The Best of Times/The Worst of Times

Transcription

1 The Best of Times/The Worst of Times Thomas M. Coughlin President Coughlin Associates , Coughlin Associates 1

2 Outline 2009 HDD trends and why things will eventually get better Important developments driving storage Rapid I/O interfaces Expanding storage hierarchy Increasing content resolution Growth of on-line storage Lower power use initiatives Growth in metadata generation New security options in storage Conclusions Sources 2009, Coughlin Associates 2

3 In The Darkest Times "Even in the darkest time the lights must never go out, the music must always play." (A.H. Auden) Happiness can be found even in the darkest of times, when one only remembers to turn on the light (Dumbledore) 2009, Coughlin Associates 3

4 Why People Need More Storage Memories and information are our greatest resource, long term memory is a key part of being a human being Digital technologies allow new ways to create, capture, share and use content these are the basis of the next economy There is more storage on more devices that we use everyday At the same time the immediate future will be very challenging but there will be a recovery! 2009, Coughlin Associates 4

5 Weird and Wacky World of USB Memory Super Talent Wallet Storage/MP3 Player ATP Green Drives 2009, Coughlin Associates 5

6 External Storage and Backup Wireless USB (100 MBps within 10 feet) Clickfree Backup HP Media Server, V2 ivdr external storage Any storage device becomes networked storage 2009, Coughlin Associates 6

7 Demand for Storage is Extremely Elastic Based upon HDD market trends over the last 5 years Capacity Increase ( ) Revenue Increase ( ) ASP Decline ( ) $/GB Decline ( ) 189 EB $13.6 B 17.6% $1.72 HDDs Shipped Annually (M) HDDs Capacity , Coughlin Associates Storage Capacity Shipped Annually (EB)

8 Accumulated Digital Content Per Average US Household GB 9000 GB 8000 GB 7000 GB 6000 GB 5000 GB 4000 GB 3000 GB 2000 GB 1000 GB 0 GB Personal Data Retail Home Video Gaming Home Backup Home Entertainment Consumer Survey on Digital Storage in Consumer Electronics (Coughlin Associates, 2008) Assume 100 M American Households, each with an average of 9 TB of storage This is 900 M TB of storage or 900 Exabytes of storage in US households by 2013 Of this amount ~21 Exabytes are user generated content 2009, Coughlin Associates 8

9 Total New Storage Capacity for Media and Entertainment (over 39 Exabytes of New Storage by 2014) Total New Capacity (PB) 100,000 10,000 1, Digital Storage for Media and Entertainment Report, Coughlin Associates Digital Conversion & Preservation New Film, Animation, Broadcast, Episodic Archiving Broadcast Acquisition Movie Acquisition Digital Cinema VOD Streaming VOD Ingest Networks Satellite Headends Cable Headends Broadcasters Compositing and Special Effects Post Production Total revenue for media and entertainment storage will increase about 2.8X from 2008 through 2014 ($3.5 B to $9.9 B) 2009, Coughlin Associates 9

10 Cost for Storing 1 $700,000 $600,000 With Backup One Copy PB for 20 Years 1 PB Storage Expense $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 Annual Estimated Cost for 1 PB $1,000,000 $100,000 $10,000 $1,000 $ HDD Tape PB of storage using 1 TB HDDs with proper environment, racks, HVAC, etc. cost about $166,000 up front and $16,000 per year to maintain. When you update this say in 5 years you would have another $28,000 in capital and $8,000 in annual operating expenses. Over 50% of the total cost of preserving the 1 PB of content is in the first year. 2009, Coughlin Associates 10

11 HDD Trends in 2009 Largest ever decline expected in HDD unit volume in 2009 due to less demand during economic downturn Pressure from SSDs on some enterprise applications, not so much in notebooks Expect higher capacity drives in TB 3.5-inch drives (already happened) 700+ GB 2.5-inch drives 300+ GB 1.8-inch drives HDD recovery starting in second half of 2009? Later part of 2010 more likely 2009, Coughlin Associates 11

12 Prior History a Guide to Future HDD Demand? (HDD YoY Unit Shipment Growth) 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Possible 2011 Recovery (+20%) , Coughlin Associates 12

13 HDD Application Projections Units in thousands. 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 Mobile CE Desktop Enterprise ATA Enterprise , Coughlin Associates 13

14 HDD Form Factor Projections Units (in thousands). 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , inch or less 1.8 inch 2.5 inch 3.5 inch , Coughlin Associates 14

15 Revised HDD Capital Expectations Negative growth in HDD unit demand in 2009 will significantly impact capital spending Some capital spending to support expected technology transitions such as DTR First discrete track recording drives not likely until 2010 Issue with DTR and patterned media is higher drive BOM costs Expect broader capital spending recovery by second half of 2010 as industry gears up for better unit demand and roll-out of new technology to support higher areal recording densities 2009, Coughlin Associates 15

16 When Will HDD Market Recover? HDD market will be driven by renewed growth in current and new applications Growth in HDDs in netbook computers and laptops Growth in storage to support content delivery and cloud storage models Growth in mobile and static consumer applications-- eventually Continued demand for storage when money available again to make investments storage demand is very elastic 2009, Coughlin Associates 16

17 Solid State Drives Lexar Toshiba 2009, Coughlin Associates 17

18 High Capacity SD Cards 2009, Coughlin Associates 18

19 Mbits/s Growth of Fast Interfaces (Graph from Silicon Image, SV09) SATA3.0G USB3 SATA6.0G SSD HDD SATA1.5G GbE 1394b USB2 USB , Coughlin Associates 19

20 2009, Coughlin Associates 20

21 Speed and Power Driving New Storage Hierarchy Power use in data center is a major expense and storage plays a significant role (direct power use as well as HVAC power) SSDs are being promoted for Tier 0 (very high performance) applications as well as part of a power control solution in data-centers 2009, Coughlin Associates 21

22 Enterprise and Computer Outlook for HDDs and SSDs Units Shipped (M) Units Shipped (M) HDD Enterprise HDD ATA Enterprise SSD Enterprise HDD Mobile PC SDD Mobile PC Between 2008 and 2013 SSDs in Enterprise will increase 3X and by 2013 be about 4.8% of the FC/SAS enterprise HDD units shipped Between 2008 and 2013 SSDs in Mobile PCs will increase by 19X and be about 3.6% of the Mobile PC HDD units shipped 2009, Coughlin Associates 22

23 Growth of On-Line Business Models The last couple of years have brought a reemergence of on-line or remote storage services as well as do-it-yourself cloud storage. At the start of 2008 about 1,000 companies were offering remote storage. Examples are Nirvanix and Amazon S3 In the last few months, a number of prominent IT companies have come out with do-it-yourself, private cloud storage and computing development platforms. There's also a gaggle of startups trying to find a wedge into the market. Chris Preimesberger, November , Coughlin Associates 23

24 Metadata Generation Technology Other Examples Sensor based such as GPS on devices Still and moving image recognition Voice to text conversion Indexing and generation of searchable information Metadata could become very large if it makes the original data easier to use SAmgl Automated Metadata Generation MeGA (Automatic Metadata Generation Applications) Project (Report from 2005) 2009, Coughlin Associates 24

25 Storage Security Developments The Trusted Computing Group released three standards. The Opal standard is for PC hard drives, the Enterprise Security Subsystem Class Specification is for enterprise hard drives the final one is for secure interoperability with other storage standards such as SCSI and ATA. The Trusted Computing Group hopes that the Opal standards will give vendors a single blueprint for building and implementing encrypted hard drives. It is designed to facilitate broad adoption of full disk encryption solutions by creating an open, industry standard that offers improved interoperability across storage vendors, encryption technologies and platforms. 2009, Coughlin Associates 25

26 Conclusions Although the next couple of years will be challenging to the HDD, HDD component and capital equipment companies, there is still great demand for storage and there will be a recovery Solid state storage products will allow faster performance, particularly for read although current generation devices vary widely in their performance Concerns with power consumption, performance and cost will expand the storage hierarchy particularly for enterprise applications Remote storage options will expand the availability of storage and drive new demand Automated metadata generation will increase, making indexing and using content easier Storage security will improve with standards introduced for PC and enterprise storage applications 2009, Coughlin Associates 26

27 Despite everything in the next decade A terabyte in your pocket A petabyte in your home Exabytes in datacenters Zetabytes in the world 2009, Coughlin Associates 27

28 Sources 2009 CES and Storage Visions Conferences 2009 Digital Storage for Media and Entertainment Report, Coughlin Associates 2009 Digital Storage in Consumer Electronics Report, Coughlin Associates 2008 Consumer Survey on Digital Storage in Consumer Electronics, Coughlin Associates 2009, Coughlin Associates 28

29 Thanks! 2009, Coughlin Associates 29