analysysmason.com RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT CELLULAR M2M DEVICE CONNECTIONS AND REVENUE: WORLDWIDE TRENDS AND FORECASTS 2015 2025 MICHELE MACKENZIE Analysys Mason Limited 2016
About this report This report presents our detailed 10-year worldwide forecast for machine-to-machine (M2M) device connections, M2M connectivity-related average revenue per connection (ARPC), and M2M connectivity-related revenue. We focus on the cellular M2M market in this report, but also provide a device connections forecast for the non-cellular market. We provide a forecast for eight regions, but will provide a countrylevel forecast in the near future. We continue to forecast eight industry sectors, as well as provide detailed forecasts on the applications within those sectors. WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT Senior executives for M2M business units Market analysts responsible for M2M market sizing. GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE Worldwide, split into 8 regions Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Developed Asia Pacific (DVAP) Emerging Asia Pacific (EMAP) Latin America (LATAM) Middle East and North Africa (MENA) North America (NA) Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) Western Europe (WE) KEY METRICS Machine-to-machine (M2M) device connections M2M connectivity-related average revenue per connection (ARPC) M2M connectivity-related revenue eight industry sectors, and 25 M2M applications (not including other ) within those sectors Automotive and transport Financial services Healthcare Industrial Public sector Retail Security Utilities network type split by cellular and non-cellular technology. Analysys Mason Limited 2016 2
Contents 6. Worldwide trends 7. Worldwide: Cellular M2M connections will grow at a 19% CAGR, but low car sales will contribute to slower-than-expected growth 8. Worldwide: The automotive and transport sector accounts for over 60% of cellular M2M connections through the period 2014 2025 9. Worldwide: The emerging market s share of cellular M2M connections will increase due to China s impact in emerging Asia Pacific 10. Emerging Asia Pacific will remain the largest cellular M2M market, reaching 572 million connections in 2025 almost 40% of the market 11. Worldwide: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue is expected to grow to USD23.6 billion by 2025, driven by a relatively high automotive ARPC 12. Worldwide: The healthcare, financial services and retail segments will generate higher ARPC, but represent small overall opportunities 13. Worldwide: Total M2M device connections will grow at CAGR 14%, and electric smart meters share will be 42% in 2025 14. Western Europe 15. Western Europe: the number of cellular M2M connections will continue to grow significantly from a relatively mature state 16. Western Europe: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue will grow to USD5 billion in 2025 due to a strong automotive sector 17. Central and Eastern Europe 18. Central and Eastern Europe: The automotive and transport and security sectors are the region s largest cellular M2M segments 19. Central and Eastern Europe: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue is expected to grow to USD1.7 billion in 2025 20. Middle East and North Africa 21. Middle East and North Africa: The number of M2M connections will increase at a 29% CAGR from a low base of 3 million in 2014 22. Middle East and North Africa: M2M connectivity revenue will reach just under USD1 billion in 2025 23. Sub-Saharan Africa 24. Sub-Saharan Africa: Connections will reach 38 million in 2025, but the application mix differs from other regions 25. Sub-Saharan Africa: Cellular M2M revenue growth is substantial but connectivity revenue remains small 26. Emerging Asia Pacific 27. Emerging Asia Pacific: China dominates M2M activity, but other EMAP markets are addressing the opportunity 28. Emerging Asia Pacific: Cellular M2M revenue will increase to USD6 billion, generated by a mix of applications 29. Developed Asia Pacific 30. Developed Asia Pacific: Cellular M2M connections will reach 114 million and will grow at a CAGR of 19% 31. Developed Asia Pacific: Cellular M2M revenue is expected to increase fivefold between 2014 and 2025 to over USD3 billion 32. North America 33. North America: The number of M2M connections will grow at a 15% CAGR, reflecting the relatively mature status of the market 34. North America: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue will reach USD5 billion in 2025 Analysys Mason Limited 2016 3
Contents 35. Latin America 36. Latin America: Cellular M2M connections will experience strong growth and will reach 90 million in 2025 37. Latin America: M2M connectivity revenue will grow to almost USD1.3 billion in 2025 38. Forecast methodology and assumptions 39. Comparison with previous forecasts and calibration with Analysys Mason s core forecasts 40. Market definitions (1) 41. Market definitions (2) 42. Market definitions (3) 43. Market definitions (4) 44. Definition of geographical regions 45. About the author and Analysys Mason 46. About the author 47. About Analysys Mason 48. Research from Analysys Mason 49. Consulting from Analysys Mason Analysys Mason Limited 2016 4
List of figures Figure 1: Cellular M2M connections, worldwide, 2013 2025 Figure 2: Cellular M2M connections by segment, worldwide, 2014 and 2025 Figure 3: Cellular M2M connections share by market type, 2013 2025 Figure 4: Cellular M2M connections (millions) by region, 2025 and CAGR 2014 2025 Figure 5: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue and ARPC, worldwide, 2013 2025 Figure 6: Cellular M2M ARPC by segment, worldwide, 2013 2025 Figure 7: Total M2M connections, worldwide, 2013 2025 Figure 8: Cellular M2M connections, Western Europe, 2013 2025 Figure 9: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue and ARPC, Western Europe, 2013 2025 Figure 10: Cellular M2M connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2025 Figure 11: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue and ARPC, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013 2025 Figure 12: Cellular M2M device connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2013 2025 Figure 16: Cellular M2M connections, Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2013 2025 Figure 17: Cellular M2M revenue and ARPC, Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2013 2025 Figure 18: Cellular M2M connections, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2013 2025 Figure 19: Cellular M2M revenue and ARPC, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2013 2025 Figure 20: Cellular M2M connections, North America, 2013 2025 Figure 21: Cellular M2M revenue and ARPC, North America, 2013 2025 Figure 22: Cellular M2M connections, Latin America, 2013 2025 Figure 23: Cellular M2M and ARPC, Latin America, 2013 2025 Figure 24: Comparison of cellular M2M connections, November 2014 and February 2016, Worldwide, 2013 2024 Figure 25a: Definitions of M2M verticals and applications Figure 25b: Definitions of M2M verticals and applications Figure 25c: Definitions of M2M verticals and applications Figure 26: Regional breakdown used in this report Figure 13: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue and ARPC, Middle East and North Africa, 2013 2025 Figure 14: Cellular M2M connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013 2025 Figure 15: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue and ARPC, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013 2025 Analysys Mason Limited 2016 5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Connections (billion) Cellular M2M device connections and revenue: worldwide trends and forecasts 2015 2025 Worldwide: Cellular M2M connections will grow at a 19% CAGR, but low car sales will contribute to slower-than-expected growth Machine-to-machine (M2M) continues to represent a strong growth opportunity for cellular operators. The number of cellular M2M connections worldwide will grow from 205 million in 2014 to over 1.3 billion in 2025. This will be driven by growth in the automotive and transport sector during the period between 2014 2025. We expect that cellular M2M connections will grow at a CAGR of 19% year-on-year over the forecast period, but growth will be slower than we reported in our previous M2M forecast. 1 Growth in the automotive sector remains strong, but a decline in car sales in some of the BRIC markets (Brazil, China and Russia) due to an uncertain macroeconomic climate will lengthen car replacement cycles and, therefore, adoption of embedded connectivity in passenger vehicles will be affected. Figure 1: Cellular M2M connections, worldwide, 2013 2025 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 CAGR 19% We have also revised downwards our assumptions about the deployment of cellular networks to connect electric smart meters, resulting in fewer utility connections. Smart meters continue to be the main driver of non-cellular M2M connectivity, and gas and water meters will be included in our forthcoming LPWA forecast. 1 For more information, see Analysys Mason s M2M device connections and revenue: worldwide forecast 2014 2024. Available at: www.analysysmason.com/m2m-forecast-2014. 0.0 Automotive and transport Financial services Healthcare Industrial Other Public sector Retail Security Utilities Source: Analysys Mason Analysys Mason Limited 2016 7
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Revenue (USD billion) ARPC (USD monthly) Cellular M2M device connections and revenue: worldwide trends and forecasts 2015 2025 Worldwide: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue is expected to grow to USD23.6 billion by 2025, driven by a relatively high automotive ARPC Figure 5: Cellular M2M connectivity revenue and ARPC, worldwide, 2013 2025 25 2.5 20 2.0 15 1.5 10 1.0 Cellular M2M connectivity revenue is forecast to grow from below USD5 billion in 2014 to USD23.6 billion in 2025, at a 16% CAGR. The revenue generated from different segments correlates closely to the share of connections for the dominant applications. 1 For example, the number of connections within the automotive and transport sector accounts for around 65% of total connections over the forecast period, and applications in this sector generate a corresponding share in revenue. The average revenue per connection (ARPC) for the automotive and transport segment is relatively high and, coupled with large volumes of connections, is an important sector in terms of revenue. - 5 0.5 0.0 In contrast, the share of revenue in the healthcare and retail segments is higher than their share of connections. Healthcare will account for around 5% of connections in 2025, but this segment will generate 11% of revenue because of the higher ARPCs associated with the applications. Similarly, digital signage in the retail segment contributes to a higher revenue weighting. Automotive and transport Healthcare Other Retail Utilities Financial services Industrial Public sector Security ARPC Source: Analysys Mason ARPC will decline sharply in the first few years of the forecast period from USD2.3 in 2014 to USD1.6 in 2025. We assume that the decline in connectivity ARPC will stabilise from 2020 onwards, due to the mix of applications, and slower price erosion in a maturing M2M market. 1 See updated revenue and ARPC definitions at the end of this report. Analysys Mason Limited 2016 11
CONTENTS WORLDWIDE TRENDS REGIONAL TRENDS WESTERN EUROPE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA EMERGING ASIA PACIFIC DEVELOPED ASIA PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND ANALYSYS MASON Analysys Mason Limited 2016 45
About the author Michele Mackenzie (Principal Analyst) is an analyst for Analysys Mason's IoT and M2M Solutions research programme. She has 15 years of experience as an analyst. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in February 2014, Michele was a freelance analyst with a focus on machine-tomachine (M2M) and Internet of Things (IoT) technology and trends including smart cities, transport, intelligent buildings, fleet management and telematics. She has written reports for Machina Research and produced research for other clients on areas such as mobile broadband and digital media. Michele worked for Ovum for 12 years where she focused on consumer mobile applications and held various roles including Practice Leader for Consumer Services. She has also worked as a consultant for Ovum's consultancy division. Analysys Mason Limited 2016 46
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PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN FEBRUARY 2016 Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7395 9000 Email: research@analysysmason.com www.analysysmason.com/research Registered in England No. 5177472 Analysys Mason Limited 2016. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any client-specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party. Analysys Mason Limited 2016