P. Redman, K. Dulaney, W. Clark Strategic Analysis Report 30 May 2003 Hype Cycle for Mobile and Wireless Networking, 2003 A wireless networking technology assessment for personal-, local- and wide-area networks finds many struggling to climb from the Trough of Disillusionment, while mainstream technologies, like Wi-Fi 802.11b, are productive and efficient for adoption. Management Summary There's no shortage of technologies to assess for our 2003 Hype Cycle for Mobile and Wireless. Because of the breadth of the technologies covered, we ve divided this Hype Cycle into two separate pieces. This one covers wireless networking and the other addresses wireless technologies and services (see "Hype Cycle for Mobile and Wireless Applications and Services, 2003," R-20-0407). In this report, Gartner assesses the leading standards, application environments and mobile-device segments for personal-, local- and wide-area technologies. Because of the broad and fragmented nature of this market, many diverse technologies are represented. Today, each of these technologies needs to be procured and integrated separately; however, during the next five to 10 years, these technologies will converge, making adoption simpler. Gartner Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.
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CONTENTS 1.0 The Hype Cycle...5 2.0 On the Rise...5 2.1 802.15.4...5 2.2 Ad Hoc Networking...6 2.3 CDMA2000 1x EV-DV...6 2.4 Ultrawideband...6 2.5 4G Wireless Technology...6 2.6 Mesh Networks...7 3.0 At the Peak...7 3.1 Wi-Fi Protected Access...7 3.2 Wideband Code Division Multiple Access...7 3.3 Bluetooth Networking...8 4.0 Sliding Into the Trough...8 4.1 Wi-Fi 802.11g...8 4.2 Enhanced Data Rates for Global Evolution...8 4.3 Broadband Wireless Access...8 5.0 Climbing the Slope...9 5.1 Bluetooth Cable Replacement...9 5.2 Wi-Fi 802.11a...9 5.3 Wireless PDA...9 5.4 General Packet Radio Service...10 5.5 CDMA2000 1x EV-DO...10 6.0 Entering the Plateau...10 6.1 CDMA2000 1xRTT...10 6.2 Wi-Fi 802.11b...10 7.0 Conclusion...11 Appendix A:Hype Cycle Definitions...12 Appendix B:Acronym Key...13 30 May 2003 3
FIGURES Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Mobile and Wireless Networking, 2003...5 30 May 2003 4
1.0 The Hype Cycle Visibility Wi-Fi Protected Access Key: Time to Plateau Mesh Networks Wideband Code Division Multiple Access Bluetooth Networking Less than two years Twotofiveyears Five to 10 years More than 10 years Obsolete before Plateau WiFi 802.11g Enhanced Data Rates for Global Evolution General Packet Radio Service CDMA2000 1x EV-DO Wi-Fi 802.11b CDMA2000 1xRTT Technology Trigger 4G Wireless Technology Wireless PDA Broadband Ultrawideband Wireless Access CDMA2000 1x EV-DV Wi-Fi 802.11a Ad Hoc Networking Bluetooth Cable Replacement 802.15.4 Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment As of May 2003 Plateau of Productivity Acronym Key 4G fourth-generation 1xRTT first-generation radio transmission technology (CDMA2000 data technology) CDMA code division wireless access CDMA2000 2.5G/3G specification for CDMA DO data only DV data/voice EV evolution GSM Global System for Mobile Communications PDA personal digital assistant Maturity Source: Gartner Research (May 2003) Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Mobile and Wireless Networking, 2003 2.0 On the Rise 2.1 802.15.4 Definition: 802.15.4 technology is low-rate, short-range wireless networking that offers long battery life for fixed devices, not mobile. It is also known as the "ZigBee Alliance." Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Five to 10 years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Specifications are not fully defined for 802.15.4 networking; there is little user awareness of the technology beyond industrial applications. 30 May 2003 5
Business Impact Areas: Low-cost connectivity. 2.2 Ad Hoc Networking Definition: Ad hoc networking allows enterprises to create spontaneous networks that are coordinated "on-the-fly" using point-to-point technology. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: More than 10 years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Ad hoc networking is used mostly by the military today. Business Impact Areas: Remote connectivity. 2.3 CDMA2000 1x EV-DV Definition: CDMA2000 1x evolution data/voice (EV-DV), a 2.5G/3G specification for code division multiple access (CDMA), as part of the CDMA upgrade path, provides peak data rates of up 2.4 Mbps in a standard 1.25MHz CDMA channel that combines voice and data. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Five to 10 years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: CDMA2000 1x EV-DV is the most likely candidate to succeed 1xRTT which is first-generation radio transmission technology (CDMA2000 data technology) systems as demand grows for higher-speed data and methods to increase voice capacity. Business Impact Areas: Higher-speed wireless data access for communications. 2.4 Ultrawideband Definition: Ultrawideband technology is a personal-area network (PAN) technology that uses pulsed radio techniques to transmit data. It is a possible high-bandwidth successor to Bluetooth. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Five to 10 years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Although regulatory issues are no longer in the way, product development and deployment has been slow for ultrawideband technology. Business Impact Areas: Higher-speed, low-cost network services. 2.5 4G Wireless Technology Definition: Fourth-generation (4G) wireless technology is a next-generation, wide-area technology that potentially offers high capacity to support packetized voice and more than 10 Mbps connection speeds. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: More than 10 years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: 4G wireless technology is still in early development; just the initial specification has been completed. Commercial rollouts of third-generation (3G) wireless 30 May 2003 6
technology have just begun, with many iterations available. Development, then deployment of 4G technology will be slow. Business Impact Areas: High-speed communications, and multiple network and system interoperability. 2.6 Mesh Networks Definition: Mesh networks are developed from peer-to-peer routing technology. Packets can be routed around bottlenecks and failed nodes to maintain end-to-end connections. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Twotofiveyears. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: To date, there are few deployments of mesh networks; low corporate need exists for such technology. Business Impact Areas: Improve connectivity options for remote access. 3.0 At the Peak 3.1 Wi-Fi Protected Access Definition: Wi-Fi (Wireless Fidelity) Protected Access (WPA) is the Temporal Key Integrity Protocol and 802.1x portion of 802.11i that has been separated and backed by the Wi-Fi Alliance certification process. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Less than two years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Tremendous hype in the press states that WPA solves wireless LAN (WLAN) security problems. It has strong backing from all vendors; vendors believe WPA will give them a competitive edge when it emerges late in 2003. Business Impact Areas: Interoperable security solution to widespread exposure of WLANs. Analysis by Ken Dulaney 3.2 Wideband Code Division Multiple Access Definition: Wideband code division multiple access (WCDMA) is part of the International Mobile Telecommunications-2000 specification, the later stage of the 3G wireless technology standard that offers higher voice capacity and data speeds of 384 Kbps and 2MB in a fixed service. WCDMA is considered the upgrade path of Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) technology. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Five to 10 years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: WCDMA has many test sites, but the rollout has been slow and there are few devices. The lack of available capital in a poor economy has caused the uptake of WCDMA devices to be slow. Business Impact Areas: Higher-speed, wireless data access for communications. 30 May 2003 7
3.3 Bluetooth Networking Definition: Bluetooth networking uses short-range Bluetooth technology for personal- or local-area access to the Internet, or pairing with multiple users in immediate range. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Obsolete before Plateau. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Bluetooth networking has limited use and capability for networking at a low cost; the more robust Wi-Fi technology is widely available. Business Impact Areas: Productivity and real-time collaboration. 4.0 Sliding Into the Trough 4.1 Wi-Fi 802.11g Definition: Wi-Fi 802.11g is an alternative WLAN technology to 802.11b. It has enhanced performance features. 802.11g operates at 2.4GHz and can deliver up to a 54-Mbps link rate. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Less than two years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: 802.11g will deliver additional bandwidth to meet the needs of new applications. Business Impact Areas: Mobility and convenience, real-time collaboration and wireline replacement. Analysis by Ken Dulaney 4.2 Enhanced Data Rates for Global Evolution Definition: Enhanced Data Rates for Global Evolution (EDGE) is a technology that is based on GSM and shared media packet data technology. EDGE uses a different and more-efficient modulation scheme, which opens up more bandwidth per radio carrier or cell. EDGE claims to provide data rates of up to 384 Kbps per cell, although this assumes that all eight radio channels (time slots) are used. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Twotofiveyears. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: EDGE technology has shown a disparity among regions, had a delay in the rollout of technology and has a lack of handsets. There has been media attention but, as networks are launched at year-end 2003 and in the first half of 2004, we expect disappointment over data speeds and availability will set in for EDGE devices. Business Impact Areas: Higher-speed, wireless data access for communications. 4.3 Broadband Wireless Access Definition: The term "broadband wireless access networking" includes numerous technologies including cellular, 802.16, time division duplexing and deployment services for high-speed data. Examples of specific broadband wireless access services include multichannel multipoint distribution service (MMDS) and local multipoint distribution services (LMDS) systems. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Twotofiveyears. 30 May 2003 8
Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Broadband wireless access has had multiple launches and subsequent bankruptcies in the MMDS and LMDS areas. Small, regional providers using unlicensed bands are starting to roll out broadband wireless access services for small and midsize businesses. Business Impact Areas: Increased speed of communications and lower service costs. 5.0 Climbing the Slope 5.1 Bluetooth Cable Replacement Definition: Bluetooth cable replacement technology is a standardized PAN technology (with up to a 10 meters range) that operates at 2.4GHz and is used for connecting devices together in a peer-to-peer network. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Twotofiveyears. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Hardware and software providers will create de facto standards around a subset of the currently defined Bluetooth application profiles. Business Impact Areas: Reduce costs for categories of products such as mice, keyboards and automotive applications. Analysis by William Clark 5.2 Wi-Fi 802.11a Definition: Wi-Fi 802.11a is an alternative WLAN technology to 802.11b that has specific enhanced performance features. 802.11a operates at 5GHz and can deliver up to 54-Mbps link rate. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Less than two years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: 802.11a will deliver additional bandwidth to meet the needs of new applications. Business Impact Areas: Mobility and convenience, real-time collaboration, and wireline replacement. Analysis by Ken Dulaney 5.3 Wireless PDA Definition: Wireless PDA technology facilitates the creation of a variety of data-centric devices and associated software platforms. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Twotofiveyears. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Wireless PDA technology enables a variety of applications to become highly portable; more portable than is possible with notebook computers. Business Impact Areas: Anytime, anywhere computing. Analysis by Ken Dulaney 30 May 2003 9
5.4 General Packet Radio Service Definition: General packet radio service (GPRS) is a packet-oriented overlay to GSM networks. The theoretical maximum speed can be as high as 115 Kbps, but throughput is expected to be less than or equal to 56 Kbps. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Less than two years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: There is extended availability, but slow uptake of GPRS. Speeds have been disappointing due to the lack of Class 10 (a specification for devices that support higher speeds) devices and full network support for GPRS. Business Impact Areas: Higher-speed wireless data access for communications. 5.5 CDMA2000 1x EV-DO Definition: CDMA2000 1x EV-data only (DO), as part of the CDMA upgrade path, provides peak data rates of up 2.4 Mbps in a standard 1.25MHz CDMA channel for fixed, portable and mobile data applications. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Obsolete before Plateau. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: CDMA2000 1x EV-DO is used in some current small implementations and test sites; we expect it will be eclipsed by more efficient CDMA2000 1x EV-DV technology. Business Impact Areas: Higher-speed wireless data access for communications. 6.0 Entering the Plateau 6.1 CDMA2000 1xRTT Definition: CDMA2000 1xRTT technology facilitates the creation of a new generation of mobile network infrastructure that supports high-speed (up to 155 Kbps) wireless services for advanced applications. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Less than two years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Many commercial launches of CDMA2000 1xRTT technology have already occurred, with millions of users. Business Impact Areas: Higher-speed wireless data access for communications. 6.2 Wi-Fi 802.11b Definition: WI-Fi 802.11b is the most mature of the WLAN technologies, with Wi-Fi-certified products widely available. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Less than two years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Deployment of Wi-Fi 802.11b technology within mainstream enterprises is increasingly common. 30 May 2003 10
Business Impact Areas: Higher speed wireless data access for communications. Analysis by Ken Dulaney 7.0 Conclusion Wireless wide-area technologies are making the fastest approach to the Plateau of Productivity because of major investments and broad market appeal. Although much of the hype has passed, technology maturity still ranges widely from two to 10 years, as issues like cost, latency and quality of service remain to be solved. Wireless application technology has been slower to appear, and thus has not fully slid into the Trough of Disillusionment yet, while personal-area technology like 802.15.4 (ZigBee) and ultrawideband are still in the planning phases. 30 May 2003 11
Appendix A: Hype Cycle Definitions Technology Trigger: A breakthrough, public demonstration, product launch or other event generates significant press and industry interest. Peak of Inflated Expectations: During this phase of overenthusiasm and unrealistic projections, a flurry of well-publicized activity by technology leaders results in some successes, but more failures, as the technology is pushed to its limits. The only enterprises making money are conference organizers and magazine publishers. Trough of Disillusionment: Because the technology does not live up to its overinflated expectations, it rapidly becomes unfashionable. Media interest wanes, except for a few cautionary tales. Slope of Enlightenment: Focused experimentation and solid hard work by an increasingly diverse range of organizations lead to a true understanding of the technology's applicability, risks and benefits. Commercial, off-the-shelf methodologies and tools ease the development process. Plateau of Productivity: The real-world benefits of the technology are demonstrated and accepted. Tools and methodologies are increasingly stable as they enter their second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market. Approximately 30 percent of the technology's target audience has or is adopting the technology as it enters the Plateau. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: The time required for the technology to reach the Plateau of Productivity. 30 May 2003 12
Appendix B: Acronym Key 4G 1xRTT 3G CDMA CDMA2000 DO DV EDGE EV GPRS GSM LMDS MMDS PAN PDA WCDMA WLAN WPA fourth generation first-generation radio transmission technology (CDMA2000 data technology) third generation code division multiple access 2.5G/3G specification for CDMA data only data/voice Enhanced Data Rates for Global Evolution evolution general packet radio service Global System for Mobile Communications local multipoint distribution service multichannel multipoint distribution service personal-area network personal digital assistant wideband code division multiple access wireless LAN Wi-Fi Protected Access 30 May 2003 13