SPARC LABORATORY DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT (DRM/DRR) TEAM Summary of Research Directions Presented by Sayanti Mukhopadhyay, PhD Candidate Date: 12/14/2016 Director: Makarand (Mark) Hastak, Ph.D., PE, CCP Professor and Head of Division of Construction Engineering and Management Professor of Lyles School of Civil Engineering 1
Prof. Hastak DRM/DRR Group: Areas of Expertise ROLE OF INFRASTRUCTURE IN DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT & INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT Criticality, Vulnerability & Severity Assessment DRR / DRM Post disaster supply chain & business continuity issues Capital rehabilitation planning Infrastructure Management Infrastructure risk Infrastructure Resilience & Capacity building DSS for Electricity sector Resilience investments *DSS: Decision Support System Debris Management Disaster financing & reinsurance Budget allocation & prioritization 1.Resilience & capacity building of infrastructure / communities 2. How to allocate & prioritize budget for such investments? Planning optimal strategies for rehabilitation Post disaster Housing Infrastructure finance
Optimal Planning for Infrastructure capacity building, resilience Water Treatment Plant FLOOD Hospital Power Plant 7 layers of interrelated critical infrastructure DEVELOPED MODELS 1. Vulnerability, Severity, Criticality Assessment 2. Disaster impact mitigation support system (DIMSuS) 3. Infrastructure capacity building analysis TOOLS USED 1. Bayesian analysis 2. Systems dynamics 3. Discrete event simulation 4. Genetic algorithm 5. Network analysis Emergency Short Term Simulating emergency, short- and long-term recovery strategies t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8 t9 t9 t10 t11 Time Disaster 1 Long Term Emergency Disaster 2 t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7 t8 t9 t9 t10 t11 Time Disaster 3 Simulating repeat events would fine tune the process for Building Capacities and Enhancing community Resilience Short Term
Stress-strain capacity analysis for post-disaster infrastructure Disaster impacts on operation of critical infrastructure Deteriorated capacities of supporting infrastructure Enormous demands for infrastructural service Increase in functional stress on infrastructure facilities Failure of the infrastructure to provide required service for recovery Hospital Networks Zone of influence Pre-disaster condition Post-disaster condition Stress-strain concept - Functional stress for an infrastructure is defined as demand on an infrastructure during unit time - Strain of an infrastructure is defined as the rate at which the capacity is used in response to the applied stress Hospital Infrastructure System Expected Outcomes - Identification of bottleneck infrastructure - Evaluation of ex-post capacity needs of critical infrastructure
Infrastructure Supply Chain Network based on Business Continuity 5 Supply chain networks (SCN) needs reliable services of 7 types of critical infrastructure for service continuity Civil / Civic / Social / Environmental / Financial / Educational / Cyber 1 1. Develop a robust supply chain network model with respect to supply chain continuity management Supply Chain Network Model 1 2 Critical Infrastructure Network Model 2 2. Develop a infrastructure network model and identify critical routes and infrastructures 3 3 3. Combine two models to assess as coupling system 4 Criticality Assessment (Social & Economic Contribution) Activity Analysis Infrastructure Mapping Infrastructure-Supply chain Coupling Model 5 4 4. Perform criticality, vulnerability, and serviceability assessments for the infrastructure connectivity between supply chain entities in terms of Business Continuity 5 5. Find possible bottlenecks infrastructures and develop optimal strategies accordingly Serviceability Assessment Assistance Level Vulnerability Assessment (Structural & Functional Failure) P(Failure of Infrastructure) Relative Criticality Monte Carlo Simulation Method serviceability P(Failure of Interdependent Infrastructure) P(Failure of Supply Chain Infrastructure)
Strategic decision making for electricity sector resilience investments Increased economic loss Cascading Failure in Infrastructure Business Disruption Communication Failure Propagation PGI vulnerability Triggers Natural Gas & Oil Water/Waste Water System Government & Business Healthcare Facilities Infrastructure Damage Public Health & Safety Transportation INCREASED POWER OUTAGES (Climate Central 2014) Resilience Investment Issues 1.Extreme event risks are not considered in regulatory decisionmaking process 2.No incentive for investor-owned utilities (IOUs) to invest in overall risk minimization 3.Utilities work in a highly competitive & strict regulatory environment 4.Economic loss due to cascading impacts are undervalued 5.Investment strategies only consider reliability, not resilience enhancement Risk Based Decision Support System (RDSS) 1.State electricity sector vulnerabilities based on historical tend & patterns 2.Estimate power outage risks in the electric sector 3.Assess cascading economic losses due to such power outages 4.Assist regulatory commissions to make informed decision making & consider minimizing extreme event risks in their regulatory decisions.
Disaster Debris/Waste Management Disaster debris (FEMA 2007) Materials both natural and man-made Any material including trees, branches, personal property & building material on public or private property that is directly deposited by a disaster Historical amount of debris generated by a disaster Adaptive Decision Support System to navigate complexity of post-disaster debris management Football stadium = about 1M CY(Cubic yard) Debris generated Instantly overwhelms current solid waste management capacity (5~10 times higher than annual solid waste from a community) Debris removal : 27~40% of the total disaster recovery cost 1. Develop a framework for effective post-disaster debris management 2. Identify network interdependency & network dynamics to optimize debris removal operation 3. Temporary Debris Management Site design/selection model to handle debris/waste in economic and environmental ways 4. Provide a GIS-based decision support system for optimal solutions and monitoring system for effective coordination among agencies
Disaster insurance and infrastructure policy Risk Analysis Framework for Entities Involved in DRR There is a need to reduce the gap between overall losses and insured losses provide financial protection (ex ante) for postdisaster services Entities at macro level Entities at macro level Federal government or its ministry Multi-lateral financial institutions (Re) Entities Insurance at state companies level Special purpose vehicles Interaction among entities Entities at community level Interactions or relationships Needs Roles and responsibilities Entities at micro level Organization structure Risks at macro level Risks at macro level Disaster risks Country risks Credit risks Market risks Event risks Risks at state level Liquidity risks Risks at community level Risks at micro level Impact analysis modules for Impact entities analysis at macro modules level for entities at macro level Economic impact Social impact Environmental impact Financial Impact impact analysis modules for entities at state level Impact analysis modules for entities at community level Economic impact module Financial impact module Impact analysis modules for entities at micro level Risk indicators at macro Risk indicators levelat macro level Socio-economic risk indicators Environmental risk indicators Development indicators Monitoring Risk indicators and control at state indicators level Risk structure and their relationships Impact analysis modules Risk indicators Risk parameters Risk equations Interdependencies Risk indicators at community level Probability graphs Risk tables Risk indicators at micro level Interaction among entities Risk structure and their relationships Impact analysis modules Expected Results- Input / Output Risk indicators
Summary Decision Support Systems Optimal Planning for infrastructure capacity building / resilience Assessing Strain Capacity using Functional Stress Strain Analysis Infrastructure Supply Chain using Business Continuity Principle Extreme-event risk minimization & resilience enhancement in electricity sector Disaster Debris/Waste Management Disaster insurance and infrastructure policy Can Be Applied to Both Developed & Developing Countries
Thanks! Makarand (Mark) Hastak, PhD, PE, CCP Professor and Head of Division of Construction Engineering and Management Professor of Lyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University Email: hastak@purdue.edu