The Future Outlook and Business Advantage of 3G Broadband and All-IP The Vision of Seamless Mobility José Geraldo A. de Almeida New Business Development Networks and Enterprise Business Motorola, Inc.
It s being driven by the consumer ANY WHERE Home Office Auto Airport On the go ANY NETWORK Wireline Cable Satellite Cellular Fixed Wireless CONNECT ME INFORM ME ENTERTAIN ME SECURE ME EMPOWER ME ANY DEVICE Landline Email Music Gaming Mobile
Seamless Communication is putting the consumer in control, What They Want information, communication, and entertainment When They Want morning, noon, and night Where They Want home, work and on the road How They Want telephone, tv, pc, pda, portable DVD, cell phone, ipod, laptop
Mobile Revenue Sources Are Changing What s Next for Operators? 100% Emerging Markets Lead In % Of New Subscriber Additions Through 2010 # of Subscribers 3 2 1 0 Worldwide Forecast 2005 vs 2010 Year-End New Subscriber Adds And Cumulative Subscribers 2005 2010 CAGR -29% 0.4 0.1 (in billions) 2005 2010 2005 2010 2.1 3.0 50% 0% 100 87.6% 87.9% 87.6% 88.5% 87.2% 87.0% 12.4% 12.1% Rich Data Services Drive Operator Revenues Worldwide Wireless Operator Data Revenue ($B) 92 12.4% 11.5% 12.8% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Emerging Markets Developed Markets 13.0% New Sub Adds Cum Subs 80 60 40 20 13 20 34 52 71 Total SMS Rich Data MMS Key Rich Data Applications Gaming Music Video LBS Laptop Access VoIP Source: EMC and Motorola Networks - GMS, July 2005 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
The Revenue Possibilities Mobile data revenues $189B by 2009 - Strategy Analytics, 2005 Server-based IP PBX shipments from 9.5M lines to 28.1 m in 2009 - ZDNet Research, 2005 Mobile music revenue to grow to $9B in 2009 - Juniper Research, 2005 Global mobile gaming revenue to reach $8.4B in 2008 ARC, 2005 Over 66M cellular/wifi handsets by 2009 In-Stat, 2005 > 250M customers to subscribe to video services on mobile phone. Mobile video service expands to $27B business by 2010 ABI Research, 2005
Dramatic Growth Forecasted For Mobile Data Services Revenue Up From $75B In 2005 To $169B By 2009 2009 Data Revenue $169B % of ARPU that is data Source: Yankee Group, November 7, 2005 2005 2009 15% 21% Personalization 8% Information 13% Entertainment 28% Corporate Connect 4% Communication s 47% Source: Strategy Analytics, August 2004
Attractive Pricing Is Also Driving Data User Growth and Usage Worldwide Average Price ($) Of SMS vs. Picture MMS SMS 30KB MMS 50KB MMS 100KB MMS 3X To 4X Higher Revenue From More Engaging Applications 0.37 0.40 0.45 0.12 3Q 2005 Source: Informa Telecom & Media, World Cellular Data Metrics, December 2005
Worldwide Operator Revenue From Data Grows 33% 3Q 2004 To 3Q 2005 Strongest Growth In North America And Emerging Markets North America 146% Latin America 62% Africa 52% Eastern Europe 45% Asia Pacific 32% Western Europe 13% Middle East % YoY Growth 3Q04 / 3Q05 NA 6.20 8.19 5.53 6.26 Worldwide Data Service Revenue 3Q 2004 vs. 3Q 2005 $ billions 2.29 3Q 2004 3Q 2005 Worldwide 33% 0.93 0.46 0.66 0.09 0.13 0.11 0.20 0.00 0.02 Asia Pacific Western Europe North America Eastern Europe Africa Latin America Middle East Worldwide Data Service Revenue $13.3B 3Q 2004 $17.8B 3Q 2005 Source: Informa Telecom & Media, World Cellular Data Metrics, December 2005
Mobile Data Continues To Contrast to Declining Mobile Voice ARPU Worldwide Total Voice vs. Data ARPU % Data ARPU Of Total ARPU By Region 2Q 2004 2Q 2005 2Q 2004 2Q 2005 $25.52 $22.10 15.8% 17.4% 12.3% 13.5% 8.7% 10.7% 7.5% $3.48 $3.90 4.0% Data ARPU Voice ARPU AP EMEA LAC NA Source: Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrix, September 2005 Worldwide % YoY Growth 2Q 04 vs. 2Q 05 Data 12% Voice 13% Worldwide data contributed 15% to total ARPU in 2Q 2005
Carrier Deployed and Planned Applications Calling Card Ringback Tones Text Messaging Contact Center 31% 31% 44% 50% Voice is still the killer application, but other apps are catching up Conferencing 50% Multimedia Messaging 50% Data Apps 56% PoC 56% Video Stream 63% IP Centrex 69% Gaming 69% Music Stream FMC-Voice 75% 88% 0 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source Venture Data, Aug 2005
Seamless End-User Experiences Applications VoIP Services Seamless Session Services Integrated Mobile Marketplace Logistics & Asset Mgmt. Web Services Multicast Messaging Identity Policy Management IP Core Service Delivery Value Chain Management ColorNotes Messaging M-Wallet Service Enablement Location Based Services Presence Mobile TV - DVBH Push-To-X
CDMA Delivers the Solution RAN HIGH DATA RATE & CAPACITY 1X CORE 1xEV-DO 1xEV-DO Rev. A/B MC DO or MC OFDM NON-REAL TIME E-MAIL w/ Attachment S/W Download Music Download Full Web Browsing E-MAIL Multi-Media Messaging Transaction Based Apps Live Video Broadcast Video Conference Interactive Gaming Location Based Services REAL TIME Circuit Switch MSS-C Circuit & Packet Telephony IMS Download Ringers SMS Voice LOW-MED DATA & CAPACITY
The 1xEV-DO RevAlution
The 1xEV-DO RevAlution New Simultaneous Video, Voice, & Data Services VoIP Video Telephony Gaming Media Server IP 1xEV-DO Rev A RAN IMS
The 1xEV-DO RevAlution Value to the Operator Increase Capacity Real Time Services Concurrent Sessions Key Technology Enhancements Efficiency Latency Improvement Quality of Service
Benefits of All-IP Solution Superior End User Services PoC / Push to X VoIP Web Conferencing / Live Video Broadcast Faster Time to Market Easy integration of IP services into the network Easy 3rd Party Integrated Services Multi-Access Service transparency Chat, IM, Audio / Video Communication etc. across WAN / WLAN access Motorola E2E IP solution HANDSETS RADIO ACCESS NETWORK CORE NETWORK Network Services IP-RAN IP Switching IP Application Servers End To End Enabling Architecture APPLICATIONS SERVERS - at home, at work, on the move
Mobile Me Consumer is at the center
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