P. Redman, W. Clark, K. Dulaney Strategic Analysis Report 30 May 2003 Hype Cycle for Mobile and Wireless Applications and Services, 2003 Some wireless applications and services, like Short Message Service and wireless e-mail, have already been shown to improve productivity and should be embraced. Others are headed for obsolescence (wireless Web) and should be avoided. Management Summary There's no shortage of technologies to assess for our 2003 Hype Cycle for Mobile and Wireless. Because of the breadth of the technologies covered, we ve divided this Hype Cycle into two separate pieces. This one covers mobile and wireless applications and services; the other covers networking services (see "Hype Cycle for Mobile and Wireless Networking, 2003," R-20-0115). In the applications and services area, certain technologies, like Short Message Service (SMS) have reached the Plateau of Productivity, while others, such as wireless e-mail and multimedia access services, are nearing that point. Many others, however, are at the Peak of Inflated Expectations or are sliding into the Trough of Disillusionment, with several technologies, such as wireless application gateways (WAGs) headed for obsolescence within the next few years. Gartner Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.
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CONTENTS 1.0 The Hype Cycle...5 2.0 On the Rise...5 2.1 Voice Over IP Wireless Wide-Area Network...5 2.2 'Smart Dust'...6 2.3 Wireless Audio/Video Streaming...6 2.4 Multichannel Gateways...6 2.5 Session Initiation Protocol-Based Push to Talk...6 2.6 Wireless Instant Messaging...7 3.0 At the Peak...7 3.1 Wireless Metropolitan-Area Networking...7 3.2 VoIP Wi-Fi...7 3.3 Wireless Number Portability...8 3.4 Wi-Fi Hot Spots...8 3.5 Java 2 Micro Edition...8 4.0 Sliding Into the Trough...8 4.1 Binary Runtime Environment for Wireless...8 4.2 Smartphones...9 4.3 Wireless Local Loop...9 4.4 Multimedia Messaging Service...9 4.5 Wireless Web/Portals...9 5.0 Climbing the Slope...10 5.1 Location-Aware Services...10 5.2 Wireless Application Gateway...10 5.3 Wireless E-Mail...10 6.0 Entering the Plateau...11 6.1 Short Message Service...11 7.0 Conclusion...11 Appendix A:Hype Cycle Definitions...12 Appendix B:Acronym Key...13 30 May 2003 3
FIGURES Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Mobile and Wireless Applications and Services, 2003...5 30 May 2003 4
1.0 The Hype Cycle Visibility Wireless Number Portability VoIP Wi-Fi Wireless Metropolitan- Area Networking Wireless IM SIP-Based Push to Talk Multichannel Gateways Wi-Fi Hot Spots Java 2 Micro Edition BREW Smartphones Wireless Local Loop MMS Wireless Application Gateway Key: Time to Plateau Less than two years Twotofiveyears Five to 10 years More than 10 years Obsolete before Plateau SMS Technology Trigger Wireless Audio/ Video Streaming Smart Dust VoIP Wireless WAN Peak of Inflated Expectations Wireless Web/Portals Trough of Disillusionment Wireless E-Mail Location-Aware Services Slope of Enlightenment As of May 2003 Plateau of Productivity Maturity Acronym Key BREW binary runtime environment for wireless IM instant messaging MMS Multimedia Messaging Service SIP Session Initiation Protocol SMS Short Message Service VoIP voice over IP WAN wide-area network Source: Gartner Research (May 2003) Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Mobile and Wireless Applications and Services, 2003 2.0 On the Rise 2.1 Voice Over IP Wireless Wide-Area Network Definition: Voice over IP (VoIP) wireless WAN technology uses IP in the wireless link for packetized, rather than circuit-switched, voice transmission. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Five to 10 years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Use of VoIP wireless WAN technology is a lofty goal for cellular providers. VoIP wireless WANs may offer huge capacity gains. However, today's network technology does not yet support this capability. 30 May 2003 5
Business Impact Areas: Lower communications-services costs, increased network availability, and quality and features. 2.2 'Smart Dust' Definition: Smart dust refers to the use of electronic dust to create an airborne-based, ad hoc mesh network infrastructure. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: More than 10 years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Today, smart dust only exists as theoretical ideas in the university and military areas. Business Impact Areas: Additional and ad hoc network connectivity options, and ease of deployment. 2.3 Wireless Audio/Video Streaming Definition: Wireless audio/video streaming is the streaming of Internet video and audio content to mobile devices. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Five to 10 years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: There is low demand for wireless audio/video streaming today; no compelling applications based on it can be made profitable. Business Impact Areas: Videoconferencing and real-time communications. 2.4 Multichannel Gateways Definition: Multichannel gateway functionality architectures will be built into application platform suites (APSs). These suites can repurpose consumer- and enterprise-oriented content across disparate networks to multiple devices. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Mobile requirements are only a fraction of the overall requirements APS vendors must meet for multichannel gateways; network and device divergence continues, exponentially increasing the problem. Business Impact Areas: Productivity and real-time collaboration. Analysis by William Clark 2.5 Session Initiation Protocol-Based Push to Talk Definition: Session Initiation Protocol (SIP)-based push-to-talk (PTT) technology refers to the way in which SIP not only supports instant messaging and VoIP, but also PTT functionality that can be created for wireless VoIP sessions. 30 May 2003 6
Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Huge challenges remain for SIP-based PTT, including network capacity, network latency, device integration and interoperability. Early attempts will fall into the category of voice messaging, rather than true PTT functionality. Business Impact Areas: Productivity and real-time collaboration. Analysis by William Clark 2.6 Wireless Instant Messaging Definition: Wireless instant messaging (IM) refers to the use of peer-to-peer messaging over a wireless network that includes presence information and "buddy" lists. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: In North America, SMS is just beginning to achieve widespread acceptance; wireless IM will follow. However, interoperability remains an issue. Business Impact Areas: Collaboration and real-time enterprise services. 3.0 At the Peak 3.1 Wireless Metropolitan-Area Networking Definition: Wireless metropolitan-area networking uses point-to-point technologies to compete with or replace wired data networking systems. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Wireless metropolitan-area networking systems are being adopted today as secondary network systems. There's still not a lot of market awareness of this technology, but bigger vendors entering the market will drive awareness and adoption. Business Impact Areas: Reduce network costs, open options for backup systems and provide network connectivity where none was before. 3.2 VoIP Wi-Fi Definition: The term "VoIP Wi-Fi" (Wireless Fidelity) includes the standards and technology to deliver voice calls and other audio over a wireless IP network. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: 802.11e standards or a subset of them will likely be approved in the next few years to enable vendors to deliver interoperable VoIP Wi-Fi. Technology is available today on a proprietary basis; however, the long-term evolution is tied to success on the wire side. Business Impact Areas: Mobility and convenience, and real-time collaboration. Analysis by Ken Dulaney 30 May 2003 7
3.3 Wireless Number Portability Definition: Wireless number portability refers to the ability to port a cellular telephone number from one provider to the next. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: With regulatory hurdles cleared, U.S. rollout of wireless number portability should begin in November 2003. Market awareness is just building. Business Impact Areas: Keep a familiar phone number without restrictions to specific operators or service. 3.4 Wi-Fi Hot Spots Definition: Wi-Fi hot spots use Wi-Fi wireless LAN technology to provide remote WAN connectivity at "hot spot" locations such as airports, hotels and shops. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Today, there is plenty of hype surrounding Wi-Fi hot spot technology, but early adopters are the only ones using it until availability, ease-of-use and billing issues are resolved. Numerous issues exist that are hindering the creation of a viable market ecosystem. Business Impact Areas: Productivity and real-time collaboration. Analysis by William Clark 3.5 Java 2 Micro Edition Definition: Java 2 Micro Edition (J2ME) is a version of Java that is defined by Sun Microsystems for use in devices such as mobile phones. J2ME is part of a set of related Java technologies that includes definitions of profiles and configurations for application developers. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: J2ME has been slow to find support on mobile devices, but it has a good chance of eclipsing competitors through its breadth of network support and company backing. Business Impact Areas: Standardized application interfaces for wireless devices. 4.0 Sliding Into the Trough 4.1 Binary Runtime Environment for Wireless Definition: Binary runtime environment for wireless (BREW) is an application development platform that is primarily focused on code division multiple access (CDMA) systems for wireless data. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Commercial applications have already been launched for BREW. BREW is based on a proven system, but there's a strong possibility that it will be eclipsed by J2ME in the medium to short term. 30 May 2003 8
Business Impact Areas: Standardized application interfaces for wireless devices. 4.2 Smartphones Definition: A smartphone is a mobile terminal that is capable of sending and receiving voice and data calls. Although a smartphone is voice-centric, it can run data applications without a network connection. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Early smartphone products were costly and haven't been widely adopted. More devices are coming soon. Business Impact Areas: Anytime, anywhere computing. Analysis by Ken Dulaney 4.3 Wireless Local Loop Definition: Wireless local loop technology uses the wireless infrastructure to replace the traditional wired telephony system. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Wireless local loop technology has some limited deployments in developing countries; however, prices for this technology haven't been as competitive as originally expected. Business Impact Areas: Productivity and real-time collaboration. 4.4 Multimedia Messaging Service Definition: Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS) is a new mobile messaging standard that offers multimedia services for phone-to-phone transmission. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: The MMS standard has enabled vendors to create some early products that have regional availability; however, MMS is not supported on today's mobile phones. There is little early market awareness of MMS as well. Business Impact Areas: Productivity and real-time collaboration. 4.5 Wireless Web/Portals Definition: Wireless Web/portal technology enables users to access general portals or Internet content via a wireless device. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Obsolete before Plateau. 30 May 2003 9
Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Wireless Web/portal technology is too general; there are no compelling applications for it. It is too slow and there is a low rate of adoption for commercial wireless Web/portal products. Business Impact Areas: Access to Web-based information. 5.0 Climbing the Slope 5.1 Location-Aware Services Definition: Location-aware services use cellular network technology to provide services that are relevant to a specific user location. Services include safety, information and tracking. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Location-aware service integration into applications began in 2002; a critical mass of network and device support will occur through 2008. Privacy is a significant remaining hurdle. Business Impact Areas: Productivity and real-time collaboration. Analysis by William Clark 5.2 Wireless Application Gateway Definition: Wireless Application Gateway (WAG) functionality (defined by Gartner's Adaptive Application Architecture) is an important component for consumer- and enterprise-facing mobile applications. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Obsolete before Plateau. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: WAG functionality is increasingly being integrated into APSs, operating systems, network functions and hosted solutions. Business Impact Areas: Reduce the total cost of ownership for mobile solutions. Analysis by William Clark 5.3 Wireless E-Mail Definition: Enterprise wireless e-mail technology facilitates the delivery of enterprise class e-mail to handheld devices through wireless networks from a gateway connected to a traditional e-mail product such as Microsoft Exchange. The preferred method is to push e-mail to the client. Enterprise wireless e- mail also implies the simultaneous synchronization of personal information management data. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Mainstream vendors such as Microsoft, Dell Computer and IBM are now delivering mature products as part of a wireless e-mail solution. Type A (early adopter) companies have already deployed it. Early products like Research in Motion's (RIM's) BlackBerry have proved satisfactory to users and enhanced worker productivity. Business Impact Areas: Collaboration and enablement of the real-time enterprise. Analysis by Ken Dulaney 30 May 2003 10
6.0 Entering the Plateau 6.1 Short Message Service Definition: SMS allows a subscriber's mobile terminal to send or receive messages of up to 160 characters. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Although adoption and use varies regionally, SMS is a mature technology that handles billions of messages per month. Business Impact Areas: Multimodal communications options, collaboration and real-time communications. 7.0 Conclusion Wireless mobility has produced many compelling and mature applications and services such as wireless e-mail, SMS and MMS. Some other wireless technologies, however, are destined for obsolescence. Avoid generic wireless Web access or Bluetooth networking, since these technologies do not meet market demand and are not easily simplified for use in a wireless environment. Keep wireless applications and services simple, and use them as complements to a wired/fixed service. 30 May 2003 11
Appendix A: Hype Cycle Definitions Technology Trigger: A breakthrough, public demonstration, product launch or other event generates significant press and industry interest. Peak of Inflated Expectations: During this phase of overenthusiasm and unrealistic projections, a flurry of well-publicized activity by technology leaders results in some successes, but more failures, as the technology is pushed to its limits. The only enterprises making money are conference organizers and magazine publishers. Trough of Disillusionment: Because the technology does not live up to its overinflated expectations, it rapidly becomes unfashionable. Media interest wanes, except for a few cautionary tales. Slope of Enlightenment: Focused experimentation and solid hard work by an increasingly diverse range of organizations lead to a true understanding of the technology's applicability, risks and benefits. Commercial, off-the-shelf methodologies and tools ease the development process. Plateau of Productivity: The real-world benefits of the technology are demonstrated and accepted. Tools and methodologies are increasingly stable as they enter their second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market. Approximately 30 percent of the technology's target audience has or is adopting the technology as it enters the Plateau. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: The time required for the technology to reach the Plateau of Productivity. 30 May 2003 12
Appendix B: Acronym Key APS BREW CDMA IM J2ME LAN MMS PTT RIM SIP SMS VoIP WAG WAN application platform suite binary runtime environment for wireless code division multiple access instant messaging Java 2 Micro Edition local-area network Multimedia Messaging Service push to talk Research in Motion Session Initiation Protocol Short Message Service voice over IP Wireless Application Gateway wireless-area network 30 May 2003 13