40G Ethernet Market Potential
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- Ilene Peters
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1 40G Ethernet Market Potential IEEE HSSG Interim Meeting April 2007 Presenters: Robert Hays, Intel Howard Frasier, Broadcom
2 Market Trends Affecting Server Networking Opportunity: Server I/O bandwidth generators Moore s Law processing improvements Data center virtualization Networked storage Clustered servers Internet applications (e.g. IPTV, VoIP, Web2.0, Finance) Constraints: Purchase criteria for x86 servers Performance (MIPS) Cost (CapEx) Power (Watts) Density (m 2 ) Complexity (OpEx) 2
3 Vision: A Single, Flexible Ethernet Server I/O Separate LAN & SAN Fabrics (Today) Ethernet LAN & SAN Fabric (Tomorrow) SAN LAN SAN LAN FC Switch Ethernet Switch Ethernet Switch HBA NIC NIC Server Server Goal: Reduce the cost, size, power, and complexity of servers by eliminating the need for multiple I/O connections & fabrics 3
4 Challenges in Realizing Our Vision Today server I/O is fragmented GbE performance doesn t meet current server I/O requirements 10GbE is still too expensive 2/4G Fibre Channel & 10G Infiniband are being deployed to meet the growing I/O demands for storage & HPC clusters In 2-4 Years, convergence on 10GbE looks promising 10GBASE-T availability will drive costs down 10GbE will offer a compelling value-proposition for LAN, SAN, & HPC cluster connections What about 7-10yrs? Is the Ethernet value-prop sustainable? 10GbE will no longer meet the performance requirements 100GbE may be too expensive for wide spread deployment The market could turn once again to alternative I/O solutions to fill the gap (e.g. 40G Infiniband, shared PCI-Express) 4
5 x86 Server Volume Estimate ( ) 35,000,000 Worldwide x86 Server Forecast 30,000,000 x86 Server Units 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 TODAY 5,000, Source: IDC Server Forecast, Sept 2006; 10% CAGR NOTE: This x86 Server TAM scenario will be used as a baseline to analyze the potential Ethernet server connection market opportunity. 5
6 x86 Server Ethernet Connection Speeds with 100GbE Only x86 Server Forecast by Ethernet Connection Type (100G Only) 35,000,000 30,000,000 x86 Server Units 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 TODAY 5,000, Source: Intel & Broadcom, April 2007 FE GbE 10GbE 100GbE 10 year transition 10 year transition Base Server Connection: GbE 10GbE 6
7 x86 Server Ethernet Connection Speeds with 40GbE & 100GbE x86 Server Forecast by Ethernet Connection Type (40G & 100G) 35,000,000 30,000,000 x86 Server Units 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 TODAY 5,000, Source: Intel & Broadcom, April 2007 FE GbE 10GbE 40GbE 100GbE 10 year transition 5 years 5 years Base Server Connection: GbE 10GbE 40GbE 7
8 Market Potential for 40GbE Servers & Switches Scenario 1: 40GbE & 100GbE TOTAL 40GbE Server Connections (Kports) ,008 2,218 12,201 31,317 47,736 51,427 47,637 40GbE Switch Downlinks (Kports) ,008 2,218 12,201 31,317 47,736 51,427 47,637 40GbE TOTAL (Kports) ,017 4,437 24,403 62,634 95, ,854 95, , GbE Switch Uplinks (Kports) ,017 2,610 3,978 4,286 3, GbE Server Connections (Kports) ,476 2,707 11, GbE Server Downlinks (Kports) ,476 2,707 11, GbE TOTAL (Kports) ,261 3,505 6,931 9,699 27,789 49,570 Scenario 2: 100GbE Only TOTAL 100GbE Server Connections (Kports) ,215 4,060 17, GbE Server Downlinks (Kports) ,215 4,060 17, GbE TOTAL (Kports) ,342 4,429 8,120 35,728 50,019 Source: Intel & Broadcom, April 2007 >350 Million port opportunity for 40GbE Assumptions: 2 connections/server, 1:1 server connections to switch downlink ports, 12:1 switch downlinks to uplinks 40GbE will drive earlier demand for 100GbE uplinks Without 40GbE, 40G IB/FC/PCI-E may displace 10GbE, reducing the long-term 100GbE opportunity in the data center 8
9 Summary >350M port market potential for 40GbE connections 1 st server NICs ~2010, LOM transition ~ GbE increases the demand & TTM for 100GbE aggregation 100GbE server deployment will be 4-5 years behind 40GbE 1 st server NICs ~2015, LOM transition > X/10yr steps don t keep pace with server I/O needs Cost/performance gaps leave room for alternative technologies to get established and threaten Ethernet as the I/O fabric of choice 40GbE closes the gap between 10G & 100G Ethernet and keeps the Ethernet convergence momentum going 9
10 Request: Modify the HSSG Objectives to Support full-duplex operation only Preserve the 802.3/Ethernet frame format at the MAC Client service interface Preserve minimum and maximum FrameSize of current Std Support a BER better than or equal to 10E-12 at the MAC/PLS service interface Support a speed of 100Gb/s at the MAC/PLS interface Provide a family of physical layer specifications for 100Gb/s operation: Support at least TBD meters on Cu cable Support at least 100 meters on OM3 MMF Support at least 10km on SMF Support a speed of 40Gb/s at the MAC/PLS interface Provide a family of physical layer specifications for 40Gb/s operation: Support at least TBD meters on Cu cable Support at least 100 meters on OM3 MMF 10
11 Supporters of a 40GbE Objective Lars Thon (Aeluros) Jugnu Ojha (Avago) Piers Dawe (Avago) Yakov Belopolsky (Bel Stewart Connector) Vikram Mehta (Blade Network Technologies) Ali Ghiasi (Broadcom) Howard Frazier (Broadcom) Pat Thaler (Broadcom) Bob Snively (Brocade) Ori Aruj (Dune Networks) Hossein Hashemi (Emulex) Bob Thornton (Fujitsu) Uri Cummings (Fulcrum Microsys.) Anthony Befi (IBM) Ilango Ganga (Intel) Manoj Wadekar (Intel) Shelto Van Doorn (Intel) Xavier Clairardin (Kotura) Arlon Martin (Kotura) Alan Flatman (LAN Techn.) Hansen Henning (Leoni) Jim Perrott (Luxtera) Marek Tlalka (Luxtera) Nafea Bshara (Marvell) Chris DiMinico (MC Communic.) Michael Kagan (Mellanox) Dan Tuchler (Mellanox) Ed Cady (Meritec) Gourgen Oganessyan (Molex) Jim McGrath (Molex) David Martin (Nortel Networks) Garth Gibson (Panasas) Rob Davis (Qlogic) Bruce Tolley (Solarflare) George Zimmerman (Solarflare) Andy Bechtolsheim (Sun) Shimon Muller (Sun) Sanjay Kasturia (Teranetics) Dean Vermeersch (Tyco) Mike Fogg (Tyco) Frank Chang (Vitesse) Tom Palkert (Xilinx) 11
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