SARRIM AN OPERATIONAL TOOL FOR ROCKET RELEASES IMPACT ASSESMENT. Cambridge 2007

Transcription

1 SARRIM AN OPERATIONAL TOOL FOR ROCKET RELEASES IMPACT ASSESMENT Marco Cencetti 1, Vince Veilleur 1, Armand Albergel and Christophe Olry 1 CNES, Service Environnement et Sauvegarde Sol, BP Kourou cedex France ARIA Technologies 8-10, rue de la Ferme Boulogne-Billancourt France ( aalbergel@aria.fr ; marco.cencetti@cnes.fr ) Cambridge th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes Cambridge July nd-5th, 007

2 Summary What releases for what uses? Launch vehicle propellant in Kourou CSG Nominal launch and failure Pollutant dispersion modeling principle Analytical solutions for Validation Stabilized Cloud Short range Large range Microphysics of Al O 3 particles Launcher explosion Batch mode Statistical approach Conclusion Cambridge th Harmo (007) Cambridge July nd-5th, 007

3 Solid or liquid propellant? RS ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTANTS Propergol Hypergol Solid propellant Liquid propellant HCl MMH CO UDMH CO HNO3 ALO3 NH4 NOx Cambridge th Harmo (007) Cambridge July nd-5th, 007 3

4 Nominal launch Ariane 5 40t x of solid propellant burnt in 10s For what use? Launch failure (fire ball and scattered solid propellant) Solid propellant fires RS Booster test bench (BEAP) Cambridge th Harmo (007) Cambridge July nd-5th, 007 4

5 Launch Wind 11th Harmo (007) Computed parameters 5 values per receptor Ta, Td Peak, 10mnMax, Dose Concentration T a C Conc ppm*s M(x,y,z) 10 T d Cambridge July nd-5th, 007 Max «peak» value Time ppm Max «10mn average» Time Dose = Time ppm Cambridge 007 C( t) dt + 0 5

6 Principle Puff model LAUNCH 11th Harmo (007) Dispersion : a 3 steps algorithm Short Range STABILIZED CLOUD 1 Cambridge July nd-5th, 007 Analytical solution (erf) Cambridge Large Range 6

7 = Dispersion : a 3 steps algorithm STEP 1 : The «stabilized» Cloud ΔΦ Δ z = Analytical iterative BRIGGS formulation where the virtual potential temperature gradient is computed from ground to the k th layer : Thermal Launch pad's deluge system effects are also considered Cambridge 007 k i=1 k κ zi - z j /k Φi - Φj/ k j=1 ϕ =1 k i=1 k z- i zj/k j=1 11th Harmo (007) Cambridge July nd-5th, 007 7

8 = Dispersion : a 3 steps algorithm STEP : Short range impact Analytical puff model : puffs follow 3D trajectories computed from initial condition (flame trenches including ) and final stabilized cloud C( x, y, z, t) = i= 1, N exp ( π ) 3 / σ () t σ () t ih iv ( x x () t ) ci exp () σ ih t ( y y () t ) ci exp () σ ih t ( z z () t ) ( z + z ( t) ) ci + ci exp () t σ σ () t Cambridge 007 iv M i iv 11th Harmo (007) Cambridge July nd-5th, 007 8

9 = Dispersion : a 3 steps algorithm STEP 3 : Long range impact Analytical solution for all vertical segment sources : D L,K = F{K} πσ yl,k k k-1 L (z -z )u exp - 1 y σ yl,k N α -i(ztl -z bl)-z i-1 +z+vx/u j L fj γ i erf j j=1 ι σ =0 zl,k +erf i(z - z ) + z - z - V x / u tl bl i j L σ zl,k +γ j i+1 i(ztl -z bl )-z bl +z i +z-vx/u j L erf σ zl,k - i (z - z ) + z - z - z + V x/u tl bl bl i-1 j L + erf σ zl,k α -i (ztl - z bl ) + zi - z - Vjx / u L i + γ erf j ι σ =1 zl,k Cambridge 007 i(z -z )-z +z+vx/u tl bl i-1 j L + erf σ zl,k i (z - z ) + z - z - z + V x / u tl bl bl i-1 j L +γ i-1 erf j σ zl,k -i(z - z ) - z + z + z - V x / u tl bl bl i j L + erf σ zl,k 11th Harmo (007) Cambridge July nd-5th, 007 9

10 Aluminium Oxide (Al O 3 ) case RED WET WHITE DRY Final Size H O Al O 3 HCl (1) Direct Condensation/ Evaporation process F(RH) No evaporation from particle ventilation F(V g ) () Coalescence process When falling collision of big particles on smaller No fragmentation of the biggest droplets (3) ph Acid from solving HCl Acid rain Cambridge th Harmo (007) Cambridge July nd-5th,

11 CL9' CL30' Validation (nominal launch) Cloud rise : Visual evaluation helicopter tracking (GPS) Photo interpretation Concentration and deposition Environmental Survey plan Vol 508 Concentration HCl (ppm) 'CL1' 'CL' 'CL3' 'CL4' 'CL5' 'CL6' 'CL7' 'CL8' 'CL9' 'CL10' 'CL11' 'CL13' 'CL14' 'CL15' 'CL16' 'CL17' 'CL18' 'CL19' 'CL0' 'CL1' 'CL' 'CL3' 'CL4' 'CL5' 'CL6' CL7' CL8' analyse HCl gaz tir 508 sarrim HCl gaz 508_ sarrim HCl gaz 508_3 sarrim HCl gaz 508_4 sarrim HCl gaz 508_5 sarrim HCl gaz Cambridge th Harmo (007) Cambridge July nd-5th,

12 Explosion case Cambridge km Fusion des nuages Independant plume from each piece of solid propellant very high overestimation of ground concentration 11th Harmo (007) Cambridge July nd-5th, 007 1

13 Explosion case Combination of clouds from pieces Two pieces 1 cloud if enough overlapping Iterative process new clouds may also overlap Calibration using CFD (GEDEON/MERCURE Software) Case 4 HCl iso 0 mg/m3 t=5mn t=10mn Cambridge 007 Validation using CFD code GEDEON 11th Harmo (007) Cambridge July nd-5th,

14 Explosion case 10 km With «fusion» Large range Cambridge 007 Without fusion Max 6 ppm Max 17 ppm 11th Harmo (007) Cambridge July nd-5th,

15 «Batch» mode : Statistical assessment Using a 18 years radiosounding (RS) database over Kourou CSG site Routine and Launch radiosoundings «Quick list» button extraction of profiles Per day / month / hour Output Sorted list of RS of maximal impact Map of the localisation of all maximum A reduced data set of «worst cases» Cambridge th Harmo (007) Cambridge July nd-5th,

16 Conclusion SARRIM as an operational tool CPU Time : OK for use one hour before the launch Compatible with regulatory documents in regard of local authorities Helpful for safety planning and management Improvements Short range Not in the initial purpose (large range impact) Present solution too conservative (overestimation) New improvement in comparison with CFD in progress Forecast mode Using Forecast profiles Cambridge 007 Improvement of the Steady-state assumption 11th Harmo (007) Cambridge July nd-5th,