09-06-22 The mobile broadband revolu0on! Anders Cajander Head of Innova+on Management TeliaSonera Mobility TeliaSonera Leading Nordic total telecommunications provider 1 21 Mobile Operators in 18 countries 2 A leading wholesale-only International Carrier 3 137 million group subscriptions 4 Nordic market leader for over 100 years Delivering growth in Baltics, Eurasia, Russia & Turkey Recent mobile operator purchases in Nepal & Cambodia 5 Nordic, Baltic and Spain Eurasia Nepal, Cambodia Global IP: ranked 5th, largest European provider 6 Notes 1. TeliaSonera is #1 by revenues in region Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway & Sweden 2. Continuous mobile operations from Norway to Afghanistan, including Russia. 10th largest international mobile group. 3. Global wholesale revenues were approximately 10% of group revenues in 2007 4. Subscriptions at March 2009 grew 2.2 million from Dec 2008. TeliaSonera Q1 2009 interim report 5. Spice Nepal (market #2) 100% ownership, Starcell (market #4) purchased Sept 2008 6. Based on independent survey of global ip routes Renesys march 2009 1
What it s all about intro tech rev inno D A T A T R A F F I C Volume increase: + 700% 3G mobile broadband During 2008 What it s all about Mobile traffic per customer by device (Mb/month) 500 Revenue / Mb (USD / Mb) 400 300 200 100 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Basic mobiles Smartphones USB modems Source: Analysys Mason, Wireless network traffic 2008-2015: forecasts and analysis A-focus, Scenario analysys future spectrum capacity demands. 2008 2
Average monthly fee mobile broadband in Europe Norway France Netherlands Germany Spain Czech Rep Belgium Portugal Denmark Average Switzerland Finland UK Slovakia Greece Poland Ireland Italy Hungary Austria Sweden 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Euro Source: Bergh Insight 2008 Industry responce Seeking lower production cost per Mb through Less expensive technology (base stations, switches, access networks) New networks (LTE/4G) Alternative ways of building & operating (sharing) Consolidation of networks New solutions (e.g. Femto) New revenue streams New innovation ecosystems Move towards differentiated portfolio Bundles - Security - Content - Q&S and priority Speed - 3,6 / 7,2 / 14,4 / 28,8 etc. Volume - X Mb or Y Gb per offering Flatrate & flexrate - Post- and prepaid Combinations - Mobile BB + mobile data usage - Mobile BB + mobile voice - Mobile BB + fixed BB 3
Fully IP oriented Technologies intro tech rev inno 4G LTE Advanced 4G LTE 3G HSPA Evolution 3G 3G HSPA Market impact Peak rate Typical user rate downlink Typical user rate uplink Round Trip Delay (Ping) 2003 2006 2009 2010 384 kbps 7 Mbps 42 Mbps ~150 Mbps ~200 kbps 1-2 Mbps 2-10 Mbps 10-20 Mbps 64 kbps 64-384 kbps 0.5-4.5 Mbps 5-10 Mbps 100-150 ms ~50 ms ~50 ms ~10 ms 2016 ~1 Gbps ~30-100 Mbps ~ 10-50 Mbps <10 ms User throughputs vs. Cell capacity 20 MHz 2.6 GHz NLOS Indoor Suburban Macro Pedestrian A Single user scheduling 30 m enb height 500 m ISD 2D antenna pamern MIMO SM For this scenario, no users achieve the peak rate! 4
4G 4G in progress The world s first 4G base station in operation in Stockholm 2009-05-25. As the first operator in the world, Telia has set a 4G base station for a commercial network in operation. The shiny new base station, equipped with next-generation technology, is located in a cramped space in the attic at Sturegatan 8. This is a milestone in our build-out efforts, and it feels really great, says Tommy Ljunggren, head of PoP Mobility Services Sweden. 5
The spectrum playing field Several on-going & upcoming allocations EU Digital switch-over / digital dividend Sweden allocated 72 MHz to mobile services, other EU countries to follow Refarming of 900-band Discussions on-going in e.g SE, NO, DK, EE Allocation of 2,5/2,6 GHz NO 2007, SE 2008, FIN, LT 2009 & DK 2010) Industry prerequisites Spectrum scarce resource (and fundamental) Capacity demand stronger than ever due to mobile migration and broadband Technology life-span gets shorter Operators use multiple bands increases complexity Regulatory interventions (e.g. roaming) affecting revenues Operators frequency needs Today GSM GSM UMTS HSPA Frequency band Future 790-862 MHz 900 MHz 1.8 GHz 2.1 GHz 2.6 GHz 4G 900 Mhz 1,8 Ghz 2,1 Ghz 2,6 Ghz LTE LTE / GSM / UMTS UMTS HSPA LTE 12 6
09-06-22 Company cultures The Teliasonera way long term & expensive! Telco 2.0 The XXXXX way Short term but cheap! intro tech rev inno 7
Voice vs. Non voice Monthly ARPU (EUR) 30 25 20 15 10 5 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0% Voice Non-voice Annual subscriber growth (%) Non-voice revenue (%) European Mobile Market: trends and forecasts 2008 2013 [Ovum] What non voice Ref: STL interviews, 600 respondents (vendors, operators, analysts etc) 8
Up /downstream Near Field Com (NFC)! 9
09-06-22 Innova0on eco sys intro tech rev inno iphone/appstore User Driven and community driven Innovation Third party and partnership oriented Internet services deeply integrated into mobiles Especially social networks start catching mobile users Mindset 10
11