The Evolution of Mobile Communications Networks: 4G LTE-Advanced and 5G Andy Sutton Principal Network Architect Network Strategy 12 th November 2014
Contents 1. We ve come a long way in a short period of time 2. Short-medium term traffic forecasts 3. What s driving future growth 4. Forecasting average usage per user 5. User behaviour 6. Longer term forecasts and the impact of video 7. 4G evolution LTE-Advanced 8. EE and 5G 9. 5G technical research topics 10. Summary 2
We ve come a long way since GSM voice GSM GPRS (incl. EDGE) UMTS (incl. HSDPA/HSUPA/HSPA+) LTE (incl. VoLTE & LTE-A) 3
Data Demand is set for considerable growth over the next 5 years as the UK becomes increasingly mobile-centric 12x MONTHLY DATA DEMAND (PB) 2x 4x 6.5x 9.5x 2G 3G 4G 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Smartphone penetration grows Early 4G adoption Limited LTE Device portfolio Diversification and increase in available content drives usage Device capability drives usage LTE Device portfolio diversifies Strong growth in 4G adoption High-bandwidth services proliferate Mature data adoption LTE devices dominate 4G becomes default technology Behavioural shifts in usage
Key growth drivers DEVICES SERVICES/APPS 2018 67% VIDEO DEMAND 12x growth 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 PERFORMANCE COVERAGE
The increase in AUPU seen on devices using the 4G network is a key driver for growth as the 4GEE base grows Non-4G AUPU set to double over next 5 years 5 x increase in 4G AUPU 2013 4G device AUPU was 50% higher than 3G device AUPU 2018 4G device AUPU will be 6.3 x non-4g device
Device type and performance both impact usage
Monthly Data Demand (PB) Monthly Data Demand (PB) Video resolution penetration Video Data rate (Mbps) Long-term UK market forecast 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 - E-mail/IM/Browsing/Download/Music Augmented Reality Mobile Gaming 22x Dec-15 Dec-20 Dec-25 Dec-30 2030 76% DEMAND VIDEO 8K 4K HD SD Video Bitrate 100% 20 18 80% 16 14 60% 12 10 40% 8 6 20% 4 2 0% 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 800 600 400 200 - Non-Video Data Demand E-mail/IM/Browsing/Download/Music etc. Augmented Reality Mobile Gaming Dec-15 Dec-20 Dec-25 Dec-30 Streaming and video resolution are key drivers of long-term growth Other services will emerge and drive new revenue opportunities and capacity challenges 68% non-video demand
The latest hype?
LTE-Advanced LTE-Advanced features include: Downlink Carrier Aggregation Uplink Carrier Aggregation Downlink MIMO (>R8) Uplink MIMO Heterogeneous Networks (HetNets) Relays Self Organising Networks (SON) UE Advanced Receivers Coordinated Multipoint Transmission and Reception (CoMP)
EE is pro-actively contributing to the 5G eco-system Platinum Founding Member of the 5G Innovations Centre at the University of Surrey Supporting UK Government s objective to ensure the UK is a major player in 5G networks and services research and development - knowledge economy Supporting EU Horizon 2020 bids on behalf of UK academic organisations; financing leading edge research in the UK Working within International industry fora to develop 5G research and further understanding Engagements with global partners to influence the development of the 5G eco-system
Our 5G strategy? The same as our 4G strategy always stay one step ahead of demand for capacity, peak & average speeds, low-latency and innovative services.
And what does 5G look like. SON Separation of control and user plane Ultra lowlatency Application aware Ultra reliable Ultra high capacity On demand services Energy efficient Device to device Seamless mobility 5G Network (with 4G and evolved WiFi) In-building coverage New waveforms Wide area coverage New spectrum Stadiums and hotspots NFV SDN Always sufficient rate (speed) Massive MIMO Ultra dense networks Sharing Ultra-high definition video Internet of Things Full duplex Security
Summary 4G is the start of true mobile broadband an IP based multi-media communications system Demand is huge, and will keep growing We will continue to evolve 4G to increase capacity, increase speeds and enhance the experience 5G is at the fundamental research stage, but will complement 4G networks 5G will support ultra dense networks with even higher peak and average data rates, with ultra low-latency to enable the tactile web and immersive real-time video 4G can take us to 1Gbps; 5G is everything beyond that 14
THANK YOU andy.sutton@ee.co.uk