MILLICOM INTERNATIONAL CELLULAR S.A. Acquisition of Amnet. Investor and Analyst Conference Call October

Transcription

1 MILLICOM INTERNATIONAL CELLULAR S.A. Acquisition of Amnet Investor and Analyst Conference Call October

2 Changing Customer Aspirations in Central America - Customers seek access to content through an open platform TOMORROW 7. Access to content by open platform with mix of 3G + Amnet + IP networks TODAY 1. High mobile voice penetration across Central America 6. Broadband gives voice alternatives in home with VoIP + WiFi alongside Internet access + TV Changing Customer Aspirations 2. Increasing use of VAS builds customer appetite for broadband applications 5. Fixed broadband + 3G = Total Solution 4. Fixed broadband complements 3G bringing high speeds and quality 3. 3G mobile broadband demanded by high ARPU customers a partial solution 2

3 Millicom Latin America A Growth Strategy In early 2007 Management agreed operational objectives for Latin America: To continue to focus on 3As strategy to grow market share of mobile pre-paid voice and VAS services until markets fully penetrated To develop Broadband as it enhances revenues and helps reduce churn Mobile Broadband + Fixed Broadband Are Complementary Services Creating an open platform for customers to choose applications Action Plan Launch of 3G mobile broadband across region Buy or build fixed broadband in Central America Build out Wimax broadband as alternative solution 3

4 Rationale for Amnet acquisition Amnet Provides High Value Mobile Customers with Complementary Broadband Services in the Home Need to satisfy Customer led demand for Broadband services in Central America Millicom s success has been based on providing customers what they desire at affordable prices One-Off opportunity to develop Broadband The time is right for Broadband in Central America Cable offers cost effective/high performance broadband platform that is complementary to mobile broadband Low current penetration levels for high speed internet broadband but latent demand for service Opportunity to acquire leading market position in under-penetrated consumer segments Amnet a unique business, no other sizable independent cable operator in Central America Amnet already leading internet broadband access provider in El Salvador and Honduras Amnet Pay TV services will help fund broadband delivery costs Enhances Millicom s position relative to key competitors in the home Meets customer demand for bundled services within Tigo offering Strengthens relationship with high ARPU customers + reduces churn Brings Millicom into the household for calling to Wi-Fi and VOIP over fixed network 4

5 Pyramid Research Identifies Broadband as Fastest Growing Segment of Market - fixed broadband leads the way with CAGR forecast of +24% ACCESS LINES, BY TYPE, CENTRAL AMERICA SERVICE REVENUES, BY TYPE, CENTRAL AMERICA $9 60 $8 SUBSCRIPTIONS (MILLIONS) REVENUES (US$bn) $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 0 $0 2005A 2006A 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E CAGR Fixed BB Connections Mobile Connections Fixed Line Connections Source: Pyramid Research 24% 6% 1% CAGR Mobile data 18.3% Mobile voice 5.0% Fixed Broadband 22.2% VoIP 83.8% PSTN -2.9% 5

6 The Amnet Opportunity Business overview Amnet founded in 1997 MIC footprint Owned by Michael Kazma and private investors Guatemala Amnet is leading Pay-TV service provider in Corporate Services Central America Leading provider of cable and broadband El Salvador internet services in El Salvador, Costa Cable subs: 169,738 (80%)* Rica and Honduras Tel. subs: 17,081 Offers fixed telephony services in El BB Internet subs: 24,174 (37%)* Salvador and Honduras Corporate Provides corporate data services in all Services five Central American countries Honduras Amnet Network Cable subs: 11,426 km co-axial network 44,917 (21%)* Tel. subs: 1,695 4,870 fibre optic network BB Internet subs: 19,868 (28%)* Total homes passed: 1.1 million (El Salvador, Corporate Costa Rica and Honduras) Services 64% two-way network Subscriber numbers as at 30 June 2008 Source: Amnet (August 2008) Amnet footprint and subscribers New footprint Nicaragua Corporate Services Costa Rica Cable subs: 138,477 (40%)* BB Internet subs: 39,177 (21%)* Corporate Services * Market share based on subscribers as at 31 December

7 Amnet Opportunity (continued) Financial performance FYE US$ Income statement 6mths 30/6/2008 Revenue 80, , ,875 79,617 Adjusted EBITDA* 34,807 48,592 65,381 36,307 EBITDA margin 43.3% 40.1% 45.8% 45.6% PBT -6,549 13,575 27,357 18,046 Tax -4,898-5,395-8,132-4,758 PAT -11,447 8,180 19,225 13,288 Balance sheet Total assets 127, , , ,599 Net debt 69,162 59,296 47,431 40,305 Net assets -10,779 26,852 38,512 49,324 GROWTH POTENTIAL Amnet has grown rapidly in last 3 years 33% CAGR growth in revenue 37% CAGR growth in EBITDA Source: Amnet accounts ; Amnet management accounts 6 months to 30 June 2008 Note: *EBITDA is adjusted by adding back install activation costs to align the accounting policy with peers CAPITAL EXPENDITURE Amnet network already extensive Capital expenditure in 2007 equivalent to US$ 17.3m, excluding installation costs (12% of sales) MIC budgeting for capex of approx. 15% of sales 7

8 Amnet s fastest growing segment is Broadband +23% Revenues by Service Service 1SEM07 1SEM08 % of Change Cable TV 39,736 44, % Broadband (Internet & Data) 20,023 24, % Telephony 3,225 3, % Advertising 2,404 3, % Other 3,169 3, % TOTAL 68,557 79, % Revenues Contribution 100% 50% 0% 1SEM07 1SEM08 Cable TV Internet & Data Telephony Advertising Other 8

9 The Opportunity Amnet Internet Broadband penetration much lower than Cable TV so opportunity to expand penetration Tigo marketing machine will sell internet + mobile services to cable customers as today less than 1/4 of cable customers use broadband services Cable TV cash flows pay for broadband expansion TOTAL Q2 07 Q2 08 Total Homes Passed (HP) 1,046,820 1,102,046 Cable TV Subs (% HP) 34.5% 35.9% Cable TV Subs (% 2 way HP) 49.8% 47.6% Broadband Subs (% 2 way HP) 9.3% 12.1% 9

10 Homes Passed on Amnet network Quantity of HPs HPs - 1 Way & 2 Way 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , ,015, ,259 1,119,773 1,093, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,157 66, YTD 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% El Salvador Costa Rica Honduras Total Note: Adjusted El Salvador subscribers in Q for HPs % One Way % Two Way Aug-07 Aug-08 % Two Way 55% 64% % One Way 45% 36% 10

11 Amnet Capital Expenditures Different Model from the US / Europe Relatively low capex as cables taken overhead on poles Overhead solution means no expense of digging up streets etc. and less than 25% of cost 2007 Capex / Sales ratio 12% Less complicated cabling municipal permits 11

12 Amnet s Fiber Optic Network + Potential synergies with Tigo s IP network Amnet Total Number of Kms Amnet Kms added per Month 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 4,128 4,156 4,212 4,272 4,327 4,391 4,463 4,520 4,590 4,656 4,762 4,801 4, ,800 3, ,400 3, , August 08 July 08 June 08 May 08 April 08 March 08 February 08 January 08 December 07 November 07 October 07 September 07 August 07 August 08 July 08 June 08 May 08 April 08 March 08 February 08 January 08 December 07 November 07 October 07 September 07 August 07 Tigo s existing and substantial IP network across Central America provides potential synergies ion terms of network and capex savings Navega and Tigo s fibre network 9,500km 12

13 Upgrading of Amnet Network Coax Capacity (Kms) 2007/8 August 2007 August Mhz 1Way 19% 450 Mhz 1Way 13% 550 Mhz 1 Way 13% 750 Mhz 2Way 51% 870 Mhz 2Way 4% 750 Mhz 1 Way 10% 550 Mhz 1 Way 16% 750 Mhz 2Way 57% 750 Mhz 1 Way 10% 870 Mhz 2Way 7% Aug-07 % Aug-07 Aug-08 % Aug-08 Difference % of Change One Way 4,657 45% 4,114 36% (543) -11.7% Two Way 5,691 55% 7,313 64% 1, % Total 10,348 11,426 1, % 13

14 Amnet Key Data * ARPU is calculated without Corporate Data and Advertising Revenues 14

15 Amnet The Brand - Amnet is well regarded in Costa Rica, El Salvador and Honduras as the leading Pay-TV service and broadband internet access provider - Tigo s brand machine is a prefect platform to strengthen brand awareness across Central America 15

16 Amnet buying in content off the shelf 16

17 Transaction details Enterprise valuation (EV): US$ 510 million Net of Debt Price equates to 7.0x EV/EBITDA multiple on an Adjusted EBITDA on pro-forma* basis for 2008 Amnet expenses immediately the CPE & Installation costs which have been added back to get to an Amnet Adjusted EBITDA. Transaction funding: US$ 200 million bank funding 2007A US$ 310 million MIC equity funding 2008 Pro Forma EBITDA CPE & Installation costs Other costs Adjusted EBITDA * Amnet pro-forma figures are calculated on annualised H results 17

18 Broadband transactions Value per subscriber - Amnet EV/SUBS at $1,457 below average of comparables Comparability Date Target Country Acquiror Subscribers Deal Value (US$m) EV/SUBS of transaction Dec-06 Avantel Mexico Axtel 750, Dec-06 Vivax Brazil Net Servicios 312, ,830 Oct-07 TVA Cable Brazil Telefonica 300,000 1, ,523 May-07 Islanet Puerto Rico Telefonica 200, ,685 Nov-08 Acotel Mexico Megacable 190, ,347 Oct-07 Superview Colombia Telmex 150, Nov-08 TCO Mexico Megacable 72, ,056 Nov-06 TVI Monterrey Mexico Televisa 64, ,078 Aug-08 Imatel Mexico Megacable 48, Aug-07 Zap TV Chile Telmex 40, Jul-08 IRA Mexico Megacable 39,000 (Bottom quartile) Oct-06 Ertacht Argentina Telmex 6, ,750 Jul-08 Tlalnepantia Mexico Megacable 6,000 (Top quartile) Implied Amnet Domus El Salvador Millicom 350, , ,457 1,394 Low 756 Average 1,628 Median 1,056 High 2,089 Avg for >50,000 subs 1,807 Source: Thomson Financial, Merger Markets, JP Morgan Latin America Equity research 18

19 Summary of financials for Amnet business Amnet fulfills full criteria as a Millicom investment - high growth and strong margins translating into strong cashflow Amnet is a fast growing business % CAGR revenue growth % CAGR EBITDA growth Amnet EBITDA margin = 46% Amnet is relatively small in comparison to MIC s overall Central American business being: Less than 5% of Millicom group revenue and EBITDA Less than 10% of Central American revenue and EBITDA Amnet net profit (adjusted to MIC leverage ratio) will be accretive to MIC net profit margin Amnet Capex/Sales ratio 12% ($17.3m in 2007, excluding installation costs) 19

20 APPENDICES 20

21 Amnet is increasing market share in high speed residential internet High Speed Internet Subscribers in Central America 100% 75K Convergence 74K Cabletica 70K Cableonda 53K Others 40K Others 15K Total = 327K Others 80 AMX AMX Amnet Cable& Wireless Integra Cablesula Cablecolor AMX Others 20 ICE Amnet Amnet Estesa 0 GUA CR PAN ES Source: Amnet (Q2 2008) HON NIC 21

22 Amnet is increasing market share in Cable TV Central American Cable Companies(Subscribers) 100% 295K 267K 234K 192K 140K 135K Total = 1,263K Others Others Others 80 Others Others Others 60 Cabletica Intercentro Villanueva Cablecolor 40 Convergence Amnet Cablesula Estesa 20 Comtech(AMX) Amnet Mayavisión Cableonda Telecom Amnet 0 GUA CR ES HON PAN NIC Source: Amnet (Q2 2008) 22

23 Summary of Business Synergies Building on Strengths of Existing business Synergies between Amnet and Tigo Marketing Tigo has been successful in Central America in taking market share from competitors Tigo has marketing expertise, experience, distribution and resource of Tigo People to draw on Technical Tigo has 9,500 km of fibre network through Navega and own fibre Amnet has 4,870 km of network Tigo has resource of technical Tigo People Regulatory Tigo has established relationships with Regulators in El Salvador, Honduras and Guatamala Political Tigo has established relationships with government and knowledge of legal operating framework Tigo is recognised as the value brand and a champion of the consumer in terms of price and access 23

24 This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements with respect to Millicom s expectations and plans, strategy, management s objectives, future performance, costs, revenues, earnings and other trend information. It is important to note that Millicom s actual results in the future could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements depending on various important factors. Please refer to the documents that Millicom has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, including Millicom s most recent annual report on Form 20-F, for a discussion of certain of these factors. All forward-looking statements in this presentation are based on information available to Millicom on the date hereof. All written or oral forward-looking statements attributable to Millicom International Cellular S.A., any Millicom International Cellular S.A. employees or representatives acting on Millicom s behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the factors referred to above. Millicom does not intend to update these forward-looking statements. MILLICOM INTERNATIONAL CELLULAR 24