The Future of the Internet Perspectives emerging from R&D Ulf Wahlberg Vice President Industry and Research Relations December 1, 2009
Five technological revolutions in 240 years IT & telecommunication Oil, mass production, automobile Steel, heavy engineering, steam ships Steam, coal, iron, railways The industrial revolution Source: Professor Carlota Perez Universities of Cambridge, Tallinn and Sussex
Impressive broadband growth 3000 Broadband subscription forecast Subscriptions (million) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Fixed Mobile 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Internal Ericsson Mobile broadband 80% of all subscriptions in 2013 Mobile Broadband includes: HSPA, CDMA2000 EV-DO, LTE, Mobile WiMAX, Other Fixed broadband includes: DSL, FTTx, Cable modem, Enterprise leased lines
Fixed data traffic Last mile access 07-14 Fixed Internet traffic Fixed IPTV traffic 900 1 800 800 1 600 700 1 400 Yearly Exabytes 600 500 400 300 Yearly Exabytes 1 200 1 000 800 600 200 100 Last mile access Unicast traffic 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 400 200 Last mile access Mainly broadcast traffic 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Internal Ericsson This slide contains forward looking statements
Access technologies - fixed Vectorized VDSL 10 GPON 100 28 13 VDSL2 ADSL2+ GPON ~20 km 8 ADSL2 ADSL 1 Km 2 Km 3 Km 4 Km 5 Km 6 Km 7 Km Length, Km
Towards terabit transmission Status & assumptions 1T 1TbE 100G Network aggregation BW Driven by Internet usage 100GbE Bandwidth [b/s] 10G 1G GbE 10GbE Computing I/O BW Driven by Moore s Law 40GbE FE 100M 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 First 100Gb Ethernet on routers in 2009 100G DWDM deployment in 2010 Terabit standards and products possible in 2015 DWDM = Dense Wavelength Division Multiplexing
100G+ research Technology toolbox Many technologies has to be used in next generation optical transmission systems
Reported mobile subscriptions By system standard, 07-14 This slide contains forward looking statements 8000 Reported Subscriptions (million) 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Other CDMA Mobile WiMAX TDSCDMA GSM/GPRS/EDGE WCDMA/HSPA LTE Source: Internal Ericsson
This slide contains forward looking statements Mobile traffic, voice and data 30 Subscriber traffic in mobile access networks 25 Notebooks Yearly Exabytes 20 15 10 5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Definitions: se note pages. DVB-H, Mobile WiMax, M2M and WiFi traffic not included Mobile PC Mobile Handheld Mobile Voice Source: Internal Ericsson Smartphones Phones
Traffic growth All networks Source: NetQB
HSPA offers true broadband today Part of 3GSM technology family LTE Advanced HSPA Evolution The Future of the Internet - Perspectives emerging from R&D 3G/HSPA 3G LTE High Speed Packet Access Long Term Evolution Target Peak rate 384 kbps 3.6 Mbps 7/14 Mbps 21/28/42 Mbps ~150 Mbps 2002 2005 2007 2008/2009 2009 1 Gbps 2013 Around 60 operators 1000 x Higher offer 7 Peak Mbps Rate user in speeds 10 years or higher today
Technology Evolution Broadband Capacity Last mile Bandwidth Fixed Mobile Capacity Multi-Access IP Edge Routers Edge 1Gbps 00Mbps 2000x 2000x FTTH LTE 10Mbps 2Mbps 500kbps ADSL SDSL 1 st gen BRAS ADSL2+ VDSL Eth BNG VDSL2 GPON Next-gen Eth MSER HSPA EDGE 1 st gen GGSN HSPA Evol HSPA Evolved 50x SAE Gateway LTE Multi-Access Edge 50x 480Gbps 240Gbps 10Gbps 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Beyond voice The telecom market is redefining itself PC Games Music Information & Collaboration Mobile Media TV Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24
Consumer electronics is going mobile Happening now Notebooks with HSPA Other devices will follow MID Navigation Car entertainment, Gaming Cameras 2011: more than 50% of all new notebooks
Internet of Things From households to individuals and devices Connected devices Laptop Smartphones Netbooks Fixed Broadband Fixed Telephony Ericsson AB 2009 Mobile Telephony 2009-11-24
Towards 50 Billion Connections Fixed Mobile Today 4 Billion Subscribers Tomorrow 400 Million Household Full Service Broadband 50 Billion Devices Ericsson AB 2009 2009-11-24
Understanding ICT s carbon footprint ICT responsible for 2% of global CO2 emissions How can we reduce our own sector emissions? ICT key to reduce the other 98% of CO2 emissions How can we help reduce other sector emissions?
CO 2 per subscriber, Ericsson networks Annual CO 2 /subscriber [kg] 200 AMPS 150 100 50 GSM WCDMA 25 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Mobile Subscription now 25 kg CO 2 per year Same as driving car for 1h
ICT contribution potential > Smart metering > Energy Internet > Digital society > Smart business 15-20% Global Carbon Emission 2007 Energy supply Industry 26% 19% > Facility management > Monitor & control Buildings Travel & transport Forestry 8% 13% 17% > Virtual presence > Smart transport Source: IPCC Agriculture Waste 49 billion ton 14% 3%
Ambient Sweden - a national project to secure and advance Sweden s positions with respect to the Internet of the future IVA is the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences A network of decision-makers A platform for influencing the development of society A promoter of knowledge transfer
Ambient Sweden Six focus areas: New opportunities for the private and public sectors Common platforms for services and infrastructure Development within schools and in working life Research and innovation Effective regulations and legislation International profiling Ambient Sweden 21
Communications value for society Individuals, businesses, and governments Industrial growth Entertainment Sustainable society Social Government efficiency Personal efficiency New business opportunities Enterprise efficiency