Next generation mobile, drivers & directions - a European view NIKSUN WWSMC 2011 Wireless Summit July 27th 2011 Knud Erik Skouby, center for Communication, Media and Information technologies CMI/ CTIF Aalborg University/ Copenhagen, Denmark
Trend - Mobile 9/2/2011 2
Trend - Video is here Average web page size has tripled in past 5 years 90% of web pages have images today Average file size on the web = 10 MBytes +75% HTTP requests from images, up from 20% in 03 Video accounts for ~99% of all bytes transferred And they are growing in size and length 90% of videos are+3min - up from under 1 min in 97 An illustrative example: World Cup on BBC services Wed 23rd of June around 15:30Hrs: o ~417,000 user video streams of the world cup football consuming around 420 Gb/s of additional BW Some 393,000 other users following the action on other areas of the web site making a total of 810,000 users for this event 9/2/2011 3
A conclusion nice technical challenges Provision of very high peak capacity per user Provision of 1000 fold capacity in 2020 relative to HSPA in 2010 - Backhaul capacity is a limitation Ever Increasing cost and complexity of networks operation and maintenance Scarcity of suitable spectrum Need for Flexible and evolvable network architectures Increasing demand in processing power and storage Need for inter operability between different standards and technologies 9/2/2011 4
Networks Ongoing Technology driven Convergence Services Wired, Wireless, Broadcast Technology and components Convergence Communications, Entertainment Business services Information delivery Computers, Communications, Consumer electronics 5
Mobile trajectory the vigorous track delivering everything High Speed Mobility 1995 2000 2005 B3G ( IMT-A ) 3G ( IMT2000 ) 2011+ Beyond 3G/ 4G Medium Speed Low Speed WiBro 2G 802.16e ( Digital ) 1G High speed ( Analog ) WLAN 5 GHz WLAN WiMax 2.4 GHz WLAN Bluetooth AMPS ETACS JTACS NMT ~ 14.4 kbps 144 kbps 384 kbps <50 Mbps WPAN RFID ZigBee MANet <100 Mbps Data Rates 6
Another conclusion A New General Trend - From Technology to Users Communication Yesterday: two distinct and technologically rather stable areas: POTS (Plain Old Telephone Services) and analogue mass-communication (radio/ TV) Communication Today: Converging technologies focusing on mobility & video Communication tomorrow Smart applications required by users Challenges to the smooth trajectory by Economics Technology Competition 9/2/2011 7
Technology: The Radio dilemma System benefits for approaching Shannon? 3G - HSDPA 4G - LTE 5G, really? [source: WCDMA for UMTS, 3rd edition] [source: Preben Mogensen, et al., 2007] 8
relative Capacity increase related to 900 MHz capacity Techno-economic dilemma - Indoor coverage can t be satisfied through outdoor base stations Assume standardisation of application language convertable widgets web technologies frequency [MHz]
Economics: Business dilemma B4G access is expensive Indoor coverage cannot be satisfied through outdoor base stations changing access means loosing revenue Bandwidth requirements come from other form factors (notebook, tablets) Access challenge: More bandwidth with less revenue Willingness to pay is not related to bandwidth! The trajectory is getting complicated
Business implications The current 25 year old business models (Garden Walled Networks and Customer locking to a network) not sustainable are being eroded Infrastructure sharing purely driven for cost reduction no longer viable Telecom networks will become 4th utility networks: Gas, electricity, water networks Customer care and services are the only market differentiators for service providers; Video based services major driver for future broadband mobile networks 9/2/2011 11
A New aspect on Service development on Mobile Phones B3G: Personalization <-> User involvement Personalised broadband wireless services 3G: Multimedia communication 2G: Mobile telephony, SMS, FAX, Data 1G: Mobile telephony 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 12
Vision: Empower the user A wide range of services and contents and networks...to a variety of devices.
User needs sphere TM TM Trust and security Share Control Anywhere, at any time, in any language
Meeting the user needs The market used to deliver: services and content, in a one-size-fits all format The market has to deliver Context aware services related to User Profile Management system Devices and terminals Physical objects in users proximity Simple, open and universal interfaces between service platforms and networks are needed for services evolution and innovation
The Cloud lay out as the technical basis Short-range Network wide-area local-area 4G centralized decentralized licensed spectrum license-free Cellular Network Sort-range Network Cellular Network Sort-range Network Complementary networks Cellular Network Coexisting networks providing the relevant information anywhere Cooperating networks
Short-range communications as an ubiquitous access technology: By year 2020: 7 trillion wireless devices will be serving 7 billion people (WWRF). A given mobile device will be always surrounded by a large number of other wireless devices. There exists a potential cluster to cooperate with.
A user scenario based on privacy exploring challenges Sabine, while travelling in the train, has a tele-presence conference in 3D Including tactile and fragrance components During the conference she enjoys high speed connectivity and full integration of the ict-environment in the train - screen, microphone, projected user interface etc. She gets off at Heidelberg Station with a seamless handover to a very high capacity while the application follows her. She terminates the conference
Changing to family car She recovers her husband s car getting indoor navigation to the car park, where signposts identify her (without leaving data traces) and directs her to the car (optical and audio assistance). She opens the car choosing between audio and biometric techniques Driving in the car she enjoys advanced navigation assistance integrated with the familys distributed shopping list advising her to stop for errands at relevant shops. Having paid using NFC, the shopping list is updated.
Arriving home During the drive there is Twitter info complemented by email displayed on television at home There is personalized preparation of different utensils ready for her coming home and messages to house communication system. When she leaves there is seamless handover and integration into home environment of ongoing conversation and Kind of Blue playing in the car follows her into the house
Research trends Users as co-creators for wireless services and systems Context awareness and location based services Support of social interaction as the basis for services and systems User profiles to adapt to users in respect to his/her preferences Methodologies involving users as cocreators Users experience noninterrupted and seamless communication, content sharing, consumption, and search Converged media technologies to bring new user experiences, content and services to the user
A new convergence things and services The increasing connection between physical devices and online services will drive new applications that take personal data and turn it into useful, personal and social representations. The User oriented community building shapes the future Past examples Silicon Valley Bangalore The future will be shaped by innovative responsivness to User Requirements & Needs 9/2/2011 22