA
8 of CDMA s Largest Operators in LSA Subscriptions (m) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Verizon Wireless, US Source: Nokia, May 2004 7 NOKIA China Unicom SK Telecom, KR Top 10 - average subs base 15m no 11-20 average subs base 1.5m Rest fragmented Sprint, US Subs 4Q03 Subs 1Q04 KDDI, JP ViVo, BR Korea Telecom Freetel, KR Alltel, US Reliance, IN LG Telecom, KR Bell Canada, CA Telcel, VE Telus, CA Telefonica, MX US Cellular, US Telefonica, PE Smartcom, CL Unefon, MX CTI, AR Sercom, GT Iusacell, MX Tata, IN Hutchison / CAT, TH 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Accumulated share of global
Brazil Current state: 15m CDMA subscriptions AMPS still required Key trends going forward: Services uptake high MMS now launched WAP evolution continues Consolidation effect positive New Brand (Vivo) Unified services National programs Penetration growth at low- end Growth elsewhere in LTA as well 8 NOKIA
CDMA Market Outlook 2004 CDMA will continue to gain global share, growing faster than total Global CDMA market volume is expected to increase by >20% YoY in 2004. Growth is fuelled by: Rapid subscriber up-take in developing markets (China, India, Brazil) Increasing renewal rates in the more mature, developed economies. 9 NOKIA
10 NOKIA Evolution of CDMA
Explosion of Technologies in CDMA Air Interface Evolution VMR H.264 Advanced Video Codec IPv6 IMS Java 11 NOKIA
Evolution to High Speed Data Standards cdma2000 Revision 0-2x Voice Capacity - 153kbps PS cdma2000 Revision B cdma2000 - Minor changes Revision A - Simultaneus Voice and Data - 307kbps PS CDMA2000 Revision C - Voice and Data -3.1 Mbps FL -307 kbps RL 1xEV-DV CDMA2000 Revision D - 3.1 Mbps FL - 1.8 Mbps IS-95A - 1 st Step - 14.4kbps CS IS-95B - 64kbps - Improved SHO IS-856 1xEV-DO - No Voice - 2.4Mbps FL - 153 Kbps RL IS-856 1xEV-DO Revision A - 3.1 Mbps FL - 1.8 Mbps RL 1995 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 12 NOKIA
LSA Data Deployment Competitiveness IS-2000 IS-2000 Rev 0 DV Rev C DV Rev D IS-856 1xEV-DO Rev 0 DO Rev A GSM GSM/GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA 2003 2004 2005 2006 CDMA Has a Highly Competitive Evolution Path! 13 NOKIA
What s Next for CDMA Air Interface Standards? P-P VoIP on DV and DO Higher speed FL Smart Antennas 4G Capacity Enhancements 14 NOKIA
Increasing Quality Evolution of Voice Services in CDMA Paradigm Shift VMR-WB 2003 Capacity Quest Wideband Wideband speech speech coding coding offers offers a a quantum quantum leap leapin in quality quality SMV 2001 EVRC 1995 QCELP13 1994 IS-96A 1993 Quality Quest Increasing Data Rate 15 NOKIA
VMR-WB at Glance Variable Multirate Wideband Codec A paradigm shift in voice and audio quality Able to trade off quality with capacity 1 st globally interoperable codec Works both in VoIP & circuit-switched Extendable to music 16 NOKIA
H.264 Advanced Video Codec (AVC) The new joint ITU/MPEG-4 video coding standard Superior Performance Robust in wireless error environments 2x Network Capacity Video Call rates 2-3x HQ voice calls ½ the storage, handset and server Globally Interoperable 17 NOKIA Optimal video experience over 1x
IPv6 technology enables new mobile services Peer-to-peer services Network Gaming Push services Mobility Always On Global Reachability Presence 18 NOKIA Seamless Mobility
IMS is a standardized SIP-based framework for IP communications Terminal-to-terminal connections for all types of IP-based services Across operator networks Independent of the access technology IP Multimedia Subsystem IMS Application Servers (Operator & 3 rd Party) The IP Multimedia Subsystem Presence Location Messaging (IMS) provides Server centralized Server Server registration, session control and charging mechanisms for operators and application developers. Control Server Group Server Subscriber Services DB PTT Server Gaming Server Server IMS Supports Multiple Radio Access Networks (1x, GSM, WCDMA ) SIP Streaming video Peter: from 00:00:00 Bill: Thomas: 00:00:00 > Peter: hey, look what just passed by! Invite player Chat Push to Stream SIP Game data SIP Quit Streaming video IP IP Connection 19 NOKIA IMS Supports Multiple Packet Core Networks (1x, GPRS )
IPv6, VoIP and IMS services VoIP and real time IMS services Require always-on data connections with mobility. With Mobile IPv4, VoIP quality falls dramatically during handoffs due to triangle routing IPv6 and Mobile IPv6 solve this problem Mobile IPv6 supports route optimization reduces roundtrip time. Fast handoffs reduce context transfer delays. Allows seamless inter-access technology handoffs of VoIP and data sessions e.g. WLAN to CDMA IPv6, Mobile IPv6 and Fast handoffs are necessary for VoIP services 20 NOKIA
Java is the leading mobile application development environment Over 85 mobile operators worldwide have deployed Java download services* (December 2003) Over 200 million Java enabled handsets on market already by beginning 2004* Over 200 Java handset models by 27 mobile device vendors already on the market* Over 3 million Java developers worldwide* 8 10 Mar03 Dec03 Americas 36 39 17 14 Mar03 Dec03 Mar03 Dec03 EMEA APAC & China Global mobile downloads: 2.7 Billion in 2003 2003: ~10 Million Java downloads globally / month ** 2004: ~15 Million Java downloads globally / month ** Source: * Sun Microsystems 21 NOKIA ** Nokia estimate
But Growth in CDMA Still Needs Reduction of Fragmentation Adding Cost Fewer phone models Competition with GSM Demands These Steps Interoperability Within CDMA Between CDMA and GSM Roaming No technical issues 22 NOKIA
23 NOKIA Nokia in CDMA
Nokia Committed to Lead with CDMA 13 year history of dedicated CDMA research Over 40 million CDMA handsets and over 35 models produced Leading edge chipset development Pioneering development in next generation technologies Major standards influencer and contributor Leading role in shaping the direction of the CDMA industry 24 NOKIA
Pace Continuously Increasing: Customer Base Expansion in 2003 In 2003, Nokia sold CDMA phones to 65 operators in 25 countries 25 NOKIA
Nokia Product Range Expansion High-end / Symbian Well performing CDMA engine 1x, GPS and Phone category expansion 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 26 NOKIA
Nokia s First s in CDMA Technology World s First 1xEV-DV High-Speed Data Call World s First Dual-Stack IPv6/IPv4 CDMA handset Variable Rate Multimode Wideband Speech Codec H.264 Advanced Video Codec CDMA-GSM MMS Connectivity IMS in CDMA TI/ST Chipset Alternative Many more to come! 27 NOKIA
Summary CDMA is a big business And an even bigger opportunity! 28 NOKIA
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