TOWARDS EIGHTH SESSION OF THE SPECA THEMATIC WORKING GROUP MEETING ON KNOWLEDGE-BASED DEVELOPMENT ALMATY, KAZAKHSTAN 20-22ND SEPTEMBER Shaina Hasan & Jeremy Marand ICT and Development Section ICT and Disaster Risk Reduction Division ESCAP
2 Disaster impact in SPECA The SPECA region is highly vulnerable to disasters such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, drought and extreme temperature During the period 2000-2015, the reported 210 disasters have caused 10,639 deaths, and affected more than 16 million people Percentage distribution of disasters in SPECA region ( % in terms of disaster Occurrence) Floods are the most frequent and costliest disasters but earthquake is the predominant risk 4% 9% 18% Earthquake Flood Majority of population concentrated within areas of high or very high seismic hazard (Kyrgyzstan 99.9%, Tajikistan 88.3%, and Uzbekistan 80.4%) or within a moderate to very high hazard area (Turkmenistan 97% and Kazakhstan 43.6%) 14% 6% 4% 45% Drought Extreme Weather Landslide Storm Others Disasters have disproportionate impact in the region. According to EM-DAT (2000-2014), two countries (Afghanistan and Tajikistan) account for 75.5% of the total economic damage in SPECA region
Average annual loss in ($ million) Millions of US Dollars 3 Projected Average Annual Loss (AAL) is high Expected AAL for Multi-Hazard 300 Predicted Average Annual Economic loss in ($ million) 1000 865.1 250 247.7 800 200 600 150 100 400 326.0 239.0 303.7 50 61 200 98.4 112.7 96.4 0 19.7 9.4 Earthquake Flood Landslide Drought 0 Source: World Bank and UNISDR (2009) Source: ESCAP based on data from UNISDR (2015)
4 Seismic Hazard Map Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Caspian Sea Azerbaijan Azerbaijan Turkmenistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Uzbekistan Tajikistan Tajikistan Kyrgyz Republic Kyrgyz Republic Afghanistan Afghanistan Source: GSHP (1999)
5 Transmission Map Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Tajikistan Kyrgyz Republic Afghanistan Source: ITU, interactive map available at http://www.itu.int/itu-d/tnd-map-public/
6 Digital Divide in the Region Digital divide exists in the region. The two richest economies Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, exhibit the highest share of internet users and fixed-broadband subscribers In comparison, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan have the lowest share of internet users and fixed broadband subscribers The share of internet user in Azerbaijan was 77% as compared to 8.3% in Afghanistan Richer countries have a wider access to ICT for DRR/DRM but high adoption rates makes their respective economies more vulnerable if ICT assets are damaged There is a potential for mobile-based DRR/DRM practices in the less economically advanced countries due to a relatively affordable cost and good coverage
Missing Digital Divide in the region 7 ICT penetration in SPECA in 2015, by country 187.2 132.8 145.9 111.3 98.6 61.6 77.0 72.9 60.9 60.0 73.3 42.8 30.2 31.0 24.7 28.7 18.7 19.8 19.0 13.0 8.3 12.1 12.1 15.0 6.0 7.1 0.3 3.7 5.3 8.4 3.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 Afghanistan Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan fixed-telephone sub per 100 inhabitants Percentage of individuals using the internet active mobile-broadband sub per 100 inhabitants mobile-cellular sub per 100 inhabitants fixed-broadband sub per 100 inhabitants Source ESCAP, based on ITU (2016). Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan lead the way in terms of ICT indicators Afghanistan and Tajikistan are behind
8 Broadband affordability and fixed broadband subscriptions in SPECA and neighbouring countries (2015) 150 Afghanistan 100 50 Tajikistan 0 Turkmenistan Pakistan Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan Armenia Georgia Azerbaijan 0 5 10 15 20 Fixed Broadband Sub. per 100 Inhabitants Sources: cost of fixed broadband and data on fixed broadband subscriptions from ITU (2016), GNI data from the World Development Indicators (2016). Digital divide is also noticeable in terms of coverage and cost However, good mobile-cellular network coverage everywhere and price of running a mobile phone relatively cheaper compared to other countries in the same income groups Main point to emphasize- affordability
9 Monthly cost of running mobile phone in SPECA (by country, 2014) 30 Low-income average (25.1) 19.3 9.9 Lower-middle income countries (6.8) World average (6.6) 4.9 1.7 Upper-middle income countries (2.6) 0.9 0 Afghanistan Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Sources: data on cost from ITU (2016), GNI per capita from World Development Indicators (2016).
Businesses using the internet (%) 10 Digital divide can also be observed between firms Factors influencing ICT use include business size 100 Azerbaijan Internet use, by business size 100 88.5 Kazakhstan 95.3 SMEs rely extensively on ICT in their activities 75 75 70.1 77.5 73.7 Availability of ICT tools for DRR/DRM practices will depend on companies characteristics in terms of location, ICT affordability and size 50 58.5 50 49.6 ICT generates economic growth and economic growth leads to higher ICT adoption rates 25 16.7 25.0 37.0 25 37.4 3.8 Therefore: ICT is not only a tool, but also a crucial economic asset that needs to be protected both at the macro and micro levels during disasters 0 2007 2013 Micro (0-9 employees) Medium (50-249 employees) 0 2007 2013 Small (10-49 employees) Source: ESCAP, based on UNCTAD (2015)
11 ICT use in business (%) by enterprise size class Azerbaijan, 2013 73.9 48.3 50.6 49.4 42.5 56.5 29.9 29.9 0.4 2.4 9.0 9.1 6.9 11.8 4.3 9.2 2.5 11.2 Micro enterprises Small enterprises Medium enterprises Telephoning Instant messaging/bulletin boards Information from government e-mails Customer services Internet banking Source: ESCAP, based on UNCTAD (2015) SMEs in the region use ICT for multiple reasons. Internet is used in SMEs in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan for the following: Communication: telephoning, e-mails Finance: internet banking Online services for customers: delivery, online orders Getting information from the government
12 ICT use in business (%) by enterprise size class Kazakhstan, 2013 65.3 47.6 51.9 31.7 34.939.9 29.8 32.8 38.8 6.4 3.6 9.1 16.6 17.2 21.3 8.7 10.4 12.8 7.3 11.8 13.2 Micro enterprises Small enterprises Medium enterprises Telephoning Instant messaging/bulletin boards Information from government e-mails Customer services Internet banking Financial services (excl. internet banking) Source: ESCAP, based on UNCTAD (2015)
13 Protecting ICT Assets Preparedness Identify risks and vulnerabilities through hazard mapping, seismic microzonation, Understand the risk for businesses and promote Business continuity plans (BCP) in SMEs. Less than 2% of SMEs in Kazakhstan are insured against natural disaster risks. 83% of SMEs surveyed in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) area did not have any Business Continuity Plan Training and information about good practices. Governments can provide training and information about good DRR/DRM practices to SMEs Better informed firms can urge their suppliers to adopt BCP as they will be more aware of the disruptions caused by natural disasters in value chains
14 Protecting ICT Assets Robustness and reliability Measures to mitigate traffic congestion on the network during disasters Measures to protect the quality and speed of data Increased back-up power at the base stations and all other communication facilities to counter electricity outages More legal and normative requirements for crucial ICT infrastructures such as datacenters and base stations Redundancy Offer redundancy. Alternative paths for terrestrial internet links, more internet providers at the international frontier Projects such as the Trans-Eurasian Information Super Highway (TASIM) project initiated by Azerbaijan, the Asia-Pacific Information Superhighway (AP-IS) can address these needs
15 Protecting ICT Assets Enhancing e- resilience Backing up data to improve e-resilience. Save data on external drive. Offsite backup by using cloud technology Increase Use of Innovative technology in Future Increase use of cloud computing Mobile networks can be scaled up quickly using mobile base station or cells on wheels to offer redundancy Mobile Network Big Data (MNBD)- extremely large datasets generated from different data sources can be used for disaster data collection eg. population displacement
Regional Cooperation Many disasters are transboundary in nature with impacts felt across countries Need to promote regional cooperation and mechanisms particularly for transboundary disasters Establishment of Asian and Pacific Centre for the Development of Disaster Information Management (APDIM), in Tehran, Iran as regional institution of ESCAP Aims to reduce human losses and material damages from the negative impact of natural hazards through enhancement of disaster information management in the region through south-south cooperation Particular focus on vulnerable subregions of South and South West Asia and North and Central Asia The Asia Pacific Superhighway (AP-IS) initiative mandated by member states of ESCAP aims to provide seamless connectivity across the continent, to enhance regional connectivity and ICT resilience across the Continent.
17 In preparation for future disasters Do countries take into account disaster risks in their national policies, programmes and planning in terms of ICT? How prepared are countries for seismic risks to protect damage to ICT infrastructure? Do countries have a DRM plan for humanitarian assistance if the ICT infrastructure is damaged? How to build disaster resilience of countries that are both high-risk and low-capacity with limited ICT infrastructure?
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