IP Backbone Opportunities in Asia/Pacific (Executive Summary) Executive Summary
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1 IP Backbone Opportunities in Asia/Pacific (Executive Summary) Executive Summary Publication Date: September 9, 2002
2 Author Chee Eng To This document has been published to the following Cluster codes: TELC-WW-EX-0423 For More Information... In North America and Latin America: In Europe, the Middle East and Africa: In Asia/Pacific: In Japan: Worldwide via gartner.com: Entire contents 2002 Gartner, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice
3 IP Backbone Opportunities in Asia/Pacific (Executive Summary) Figure 1 Asia/Pacific IP Backbone Bandwidth The number of Internet subscribers continues to soar in Asia/Pacific. And with the growth, it has created a new growth industry IP transit, a bandwidth service provided by carriers to ISPs for carrying traffic on the Internet. Gartner Dataquest's annual ISP market study revealed that the number of subscribers jumped 31 percent to 58 million in This is expected to triple to 130 million by Growth is propelled by the large number of new users coming online, especially in developing countries such as China, India and Thailand, and the rapid takeoff of broadband in developed markets such as SouthKorea,TaiwanandJapan. The soaring subscriber growth has created a huge demand for bandwidth. The total international IP backbone bandwidth in Asia rose 92 percent to reach 79 Gbps in December This is forecast to rise almost eight times as much to 623 Gbps by 2006, a CAGR of 51 percent (see Figure 1). Revenue is also growing at a healthy pace, albeit at a much slower pace than IP backbone capacity. This is because of big price declines in the past 18 months, the result of excessive price competition. Nevertheless, revenue growth is buoyed up by higher traffic as a result of the robust subscriber growth. The Asia/Pacific IP transit revenue rose 33 percent to reach US$2 billion in December This is forecast to double to US$4.3 billion in 2006, a CAGR of 16 percent (see Figure 2). Mbps 700, , , , , , , Source: Gartner Dataquest (April 2002) Gartner, Inc. 1
4 2 IP Backbone Opportunities in Asia/Pacific (Executive Summary) Figure 2 Asia/Pacific IP Transit Revenue Millions of U.S. Dollars 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Others South Korea New Zealand Japan India Hong Kong Thailand Singapore Malaysia Indonesia China Australia Taiwan Philippines Source: Gartner Dataquest (April 2002) Big Challenges The strong growth in bandwidth and revenue present a rosy picture. But beneaththesurfacelieshugechallenges. For a start, bandwidth demand is not growing as fast as some bullish industry players expected. Just two years ago, Worldcom was predicting that Internet traffic would double every 100 days. This is clearly not happening, even in broadband access markets. Excess bandwidth and intense competition have also resulted in severe price commoditization, dramatically eroding the margin of IP backbone operators. Also, many ISPs are struggling to survive, limiting their ability to buy more bandwidth. These problems are unlikely to go away anytime soon because of continued capacity glut and intense competition. Despite the current problems, Gartner Dataquest's long-term outlook for this sector is positive. IP transit is an essential service for the Internet and will continue to show steady and sustainable growth during the next five years, along with the robust growth of the Internet. In the short term, a shakeout is imminent because of rampant price discounting. But those that ride out this difficult period will emerge in a much stronger position as the nature of this market makes it hard to dislodge entrenched players. Over time, prices will also stabilize and may even increase as oversupply of capacity is brought more in line with demand and weak players are weeded out of the market Gartner, Inc. September 9, 2002
5 IP Backbone Opportunities in Asia/Pacific (Executive Summary) 3 As IP backbones will be the underlying network for many services in the future, we believe it will provide a strategic competitive advantage for carriers that succeed in this segment. By itself, the service is unlikely to be lucrative, as bandwidth is a commodity and will remain so for a long time. But the network infrastructure built to deliver this service can be leveraged to offer higher-value services, such as voice and corporate data. With more services and revenue, an IP backbone operator will achieve even greater economies of scale and cost efficiency, giving it a big advantage when competing against other players, especially on price-sensitive services. However, Gartner Dataquest believes that only a small number of large players will be successful in this sector. A player needs access to inexpensive capacity, which typically requires heavy upfront capital investments in cable capacity. Operating expenses are also extremely high for those competing on a regional or global basis. A player also must achieve sufficient economies of scale to bring down costs. This is a challenge because Asia, while large, is a fragmented market. As price competition will remain brutal during the next few years, a player needs either strong financing or revenue from other services to finance the expansion into this new segment. Players that depend solely on IP transit will find it hard to stay in this market during the next two years. The risks are high and this is a game suitable only for large players. But once a player becomes entrenched, it is difficult for new players to dislodge it from its position as customers favor large players with extensive networks, customer base and peering relationships a good example where the big gets bigger. For the full report, see the Gartner Dataquest Focus Report "IP Backbone Opportunities in Asia/Pacific" (TCPS-WW-FR-0134) Gartner, Inc. September 9, 2002
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