Latin America Deep Dive. Erasmo Rojas Director America Latina y El Caribe 4G Americas

Transcription

1 Latin America Deep Dive Erasmo Rojas Director America Latina y El Caribe 4G Americas May, 2013

2 Millions of Subscriptions Latin America & Caribbean Wireless Technology Evolution GSM Analogue CDMA iden TDMA HSPA/HSPA % 96% 106 % % % % 16% 19% 23% 31% 43% 54% 0 Dec 00 Dec 01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec-12 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+ 4Q 2012

3 Subscriptions (Millions) Wireless Technology Growth Latin America 700 Subscriptions By Technology % 532 M 95% 603 M 96% 650 M 3GPP CDMA iden % 3% 2% Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+, December 2012 Estimates

4 Top Operators in Latin America at YE 2012 Total Subscriptions: 680 million 7% 4% 2% 13% 176 Million 26% 13% 92 Million 239 Million 35% Economies of scale are key in Latin America; low ARPU and high prepaid market Source: Operator quarterly reports, Informa Telecom & Media, February 2013

5 Chile Brazil Argentina Ecuador Venezuela Mexico Colombia Guatemala Peru Bolivia Top 10 Wireless Data Markets in Latin America by 4Q 2012 Average Latin America penetration: 93% voice and 19% data % Voice Penetration 113% 102% 118% 97% 91% 72% 92% 95% 93% 96% 10% 13% 13% 9% 9% 5% 4% % Data 35% 32% 26% 26 M 266 M 59 M 16 M 31 M 96 M 48 M 16 M 29 M 10 M Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Global Wireless Matrix 3Q2012, January 2013 Subscriptions (Millions)

6 Mobile Broadband Forecast in Latin America (HSPA-LTE) LTE December 2012 LTE 0% LTE 7% iden, CDMA 4% HSPA 17% GSM 79% iden, CDMA 1% GSM 31% HSPA & HSPA+ 61% December 2017 December 2012 December 2017 Total Subscriptions 680 Million 858 Million Mobile Broadband 113 Million (17%) 581 Million (68%) Source: Informa Telecoms & Media WCIS+ Subscription Forecast, March 2013

7 HSPA+ in Latin America & Caribbean 131 Million HSPA/HSPA+ estimated subscriptions HSPA/HSPA+ as of 1Q Mexico Belize Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama 42 Mbps Dual Carrier Chile Dominican Republic Paraguay Puerto Rico 96 commercial HSPA networks in 42 countries 65 commercial HSPA+ networks in 33 countries 2 Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Paraguay Peru Uruguay 2 As of Antigua & Barbuda Aruba Bahamas Barbados Bermuda British Virgin Islands Cayman Islands Dominican Republic French West Indies Jamaica Netherlands Antilles Puerto Rico St Kitts & Nevis Trinidad & Tobago Turks & Caicos Source: Public Announcements, Regulatory Bodies 1 Informa Telecoms & Media, Mar 2013 Estimates

8 20 LTE Networks in Latin America & the Caribbean LTE 700 MHz Antigua & Barbuda Digicel * Bolivia Puerto Rico 1700/2100 MHz Mexico Paraguay Puerto Rico Uruguay Entel Claro Open Mobile Movistar Telcel VOX AT&T Antel 850 & 1900 MHz Puerto Rico Sprint 1800 MHz Dominican Republic 1900 MHz Dominican Republic Paraguay MHz Orange Dominicana Tricom Personal Claro Sky Telecom* Brazil Oi TIM On* Vivo Data as of May 10, 2013 Colombia UNE * Indicates TDD networks All remaining networks are FDD

9 Typical data revenues by Q % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Data contribution to service revenues. Latin America average of 27% and 43% in North America Voice 41% Data 35% 35% 30% 25% 22% 21% 20% Sources: Informa Telecoms & Media, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Q Average ARPU of US $ 12 by Q4 2012

10 Smartphone penetration Q USA smartphone penetration is 57% by February 2013 (comscore, Apr 2013) Latin America 14% Venezuela 20% Chile 18% Argentina 17% Brazil 16% Mexico 15% Peru 9% Colombia 8% Source: Bank of America / Merrill Lynch, Inside Telecom, February 2013

11 Spectrum and Mobile Broadband Adoption Year End % Average MBB penetration in Latin America Available market spectrum MBB Penetration Brazil 524 MHz 32% Mexico 210 MHz 10% Ecuador 110 MHz 13% Colombia Peru 215 MHz 170 MHz 9% 5% Chile 380 MHz 35% Source: Regulatory announcements, Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+, 2012

12 LTE Growth Forecast In Latin America & Caribbean 55 Million Subscriptions 2 Million 7 Million 16 Million 30 Million Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+ Forecast, February 2013

13 Recent Spectrum Allocations and Auctions 700 MHz in Latin America and the Caribbean Antigua & Barbuda Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Puerto Rico 450 MHz Brazil 1.7 / 2.1 GHz (AWS) Argentina Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Peru Puerto Rico Uruguay 1.8 GHz Dominican Republic Venezuela 2.3 GHz Under consideration in some countries 2.6 GHz Brazil Chile Colombia Source: Public Announcements, Regulatory Bodies

14 Frequency Band Status February 2013 Low Bands 450 MHz Brazil 14 MHz auctioned June 2012 for rural services 700 MHz Chile Brazil Ecuador Colombia Mexico Bolivia Antigua & Barbuda Puerto Rico 90 MHz to be auctioned mid Will use APT option To be auctioned early 2014 after a public inquiry 30 MHz directed allocated to state operator. Will use APT option 90 MHz to be auctioned in Will use APT option Adopted APT option. No auction date yet LTE in service using USA option LTE in service (TDD) using USA option 4 LTE networks in service using USA option

15 Frequency Band Status February 2013 High Bands 1.7/2.1 GHz (AWS) Chile 90 MHz auctioned in 2009 to 2 new players Colombia 90 MHz to be auctioned in 2013 Ecuador 40 MHz directed allocated to state operator Peru 80 MHz to be auctioned in 2013 Mexico 60 MHz auctioned in 2010 Uruguay 40 MHz directed allocated to state operator. 50 MHz to be auctioned in 2013 Argentina 90 MHz to be auctioned in 2013 Uruguay LTE in service end 2011 Mexico LTE in service end GHz 2.6 GHz Dominican Republic LTE in service mid 2012 Venezuela Auctioned in 2012 Colombia 50 MHz auctioned in MHz to be auctioned in 2013 Brazil 140 MHz FDD + 35 MHZ TDD auctioned in 2012 Chile 120 MHz FDD auctioned in 2012 Colombia LTE in service mid 2012 Brazil LTE TDD in service end 2011 and LTE FDD in service end 2012

16 Issues and Opportunities in Latin America & Caribbean Increasing use of Mobile Broadband for society solutions (i.e. healthcare, transportation, education) Spectrum cap policies still in place (new approach of caps per band) Increasingly restrictive wireless regulations in the region

17 Issues and Opportunities in Latin America & Caribbean Government initiatives and involvement in creating national broadband plans Average data contribution (VAS) to ARPU: 28% Vs. 41% in North America 17% HSPA/HSPA+ penetration : 113 million subscriptions Mobile Broadband penetration increasing and providing Internet access for the masses

18 Thank you!