Tendencias Globais, Oportunidades Locais

Transcription

1 1º CIMES Congresso de Inovação em Materiais e Equipamentos para Saúde 2012 Tendencias Globais, Oportunidades Locais Eduardo Golisano Diretor UN Healthcare Latin America eduardo.golisano@frost.com

2 Agenda Overview Megatrends in Healthcare Demographics Disease burden Health expenditure Technology New Business Models Industry Convergence and Opportunities for business in Brazil 2

3 Global Reflections from 2011 and the way forward Healthcare Evolves to Become a Service Industry you re sick we re quick Healthcare becomes data driven and customized. More focus on cost versus outcomes The flood gate of Health Marts: EMR leads the way to 2011 healthcare 2015 consumerize healthcare Silicon Valley and the Hi-Tech industry gets involved in Patients will be Kings and Queens of the healthcare system 1 billion seniors by 2020 and 2 billion by % of the world is under 25 years More generics technologies providing same value at lower price, stripped down feature sets Gold Rush to Emerging Markets: Indonesia, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, India, Turkey and China comprising 1/5th of the worldwide health care sales R & D spend is $ 1.15 trillion up despite economic recession Home healthcare and care givers dominate the agenda Diagnostics and Monitoring will become the golden goose The big Tidal Wave: Performance based Insurance policies 3

4 LATAM perspective Mobile devices will boom to 97.1 million in 2020 With economic crisis in US and Europe, Brazil becomes a priority for growth for global companies Mexico will have the highest per capita obesity problem overtaking the US LATAM Healthcare market revenues of USD 77 billions(share of 6.1%) 2011 USD 121 billions 2015 High infiltration of Chinese and India companies that changes the competitive landscape LATAM Healthcare industry reaches (7.5% of global market), with an annual growth of 12.2% Venezuela becomes the 13 th largest pharma market globally. Traditional medicine and supplements gaining market strength and recognition Consolidation of local mega corporations in Pharmaceutical market, specially in Brazil Smartphone Brazilian shipment will grow from 5.6 millions to 46.6 millions. Cancer incidence will increase by 30% and prostrate and breast will be the leading in incidence 4

5 What s Trending for Brazil will be the 6 th largest pharmaceutical market globally by Half of the growth in healthcare will come from the E7. Mobile Health to become the biggest business model disruptor creating access for healthcare delivery on a mass basis especially in emerging economies. Healthcare expenditure in LATAM will increase by 30%. LATAM will become a $7 billion business for medical tourism largely coming from Mexico, Brazil and Costa Rica Advanced medical technologies will be defined by "lower cost scaled down technology, reverse innovation will help leapfrog cost barriers. Venezuela will have the highest growth rate comparable. to China in medical devices (23.1% growth) Gen Y is going to break down some of the organizational sclerosis that is clogging up our healthcare system. Health enhancements set to become one of the top 10 market places in healthcare. Higher proliferation of non - healthcare companies entering healthcare.

6 Megatrends will Impact Opportunities in Healthcare Demographics New Business Models Expenditure Technology Disease Burden

7 DEMOGRAPHICS

8 Milions of People By 2020 Latin America s Estimated Population Will be 665 Million. Urban Population Will Account for 80% Population: Breakdown by Age Range (Latin America), 2010 & % in % in Years and Above Demographic Age Shifts and Ties to Disease Prevalence Prevalence in Latin America (2020): Hypertension Asthma Diabetes +80 M +55 M +30 M

9 In 2020, 66 Cities in Latin America will have more than 1 million inhabitants encompassing 230 million people 15 major cities in LA in 2020 (x1,000) São Paulo Mexico City Buenos Aires Rio de Janeiro Lima Bogotá Belo Horizonte Santiago Guadalajara Brasília Porto Alegre If counted as a single country, LA s major cities would be the 4 th most most populated country in the world. Salvador Medellín Monterrey Recife Metropolitan population > 15 million 8-15 million 1-8 million 9

10 Consumerism on the rise in LATAM: Middle class grows by 39% growth and 51% in terms of spending Middle Class Size and Consumption Spending in 2020 The power of Middle Class in Brazil (2009) Mexico: Size: million people Consumption spending: $ million Population of Class C CAGR : +39% Colombia: Size: million people Consumption spending: $ million Peru: Size: million people Consumption spending: $ million Venezuela: Size: million people Consumption spending: $ million Brazil: Size: million people Consumption spending: $ million 60% of the computers belong to Middle Class 56% of those who have internet access are Middle Class Class C was responsible for more than 49% on spendings with clothing, hair and personal care/hygiene Consumption of Class C: CAGR : +51% Argentina: Size: million people Consumption spending: $ million Those who can, will spend money out of pocket for elective, personalized medical procedures. Others will use public facilities 10

11 DISEASE BURDEN

12 Population with diabetes in South and Central America will grow 59% by 2030 and reach 40 millions Population with diabetes (20-79 years) Global Rank 2011 Country Millions 5 Brazil Mexico 10.3 Global Rank 2030 Country Millions 4 Brazil Mexico 16.4 Brazil and Mexico consolidate as leading burdens of diabetes. High rates of overweight prevalence are a main driver: 67% of men and 74% of women in Brazil, by In South and Central America, 12.3% of all deaths are due to diabetes. 12

13 HEALTH EXPENDITURE

14 LATAM Healthcare expenditure will grow 6.5% by 2015 Russia USD 149 billions CAGR: 10.5% USA USD 2.8 trillions CAGR: 3.7% Latin America USD 580 billions CAGR: 6.5% G7 USD 4,873 billions CAGR: 3.7% BRIC USD 1,076 billions CAGR: 9.4% Mexico USD 99 billions CAGR: 6.1% Brazil USD 291 billions CAGR: 6.2% Argentina USD 53 billions CAGR: 6.7% Western Europe USD 2.0 trillions CAGR: 3.0% India USD 137 billions CAGR: 10.4% China USD 499 billions CAGR: 11.0% 14

15 Hospital beds will reach 1.05 million in 2015 (CAGR 1.7%). Index per 1,000 people in LATAM (1.7) will be keep being lower than China (2.6), but higher than India (0.7) 2015 Hospital Beds Landscape in Latin America Mexico Hospital beds (x1000): CAGR: 5.5% Participation in LATAM: 13.9% Latin America Hospital beds (x1000): 1,049.8 CAGR: 1.7% Brazil Hospital beds (x1000): CAGR: 0.9% Participation in LATAM: 45.2% Argentina Hospital beds (x1000): CAGR: 0.9% Participation in LATAM: 15.1% 15

16 TECHNOLOGY

17 Network Infrastructure: Latin America Expected to Have Superior Penetration vs. Other Emerging Markets Europe: 90% China: 40% Japan: 95% North America: 90% India: 20% South America: 60% Broadband Penetration Rate 20-40% Africa: 20% 40-60% Over 60% Note: Estimations, based on current penetration rates and likely broadband build out,

18 Healthcare becomes e-healthcare Telehealth Matrix Professional Customer Focus Core Telehealth Mobile Health Software Fitness Apps Simulation/ Training Consumer/Non-healthcare Approaching Telehealth HIE Robotic Telepresence Mobility/Tablets Mobile Info Gathering and Delivery EMR/EHR Patient Portals Traditional Healthcare and Telemedicine Tele-imaging Tele-pharmacy Sleep Apnea Remote Video Mobile Telemedicine Consultation ECG Monitoring PHR PERS Remote Monitoring Medication Dispensing Activity Monitoring Wellness Systems Diabetes Monitoring Consumer Information Communication Technologies Wellness Apps Industry Focus Health Coaching Healthcare 18

19 e-healthcare becomes mobile-health Consumer Devices and Services Ecosystem The mhealth Consumer Devices and Services value chain is complex, as new emerging software and connected-device innovations are continually being introduced mhealth application growth is dependent on increasing smartphone penetration Consumer-Paid App Downloads Wireless Service Providers Application Developers Application Store Providers Platform Providers New Business Model Participants i.e.: Payer Supported, Pharma Supported Device Manufacturers

20 mhealth Landscape Apps are the most popular products/services in the current Brazilian mhealth market. The two largest segments of healthcare apps are: Cardiovascular disease is currently the most advanced market in terms of mhealth: Wellness Apps focused on: Weight management Healthy eating tips Tips for weight loss Medication Apps focused on: Medication reminders and management Medication information, such as APIs, manufacturers, side effects, dosage, etc. Tele- Electrocardiography This segment has some of the most advanced mhealth/ devices solutions. Portable electrocardiography is widely used in Brazil.

21 NEW BUSINESS MODELS/ CONVERGENCE

22 Times are changing... And the golden goose is no longer BIG PHARMA Today s world Wellness Healthcare Personal Coaching Communication/ Information Services Preventive Services Education Physical Exams Disease Management Clinical Diagnostics & Therapeutics Healthcare today Healthy Vulnerable Affected Sick Future system Future healthcare Wellness Healthcare Consumer Products Medical Health Spas Complementary and Alternative Medicines Integrated Health Solutions

23 Quality of life Virtual Hospitals: Shifting the Financial Gravity of the System 100% Healthy, Independent Living Chronic Disease Management Community Clinic Doctor s Office HOME CARE RESIDENTIAL CARE Assisted Living Assisted Living Skilled Nursing Facility Skilled Nursing Facility Specialty Clinic Community Hospital Community Hospital ACUTE CARE ICU ICU 0% $1 $10 $100 $1,000 $10,000 Cost of care per day

24 Primary Care settings will co-ordinate overall care

25 New Business Models of the Future: Value for Many Aravind Eye Hospital: Conducts 286,000 Assembly-Line type Cataract Operations per year Value for Many Will Replace Value for Money Tata Nano: The People s Car At Low Price (Rs 1 Lakh or 1,600) EChoupal Initiative by ITC: Leveraging Internet to Empower 4 Million Farmers Grameen Bank: Microfinance Bank for the 8.34 Million Borrowers in Bangladesh (97% Women) Ford Business Model

26 Healthcare: A Hot Vertical to Focus On Healthcare has been a hot area for industry integration Strong demand driven by aging population, government investment, emerging economies investing in healthcare infrastructure Healthcare: Why now? As established industries face challenges, smart companies see healthcare as a clean, 21st Century industry to invest in Healthcare will soon represent about 10-20% of the GDP in many countries. You cannot afford not to have a strategy focused on healthcare. Healthcare reform will open up new opportunities for companies with an outside perspective that can bring value to the system In the next five years we will see the emergence of the next generation of major healthcare technology companies. Timing and market entry will be critical.

27 A Few Companies Making Major Healthcare Plays

28 The Opportunity in Industry Convergence Convergence of professional medical technology with consumer technology takes technologies and responsibilities formerly the domain of healthcare professionals and puts them in the hands of patients Examples: portability, connectivity, social networking Whole Market Segments Worth Billions Opportunities for both Products & Services Philips HeartStart Home Defibrillator

29 Major Areas of Opportunity for Convergence Remote Patient Monitoring Wellness monitoring and home/self-diagnostics of chronic conditions Adherence and Compliance Technology aimed at ensuring the optimal administration of treatments High Blood Pressure Blood Glucose Monitors Insulin Pumps Home Diagnostics Emergency Response Health Apps Patient Management End-to-end management systems for patient records: admission, panels, treatments, study results, imaging archive, reimbursement, discharge Electronic Medical Records PACS Integral Hospital Platforms

30 Growth Where to place your bets in Brazil by 2015 PACS Telemedicine Biosimilars Oncology / Aesthetics Preventive Healthcare & Wellness Home Care Services Mobile Healthcare EMR/ EHR MIS Generics Hospital Services Traditional Pharmaceuticals / OTC CT INNOVATION TRIGGER SUPER GROWTH NORMALISATION LEADERSHIP Time

31 Muito Obrigado! Eduardo Golisano Healthcare BU Director Frost & Sullivan Latin America Adriana Leal Gerente de Contas Frost & Sullivan do Brasil William Fujioka Healthcare Industry Analyst Frost & Sullivan Latin America