Lasso Regression: Regularization for feature selection

Transcription

1 Lasso Regression: Regularization for feature selection CSE 416: Machine Learning Emily Fox University of Washington April 12, 2018 Symptom of overfitting 2 Often, overfitting associated with very large estimated parameters ŵ y price ($) square feet (sq.ft.) f ŵ x OVERFIT 1

2 Training Data y Feature extraction h(x) ML model ŵ ŷ ML algorithm Quality metric 3 Consider specific total cost Want to balance: i. How well function fits data ii. Magnitude of coefficients Total cost = measure of fit + measure of magnitude of coefficients RSS(w) w

3 Consider resulting objective What if ŵ selected to minimize 2 RSS(w) + λ w 2 tuning parameter = balance of fit and magnitude Ridge regression (a.k.a L 2 regularization) 5 Measure of magnitude of regression coefficient What summary # is indicative of size of regression coefficients? - Sum? - Sum of absolute value? - Sum of squares (L 2 norm) 6 3

4 Feature selection task Why might you want to perform feature selection? Efficiency: - If size(w) = 100B, each prediction is expensive - If ŵ sparse, computation only depends on # of non-zeros many zeros X ŷ i = ŵ j h j (x i ) ŵ j 6=0 Interpretability: - Which features are relevant for prediction? 8 4

5 Sparsity: Housing application 9 $? Lot size Single Family Year built Last sold price Last sale price/sqft Finished sqft Unfinished sqft Finished basement sqft # floors Flooring types Parking type Parking amount Cooling Heating Exterior materials Roof type Structure style Dishwasher Garbage disposal Microwave Range / Oven Refrigerator Washer Dryer Laundry location Heating type Jetted Tub Deck Fenced Yard Lawn Garden Sprinkler System Sparsity: Reading your mind very sad very happy Activity in which brain regions can predict happiness? 10 5

6 Option 1: All subsets or greedy variants Find best model of size:

7 Find best model of size: Find best model of size:

8 Find best model of size: Find best model of size:

9 Find best model of size: Find best model of size:

10 Find best model of size: Find best model of size:

11 Find best model of size: Find best model of size:

12 Note: Not necessarily nested! Note: Not necessarily nested!

13 Find best model of size: Find best model of size:

14 Find best model of size: Find best model of size:

15 Find best model of size: Find best model of size:

16 Choosing model complexity? Option 1: Assess on validation set Option 2: Cross validation Option 3+: Other metrics for penalizing model complexity like BIC 31 Complexity of all subsets How many models were evaluated? - each indexed by features included y i = ε i y i = w 0 h 0 (x i ) + ε i y i = w 1 h 1 (x i ) + ε i y i = w 0 h 0 (x i ) + w 1 h 1 (x i ) + ε i y i = w 0 h 0 (x i ) + w 1 h 1 (x i ) + + w D h D (x i )+ ε i [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] 2 D 2 8 = = 1,073,741, = x B = HUGE!!!!!! Typically, computationally infeasible 32 16

17 Greedy algorithms Forward stepwise: Starting from simple model and iteratively add features most useful to fit Backward stepwise: Start with full model and iteratively remove features least useful to fit Combining forward and backward steps: In forward algorithm, insert steps to remove features no longer as important Lots of other variants, too Emily Fox 33 Option 2: Regularize 17

18 Ridge regression: L 2 regularized regression Total cost = measure of fit + λ measure of magnitude of coefficients RSS(w) 2 w 2 =w w 2 D Encourages small weights but not exactly 0 35 Coefficient path ridge 36 coefficients ŵ j λ bedrooms bathrooms sqft_living sqft_lot floors yr_built yr_renovat waterfront 18

19 Using regularization for feature selection Instead of searching over a discrete set of solutions, can we use regularization? - Start with full model (all possible features) - Shrink some coefficients exactly to 0 i.e., knock out certain features - Non-zero coefficients indicate selected features 37 Thresholding ridge coefficients? Why don t we just set small ridge coefficients to 0? 38 0 # bedrooms # bathrooms sq.ft. living sq.ft. lot floors year built year renovated last sales price cost per sq.ft. heating # showers waterfront 19

20 Thresholding ridge coefficients? Selected features for a given threshold value 39 0 # bedrooms # bathrooms sq.ft. living sq.ft. lot floors year built year renovated last sales price cost per sq.ft. heating # showers waterfront Thresholding ridge coefficients? Let s look at two related features 40 0 # bedrooms # bathrooms sq.ft. living sq.ft. lot floors year built year renovated last sales price cost per sq.ft. heating # showers waterfront Nothing measuring bathrooms was included! 20

21 Thresholding ridge coefficients? If only one of the features had been included 41 0 # bedrooms # bathrooms sq.ft. living sq.ft. lot floors year built year renovated last sales price cost per sq.ft. heating # showers waterfront Thresholding ridge coefficients? Would have included bathrooms in selected model 42 0 # bedrooms # bathrooms sq.ft. living sq.ft. lot floors year built year renovated last sales price cost per sq.ft. heating # showers waterfront Can regularization lead directly to sparsity? 21

22 Try this cost instead of ridge Total cost = measure of fit + λ measure of magnitude of coefficients RSS(w) w 1 = w w D Lasso regression (a.k.a. L 1 regularized regression) Leads to sparse solutions! 43 Lasso regression: L 1 regularized regression Just like ridge regression, solution is governed by a continuous parameter λ If λ=0: If λ= : RSS(w) + λ w 1 tuning parameter = balance of fit and sparsity If λ in between: 44 22

23 Coefficient path ridge 45 coefficients ŵ j λ bedrooms bathrooms sqft_living sqft_lot floors yr_built yr_renovat waterfront Coefficient path lasso coefficients ŵ j λ bedrooms bathrooms sqft_living sqft_lot floors yr_built yr_renovat waterfront 46 23

24 Revisit polynomial fit demo What happens if we refit our high-order polynomial, but now using lasso regression? Will consider a few settings of λ 47 How to choose λ: Cross validation 24

25 If sufficient amount of data Training set Validation set Test set fit ŵ λ test performance of ŵ λ to select λ * assess generalization error of ŵ λ* 49 Start with smallish dataset All data 50 25

26 Still form test set and hold out Rest of data Test set 51 How do we use the other data? Rest of data use for both training and validation, but not so naively 52 26

27 Recall naïve approach Training set Valid. set small validation set Is validation set enough to compare performance of ŵ λ across λ values? No 53 Choosing the validation set Valid. set small validation set Didn t have to use the last data points tabulated to form validation set Can use any data subset 54 27

28 Choosing the validation set Valid. set small validation set Which subset should I use? ALL! average performance over all choices 55 K-fold cross validation Rest of data N K N K N K N K N K Preprocessing: Randomly assign data to K groups (use same split of data for all other steps) 56 28

29 K-fold cross validation Valid set error 1 (λ) ŵ λ (1) For k=1,,k 1. Estimate ŵ λ (k) on the training blocks 2. Compute error on validation block: error k (λ) 57 K-fold cross validation Valid set error 2 (λ) For k=1,,k ŵ λ (2) 1. Estimate ŵ (k) λ on the training blocks 2. Compute error on validation block: error k (λ) 58 29

30 K-fold cross validation Valid set ŵ λ (3) error 3 (λ) For k=1,,k 1. Estimate ŵ λ (k) on the training blocks 2. Compute error on validation block: error k (λ) 59 K-fold cross validation Valid set ŵ λ (4) error 4 (λ) For k=1,,k 1. Estimate ŵ λ (k) on the training blocks 2. Compute error on validation block: error k (λ) 60 30

31 K-fold cross validation Valid set 61 ŵ λ (5) For k=1,,k error 5 (λ) 1. Estimate ŵ λ (k) on the training blocks 2. Compute error on validation block: error k (λ) 1 KX K Compute average error: CV(λ) = k=1 error k (λ) K-fold cross validation Valid set Repeat procedure for each choice of λ Choose λ* to minimize CV(λ) 62 31

32 What value of K? Formally, the best approximation occurs for validation sets of size 1 (K=N) leave-one-out cross validation Computationally intensive - requires computing N fits of model per λ Typically, K=5 or 10 5-fold CV 10-fold CV 63 Choosing λ via cross validation for lasso Cross validation is choosing the λ that provides best predictive accuracy Tends to favor less sparse solutions, and thus smaller λ, than optimal choice for feature selection c.f., Machine Learning: A Probabilistic Perspective, Murphy, 2012 for further discussion 64 32

33 Practical concerns with lasso Debiasing lasso Lasso shrinks coefficients relative to LS solution à more bias, less variance True coefficients (D=4096, non-zero = 160) Can reduce bias as follows: 1. Run lasso to select features 2. Run least squares regression with only selected features Relevant features no longer shrunk relative to LS fit of same reduced model L1 reconstruction (non-zero = 1024, MSE = ) Debiased (non-zero = 1024, MSE = 3.26e-005) Least squares (non-zero = 0, MSE = 1.568) Figure used with permission of Mario Figueiredo (captions modified to fit course) 66 33

34 Issues with standard lasso objective 1. With group of highly correlated features, lasso tends to select amongst them arbitrarily - Often prefer to select all together 2. Often, empirically ridge has better predictive performance than lasso, but lasso leads to sparser solution Elastic net aims to address these issues - hybrid between lasso and ridge regression - uses L 1 and L 2 penalties See Zou & Hastie 05 for further discussion 67 Summary for feature selection and lasso regression 34

35 Impact of feature selection and lasso Lasso has changed machine learning, statistics, & electrical engineering But, for feature selection in general, be careful about interpreting selected features - selection only considers features included - sensitive to correlations between features - result depends on algorithm used - there are theoretical guarantees for lasso under certain conditions 69 What you can do now Describe all subsets and greedy variants for feature selection Analyze computational costs of these algorithms Formulate lasso objective Describe what happens to estimated lasso coefficients as tuning parameter λ is varied Interpret lasso coefficient path plot Contrast ridge and lasso regression Implement K-fold cross validation to select lasso tuning parameter λ 70 35