Small-satellite Launch Services Market, Quarterly Update Q1 2018, Forecast to 2030

Transcription

1 Small-satellite Launch Services Market, Quarterly Update Q1 2018, Forecast to 2030 State of the Small-satellite Industry in Q1, 2018 Global Aerospace & Defense Research Team at Frost & Sullivan March 2018

2 Contents Section Slide Number Executive Summary 5 Executive Summary 6 Definitions and Segmentations 7 Small Satellites Definition and Forecast Scenarios 8 Segmentation of Small-satellite Users and Mass Classes 9 Small-satellite and Launch Capacity Forecasts 10 Small-satellite Launch Demand Forecast by Scenarios, User Segments and Mass Classes (Number of Satellites) Small-satellite Launch Demand Forecast Total 12 Low- and Mid-Scenario Small-satellite Launch Forecast by User Segment 13 High-Scenario Small-satellite Launch Forecast by User Segment 14 Low- and Mid-Scenario Small-satellite Launch Forecast By Mass Class (kg) 15 High-Scenario Small-satellite Launch Forecast By Mass Class (kg) 16 Payload Mass Forecast by Scenarios, User Segments and Mass Classes 17 Small-satellite Payload Mass Launch Demand Forecast Total 18 Low- and Mid-Scenario Small-satellite Payload Mass Forecast By User Segment 19 High-Scenario Small-satellite Payload Mass Launch Forecast By User Segment

3 Contents (continued) Section Slide Number Low- and Mid-Scenario Small-satellite Launch Payload Mass Forecast By Mass Class (kg) 21 High-Scenario Small-satellite Launch Payload Mass Forecast By Mass Class (kg) 22 Launch Revenue Forecast based on Launch Demand by Scenarios, User Segments and Mass Classes Small-satellite Launch Demand Revenue Forecast Total 24 Low- and Mid-Scenario Small-satellite Launch Revenue Forecast By User Segment 25 High-Scenario Small-satellite Revenue Forecast By User Segment 26 Low- and Mid-Scenario Small-satellite Revenue Forecast By Mass Class (kg) 27 High-Scenario Small-satellite Revenue Forecast By Mass Class (kg) 28 Launch Capacity Forecast, Rideshare and Dedicated 29 Launch Capacity Forecast Assumptions 30 State of Small-satellite Market Launch Capacity Supply Forecast 31 Small-satellite Launch Demand Versus Launch Capacity Supply 32 Small-satellite Launch Demand versus Capacity Supply 33 Key Small-satellite Events and Developments in Q Key Small-satellite Launches in Q Key Small-satellite Industry Developments Q

4 Contents (continued) Section Slide Number Key Launch Service Industry Developments Q Conclusions 38 Conclusion 39 Legal Disclaimer 40 Appendix 41 List of Exhibits 42 The Frost & Sullivan Story 46 4

5 Executive Summary Return to contents 5

6 Key Findings Frost & Sullivan forecasts a launch demand for 11,631 small satellites, in the period small-satellite commercial operators will generate more than 90% of the launch demand, for their constellation installation and replacement missions, during the forecast period. Small satellites in the mass segments 0 to 15 Kg and 150 to 500 Kg will cumulatively account for 65% of the small-satellite launch demand, in the high scenario, over The total payload mass to be launched for the high scenario, in the period, is 2,473 tonnes. The projected revenue, based on the high scenario small-satellite launch demand, in the period is $119 billion. The total projected launch capacity supply, including the success of multiple dedicated planned launch services, for the period is 11,640 small satellites. Source: Frost & Sullivan 6

7 Small Satellites Definition and Forecast Scenarios Definition: Satellites with a mass less than 500 Kg are called small satellites; these satellites alone are considered for this study. The forecast scenarios are defined below: Forecast Scenarios Low Scenario Mid Scenario High Scenario Frost & Sullivan Scenario Forecast Scenarios Definitions: Low Scenario: Includes small satellites from operators who have announced constellations and have a launch history. Mid Scenario: Includes low scenario + small satellites from operators who haven t announced constellations but have a launch history. High Scenario: Includes mid scenario + small satellites from operators who have announced constellations but have no launch history. Frost & Sullivan Scenario: Covers the low and mid scenarios completely while taking up parts of the high scenario progressively, such that, over the forecast period, the probability of success of significantly large commercial operations announced (but not launched yet) is taken into account. Note: Frost & Sullivan scenario is only computed for the number of satellite launch demand forecast. The study does not include Frost & Sullivan Scenario computation for mass class and user segment-wise forecast. Source: Frost & Sullivan 8

8 Segmentation of Small-satellite Users and Mass Classes User Segments: Small-satellite users / operators are segmented as follows. User Segments Commercial Civil Government Military University Non-profit Organization Non-profit Consortium Mass Classes: Small satellites are segmented in the following mass classes. Mass Class (Kg) 0 to 15 Kg to 75 Kg to 150 Kg to 500 Kg Source: Frost & Sullivan 9

9 Small-satellite and Launch Capacity Forecasts Forecast: This report provides the following forecasts on small-satellite launches over the period Forecast Number of Satellites Payload Mass Revenue Launch Capacity Launch Capacity Forecast: Launch capacities are forecast for the following segments. Launch Capacity Rideshare Services (small satellites as secondary payload) Dedicated Services (no primary payload of mass >500 kg) Source: Frost & Sullivan 10

10 Conclusion Small satellites have transitioned from being a technology demonstrator to an operational platform. The major small-satellite launch demand will be generated from the new installation and replacement missions of commercial operators planned constellations. More than 30 commercial operators with planned constellations have made progress in the development of their small satellites to provide low-cost downstream solutions. The existing rideshare launch capacity will not be adequate to meet the future small satellite launch requirements. Multiple existing players are analyzing the feasibility of the small-satellite spaceport business model to provide dedicated launch services to small satellite operators. Multiple existing and new players are developing their dedicated small satellite launch vehicles to address the growing launch requirements of small satellites. Companies are focusing on the development of de-orbit systems to address the increasing debris risks. Source: Frost & Sullivan 39