Make the most of Mobile Broadband - an enabler of the digital economy and sustainable society EEET International conference, Athens june 17-18, 2010 Torbjorn Nilsson -- Senior Executive Advisor to ericsson Public Ericsson AB 2010 2010-06-09 Page 1
New competing Mobile business models Bundling of devices and services The Apple model started it Apple keeps % of the apps/ music revenue and retain customer relations Handset vendors are copying the Appstore model Google and Operators opens up the model 7 billion downloads 2009, 50 billion in 2012 3billion Application Downloads RIM pushes Applications w/o Carrier notification Leverage existing XBOX Live and Zune Market place Public Ericsson AB 2010 2010-06-09 Page 2 Mobile Operators vs Over The Top providers Free or Paid Applications/ Open vs Closed / Ads Battle for brands and all-inclusive
3/4 G Enhanced revenue streams Notebooks now! Smartphones 2009/2010 Tablets 2010 Rural broadband Consumer devices Telephony HD Voice/MMTel Better and New Services Public Ericsson AB 2010 2010-06-09 Page 3
Rapid growth in MBB drive revenue growth and subs Telstra Broadband Net Adds (000s) AT&T: +37% Vodafone: +26% Telefonica: +37% Telstra Broadband ARPUs, A$ Sources: Financial reports and analyst presentations from the respective companies Telstra: +31% Mobile broadband challenging ADSL in many 3/4 G markets Public Ericsson AB 2010 2010-06-09 Page 4
Subscriptions (million) Mobile broadband redefines the market - more than 50 % of all subs 2010, 50 % of broadband revenues in 2015 BUSD Broadband subscriptions (millions) Operator revenues/broadband services 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Mobile Fixed 2 000 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 20082009201020112012201320142015 Mobile data, incl. mobile PC access & SMS Mobile voice Fixed corporate data services Fixed broadband IPTV Fixed VoIP Fixed narrowband voice Source: Ericsson Public Ericsson AB 2010 2010-06-09 Page 5
Estimated BH Traffic (TB/h) Strong growth in mobile broadband - the base for Introduction of LTE/HSPA+ Rapid subscriber uptake Exceptional traffic growth 500 million /HSPA subscribers 10-15 million new HSPA subscribers per month, 220 million in total HSPA is deployed in 341 networks in 143 countries/ territories. 2349 HSPA devices. 250 200 150 100 50 0 93% of the traffic in / HSPA networks is data mar 07 jun 07 sep 07 dec 07 mar 08 jun 08 sep 08 dec 08 mar 09 jun 09 sep 09 dec 09 mar 10 Total BH Speech Traffic Total BH Packet Traffic LTE/HSPA+ will accelerate this trend further more spectrum needed! Public Ericsson AB 2010 2010-06-09 Page 6
Continuous development HSPA+ / LTE HSPA+ Evolution LTE Deployment 42Mbps in Telstra Live Network @Dec. 2009 84Mbps planned @2011 by 3 Scandinavia World first 84Mbps HSPA+ demo @Mobile World Congress 164/84 Mbps in the standardisation World first@dec. 2009. Two cities. Single mode dongle 80 operators committed in 33 countries. CDMA operators aggressive to LTE 1.2Gbps DL demo @Mobile World Congress TD-LTE commercally tested 2010 52 Commercial Networks 2 Commercial Network, 22 in 2010 Public Ericsson AB 2010 2010-06-09 Page 7
Mbps 4G/LTE service by Teliasonera Very high data rates and latency ~20ms Downlink Throughput Stockholm Independent Consumer Broadband Evaluation Site 100 90 80 20 70 60 10 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -8-6 -4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 SINR Public Ericsson AB 2010 2010-06-09 Page 8
Yearly Exabytes Traffic growth in mobile networks - Data traffic surpassed voice in 2009 Source Ericsson 60 50 Mobile traffic forecast - About 2/3 video 2014 (Cisco) 40 30 20 10 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 More and wider spectrum needed. Traffic/Tariff caps? WiFi offloading Data Voice Public Ericsson AB 2010 2010-06-09 Page 9
Lack of licensed spectrum critical Some country examples (end 2009) USA Canada 320 140 Mexico 280 Brazil Finland Italy 315 550 188 320 350 Japan China Peru 110 300 India Indonesia 340 408 Spectrum requirements (ITU-R): 2015~1300, 2020~1500 Australia Public Ericsson AB 2010 2010-06-09 Page 10
spectrum for mobile broadband - Regional mainstream hspa & lte deployments [] North America Base: 850, AWS & 1900 New: US700 2011+: re-farming/lte Latin America Base: 850 & 1900 New: AWS & 2600 2011+: Europe Base: 2100 New: 900 & 2600 2011+: 800 & 1800 MEA Base: 2100 New: 900 & 850 2011+: 2600 & 800 Japan Base: 2100, 1700 & JP850 New: 1500 & re-farm/lte 2011+: re-farming/lte APAC Base: 2100 New: 900 & 850 2011+: 2300, 2600 & 700 Harmonized spectrum and standards for massmarket and convenience Public Ericsson AB 2010 2010-06-09 Page 11
Broadband capacity & coverage - typical deployment by a European operator Capacity bands 2,600 Radio link throughput proportional to FDD DL 20 Assumptions: Propagation based. Suburban environment. Reference frequency is 800. 5 db higher antenna gain at 2,100 and 6 db higher antenna gain at 2,600. LTE and HSPA: re-use 1 LTE HSPA 2,100 FDD DL 15 1,800 FDD DL 10 Coverage bands 900 (DD) 800 FDD DL 5 FDD DL 10 Public Ericsson AB 2010 2010-06-09 Page 12 0.5 1.0 Relative cell coverage area
Estimated BH Traffic (TB/h) Important regulatory issues Stimulate broadband build-out not regulate -More, wider and harmonized spectrum -Technology neutrality/wireless inclusion -The new backbone of the economy and sustainable society Closed vs Open Networks & Services - Fragmentation vs Interoperability - Exclusivity or DRM Content exclusivity being challanged - Net Neutrality & Internet freedom 250 200 150 100 50 0 mar 07 jun 07 sep 07 dec 07 mar 08 jun 08 sep 08 dec 08 mar 09 jun 09 sep 09 dec 09 mar 10 Total BH Speech Traffic Total BH Packet Traffic Remove silo regulation in converged markets -Convergence of media telecom Internet -All screens have it all New value chains- New market players -Over The Top players -Asset & Managed & shared service players -Mobile broadband also competitor to fixed BB Public Ericsson AB 2010 2010-06-09 Page 13
Public Ericsson AB 2010 2010-06-09 Page 14