DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES IN THE DATACENTER Ten Technologies Driving a Wave of Change Are there new technologies out there that could disrupt the economics and infrastructure of the modern datacenter and the ecosystem of current suppliers? This report puts the spotlight on 10 technologies that could ultimately have a significant impact. KEY FINDINGS Flash storage, in-cloud resiliency and advanced datacenter infrastructure management (DCIM) are the three technologies that datacenter operators and suppliers should be watching most closely, according to the aggregated opinions of more than 15 senior analysts and experts across The 451 Group. They are the technologies that are most likely to be deployed in the near future, causing some economic and technical disruption in the process. Clean on-site power generation is the technology that datacenter operators should be least concerned about for now, while very-low-power servers and power-proportional computing are unlikely to be highly disruptive, even if adoption of the technologies becomes widespread. New technologies such as memristors and silicon photonics could have a huge impact on datacenter efficiency and power use but they are some way off from mainstream adoption at this point. Overall, no single technology is definitively likely to prove highly disruptive to the datacenter industry in the next few years, but several technologies identified here are likely to be adopted, causing economic and technical change in the process. Some of these could be combined to have a more significant impact. MAY 2013
REPORT SNAPSHOT TITLE Disruptive Technologies in the Datacenter ANALYST RELEASE DATE May 2013 LENGTH Andy Lawrence, Vice President of Research, Rhonda Ascierto, Senior Analyst, Andrew Donoghue, Senior Analyst, John Abbott, 451 Research Founder and Distinguished Analyst; Daniel Bizo, Senior Analyst, DCT and Eco-Efficient IT 74 pages ABOUT THIS REPORT There are many technologies that, if they lived up to the claims of their evangelists, could dramatically disrupt datacenter operators or suppliers, or both changing their markets and business models, and undermining or dramatically enhancing the investments that have been made. Only a few technologies ever have such an impact and sometimes the extent of that impact surprises even those who developed the technology. In this report, we evaluate 10 technologies that might significantly affect the datacenter market. We have assessed each technology against three top-line criteria: how big the impact will be; how fast it will happen; and how likely it is that the technology will ultimately make a significant impact. We discuss each technology and assign scores based on these criteria to provide a quick way for readers to identify those that may be worth tracking the higher the score, the greater the attention that we believe datacenter equipment suppliers, operators and investors should give to the technology.
TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION....................... 1 1.2 KEY FINDINGS....................... 1 1.3 DEFINING DISRUPTIVE.................... 3 1.4 METHODOLOGY....................... 3 1.4.1 The Disruptive Rating.................. 4 Figure 1: Assessment Criteria................ 6 SECTION 2: TECHNOLOGIES ASSESSED 9 2.1 DISRUPTION PROFILE..................... 10 Figure 2: Disruption Profile..................10 2.2 TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT.................. 11 Disruptive Technology 1: Low-Power Servers............ 11 Disruptive Technology 2: On-Site Clean Power Generation....... 17 Disruptive Technology 3: Advanced DCIM............ 23 Disruptive Technology 4: Cloud-Level Resiliency...........28 Disruptive Technology 5: Silicon Photonics.............35 Disruptive Technology 6: Chiller-Free Datacenters......... 39 Disruptive Technology 7: Power-Proportional Computing........45 Figure 3: Compounded Growth of Energy-Efficient Performance......47 Disruptive Technology 8: Flash Storage..............51 Disruptive Technology 9: Prefabricated Modular Datacenters...... 56 Disruptive Technology 10: Memristors............. 62 SECTION 3: CONCLUSIONS 65 HOW BIG........................... 66 Figure 4: How Big Will The Disruptive Impact Be?*..........66 HOW FAST........................... 67 Figure 5: How Fast Will Disruption Take Place?...........67 HOW LIKELY.......................... 68 Figure 6: How Likely Is the Technology To Ultimately Disrupt the Market?. 68 THE MOST DISRUPTIVE...................... 69 DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES IN THE DATACENTER
Figure 7: Comparison of Disruptive Ratings............ 69 APPENDICES 70 APPENDIX 1: TECHNOLOGIES CONSIDERED BUT NOT ASSESSED...... 70 APPENDIX 2: SERVER RELIABILITY VS. AMBIENT TEMPERATURE RELATIVE FAILURE RATES.................. 71 APPENDIX 3: DISRUPTIVE ASSESSMENT SCORES............ 71 APPENDIX 4: ADDITIONAL RESEARCH................ 72 LOW-POWER SERVERS.................. 72 ON-SITE CLEAN POWER GENERATION..............72 ADVANCED DCIM.....................72 CLOUD-LEVEL RESILIENCY..................73 SILICON PHOTONICS....................73 CHILLER-FREE DATACENTERS.................73 POWER-PROPORTIONAL COMPUTING..............73 FLASH STORAGE.................... 73 PREFABRICATED MODULAR DATACENTERS............74 MEMRISTORS...................... 74 INDEX OF COMPANIES 75
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