The Content of Storage Tom Coughlin Coughlin www.tomcoughlin.com Coughlin 2005 1
Outline Content Value Chain and Revenue Streams Storage and Entertainment Content Creation Applications for Consumer Electronics Disk Drive Projections Conclusions Coughlin 2005 2
Digital Content Value Chain PVR/DVR/set-tops Game Machines Mobile Devices Content Reception Content Creation Cameras Animation Content Distribution Content Editing Streaming Media VOD PPV Content Archiving Field Editing Studio Editing Special Effects Tape ATA Disk Arrays Optical Jukeboxes Coughlin 2005 3
Digital Content Distribution Chain From Scott Kipp s book Broadband Entertainment. Coughlin 2005 4
Many Digital Content Revenue Streams Formats Channel Device Applications HDTV (MPEG-2) Digital Cable (MPEG-2) Cable Telco TV/Set- Top Box PC Digital Cable VOD SVOD Content Applications & Services DVD Quality (MPEG-2) Internet streaming Satellite Broadcast Consumer Electronics Wireless Previewing Downloading Display Real Windows CD/DVD Portable Playback PVR From Isilon, SV 2003 Quicktime Internet Digital Radio MP3 Emerging Apps Coughlin 2005 5
Applications for Consumer Electronics Coughlin 2005 6
Storage Devices for Entertainment Reception Flash Memory Hard Disk Drives Optical Disks Coughlin 2005 7
Two Primary CE Market Storage Niches Static or Fixed Appliances Such as set top boxes, DVD Recorders/players, DVR/PVRs, etc. Mobile Devices Such as MP3 Players, Personal Video Players, Cell Phones, Still and Video Cameras, etc. Coughlin 2005 8
What Will CE Devices look like in 2010? 2010 Portable Device (Jim Gray, Microsoft) 100 Gips processor 1 GB RAM 1 TB disk 1 Gbps network Many form factors Example Mobile Communication and Intelligence Device Stores millions of still photos, thousands of MP3 files, hundreds of MPEG4 movies Ubiquitous mobile and fixed communication capability (all standard interfaces) Carries biometric and other security features and includes all your passwords and contacts With appropriate sensors this can be your life recorder to document your life (you are the entertainment) Coughlin 2005 9
Blue Ray Optical Disks and Drive By end of 2005 Blu Ray and HD-DVD Disks will be available with capacities up to 50 GB! Coughlin 2005 10
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Blu-ray Disc Delivers More Single-layer Dual-layer Recordable HP, 2005 Storage Visions Conference 0.7 0.7 8.5 4.7 4.7 Capacity 200GB+ Roadmap Coughlin 2005 11 15 30 20 25 50 50 CD DVD HD-DVD Blu-ray 5-10x Capacity of DVD 67-150% more capacity than HD-DVD
Optical Content Distribution Trends Holographic Disks Coughlin 2005 Source: Telcordia 3/03 12
Flash Memory Flash Format Compact Flash Type I Smart Media Card Size 42.8 x 36.4 x 3.3 mm 45.9 x 37.0 x.76 mm Capacities Standard Capacity (MB) 32 64 128 256 512 1024 2048 Performance Capacity (MB) 256 512 1024 2048 4096 Capacity (MB) 32 64 128 Multimedia Card 32.0 x 24.0 x 1.4 mm Capacity (MB) 16 32 64 128 TB Shipped 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 SD (Secure Digital) Card SD Expansion Card Palm OS Devices xd Picture Card Olypus & Fuji Digital Cameras Memory Stick (Standard & Magic Gate) Sony Devices 32.0 x 24.0 x 2.1 mm 32.0 x 24.0 x 2.1 mm 20.0 x 25.0 x 1.7 mm 50.0 x 21.5 x 2.8 mm Capacity (MB) 16 32 64 128 256 Capacity (MB) 32 64 128 256 512 Capacity (MB) 64 128 256 512 Capacity (MB) 16 32 64 128 Memory Stick Pro (Standard & Magic Gate) 50.0 x 21.5 x 2.8 mm Sony Devices 14 formats and growing Memory Duo Stick (Standard & Magic Gate) 50.0 x 21.5 x 2.8 mm Sony Devices Memory Duo Stick Pro (Standard & Magic Gate) 31.0 x 20.0 x 1.6 mm Sony Devices (1) Capacities as of September 2003 Coughlin 2005 13
Consumer Hard Disk Drive Form Factors 3.5-Inch Drives 0.85-Inch Drives 2.5-Inch Drives 1.0-Inch Drives Coughlin 2005 14
250 HDD Quarter by Quarter Public Technology Demonstrations and Product Announcements TECHNOLOGY 200 PRODUCT Expon. (TECHNOLOGY) y = 51.252e 0.0717x Areal Density in Gbpsi 150 100 Expon. (PRODUCT) y = 14.778e 0.108x 50 0 Q1 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2000 Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2001 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002 Q4 2002 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2003 Q1 2004 Q2 2004 Q3 2004 Q4 2004 Coughlin 2005 15
Perpendicular Recording Toshiba announced a 1.8 inch drive with perpendicular recording technology to be available in the second quarter of 2005. Perpendicular Recording improves thermal stability of recording, thus increasing areal density Development of perpendicular recording systems could cause an increase in areal density growth similar to that with the introduction of the MR head in the early 1990s We could find areal density growth in the next few years again exceeding 60% annually Illustration from Seagate Not all companies will convert to perpendicular recording at once, still life left in longitudinal recording Coughlin 2005 16
What this means By 2006 or 2007 we will have 1 TB 3.5-inch Disk Drives and 20 GB 1 inch drives! Coughlin 2005 17
Hitachi New Drives MIKEY Smallest Microdrive Available in 2 nd half 2005 Embedded version only PATA, CE-ATA, MMC-like 8 10GB capacity Targeting small handheld products, including multimedia phones SLIM Smallest 1.8 hard drive Single disk and 2-disk versions 60 80GB capacity Available in 2 nd half 2005 Embedded version PATA, CE-ATA (future) Targeting handheld audio and video products Coughlin 2005 18
Disk Drive ASP Trends (Weighted Average based on Seagate, Maxtor, and WD) 180 160 140 ~12% Annual ASP Decline ~9% ASP Decline from Q3 03 to Q3 04 ASP for HDD 120 100 80 60 y = -3.7453x + 147.81 40 20 0 Q4 98 Q1 99 Q2 99 Q3 99 Q4 99 Q1 00 Q2 00 Q3 00 Q4 00 Q1 01 Q2 01 Q3 01 Q4 01 Q1 02 Q2 02 Q3 02 Q4 02 Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Coughlin 2005 19
The Battle for Mobile Supremacy Flash HDD Coughlin 2005 20
Mobile Storage Factors Size Capacity Price Data Rate (BW) Power Usage Environmental Factors Coughlin 2005 21
System Cost vs. MB $1,000,000 $100,000 Total Cos $10,000 $1,000 $100 Flash HDD 10x 100x $10 $1 Jim Handy, Semico, 2005 Storage Visions Conference 32MB 64MB 128MB 256MB 512MB 1GB 2GB 4GB 8GB 16GB 32GB 64GB 128GB 256GB 512GB 1TB Coughlin 2005 22
DiskOnChip H1 vs. Mini SD vs. HDD HDD (best case) Mini SD DiskOnChip H1 DiskOnChip H1 Capacity 1.5 / 2 / 4GB 512MB / 1GB Cost (estimated) NOR-less enable Length Width Height DRAM read buffer Power consumption $50 to $90 No 32mm / 42.8mm 24mm / 36.4mm 3.3mm / 5mm Yes adds power 1000mW and up $27 to $42 No 21.5mm 20mm 1.4mm No 140mW Temp range Drop test 0 to 65 C Risky -40 to 85 C Good 512MB / 1GB $25 to $40 Yes saves cost 18mm 12mm 1.4mm No 20mW -40 to 85 C Excellent Scalable Best cost Smallest Best Power cons. Rugged Solid state vs. rotating media cost comparison (estimated): 2006 Flash is lower cost below 4GB 2008 Flash is lower cost below 8GB M-Systems, 2005 Storage Visions Conference Coughlin 2005 23
Small Hard Disk Drives Not The Answer For Mobile Phones 36.4 Based on Cornice 2GB dimensions 24.0 Products available in 2004 42.8 20.0 Measurements in mm 32.0 15.0 21.5 11.0 Thickness (mm) 5.0 2.1 1.4 1.0 Volume (mm 3 ) 7790 1613 605 165 Capacity* (min) 1 GB* (~$60) 32 MB(~$8) 16 MB(~$6) 16 MB(~$6) Capacity ( 04 max) Power 5 GB (~$70) 2 GB (~$140) 1 GB(~$70) 1000 mw * 20-50 mw 256 MB* (~$25) Shock Risky Excellent SanDisk, 2005 Storage Visions Conference Coughlin 2005 *1MB = 1 Million Bytes 24
current future Portable Consumer Digital Devices Flash implementation in CE will continue to grow HDD is an excellent choice for high capacity applications MP3 player Handheld Game PDA Game Console MP3 jukebox Automotive Storage Requirement Mobile phone Digital still camera Camcorders Video player With multi-functions 32 MB 64 MB 128 MB 256 MB 512 MB 1 GB 2 GB 4 GB 8 GB 16 GB 32 GB 64 GB Flash HDD Coughlin 2005 Hitachi GST, 2005 Storage Visions Conference 25
Or is it Mutual Admiration? A Mobile Storage Hierarchy Capacity Hard Disk Drives Not included here: power and size or optical storage Data Rate Nobody wants to be here! Flash Memory Environmental Performance Coughlin 2005 26
$/GB 1000 100 10 $/GB Advantage of HDDs Less for NAND Flash vs. Disc Smaller Drives OEM Nand Flash Data Point ~ $73/GB ~$43/GB ~$24/GB ~$13/GB Market Risks Nand flash pricing reductions to combat HDD entrance 3.3 mm high risk due to $/GB compared to flash Need cell phone real estate to allow 5mm HDD solutions 1 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Flash Chip 0.85" 1.0" 0.85" 3mm Samsung Flash Source: Seagate, 2005 Storage Visions Conference Coughlin 2005 27
Caparison of Small Form Factor HDD Capacities and Prices vs. Mainstream Flash 14 $80.00 Capacity (G 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 $70.00 $60.00 $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $10.00 $0.00 SanDisk announced an 8 GB Type 1 Compact Flash Toshiba announced it is possible to get 6-8 GB on a 0.85 inch disk drive 1.00" HDD Capacity 0.85" HDD Capacity Flash Capacity 1" HDD Price Flash Price Coughlin 2005 28
More (or maybe less) to Come Coughlin 2005 29
+ CE Volume is Very Sensitive to Product Price SSPL -VOLUME NPZ CE PRICE $99 $199 $299 Storage Unit Price is Large Percentage of Total BOM Cost From Cornice, 2003 Storage is a significant % of the BOM Costs for CE Devices! Hard Disk $50.00 $65.00 CE Device 30% Markup HDD Value $84.50 HDD Value 30% Markup Retailer HDD Value $109.85 30% Markup HDD Value (1.30 X 1.30 X 1.30) = 220% Consumer $199.99/220% = $90.90 BOM Cost $50.00/$90.90 = HDD is 55% of BOM $91.13 Distributor MSRP $199.99 Coughlin 2005 30
Two Extreme Poles of CE Disk Drive Integration --Driven by Cost-- Total Integration into the Host Total Integration onto the Drive Disk Drive Becomes A Chip Disk Drive Companies Become Contract Manufacturers for Host Companies Coughlin 2005 31
Methods of HDD CE Integration Tomorrow Today Coughlin 2005 Source: Pat Hanlon Brief, 2004 32
Replay TV Teardown --Put it on the Drive Board?-- The four-layer mainboard supports the tuner and more than 38 integrated circuits. The mainboard also provides multiple interface connections, including VGA, digital audio, infrared and S-Video, as well as the PC connection for storing and viewing photos. While virtually all devices found in the Replay TV unit are "catalog items," the architecture is certainly unique to the DVR application. Most key ICsincluding TeraLogic video processors and processor/logic components from PMC-Sierra and Xilinx-are connected to a shared PCI bus. Broadcom provides MPEG encoding functions, while a Philips device supplies video decode for external S-Video. Portelligent Teardown Report from March 24, 2003 EE Times Coughlin 2005 33
Integrate What Where? For single drive enabled applications perhaps integration on the drive board makes the most sense for the ultimate cost reduction For a multiple drive application such as network storage perhaps integration of as much electronics off the drive board as possible on the system side offers the greatest cost reduction Coughlin 2005 34
Network Storage in the Home Driven by the growth of home reference data such as photographs, family videos, financial records, etc. Need for reliable backup and preservation of this material in the home. Also driven by growing home entertainment networking that will require shared storage Need Low Cost Options for home networking Coughlin 2005 35
Familiarity with Network-Attached Storage Solutions (Among Internet Households, Home Network Owners and Intenders, n = 817) Own Network-Attached Storage solution 3% Familiar with but do not own 29% Never heard of 39% The Diffusion Group, 2005 Storage Visions Conference Heard of but not familiar Coughlin 2005 29% 36
Primary Type of Content to be Stored on NAS (Among Internet Households, NAS Intenders, n = 280) Music files 13% Family photographs 33% Full-length movies 8% Home-created videos 8% The Diffusion Group, 2005 Storage Visions Conference Duplicates of important data Coughlin 2005 38% 37
Network Storage Packaging Stealthdrive Faceplate Assembly Coughlin 2005 Paul Cochrane, 2005 Storage Visions 38
Network Storage Packaging Tortured Path EMC Solutions Coughlin 2005 Paul Cochrane, 2005 Storage Visions 39
Disk Drive Projections Coughlin 2005 40
HDD Market Niche Projections Units in thousands 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 Mobile CE Desktop Enterprise ATA Enterprise 100,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Coughlin 2005 41
HDD Form Factor Projections 600,000 500,000 1 inch or less 1.8 inch 2.5 inch 3.5 inch Units (in thousands) 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Coughlin 2005 42
CE Drive Applications Units in thousands 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 Cell Phones Automotive Digital Still Camera Digital Video Camera AV Players PVR/DVR/STB/Home Network Games Other CE 40,000 20,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Coughlin 2005 43
Conclusions Digital content creation, distribution, and Consumer Electronics require large volumes of storage Storage devices and requirements vary throughout the content value chain Choice of storage device based on several factors storage hierarchy Integration of storage into consumer electronics will be a key way to lower prices and increase market penetration of storage applications Content Creation and Consumer Electronics represent a fast growing opportunity for storage devices and storage systems companies Acknowledgement: Much of the material from this presentation was created while researching the forthcoming 2005 Digital Entertainment Series Reports, For more information see www.tomcoughlin.com. Coughlin 2005 44
The journey of a thousand files begins with a single bit Coughlin 2005 45