NATO SfP FINAL REPORT

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2 NATO SfP FINAL REPORT

3 RESEARCH SPONSORED BY NATO Science for Peace Programme

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5 Предпечат: People Help, Ltd. Печат: АРТГРАФ ISBN

6 TABLE OF CONTENTS Project Directors, Co-Directors and End-users 8 List of Abbreviations 10 Summary 13 A. INTRODUCTION 15 B. SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT Scientific Organisation Training Models/ knowledge transfer Scientific Infrastructure End-users International Reputation 22 C. REALIZATION OF THE PROJECT IPP-BAS and IMI-BAS (hosting COA and JTSAC) DSC (hosting ASTRA Lab) 25 D. SCIENTIFIC RESULTS SCIENTIFIC INFRASTRUCTURE (JTSAC) Concept to use JTSAC in Security Sector Review and Change Management Process Concept to use JTSAC as instrument for CAX Architectural Approach to Concept Development and Scenario Preparation Conceptual Model for horizontal and vertical integration of Security Sector C4 System Scenario modelling and simulation for risk assessment at strategic level Decision Support Package for Emergency Management Package for low-cost Computer Assisted Exercises (CAX) Architecture for telecomms network, mobile C2 modules and sensor integration for CAX environment Model and tools for project management Projects of JTSAC 48 5

7 2. SCIENTIFIC INFRASTRUCTURE (ASTRA) Capabilities-Based Force Planning Costing Organizational transformation Gaming in support of Senior Decision Makers Decision Support to Personnel Management Acquisition Project Management Security and Defence Research & Technology Management Projects of ASTRA MOST IMPORTANT PROJECTS WITHIN SfP EU TACOM SEE Defence Requirements Review (DRR) 60 E. IMPLEMENTATION OF RESULTS Capacity Scientific Acceptance Utilization of end-results Expectations for the future 69 F. CONCLUSIONS 71 G. ANNEXES 73 Annex 1A. List of collaborators 73 Annex 1B. Obtained advanced degree through cooperation with SfP project 75 Annex 2A: List of publications resulting from the project 77 Annex 2B: List of publications in reference to the project 83 Annex 2C: List of presentations resulting from the project: 85 Annex 2D: List of technical reports of projects 90 Annex 3: Complete Inventory Record 92 Annex 4: Criteria of success 96 List of Figures Figure 1: Organization of the SfP project 23 Figure 2: JTSAC architecture disposition in IPP-BAS 28 Figure 3: Structure and relations of the JTSAC scientific results 29 Figure 4: Use of JTSAC in Security Sector Review and Change Management Process 30 6

8 Figure 5: Tasking organizations for OA in transformation process 31 Figure 6: Integrated operations and Integrated Security Sector 32 Figure 7: Model of the Integrated Security Sector around MoD 33 Figure 8: Process of preparing, executing, and analysing CAX within the overall training of administrations 33 Figure 9: Architecture of the CAX test-bed environment 34 Figure 10: Horizontal integration in three main levels of vertical integration of integrated response system 37 Figure 11: Architecture of the package for low-cost CAX 43 Figure 12: Model for the management process of projects 47 Figure 13: Example of the use of Balanced Scorecards 48 Figure 14: Defence Requirements Planning Loop 62 Figure 15: Relation of COA with other institutions in the security sector 70 Figure 16: Meeting of project directors in Sofia, June 2005 (from right to left): Mr. Klaus Niemeyer (NPD), Dr. Velizar Shalamanov (PPD), Mr. Michel Rademaker, Dr. Tzvetomir Tzachev, and Dr. Todor Tagarev 97 Figure 17: Commodore N. Nikolov (then Chief of J5, currently Defence Advisor to the President) and Dr. T. Tagarev co-chair a panel during the conference Concept Development and Experimentation for Acquiring Operational Capabilities, 18 October Col. G. Grudev, Secretary of the MOD R&D program, to the left 97 Figure 18: The crises response team under the leadership of Minister of State Policy for Disasters and Accidents Mrs. Emel Etem at the Computer Assisted Exercise EU TACOM SEE Figure 19: The panel of the UMSSOFT plenary session during the presentation of HE Leonid Polyakov, First Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine 98 Figure 20: Panelists at the closing session of UMSSOFT 2007 (from ledt to right): Ambasador Valeri Ratchev, Dr. Shalamanov, Brian Witherden (NC3A), Prof. Stefan Hadjitodorov (CNSDR-BAS), Klaus Niemeyer, Jan Erik Torp (FFI-Norway, crrently SAS Panel Chair), and Dr. Tagarev 99 Figure 21: Mrs. Sonya Yankulova, Deputy Minister of Defence, Dr. Roger Forder, Dstl-UK and Chairman of the SAS Panel, Bulgarian and Canadian analysts during the discussion on defence review methodology 99 Figure 22: The methodology review project team under the leadership of the Deputy Minister of Defence Mrs. Sonya Yankulova and Mr. Klaus Niemeyer, NPD. Col. Stefan Yanev, MOD Director for Defence Policy is to the right. Dr. Zlatogor Minchev is to the left 100 Figure 23: Mr. Han de Nijs, Head, Operational Analysis Branch, ACT, giving a presentation to the Working Session in June

9 Project Directors, Co-Directors and End-users NATO Project Director (NPD) Mr. Klaus Niemeyer, Defence consultant, NOA, Nussbaumweg 9, Ottobrunn, Germany Tel: , Fax: , Partner Project Director (PPD) Dr. Velizar Shalamanov, Senior Researcher, Head of C4I Dept, Institute of Parallel Processing, Sofia , Acad. G. Bonchev Str., bl. 25A Tel: , mobile: , Shalamanov@acad.bg Project Co-Directors from Bulgaria Dr. Todor Tagarev, Associate Professor, Chair, Defence and Force Management Department, G.S. Rakovski Defence and Staff College, 82, Evlogi Georgiev Blvd., Sofia 1504, Bulgaria Tel: , , Fax: , tagarev@bas.bg Dr. Tsvetomir Tsachev, Senior Researcher, Operations Research Department, Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Acad. G. Bonchev Str., Block 8, Sofia 1113, Bulgaria Tel: , Fax: , tsachev@math.bas.bg Project Co-Directors from NATO country (Netherlands) Mr. JGM (Michel) Rademaker, MTL, Senior Policy Analyst & Director Business Development, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, Oude Waalsdorperweg 63, 2509 The Hague, The Netherlands Tel.: , Fax: , michelrademaker@hcss.nl 8

10 END USERS: Ministry of Defence Mr. Simeon Nikolov, Deputy Minister of Defence 1000 Sofia, 3 Djakon Ignatii str., tel: ; fax , snikolov@mod.bg Ministry of the Interior Mr. Tsonko Kirov, Deputy Minister of the Interior 1000 Sofia, 29 6-i septemvri str., tel: , mvr@mvr.bg Ministry of State Policy against Disasters and Accidents, General Directorate National Service Civil Protection Mr. Andrey Ivanov 1000 Sofia, 6 Sveta Nedelya Square, tel: , sacp@cp.government.bg Ministry of Foreign Affairs Mr. Todor Churov, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs 1113 Sofia, 2 Alexander Zhendov str., tel

11 List of Abbreviations ACT ADAMS ASTRA Lab BAS BOA BUN IPP COA C2 C4 C4ISR CAX CDE CoE CM CMEP CMMI CP DARI DCAF DFMD DIB (NATO s) Allied Command Transformation Allied Deployment and Allocation Movement System Analytical Support of Transformation Lab (research laboratory at the G.S.Rakovski Defence and Staff College) Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Basic Ordering Agreement Bulgarian Navy Institute of Parallel Processing Centre of Operational Analysis Command and Control Command, Control, Communications, and Computers Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Computer Assisted exercises Concept Development and Experimentation Centre of Excellence Crisis Management Civil Military Emergency Planning Capability Maturity Model Integration Civil Protection Defence Advanced Research Institute Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces Defence and Force Management Department Defence Institution Building 10

12 DMS DODAF DOORS DSC E&T ET FFI FMM FP 7 JFCN GAMMA HCSS IEMS IMI JDARTS JTSAC M&S MAX MHS MoD MoI MoSPDA NIAG Decision Making Support Department of Defense Architecture Framework Requirements Management for Advanced Systems and Software Development ( G.S. Rakovski ) Defence and Staff College, Sofia, Bulgaria Education and Training Exploratory Team Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Force Matrix Model European Union Seventh Framework Programme (NATO s) Joint Forces Command Naples Global Aggregated Model for Military Assessment The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies Integrated Emergency Management System Institute of Mathematics and Informatics (at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences) Joint DRR Requirements and Analysis Toolset Joint Training, Simulation and Analysis Centre Modelling and Simulation Model Assisted exercises Message Handling System Ministry of Defence Ministry of the Interior Ministry of State Policy for Disasters and Accidents NATO Industrial Advisory Group 11

13 NMSG NOA NSDF OA OR PMWS R&D RI SA SAS SCIP SEE SSR SST TACOM TNO UMSSOFT UNSS USTDA NATO Modelling and Simulation Group (of the NATO Research and Technology Organisation) Niemeyer Operations Analysis National Security and Defence Faculty (at G.S. Rakovski Defence and Staff College) Operational Analysis Operations Research Program Manager s Work Station Research and Development Research Infrastructure System Architect System Analysis and Studies (panel of the NATO Research and Technology Organisation) Scenario Computer Interface Program South-Eastern Europe Security Sector Reform Security Sector Transformation Terrorist Act Consequences Management Exercise Institute for Applied Scientific Research on Defence, Security and Safety (conference on) Using Models and Simulations in Support of Force Transformation University Network for Security Studies United States Trade and Development Agency 12

14 Summary The project Operations Research Support to Force and Operations Planning in the New Security Environment aimed at establishing solid capability in operations analysis, involving young scientists from Bulgarian institutes and universities a capability that is organizationally identifiable, building on state of the art knowledge and experience, with highly valued reputation in providing decision support to national and international security and defence administrations. In the first phase the project team created a Centre for Operations Analysis (COA) at the Bulgarian Academy of Science (BAS) with a cell within the Defence and Staff College (DSC) in Sofia, selected and trained young scientists, identified models for transfer from NATO, acquired computer equipment and networks, and established management mechanisms. In the second phase the team transferred, adapted, and upgraded selected models, created databases and scenarios, and prepared for applications in analyses and exercises. In parallel, in areas where models were not readily available, we developed approaches and tools for analysis of new mission requirements, network enabled capabilities and command and control architectures. The third phase was focused on analysis and solution of problems of highest priority for Bulgaria s security sector organizations and organizations in partner countries, as well as support for relevant exercises. At the end of the project two laboratories are fully functional the COA s Joint Training, Simulation and Analysis Centre (JTSAC) and the Analytical Support for Transformation (ASTRA) Laboratory in DSC. JTSAC provides an environment for analysis and exercises in emergency and crisis management. It is a test-bed for various agencies in planning, conducting, and analysing interagency, international, and civil-military exercises in the area of civil security. JTSAC maintains capabilities for development and analysis of scenarios, command, control, communications and computers systems architectures, joint training and exercises, program management and assessment. ASTRA Lab provides analysis, decision support, and training in capabilities-based force planning, costing, organizational transformation, gaming in support to senior decision makers, decision support to personnel management, acquisition project management, and security and defence research & technology management. 13

15 In the reported period COA finalized ten projects for a number of Bulgarian agencies and international institutions. The two key projects were in support of Bulgaria s Defence Review and the EU Exercise on Terrorist Attacks Consequence Management (TACOM). COA organized two international conferences, participated in four RTO activities. Its scientists published over 37 papers in refereed journals and conference proceedings, as well as five monographic studies in Bulgarian. The list of criteria of success includes eight criteria in three groups COA capacity with focus on young scientists; scientific acceptance in NATO and NATO nations; utilisation of the COA within Bulgaria and NATO. Highest is the weight of achievements to support decision making in Bulgaria s security sector organisations, thus leading to efficient use of resources and a better preparedness of the Bulgaria s security sector to deal with the new security challenges. The overall success is estimated at 85 %, primarily due to difficulties in attracting and retaining young scientists, as well as the limited job openings at NC3A in the reported period. In other areas such as additional projects and publications, the team far exceeded the targets. 14

16 A. INTRODUCTION At the start of the project in 2004, the security sector administration in Bulgaria had very limited access to expertise and tools to support decision making on issues of long-term force planning, operations planning, and acquisition management. The former Institute of the General Staff of the Armed Forces was closed down in A small number of researchers and analysts were transferred to other defence organizations, primarily to the Defence Advanced Research Institute (DARI), which is part of the G.S. Rakovski Defence and Staff College (DSC) in Sofia. Institutes of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (BAS) employed others. The Operations Research (OR) Department in the Institute of Mathematics and Informatics in the BAS was primarily oriented toward theoretical studies and teaching. Some of the legacy software tools for decision support and Computer Assisted Exercises (CAX) packages were also available in DARI, but the level of connection between this institute and the larger civilian operations research community was limited. All that allowed Bulgaria to preserve a limited capacity to support defence decision making, but there were no opportunities to develop new methodologies and tools to address the new challenges to security and the needs of other security sector organizations. However, given the lack of infrastructure and the limited access to security organizations, the small Bulgarian operations analysis (OA) community has not been utilized effectively to address the security challenges of the twenty-first century. Thus, Bulgaria faced considerable challenges in defining its defence requirements as a member of NATO, and later of the EU, developing affordable and interoperable capabilities, promoting inter-agency cooperation, and assuring effective and transparent financial, planning, and resource allocation procedures. At the same time, operations research, modelling, and simulation are an area of active research worldwide with a wide spectrum of applications, including planning, decision support, and conducting exercises. In addition, with the rapid developments in information technology during the past two decades, the methodology of modelling gained an increasingly prominent role in military, economics, social affairs, industry, education and other domains. In particular, NATO and several NATO nations have a long tradition of developing and using models and simulations within OR institutions tasked to support military staff and administration. Among the primary objectives 15

17 are the efficient use of limited resources and the maximisation of force effectiveness. In the past, developments focussed primarily on system level effectiveness, resource optimisation, tactical battle simulations, and logistics. With the ongoing progress of the process of defence transformation and the appearance of new missions for NATO, new developments are required, in particular the modelling of C4ISR, asymmetric conflicts, terrorist activities, net-enabled capabilities, as well as interoperation with other security sector organizations. The benefits that a decision support institution offers to a nation are many. An institution dedicated to modelling, simulation, and other forms of research related to decision support can provide: A single technical focus for decision related matters Broad capabilities to address operational problems and shortfalls Close and continuing relationships with operational organizations Integration of scientific support, planning, and acquisition Increased quality of planning and policy development activities Reduction of acquisition risk through user-driven prototypes Improved integration of prototyping and system implementation An improved technical base to support national activities Cost-effective utilization of scarce national technical resources. Since skills in the field demand rigorous academic and scientific trai ning in physics, mathematics, and information science, the necessary specific expertise and capability in operations analysis, modelling, and simulation needed to be developed and recognized by the Bulgarian government as well as by NATO agencies and defence institutions of NATO nations. Our expectation is that NATO agencies and other NATO nations would also get involved in the planning and operational projects for the decision processes of the Bulgarian security sector. Results will improve effectiveness of force planning, equipment and infrastructure planning, as well as operations planning and training of forces of a well-integrated security sector, providing for a better balance between national capabilities and Bulgaria s contribution to NATO and the European Union. In parallel, the established OR community will improve the basis for transparency, accountability and democratic control over security decisionmaking, allowing for effective use of limited societal resources. The application of state of the art methodology within the decision mak ng process would result in reduced risks of false decisions, improvements of the effectiveness of the security system or savings of the budget. In quantitative terms, a careful and very traditional estimate of 10 % savings of the overall 16

18 budget in Bulgaria for the security sector (approximately two billion BGN per annum) would result in 200 million BGN overall savings of the budget or an equivalent increase of the effectiveness. In relation to the objectives three logical steps or work packages of the project were defined building upon each other. The initial step was the creation and organisation of a Centre for Operations Analysis (COA). This included the selection of young scientists, identification of models for transfer from NC3A, the first acquisition of equipment, creation of management structures and training of the scientists in Operations Analysis and practical analyses approaches. The second step built on the initial creation of the COA and DSC with the actual transfer of the selected models, their adaptation and potential upgrades for specific conditions and applications in Bulgaria, the creation of databases and scenarios, and the planning of real applications in analyses and exercises. In parallel, new approaches were required in areas where models were not readily available, in particular for C2 processes, network-enabled capabilities, and new NATO missions. The third step built on the state of the art methodology developed and/or adapted in the second step and performed actual analyses of problems in the integrated security sector of Bulgaria, the broader region of South-Eastern Europe, and within the NATO context, and also provided support for the relevant exercises. All three steps relate directly to the objectives and pre-established criteria of success. In practice, a continual reiteration of the process was required based on the experience gained. This resulted in a continuous feedback, learning and improving of the methodology and the build-up of high value expertise and continuity. Due to unforeseen obstacles and ongoing work on other projects, the initial planning and logical construction of the work packages required a continuous adaptation of plans and approaches in order to react to real-life problems. This in itself was a matter of gaining experience in real-world environments, and brought valuable results. As a consequence, the development of the COA and DSC was more of an evolutionary process, instead of being conducted in a top-down manner. The pre-established criteria of success allowed for the straightforward quantification of results and provided a formula to assess the project s overall performance. Eight criteria formed three groups in terms of: Capacity of the Centre for Operations Analysis, with focus on trained and creative young scientists in Bulgaria Scientific acceptance in NATO and NATO nations Utilisation of the COA within Bulgaria and NATO. 17

19 The definitions allow for straightforward quantification of project results and a formula to assess the overall performance of the project team. The respective weights of the three groups of measures are 0.25 (25%), 0.25 (25%), and 0.5 (50%). The highest value was attached to achievements that helped support decision making in Bulgaria s security sector organizations, thus leading to more efficient use of resources and improved preparedness of the Bulgaria s security sector to deal with new security challenges. Some of the criteria were met at 100 percent success (or even more in certain cases, due to the number of project contracts by Bulgarian ministries). Other criteria were not met as fully, because of obstacles and the practical development of the project. In particular, the goal of sending young scientists to NATO agencies was not realistic because of the lack of interest among the young scientists and a lack of relevant vacancies. Therefore a rigid calculation of the criteria results in a less than 100% overall success (approx. 85%) if no compensation of criteria is allowed. However, taking into account the number of accomplished projects as a measure for the utilization of the COA, in particular two projects of a very high value (described in detail bellow), and compensating for the less successful criteria, we can state that overall the success of the project exceeds 100 percent. B. SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT The main objective of the project was the establishment of a scientific capability in the area of Operations Analysis in Bulgaria. As far as possible, this capability should be organizationally identifiable and should generate a corporate identity, a basis of state of the art knowledge and experience, and a valued reputation for providing decision support to national and international administrations. The most important of the identified requirements was the need to provide decision support to long-term defence planning, force structuring, and security sector transformation; operations planning (accounting for the potential of network-based operations); and acquisition life cycle management. Other requirements addressed the assessment and adaptation of existing methods in decision support along with the development of new methods and software tools to the operation of the security sector, with a focus on the simulation of command and control processes within joint military/civil ian security organizations that are involved in counterterrorist activities 18

20 and disaster prevention and response. The overall strategy was to adapt existing methods and tools of operations analysis and create novel ones, and then implement them for the purposes of transforming Bulgaria s security sector to deal with the new security challenges of the post-cold War era in a costeffective manner. 1. Scientific Organisation In any nation with high social and technical standards, it is essential to develop and maintain a scientific institution, which enables support of national decision-making based on state of the art methodology and knowledge. We see this project as an ignition for the required steps in the establishment of such an institution. It is common at the beginning of a project such as this to be confronted with the challenge of how to demonstrate the value of the scientific solutions and at the same time to get the support and funding for developing the required capabilities that will allow those solutions to be achieved. Typically, a sponsor who is convinced of the value of such an institution has to provide the necessary initial funding. In the case of the present project, the NATO Science for Peace Program was this initial sponsoring agent. In this context, we can consider the project to have been successful if and only if national high-level decision makers and decision bodies take advantage of the opportunity to make use of advanced decision support based on rational scientific methodology and are prepared to continue the funding of an institution for operations analysis. This institution requires an organizational structure, integration into the national decision structure, a link to industry and science bodies, a continuous adaptation of the newest technologies, and a clear corporate identity. The fundamental principles of such an institution s functioning need to be established based on the experiences of other countries, as well as NATO and the EU. Important issues relate to the following principles: The neutrality principle implies a not-for-profit institution, with complete independence from commercial interests. This leads to professional integrity and objectivity, and the ability to provide decision makers with unbiased advice. A clear responsibility that sets the institution apart from a for-profit firm is that it seeks successes far beyond commercial accomplishments. The continuity principle implies the development and maintenance of a corporate knowledge base, with long-term employees and a systematically created repertoire of models, databases, and experience. 19

21 20 The motivation of employees to stay in the institution is based on salaries and working conditions that are better than in competing industries, on the reputation of the institution, and the desire to serve the country by achieving better solutions to security challenges. The flexibility principle implies an organization that is able to respond quickly to decision requirements without bureaucratic obstacles. This required flexibility will not exist if the institution is only able to start working after time-consuming bidding processes in a competing environment, or after the completion of mandatory lowlevel administrative and bureaucratic procedures. The scientific state of art principle implies a close link to the scientific and relevant industrial communities within the nation and internationally. Results of the institution s work in particular its research methodologies and longer-term experiences will need scientific review at conferences and workshops. The positive elements of scientific (not commercial!) competition will be utilized as much as possible for the support of expertise, maintenance of the knowledge base, and motivation of scientific staff members. The customer relationship principle implies that the different cultures of science and decision making (e.g., military, political) require an organizational structure that creates the most effective possible synergies and establishes the requirement of cooperation. The management principle implies planning and organizing resources to produce cost-effective and timely products that meet decision requirements. It thus deals with people, materials, money, and equipment, but the key element in the process is people their motivation, objectives, strengths and weaknesses, social behaviour, and group dynamics. 2. Training Training and certification of the project team scientists was a constant process during the project. 1 We conducted several training courses in Operations Analysis, Computer assisted exercises, Modelling and Simulation, and defence planning. External experts and advisors were invited for special sessions. In addition, members of the project team took part in a number of conferences, workshops, and working meetings that contributed to enhancement of their scientific capabilities. 2 1 Annex 1A provides a list of project participants and Annex 1B a list of acquired degrees. 2 List of key presentations at conferences and NATO meetings is included in Annex 2C.

22 Sending key scientists to international institutions was part of the initial plan but did not materialize due to funding constraints, availability of slots in relevant courses, and difficulties in receiving required clearance in time. A NATO Advanced Research Workshop 3 and an international conference on OA 4 provided excellent opportunities for training of project team scientists in methodologies, approaches and applications although not funded by this project. At the end, the best training is accomplished by working in real projects, in learning by doing Models/ knowledge transfer In NATO and in several NATO nations there exists a long tradition of developing and using models and simulations within OA institutions tasked to support the military staffs and administrations with analyses and problem solutions. In the past, developments focussed primarily on system level effectiveness, resource optimisation, tactical battle simulations, and logistics. With the transformation and new missions for NATO the focus of new developments shifts to modelling C4ISR, asymmetric conflicts, terrorist activities, network-enabled capabilities, as well as the interoperation with other security sector organisations. Many of these models are directly available and releasable because NATO resources funded the development, other models are proprietary and owned by industry or nations. In general and in the beginning, we planned to use NATO funded models for the purpose of this project. In addition, we considered national developments. Although the models of NATO are available the transfer is not trivial and organisational, training, and documentation problems create considerable obstacles. 4. Scientific Infrastructure For the utilization and execution of the models, simulations, and mathematical tools a sufficient computer infrastructure is essential. One or two so-called test-beds or model laboratories were seen necessary in order to provide the 3 NATO Advanced Research Workshop: Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector (October 2006), Velingrad, Bulgaria. 4 Using Models and Simulations in Support of Force Transformation - UMSSOFT (26-29 June 2007), G.S. Rakovski, Sofia, Bulgaria (organised and funded by DSC and the Bulgarian MoD). 5 Annex 2D provides a list of accomplished projects. 21

23 environment for testing new concepts of operation (Concept Development and Experimentation CD&E), and running the models for research, planning and decision support. In addition, we can use the setup for creating the virtual environment for exercises (Computer Assisted Exercises CAX) and for demonstration of the feasibility of certain concepts and approaches. These test-beds are in general client-server networks with several desktop computers and graphical user interfaces, which we can link and structure in manifold combinations for different projects and applications. 6 After some initial planning, we developed two test-beds or laboratories. JTSAC is located in the COA Academy of Science (with key elements in IPP-BAS and small detachment OR Lab in IMI-BAS) and ASTRA is located in DSC. 5. End-users It was anticipated that the results of all work packages are documented and used either for the direct decision making process or as bases for long term evolutionary development of expertise which feeds the continuous advice to the administration as well as the improvement of methodology and approaches to the generation of novel solutions. In this sense, it was of high importance that we involved from the beginning the decision-making authorities in the process and tried to integrate them into the project work as much as possible. This was required for the build up of confidence and trust into the seriousness and professional attitude of the analyses on the side of the customer and the development of knowledge and familiarity in the understanding of the decision process on the side of the scientists. 6. International Reputation In addition, the teams in BAS (COA) and DSC needed to build up an international reputation of high professionalism and to become integrated into the network of Operations Analysts. This was accomplished by the direct involvement into the Research and Technology Organisation (RTO) of NATO, the participation in international workshops and conferences, the work within international projects (e.g. European Union), and the contributions to bilateral projects (e.g. Ukraine, Croatia, etc.). 7 6 The list of equipment acquired with project funds to enhance the scientific infrastructure is presented in Annex 3. 7 List of projects see in Annex 2D and their description in part D of the report. 22

24 C. REALIZATION OF THE PROJECT We present the initial organisation of the project and participating institutions and companies according to the Project Plan at Figure 1. Advisors NC3A-Hague NOA (D) TNO-FEL (N) Developers Institute for Parallel Processing BAS Planning & coordination Network Modeling Economic Analysis team Institute of Mathematics and Informatics BAS OR / M&S team Defense Staff College MoD Operational capabilities and operations planning team Academy of Ministry of Interior Ministry of Defence MoSPDA, Civil Protection Agency Ministry of Interior NS Gendarme End Users Figure 1: Organization of the SfP project Once the project was approved, we decided to organize the project in seven Working Groups as follows: Working Group 1: Development of Infrastructure (to manage development of Communications and Information Infrastructure and knowledge management CII/KM); Working Group 2: Mathematical Methods and Tools for Operational Analyses; Working Group 3 : CAX and operations planning (to perform studies in the area of CAX and Model Assisted Exercises MAX); Working Group 4: Enterprise Architecture Governance (C4I/EAG); Working Group 5: Force Planning and Management; Working Group 6: Acquisition Management; Working Group 7: Management and Reporting As result of performing some projects and making some evolutionary adjustments due to organizational obstacles, funding constraints, existing responsibilities, and cultural conditions, a structure of two principal core teams in operations analysis is presently in place. This is very likely not the final 23

25 organizational structure, because several decisions related to the future of operations analysis in Bulgaria are currently pending. The fact that these decisions are being considered can be seen as a consequence of the high-value contributions of the teams to the decision-making process in the administration and the visibility of the group s already high level of professionalism. The separation of the group into two principal core teams has considerable advantages. The COA (formed in the Academy of Science-BAS by IPP and IMI) maintains the freedom and neutrality of scientifically developed projects results and, if it were to receive a basic level of funding and support, could become a not-for-profit institutional resource for several ministries in Bulgaria. In addition, it is able to generate and maintain links to the scientific and industrial communities; the results of its work are reviewed on a peer-topeer basis; and the scientists working within the institution can be employed under standard civilian conditions. The team within the DSC, on the other hand, has very close relationships with the Ministry of Defence. As a result, it has a high level of internal knowledge and confidence, which are necessary prerequisites for the team to make appropriate contributions to the decision process. Another advantage of having a close relationship with the defence establishment is that this team has the ability to take on projects that deal with sensitive issues. In the beginning it was planned to use rigid control mechanisms as MS- Project and Gantt charts for the continuous review and update of tasks and resources. The requirement was well understood although the practical developments, rapid changes in user demands and limited availability of capable controllers did not allow for the consequent realization. The COA primarily continues the tasks of the Working Groups 1, 2, 3,4 and 7, while the OA-team in DSC focuses on the tasks as originally defined for Working Groups 5 and 6. The JTSAC infrastructure was generated and is utilized within the COA while the ASTRA infrastructure is operated in the OA-team of the DSC. For the future, it is important that both units are formally linked by agreements that require them to work together closely and help to create the desired synergies. A general framework agreement between the COA (BAS) and DSC already exists. In addition, we envision a framework agreement to form a Bulgarian Network for Operational Analysis at the end of the project; this network would include more institutes within BAS, two universities, the DSC, and the Academy of the Ministry of the Interior. 24

26 1. IPP-BAS and IMI-BAS (hosting COA and JTSAC) The main capabilities of COA are Operational Analysis, Enterprise Architecture Governance, Modelling and Simulation, Planning Management and Assessment and Applications Development. The Joint Training Simulation and Analysis Centre (JTSAC) was developed to provide a good environment for analysis and exercises in emergency and crisis management. The JTSAC mission is to be a test-bed for different agencies in planning, conducting, and analysis of interagency/international and civil-military cooperation as well as exercises in the area of civil security. Capabilities of JTSAC are Scenario Development and Analysis, Joint Training and Exercises, Command and Control, and Communications Architecture Development. The classic mathematical Operations Research is focused on the study and development of OR models for decision support and contribution to software engineering. The researched areas are: Linear Programming/Integer Programming, Graph Theory/Discrete Optimization, Dynamic Programming/Optimal Control, Analysis of Dynamical Systems, Time Series Analysis, Digital Signal and Image processing and Data mining in Digital Libraries. 2. DSC (hosting ASTRA Lab) G.S. Rakovski Defence and Staff College is a centre for education and training of senior and mid-career officers from all services of the Bulgarian Armed Forces, equivalent defence civilians, as well as uniformed and civilian personnel from other organizations of the security sector, state, and local administration. As such, DSC is in excellent position to tap on up-to-date operational and managerial expertise and real world experience. The Analytical Support of Transformation (ASTRA) is a Research Laboratory of the DSC, run by its Defence and Force Management Department (DFMD). Other faculty members, in addition to DFMD personnel, contribute to its activities. On a project basis, it employs researchers and experienced practitioners. The ASTRA Lab conducts research and provides decision support and training in seven functional areas: Capabilities-Based Force Planning, Costing, Organizational transformation, gaming in support of Senior Decision Makers, Decision Support to Personnel Management, Acquisition Project Management and Security and Defence Research & Technology Management. It maintains capacity in crosscutting areas such as methods for decision-making and decision support systems, knowledge management, and computer network and software support. 25

27 D. SCIENTIFIC RESULTS The main objective of the project was to build an institution for Operations Analysis in Bulgaria through development of technical/scientific infrastructure, knowledge transfer from NATO and NATO nations, and training of a team of young scientists. As originally planned, 8 it was achieved in three steps. The first step was the development of scientific infrastructure, including selection and training of young scientists, the second step was the transfer and adaptation of models and knowledge, and the third step was the application of these advanced tools in projects of interest for the end users. In this context, the team performed several additional projects that required further development of concepts, models, databases and results addressing the needs of a particular customer. Thus, the scientific results relate to the build-up of the infrastructure and first application projects, here we do not describe the transfer of models/ knowledge, training and the organisation of the institution as scientific results per se. In the following, we describe the developed infrastructure, including models and software, and two major application projects. We developed two test-beds or laboratories: the Joint Training Simulation and Analysis Centre (JTSAC) in the COA and the Analytical Support for Transformation Laboratory (ASTRA) in the DSC. The teams transferred some of the software and models for these test beds from NATO and NATO nations and partly developed and adjusted them with own resources. The transfer of models from the NC3A as initially planned was primarily for the OA-team in the DSC due to NATO-NC3A restrictions. The test beds provide the instruments for two different kinds of application. The first is the pure scientific experimental use, while the second is the utilisation in a virtual environment for exercises and demonstrations. The experimental approach is also known as Concept Development and Experimentation (CD&E), a phrase which is used during the last few years in the military domain. The utilisation as instrument for exercises is also known as Computer Assisted exercises (CAX) also used in the military domain. Although both kinds of application are based on the same setup we need to clearly distinguish the objectives, the approaches, the handling and most importantly, the final analysis and results. The rigid scientific experiment requires maximum control on parameters and variables to provide for sys- 8 SfP project plan (2004) 26

28 tematic analysis of input-output relations or the so-called ceteris paribus condition is applied. In a scientific approach, the analyst wants to get insights to the functioning of the system under examination. On the other hand, the objective of an exercise or demonstration is the training of participants who act within the simulated or virtual environment, representing a scenario of potential real life, usually in a critical or catastrophic sense. This separation into kinds of application is important. An exercise is useless as a tool for scientific insights; at best the so called lessons learned are available for the participants. A scientific experiment is useless as exercise because the rigid control of variables do not permit the free activities of participants in a set of replications. 1. SCIENTIFIC INFRASTRUCTURE (JTSAC) Security sector review in support to the change management process builds on the main functions of OA concept development, experimentation (based on a test bed for the (interactive) simulation of those concepts) and exercising. The instrument for concept development and experimentation is the Joint Training Simulation and Analysis Centre in Civil Security (JTSAC) used to support the change management process, based on the concept developed in COA. The second function of the JTSAC is the utilisation of a virtual environment for exercising, training, demonstration, and motivation (Computer Assisted exercises-cax). The Joint Training Simulation and Analysis Centre (JTSAC) is mainly a network of desktop computers, workstations, graphical user interfaces, in a client-server architecture. The net is in principle a dedicated Local Area Network (wired as well as wireless) (LAN/WLAN). The operating software on the servers as well as workstations is the standard Microsoft Windows with the Microsoft Office suite of tools. On a few workstations, we installed additional software applications in order to accomplish special tasks for the experimental or exercise application. These software applications are in general the simulation software for execution of simulation models. JTSAC is physically located in the Institute for Parallel Processing Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (IPP-BAS) and was experimentally separated into the following cells: 9 Operational Centre, Analytical Centre, Simulation Centre, White Cell, Communication Centre, Briefing Centre, Press Centre, VIP guests Centre, Registration Desk and a set of Mobile Field Modules See Annex 2D[8] 10 For remote CAX audio and video connectivity, see annex 2D [9] 27

29 Figure 2: JTSAC architecture disposition in IPP-BAS In the area of mathematical optimization techniques and software development, the IMI-BAS team supports the JTSAC. For the operation as an experimental test-bed or as a virtual environment for conduct of exercises many models, simulations, and special software are required. These models were developed or acquired in combination with the application projects, while the software was adapted to correspond best to the needs of end-users. Presently the following models are under use: C4 Architecture model for the security sector CAX model for C4 of the security sector Model of Armed Forces structure in Bulgaria Land forces, Air force and Navy structures Model of non-military structures in Bulgaria Civil Protection and Ministry of Interior forces Model of integrated security sector force structure for economic and operational (capabilities) analysis Model of acquisition of major platforms, weapons and C4 systems Model for assessment of infrastructure and logistics Model of complex security sector operations Model for operations planning Model for security sector computer-assisted exercises 28

30 These models and architectures were developed as conceptual models, methodologies and architecture approaches. In addition, we applied some special software mainly for the support of CAX. The major scientific results 11 are presented on Figure 3. 1.Concept Model and Approach to use OA in Security Sector Review and Change Management Process for Integrated Security Sector 2. Conceptual Model and Approach for capabilities oriented, scenario based and operational concept driven planning process for the Integrated Security Sector 3. CAX Architecture for Change Management to Integrated Security Sector for Effect Based Operations 4. Conceptual Model and Approach for horizontal and vertical integration of Security Sector C4 System 5. Architectural Approach to Concept Development and Scenario Preparation 6. Scenario development through morphological and system analysis 7. Scenario modelling and simulation 8. Decision Support Package for Emergency Management 9. Package for low-cost Computer Assisted exercises 10. Architecture for telecomms network, mobile C2 modules and sensor integration for CAX environment 11. Model and tools for program management and assessment Figure 3: Structure and relations of the JTSAC scientific results These models and concepts can be grouped in two groups: Theoretical: Application oriented: 6-11 Theoretical results were used to define the framework for the applicationoriented projects. We also used the results to develop educational and training courses. 13 We discuss and describe key aspects of the achieved scientific results in JTSAC in the following chapters. 11 Documented in published papers and technical reports listed in annex 2A-2D. 12 The second scientific result is described in detail in section Further studies are planed using existing research programs and by definition of National Security Research Program to increase the knowledge and improve understanding of the security, security sector and most of all its governance and management. 29

31 1.1. Concept to use JTSAC in Security Sector Review and Change Management Process This concept we based on the experimental use of the test-bed in the context of concept development and experimentation (CD&E). Strategic Review Process: White paper Concept Development list of principles and options Scenario Development Operational Architecture Analysis, Assessment, Recommendations Model Environment Set-up Experimentation Pre-experimental Training Political and expert debate Figure 4: Use of JTSAC in Security Sector Review and Change Management Process The process as presented in Figure 4 is a base for the change management, i.e. the transformation of the security sector into an integrated network-enabled organization as goal of the third generation of security sector reform to address challenges of civil security. In addition to EU TACOM SEE a project where JTSAC played a lead role in the preparation phase and analysis phase the Centre provided analytical support to the following security sector review activities: Strategic review of civil protection system in Bulgaria and its EU/NATO/regional context Development of Civil Security Concept for Bulgaria Development of a Scenario, Operational Architecture and Message Flow 14 See section on the TACOM (EU terrorist attack consequence management in SEE) exercise. 30

32 Establishing of a model environment based on JTSAC for implementation of the Operational Architecture and Message Flow Analysis, assessment and lessons learned drafting from the exercise Update of the White paper on Civil Protection and Concept for Civil Security. JTSAC has a key role in the process of Concept Development and Experimentation. It provides integration of different organizations and technologies as well as the involvement of human-in-the-loop. In this sense, it generates motivation and is a tool for joint work and well-documented experimentation, providing objective material for analysis and adaptation of the concepts. In a larger context we used the developed capacity of the COA to work with different tasking organizations, participating in the transformation process in different elements of the security sector as presented on Figure 5 (see also the picture on Figure 17 at the end of the report). Concept development Transformation Process => Experimentation Advanced Technology Demonstration Acquisition Office Acquisition Training / CAX Force Preparation Force Employment COA Transformation Office Operations Figure 5: Tasking organizations for OA in transformation process Since it is a challenge for the change management as presented on Figure 6, the transition to integrated security sector concepts can be developed and tested in JTSAC. A third generation of security sector reform (SSR) driven by new type of complex integrated operations requires concept testing and experimentation to get to improved solutions. 31

33 Special Services MoFA MoD MoI MoEM MoFA MoD MoI MoEM Special Services Integrated Security Sector One Ministry s Operation: Diplomacy Defense Public order Emergency management Complex Crisis Management Operations of the Integrated Security Sector strongly dependent of information Figure 6: Integrated operations and Integrated Security Sector The present structure of the security sector consists out of different institutions with exclusive authorisation to use force or information. At the same time nowadays, the security environment defines the need for complex crisis management operations with essential interagency, international, joint, as well as public-private cooperation. This will enforce the integration in the security sector. The institutions keep their identity together with the opportunity to form combined interagency forces for specific complex operations with possible changes of the mix of forces in different phases of the operation. An integrated security sector is not an organization, but a concept for organizing institutions participating in a network in order to be able to work together; to support each other, and reinforce each other. For every certain operation, one institution is leading according to the legal status of the operation. We present a model of the Integrated Security Sector from the point of view of MoD and its main functions for air/ maritime sovereignty, expeditionary operations and support to civilian authorities on Figure Concept to use JTSAC as instrument for CAX We present a process diagram of an exercise (CAX) on Figure 8 as used in the process of supporting the organizational development of MoSPDA for the EU TACOM SEE-2006 exercise See Annex 2D.[8] 32

34 President - CCNS Ministry of Justice Integrated Security Sector Council of Ministers - SC w/t CMC Parliament cmsns VIP Protection Svce Counterintelligence EU Ministry of Interior Border Police State Administration M Education and Training Quality of Life Armaments and Infrastructure NATO Joint Staff MoD Joint Ops HQ MP ARMY AF Navy Expeditionary Forces Ministry of Defense Gendarme Police Other Police Services R e s e r v e Civil / National Guard Civil Protection Fire Brigade Info Protection of F I N A N C E Ministry of Foreign Affairs Intelligence Figure 7: Model of the Integrated Security Sector around MoD Used acronyms: CCNS Consultative Council of National Security (if any); SC Steering Committee with the Assessment Group; CMC Crisis Management Centre ; cmsn Commissions; EU European Union; MP Military Police Individual Training General Education / Training Joint CAX Planning Pre-exercise Training Lessons Learned Analysis CAX Specialized Tactical Training Figure 8: Process of preparing, executing, and analysing CAX within the overall training of administrations 33

35 Exercises and demonstration of new concepts can be a driving force of change. Training is a critical requirement for almost all functions within an administration, in particular for critical responsibilities. We see training aspects in all different elements of the knowledge management process. To play such a role the training must be based on effective modelling and simulation of the future reality in order to learn from this future simulation. It requires support by effective analysis and a lessons learned system. Computer Aided Dispatch System For Effect Based Teams PMA and CBM MHS WIS / LLS IDS / COP M&S tools or real C2 of: MoD MoI MoSPDA MoFA Federation Network BUS Design and M&S of the Technology Diagrams as well as the Network and Comms / Info Assurance Internet Government Security Council, Standing Committee on Protection of Population: Integrated Security Sector International Organizations GRID Computing resource DMS Scenario Development Scenario Simulation PMA Planning, Management and Assessment; CBM Continuity of Business Management; DMS Decision Making Support; M&S Modeling and Simulation; DB Data base; GIS Geographic Information System; MHS Message handling System, WIS - Web Information System, IDS Integrated Display System (COP), GRID European R&D network of computing resources, GIS DB Natural Environment M&S from BAS Institutes Figure 9: Architecture of the CAX test-bed environment On Figure 9 the environment for exercises on C4ISR of Integrated Security Sector is depicted. This hardware / software / models environment was under development in JTSAC and is opened for integration with other elements, developed by different teams from the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, as well as other research centres or companies Currently demonstration of model integration in the framework of MSG-049 under NMSG of NATO RTO was conducted and demonstrated during the MSG-049 meeting hosted in the Institute for Parallel Processing-Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (8-9 November, 2007, see D3, 3.1. Several elements of this test-bed are presented as a contribution to different projects under 7-th Framework Program of EU. 34

36 1.3. Architectural Approach to Concept Development and Scenario Preparation We developed the approach 17 in order to support the connectivity between the scenario of a given emergency and the technical architecture of a simulation centre by utilization of events timetable (scenario script) and a software environment for communication and message exchange. We tested it during the preparation phases in the project EU TACOM SEE For the generation of scenarios a special methodology was developed. 19 The main idea of the methodology for scenario development was to consider the future in a period of years in different global context. For that reason, we used the experience in that area by application of morphological analysis in a three stage process: a) Definition of a hyper space, with dimensions (e.g. History, Geographic, Politics, Economics, Demography) and sub-sets (e.g. EU based Politics, Allied Politics, Independent Politics), keeping in mind that both dimensions and the sub-sets should be mutually exclusive b) Definition of a cross-consistency matrix in the defined hyperspace with rating of the relationships between matrix elements c) Classification of the obtained combinations (scenarios) in accordance with their additive rating. In the whole process, we also implemented the experts knowledge gathered via brainstorming and Delphi techniques filtering because of the specifics of the task (future forecasting). Coping with different combinations ra ting, we considered two types of scenarios passive (could not be directly influenced, e.g. terrorism) and active (could be directly influenced, e.g. regular planned operation). After the development of the theoretical methodology, we devised an analytical tool and the supporting software. The background for this achievement was the program I-SCIP (Intelligent Computer Interface Program). 20 Blocks and different dimensions represent different alternatives in the morphological analysis graphically by their class. The cross-consistency matrix shows the weighted links (in the range ± [1, 100] %) between the different alternatives. The results of the morphological analysis are rated scenario s combinations arranged in a table and entitled by experts. 17 See Annex 2A.[22] 18 See Annex 2D.[8] 19 See Annex 2D.[11] and 2A.[8] - [10], 2D.[13] 20 See Annex 2A.[9] 35

37 The implementation of I-SCIP program was also important for the further system analysis of the rated (from the morphological analysis) scenario combinations. The main idea in the system analysis of the scenarios is to define and classify their key elements within experts opinion on the basis of feedforward (influence) and feed-backward (dependence) pair-wise connections between the scenarios elements (pictured as arrows). We defined all the scenario s elements in the system analysis process via brainstorming and participation of subject-matter experts. The connections between the elements are weighted (yellow labels above the arrows) within the experts in the range [0,100] % and the time (blue labels above the arrows) of a certain link is also determined for dynamical modelling of the scenario. Additionally the Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets Theory supports the work of the experts weighting. The final scenario elements classification we structured with the help of a sensitivity diagram, which classifies the elements in an influence/dependence Cartesian coordinate system into active, passive, critical, buffer. The last stage of the process for scenario development is the writing of the scenarios text form by utilization of the results from the morphological and system analyses in the context of scenario s activeness and scenario s elements classification. At the end, such defined scenario is used to define operational and system architecture, as well as message flow for the CAX Conceptual Model for horizontal and vertical integration of Security Sector C4 System. 21 In the security area, we have to consider C4ISR at least on five vertical levels and to try to integrate elements of C4ISR on different levels in one system for seamless C2 of security operations in addition to already discussed horizontal integration between the elements of the security sector. This integration is not only challenge for interoperability on technical and even operational level, but serious issue on System Governance Level (SGL) at which input and decisions are made for principles of building / operating these systems, on architecture of the C4ISR, development of infrastructure strategies, implementation of business applications, and of course investment in C4ISR systems / components. 21 Conceptual Model and Approach for horizontal and vertical integration of Security Sector C4 System was developed by Dr. Shalamanov (see Annex 2A.[16], [21]) in order to define research agenda in JTSAC related to improvement of the services to citizens through effective governance and management. 36

38 The levels of a C4ISR system of systems are: Non-emergency communication (e.g. 311 in US) Emergency communications (e.g. 911 in US, 112 in EU) Emergency management to include the Integrated Emergency Management System (IEMS), the Integrated Early Warning System (IEWS), and the Integrated Alert and Notification System (IANS) Defence-Crisis Management / Expeditionary Operations to include the NMCC Total Defence / Total War Practically on every level there are interagency and even international dimensions to consider, but for sure going down from non-emergency response to the total war the requirements are going higher and higher. At the same time most probably most of the time, we will need for providing the security and safety of the person to use non-emergency and emergency communications systems (they are closer to the citizens in everyday life). Most critical are emergency, crisis management and wartime systems and they will attract most probably most of the investments. It means another governance challenge is to manage resources so to have optimal level of functionality for all levels of the integrated system. We present a more specific model for horizontal and vertical integration on Figure 10 for the area of citizen s security. Citizen / caller Incident Police Fire Medical Emergency Emergency Support Functions Defense Related Emergency Support Functions Large Emergency Situation Mobile EOC Unified Emergency Call Taking Specialized Dispatching (CAD) Defense Related Crisis Response Functions Civil Protection Rescue Emergency Operations Center (EOC) Crisis Situation Early Warning System Alert and Notification System Crisis Management Center (CMC) Figure 10: Horizontal integration in three main levels of vertical integration of integrated response system 37

39 We see citizen s security on at least three levels: Through Incident Management System that receives calls from the citizens, or other source and react with capabilities of first responders Police, Fire teams, Civil Protection (CP) teams, Medical Emergency (ME) teams; If there are too many calls for a series of incidents as well as information from Early Warning (EW) System (part of the Integrated Emergency Management System IEMS). If there is information from the Crisis Management System (CMS) for a large emergency and the network of EOC and deployment of the mobile EOC activates the IEMS. If in addition to Police, Fire, ME and CP other capabilities are activated from emergency support function areas (transport, utilities, others). In certain cases through CMS elements of the defence forces (defence related EM support functions from engineers, NBC, medical, transport, even Special Forces and CIMIC) are activated in support of civil authorities. In this case, Incident Management System (IMS) is subordinated to certain extent to the higher priority emergency management operation. If there is any kind of intentional external threat or any kind of threat to Bulgarian citizens outside country the crisis management system is activated and emergency management and incident management systems are subordinated to the highest priority crisis management operation. Critical for IMS is Computer Aided Dispatch (CAD), linked with Geographic Information System (GIS) and related Automated Vehicle Location (AVL), data bases (including with access to Automatic Number Identification ANI and Automatic Location Identification ALI data bases) as well as sharing of this information between different centres call taking, dispatch, operations. On the level of EOC, a new system for emergency management is required with opportunity to manage resources, messages, and linked with the Early Warning System, Alert and Notification System, Decision Making Support System and enhanced Office Management System. This EMS links with CAD and GIS / databases of IMS. On the level of CMC as next level modern C2 system for intensive military involvement is required, but linked with IEMS and IMS. CMC should have access to Alert and Notification System and EOC. 38

40 In certain cases especially on district and municipality level EOC and CMC could be the same facility with certain specifics and there is a need for redundancy in order to have a main and alternate centre. When the city is a District/Region centre one centre (main) is run by Governor Administration and the alternative one by Mayor Administration, but to have two of them available for both the Governor and Mayor in order to save resources Scenario modelling and simulation for risk assessment at strategic level The main idea in the scenario simulation with PowerSim Studio 2005 is the implementation of Systems Dynamics Theory, where we put the emphasis on model conceptualization and utilization of a multi-criteria evaluation (that helps to ensure correspondence of the resulting model from structural and behavioural point of view). In accordance with this, there have been defined four kinds of structural properties: dynamic behaviour, time lags, feedback, and non-linearity. We are able to implement these structural properties simply by two basic entities: levels, flows, and their corresponding attributes. 22 The basic paradigm is to accumulate flows in levels, which change the magnitude of the levels themselves in time. Therefore, the dynamics of the levels (instability or oscillations) is the key element that is used in the current modelling and simulation process. The current approach is based on a simple application of the cause-result paradigm in the I-SCIP environment 23, which is implemented in two basic ways (static and dynamic). The static one (also a two stage process for risk assessment) is a general interpretation of the scenario by means of morphological analysis for scenario building and classification into active or passive (in accordance with the additive sum of a selected scenario connections weights in the range ±[1,100]). Further the objects from a selected active (more positive) or passive (more negative) scenario are broken down into sub-objects (entities) and weighted directed relations between these entities, created on the basis of brainstorming discussions between the scenario developers and experts. Usually, the entities in the scenario of interest are: ministries, other participating authorities (local and/or international), agencies, population, etc. The utilization of a brainstorming technique 24 determines heuristically the relations between these entities, their directions, weights, and time lags. 22 See Annex 2D.[13] 23 See Annex 2A.[9] 24 See Annex 2D.[11] 39

41 The resulting model is a very complex dynamical system with a lot of entities and relations. A sensitivity diagram that shows the influences and dependencies between the participating sub-objects (entities) in the scenario graphically supports the system static entities risk assessment and the user is able to determine the risky elements statically. 25 We implemented the resulting data (a 2D matrix of relations weights and their time lags) in the PowerSim Studio based on arrays of levels and flows with influences as positive feedbacks and dependencies as negative. The dynamics of the relations (flows) connects closely with their time lags, weights and desired result (exponential growth, goal seeking, and oscillation around a certain range, S-shaped growth, or different combination between them). 26 We developed both models for scenario simulation as closed-loop and as interactive simulation (with a capability for user intervention) for strategic level forecasting of risk by means of dynamics of public feelings (pressure, support, influence subject to other participating entities (e.g. media, agencies, etc.). We developed and promoted two models for risk assessment (forecasting) at strategic level after a dirty bomb terrorist attack 27 and one model for anthrax terrorist attack. Described and interpreted is the simulated scenario for dynamic risk assessment (forecasting) using system attributes and variables like productivity, social pressure, satisfaction, etc. in a causality manner. We designed the model in different levels of abstraction, using variables, which represent entities from the reality and in general have an empirical (heuristic) context. 28 The models could be utilized in measurement and quantification of real life empirical entities, which is a complex, but perspective, approach that requires detailed insights and experts knowledge of the considered critical areas and regions sectors of interest Decision Support Package for Emergency Management The Decision Support Package for Emergency Management consists of seven modules (six basic modules and one for the package interface) implemented as an auto run setup CD for creation of an Analytical Cell in the JTSAC See Annex 2A.[9] 26 See Annex 2D.[13] 27 See Annex 2D.[13] 28 See Annex 2D.[13] 29 This software was developed by IMI-BAS upon EU TACOM SEE 2006 project. 40

42 The first module is the Scenario Computer Interface Program, which allows the creation of flow-chart diagrams of emergency scenarios. 30 The idea is to build a static flow-chart of a certain scenario with a set of entities (pictured as resizable rectangles or ellipses and be e.g. civil protection authorities, injured people, buildings, transportation, terrorists, etc.) that are connected with feed-forward (influence) and feed-backward (dependence) weighted relations (pictured as arrows) in the interval [1,100]% (yellow labels above the arrows). All entities, relations between them and relations weights are determined resulting from the experts brainstorming sessions. The SCIP program facilitates the classification of the entities with a help of a sensitivity diagram. The sensitivity diagram is an influence/dependence (100/100) percentage Cartesian coordinate system, which classify the elements into active (100/100), passive (50/100), critical (100/50), buffer (50/50) spread among yellow, blue, red and green sectors. 31 The second module is a Model for Prognoses and Management of the Material Supplies during Crises. The model simulates the supply and the distribution of critical resources (water, food, medicines, blankets, etc.) in time of crises. It calculates the number of people who need the respective resource or, equivalently, the flow of the demand of the resource as a time function of the impact of the critical events. We implemented the model in the PowerSim Studio 2005 environment. The third module is Software for Management of Network Resource Systems with Application to Critical Infrastructure Assessment. 32 A theoretical model and an experimental computer interactive implementation we proposed for predicting critical behaviours of large network flow systems. Due to the ability of interactive re-computing with different sets of input and control data, an expert using the proposed implementation can perform the adequate decision-making. The module uses a graphical notation interface that consists of nodes and arcs. The nodes require input data for input and output volume, input flow, demanded volume (minimal, maximal, primary) and the arcs require input data for: min, max and primary capacity. An external linear program solver we utilized for problem solving. The resulting solution we presented among the nodes and arcs labels See Annex 2A.[8], [9] 31 See Annex 2A.[9] 32 See Annex 2A.[6] 33 See Annex 2D.[8], [9] 41

43 The fourth module is Model for rescuing injured from terrorist attacks. 34 The key idea is that because of several terrorist attacks there are a number of injured people, divided into several types, and located at several places. The injured have to be attended by rescue teams, which are placed in special rescue stations. The problem is to determine the allocation of teams to terrorist attack places so that the maximum injured people are saved. The time for reaching the incident places from the different rescue stations is important data. The model uses MS Excel as an input interface and a GLPK integer linear programming solver. The fifth module is Model for Dynamic Evacuation. 35 The key idea is that a population of the settlement X has to be evacuated to safe locations because it is threatened by an approaching hazardous phenomenon (e.g. poisonous or radioactive cloud, flood, storm, etc.). A precise forecast for the dynamics (the movement) of the phenomenon is assumed to exist until all the roads leading out of the X are cut off. The problem is to determine the transport flows dispatched out of X, at each of the (discrete) time moments until X is hit by the hazardous phenomenon. The dynamic evacuation topic was later further developed and incorporated as one of the central elements in the DynEvac and the TrafEvac projects submitted to the Security theme of the EU 7th Framework Programme. The sixth module is a Model for Critical Infrastructure assessment developed in PowerSim Studio 2005 environment for forecasting the pressure to different participating entities in the scenario (civil protection, population, etc.) in a certain time interval established. 36 The seventh module is an application for joint interface with buttons to each of the above-discussed six modules and a bi-language (English and Bulgarian) help file (in html format) Package for low-cost Computer Assisted Exercises (CAX) The development of the package for low-cost Computer Assisted Exercises is based on the developments in COA 38 and MOSEX system. 39 The idea of a low cost system is the more or less exclusive utilisation of available off the 34 See Annex 2A.[3] 35 See Annex 2A.[29] 36 The model is developed by NOA Germany, see Annex 2B.[4] 37 See Annex 2D.[8], [9] 38 See Annex 2B.[3], [4], 2A.[8], [10], [11] 39 See Annex 2A.[15], 2D.[8] 42

44 shelf software, e.g. Microsoft Office (or Open Office), Microsoft Outlook, standard Internet s, etc. Any special software requires high resources for developing, testing, and maintaining. The available software just needs to be used and orchestrated in an intelligent manner, only a few add-ons require some development in case by case although minimised. The paradigm is to implement Computer Assisted Exercises on a managing level in the security sector. 40 As a result to provide an efficient and cost-effective way to train, improve and analyze the decision making skills of the personnel responsible for crisis management, especially for decisions based on received orders, perception of environment, perception of own capabilities, assessments and assumptions for the future. The main idea for the development of the package is a practical validation of the concept for modelling and simulation 41 in the area of Computer Assisted Exercises. 42 Here we should note that similar to the modern trends in simulation we use multiple integration, in order to be able to create a complete and flexible environment for simulation of emergencies. 43 The architecture of the package for low-cost Computer Assisted Exercises has the form as presented on Figure Planning & Costing Customer Scenario Development Scenario Simulation Mapping in GIS the Scenario Development Lessons Learned Analysis Documentation of Officials acts Decision making & Officials responds Figure 11: Architecture of the package for low-cost CAX It should only be noted that, generally, the architecture of the package for low-cost Computer Assisted Exercises is oriented towards the customer (end-user) requirements, according to which an implementation plan with the 40 See Annex 2A.[12]-[17], [22], 2B.[6]-[7] 41 See Annex 2B.[3]-[4] 42 See Annex 2A.[17] 43 See Annex 2A.[10], [11] 44 See Annex 2A.[8], 2D.[8],[9] 43

45 corresponding costs is produced, taking into consideration factors like: modularity, scalability, networking, interoperability, flexibility, and reusability. The planning process implements the MS Project tool, into which we integrated a Resource and Activity Based Costing via MS Excel and QPR Balance Score Cards. 45 The doted contour represents the implementation framework for Computer Assisted Exercises that is incorporated because of the implementation plan and cost approval by the customer (end-user). The implementation framework for Computer Assisted Exercises consists of six building blocks (modules). The module for scenario development we base on I-SCIP 46, this allows to work in a virtual environment for interactive graphical modelling of emergency scenarios through flow-charts diagrams. The module for scenario simulation we based on transformation of the scenario text (created because of application of the previous module for scenario development) into the more convenient, for machine interpretation, scenario script. The scenario script consists of messages that are preliminary prepared and loaded into a system for scenario simulation Message Handling System. 47 The main idea of the scenario simulation is based on the client-server message exchange achieved either with modifications of commercial products like MS Outlook or with ad hoc created ones. 48 The scenario script we divided into static (preliminary prepared fixed messages) and dynamic (planned or unplanned messages created during the Computer Assisted exercise). All exchanged messages are arranged in accordance within a special template. 49 Graphical interpretation of the scenario development is accomplished via Geographical Information System (GIS) implemented into an Integrated Display System. For the present GIS we implemented ArcInfo 9.1 and its low-cost opponent Google Earth Pro. Because of the Message Handling System integration within the Integrated Display System a certain event geographical location coordinates we visualize in the Integrated Display System, according to an exchanged message via the Message Handling System. Additionally, the Integrated Display System implements other sources of information like video watch system, video communications, and supporting 45 See Annex 2A.[8],[14],[15] 46 See Annex 2A.[9] 47 See Annex 2A.[11] 48 See Annex 2D.[9] 49 See Annex 2A.[11], 2D.[8] 44

46 information for decision-making (list of exchanged messages, meteorological, seismological, hydrological, possible solutions of distribution/optimization tasks, etc.). The Integrated Display System main purpose is holding of several input information sources (messages or other discussed above) and spreading of the output (mixed, fused) information (in different combinations) into several outputs (multi media projectors, large monitors, watch systems, etc.). 50 The decision-making and officials responds block includes a Decision Support Package (DSS) for support of the officials responds. The practical implementation of DSS package within a real CAX involves the described seven modules (see 1.6). 51 The documentation of the officials acts block (documentation block) we practically implemented by a relational database in the MS Access 2003 environment and MySQL. The access to the documentation block is via a web portal. It allows observation of the exchanged messages in accordance with a participant level. Only some of the accounts are able to see all the exchanged messages and most of the participants are able to see only the messages required for their role in CAX. In addition, it allows to observe whether the exchanged messages use a specialized template and to search around the message structure. 52 The Lessons Learned (LL) Analyses block allows combination of experienced analytics knowledge with simple statistical tools like MS Excel. 53 A certain hybrid combination of DSS and documentation block was experimented via a Web Information System that incorporates listed exchanged messages, laws, normative acts, briefings, analyses, etc. and some elements of the Integrated Display System. The resulting solution is a Web Page with all these useful capabilities that to some extent covers the idea about Common Operating Picture information fusion and integration Architecture for telecomms network, mobile C2 modules and sensor integration for CAX environment The architecture and its management approach we developed 54 as a tool for planning, simulation, deployment, management, and redeployment of 50 A practical implementation of the considered Integrated Display System is given in Annex 2D.[9] 51 See Annex 2D.[8], 2D.[9] 52 See Annex 2A.[8], [9] 53 Practical attempts about lessons learned in CAX have been established during EU TACOM LL Conference, see Annex 2D.[8] 54 See Annex 2B.[5], [1], 2A.[25], [38] 45

47 the physical network to support CAX using the set of predefined modules. Special accent is on the management of the quality of services 55 in order to be able to simulate and measure performance during the CAX. The system implementation is based on an Mbit Local Area Network (LAN), situated in the JTSAC 56, which is hidden behind a firewall and router. The communicational equipment is spread into two communicational cupboards (one for internal 57 and one for external 58 communications assurance) and a set of 4 mobile modules 59 which are UPS based systems able on providing multimedia computer based connectivity (satellite, WLAN, VoIP). Additionally, the architecture of the system we investigated both theoretically and in practice via OpNet tool and a real CAX Model and tools for project management Generally, we base the model 61 on the classical idea for division of the project management into six main phases (project lifecycle) in accordance with managing functions: Initiation (making a decision for starting the project) Planning (determining the goals and criteria for success, creating a diagram and time schedule of the functions for its completion) Execution and control (management and coordination of the team and the other recourses for the fulfilment of the initial plan) Analysis (judging the compliance of the plan and the fulfilment of the goals and criteria for success and at the same time - making decisions for possible correcting actions) Management (correcting implications, their coordination, approving and putting them into practice) Finalisation (producing report for the project of consideration and evaluation of the initial criteria for success) See Annex 2A.[38] 56 See Annex 2D.[9] ports telephone patch panel, 24 network patch panel, Ethernet switch, FM radio station W UPS, 24 ports 100Mb/s switch, DRV, 4 video-cameras, ad-hoc created communications Linux router with Zebra, Nagios and Cacti software, and MySQL based archiving. 59 Communications module for connectivity with the basic infrastructure, communicational command and control module-c2, module for high-speed radio connectivity, module for video communications). 60 See Annex 2A[25], [38], 2B.[1] 61 The model was theoretically developed and practically tested within several projects, see Annex 2D.[3], [8], [9], [11], by Dr. Shalamanov, Mrs. Irena Nikolova and Mr. Yuri Tsenkov. 62 See Annex 2A.[13], [15] 46

48 Alternatives Choice Problems in the transformation management in the security sector System Architect / OpNet General architecture Expert Choice Multi Choice2 Choice of alternatives Integrated system of management Excel/Word Balanced system of indicators QPR Assessment Plan Budget MS Project Activity Based Costing Implementation Resources reporting Figure 12: Model for the management process of projects In order to support the work in: planning, organization and tracking of tasks, assigning resources, tracking performance and keeping a project on time and within budget the MS Project tool was executed. 63 Additionally, it should be marked that the initial operational, system and technical architectures development within the project life cycle we supported by OpNet and System Architect tool. Considering the complexity of the evaluation of activities in a project task (in projects more than one activity could produce the same result), we used the model of Activity Based Costing (ABC). ABC allows us to determine the effective activities by a comparative analysis of the expenses at the level of activities and then ranking the activities in reverse proportion to their price assigning the lowest value to the activity ranked first, which meets the requirements for applicability. The machine support of the evaluation process we provided with the help of Expertchoice and Multichoice II 64 that allows experts opinion multi-criteria evaluation. 63 See Annex 2A.[14]-[15] 64 See Annex 2A.[15] 47

49 Financial Financial Yesterday How to Minimize Time and Money for How to Minimize Time and Money for Implementation Implementation of of New New Concepts? Concepts? Time for planning / implementing Time for planning / implementing Budget to run CAX Budget to run CAX Reusability of environment Reusability of environment Today Scenario Scenario and and Operational Operational Architecture Architecture How How to to Develop Develop Best Best Concept Concept and and Organizational Structure for CM System? Organizational Structure for CM System? Minimize reaction time Minimize reaction time Maximize Maximize effectiveness effectiveness Minimize Minimize negative negative consequences consequences Increase Society Satisfaction Increase Society Satisfaction JTSAC Architecture JTSAC Architecture How How to to Provide Provide Best Best Environment Environment for for Experimentation Experimentation and and Training? Training? Information Information Flow Flow Analytical Support Analytical Support Use of new technologies Use of new technologies Tomorrow CAX CAX team team training training and and development development How How to to form form and and train train team team and and develop develop CAX CAX products products / / services services for for better better way way achieving achieving other other goals? goals? Organizational, Organizational, tasking, tasking, training training Bonus Bonus payment payment and and retaining retaining personnel personnel Figure 13: Example of the use of Balanced Scorecards The improvement of the measurement of the results from the activities during the life cycle of a project, could be very well completed with the QPR Balanced Score Cards (BSC) tool, because BSC allows shifting the focus from financial management (which is restrictive) to management with a long-term perspective based on the strategy of the organization. Final reporting and presentation in the present solution we produced with the help of MS Office Projects of JTSAC A) The COA contributes to the NATO RTO NMSG within the MSG-049 and MSG-045, as well as to the NIAG project SG-098. The task of the MSG-045 is Transforming Training and Experimentation through Modelling and Simulation, the task of MSG-049 is Modelling and Simulation System for Emergency Response Planning and Training, and the task of SG-098 is Pre feasibility study on M&S for Civil Emergency Planning in Context of Defence against Terrorism. We provided and discussed several presentations and contributions in the international community See listed presentations. 48

50 The COA also hosted a meeting of the MSG-049 and demonstrated the status and use of the JTSAC in Nov B) The main goal of the project Analysis of Models for CAX on Emergency Management 66 was to analyze computer models for assessment, planning, and decision support in emergency management and to adapt models from NC3A and NATO nations (JCATS, CBS, KIBOWI, SPECTRUM, and GAM- MA) according to the requirements of Bulgarian legislation and emergency management authorities. Among the main project achievements are the architecture of a CAX environment for emergency management; the investigation of the advantages / disadvantages of CAXs for training and capacity building of central and local emergency management authorities. C) The main goal of the project Architecture for integration of the information systems for control in crisis situations- stationary and on the field 67 was to develop a model of information systems integration and an architecture framework (on the bases of DoDAF architecture framework) for implementation in a unified C2 system for emergency situations. Because of this project the effectiveness of the emergency management system was also measured and some recommendations for legislation contradictions were made. Additionally, during the project, we organised several training courses for modern software architecture development, evaluation, and simulation and we proposed a new architecture for a possible Bulgarian Early Warning System. D) Experts from JTSAC were involved in the project of Development of National Security Strategy (financed by the Council of Ministers - Bulgaria) by providing operational analysis of the security environment, security sector and its governance. E) JTSAC provides direct support to the project on Development of National Security Research Program (financed by MoES) as part of the Research Strategy of the Republic of Bulgaria and participation in the European Security Research and Innovation Forum. F) JTSAC made a serious contribution to Feasibility Study of Integrated Emergency Management System (IEMS) for Bulgaria, sponsored by US 66 Financed by the Standing Government Committee for Protection of the Population against Natural Disasters, Emergencies and Catastrophes (June-December 2005). 67 Financed by Standing Government Committee for Protection of the Population against Natural Disasters, Emergencies and Catastrophes (June December 2005). 49

51 Trade and Development Agency under contract with MoSPDA. We used the experience of EU TACOM SEE-2006 in this project and JTSAC facilitated a technology demonstration and analysis / assessment of the technologies to be used in IEMS. G) A very positive development is the cooperation with the team of the SfP project hosted in Bulgaria by IPP-BAS and UNWE in the area of program management and assessment of research projects, including CAX. 2. SCIENTIFIC INFRASTRUCTURE (ASTRA) The Analytical Support of Transformation Laboratory (ASTRA) at the G.S. Rakovski Defence and Staff College (DSC) has a similar structure as the JTSAC. It is a network of workstations with standard operating software operated and maintained by the Defence and Force Management Department (DFMD) of the DSC, in short the OA-team of the DSC. Other faculty members, in addition to DFMD personnel, contribute to its activities. On a project basis, it employs researchers and experienced practitioners from within and outside Bulgaria s defence establishment. ASTRA conducts research and provides decision support and training in seven functional areas: Capabilities-Based Force Planning Costing Organizational transformation Gaming in support of Senior Decision Makers Decision Support to Personnel Management Acquisition Project Management Security and Defence Research & Technology Management and maintains capacity in cross-cutting areas such as: Methods for decision making and decision support systems; Knowledge management; Computer network and software support Capabilities-Based Force Planning In the defence and force planning frameworks and methodology area AS- TRA, as part of the larger SfP team, developed a Methodology for Defence Planning in the Context of Evolving Security Strategy 68 and participated in the feasibility study on Analytical Support to Capability Evalu- 68 Methodology and Scenarios for Defence Planning (Sofia, Military Publishing House, 2007), Part IІ. 50

52 ation of Units. 69 The accumulated methodological capacity and practical experience would allow for effective participation in the forthcoming RTO SAS activity on Capabilities-based Long-Term Planning. In this field, ASTRA adapts and uses a number of methods and software packages, including the Joint DRR Analysis and Requirements Toolset (JDARTS), Transportation Feasibility Estimator (TFE), 70 and the Force Matrix Model (FMM). 71 It conducts training courses in Force Planning and Analytical Support of Transformation. In the area of Scenario Planning analysts from ASTRA played a lead role in the design of Methodology for Developing and Selection of Force Planning Scenarios, 72 as well as in the development and the selection of a set of force planning (situational) scenarios. 73 Lead analysts are part of the team that proposed the METAFORE project to the Security theme of the EU 7th Framework Programme. JDARTS is used to support the development and the presentation of scenarios. 74 The theme is further covered in the Force Planning training course. 75 In the area of Concepts of Operations and Comprehensive Approach to Operations ASTRA utilizes the software package GAMMA 76 in this field. The topic is covered also in the Force Planning training course. Results are reflected in a number of publications SAS-ET-AX, conducted by a RTO Exploratory Team. The conduct of a full-fledged study hangs on the willingness of at least four nations to participate. No decision has been made in that regard yet. 70 These models and tools have been transferred from NC3A. 71 Model developed by Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Company Strategic Studies Group. 72 Methodology and Scenarios for Defence Planning, Part II. 73 Methodology and Scenarios for Defence Planning, Part III. 74 Or planning situations in the NATO terminology. 75 SfP is acknowledged in Lozan Bizov, Scenarios in a Rational Approach Towards Planning in Uncertain Times, to appear in Information & Security: An International Journal 23 (2007). 76 GAMMA is a model transferred from NC3A 77 Of these, SfP is acknowledged in Lozan Bizov, Harmonizing Strategy, Operations and Planning in Making National Security, G.S. Rakovski DSC Faculty Conference, March 2007 (in Bulgarian); Gueorgui Tornev, Modelling Support to Battlespace Awareness, Information & Security: An International Journal 22 (2007): ; Todor Tagarev, Will the Bulgarian Armed Forces Develop Information Operations Capabilities? under publication in the 2007 Annual Scientific Proceedings of the National Security and Defence Faculty (Sofia: G.S. Rakovski Defence and Staff College, 2007); Boyan Mednikarov and Kalin Kalinov, An Alternative of the System Approach to Functional Aspects Analysis of the Maritime Crisis Management System, Information & Security: An International Journal 22 (2007):

53 2.2. Costing ASTRA maintains capacity for developing and using variety of methods and data on costing of units, assessing cost-efficiency, life cycle costing. It participates in the ongoing study Benchmarking Studies and Capability Costing 78 and will host the next meeting of the study group in March The participation in the forthcoming SAS activity on NATO Independent Cost Estimating and Its Role in Capability Portfolio Analysis is under consideration Organizational transformation In the area of Organizational design and management ASTRA maintains capacity for studies and provision of advice on organizational design, process improvement, and knowledge management. It uses variety of methodologies and software tools, including Balanced Scorecard, Enterprise Architectures, CMMI, System Architect, etc. It provides courses on Measuring Results of Organizational Performance, Organizational Design, Process Improvement, and Knowledge Management. In the area of Security Sector Transformation ASTRA Lab leads an interdisciplinary research project under the title The Shift from National to Civil/Societal Security: Towards Effective Transformation of the Security Sector. 80 In addition, individual scientists took part in the development of Methodology for Modelling and Analysis of Critical Infrastructure, Identification of Interdependencies, Evaluation of Vulnerabilities and Risks and Planning of Capabilities for Protection. 81 DSC is preparing a course on Se- 78 NATO RTO SAS-063 ( ). 79 The primary consideration being the availability of financing for such participation. For the general macroeconomic consideration see Todor Tagarev, Lidia Velkova, Models of Bulgaria s Defence Policy Comparative Macroperspective, Military Journal 114:5 (2007): in Bulgarian. An English language version of this paper under the title Decision-making on Future Force Structure from a Comparative Macro Perspective was presented to UMSOFT 2007 and will appear in Information & Security: An International Journal, vol Research project NSF VU-1037/05 ( ). 81 Research project # EC08 to Working Program for 2005, led by Dr. Tagarev and financed by the Standing Committee for the Protection of the Population against Natural Disasters, Emergencies and Catastrophes. 52

54 curity Sector Transformation, to be provided to partner countries Gaming in support of Senior Decision Makers ASTRA designed a simulation game Force Planning Decision Making, including a SimGame XLS package, and regularly upgrades, adapts, and uses it for educating and training both senior personnel and students. 83 Currently, ASTRA is designing a simulation (role) game Decision-making in Force Development and Budget Planning for the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine. The Bulgarian and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, the NATO Liaison Office in Kyiv, and the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF) share the financing of the project. There is an initial expression of interest from the NATO Joint Force Command Naples 84 and the RACVIAC centre in Croatia to design a similar game for the countries in the Western Balkans (Albania, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia) and Moldova Decision Support to Personnel Management The research focus is on personnel management processes and systems, and analytical support to the design of the careers of contract soldiers and reservists. ASTRA initiated a study on Comparative Cost-Benefit Analysis of Contract Soldiers Career Models and started a regular three-week course on Human Resource Management. 82 A key publication, acknowledging SfP , is Todor Tagarev and Boyan Mednikarov, Planning of Security Sector Capabilities for Protection of Maritime Sovereignty, in Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector, Ognyan Kounchev, Rene Willems, Velizar Shalamanov and Tsvetomir Tsachev, eds. (Amsterdam, IOS Press, 2007), pp The development of efficient capability portfolio is addressed in Velizar Shalamanov, Stefan Hadjitodorov, Todor Tagarev, Stoyan Avramov, Valentin Stoyanov, Pencho Geneshky, and Nikolay Pavlov, Civil Security Architectural Approach in Emergency Management Transformation, Information & Security: An International Journal 17 (2005): The approach and the experience in implementing it are described in Todor Tagarev and Georgi Stankov, Interactive Simulations in Support of Decision Making on Defence Resource Allocation, UMSSOFT 2007; to appear in Information & Security: An International Journal 23 (2007). 84 More precisely, the JFCN s Office of Security Sector Reform. 53

55 2.6. Acquisition Project Management The research focus is on acquisition management processes, methods and tools assessing and managing acquisition risks, and requirements management. 85 ASTRA Lab uses in this regard PMWS and DOORS, among others, and regularly conducts a two-week course on Acquisition Project Management Security and Defence Research & Technology Management The research focus is on taxonomies, technology readiness levels, and program-based management of defence Research and Technology (R&T). 86 In addition, lead operational analysts form the SfP team participated in the generation of the ETWAS project proposal for the Security theme of the EU 7th Framework Program. In the crosscutting areas, ASTRA Lab maintains a library of methods, tools, and bibliographical references, and regularly conducts a two-week course on Analytical Support of Transformation 87 and one-week Knowledge Management course Projects of ASTRA This section of the report includes short description of a selection of research projects, related to SfP , and run or led by ASTRA, DSC, or by DSC scientists. 85 One current issue of high-visibility is addressed in Todor Tagarev, Georgi Stankov, Lozan Bizov, Atanas Natchev, A framework methodology to support the selection of a multipurpose fighter, Information & Security: An International Journal 21 (2007): The issue of risk is treated in Gueorgui Stankov, Risk as a Factor in Decision-Making, UMSSOFT 2007; under publication in Information & Security: An International Journal 23 (2007). The process improvement aspect is examined in Alexander Dimov, Georgi Stankov, and Todor Tagarev, Using Architectural Models to Identify Opportunities for Improvement of Acquisition Management, UMSSOFT 2007; to appear in Information & Security: An International Journal 23 (2007). Dr. Venelin Georgiev presents addition project results in the article Analysis of Alternatives An Efficient Tool in Managing the Armed Forces Modernization Projects, Information & Security: An International Journal 21 (2007): Dr. Tagarev is the lead advisor in an ongoing Defence R&T Management Review, Phase I a joint project between the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine and the NATO Research and Technology Organization. 87 The pilot two-week course was conducted in the Spring of 2007 under the title Methods for Decision Making in the Defence Planning Process. 54

56 A).The Shift from National to Civil/Societal Security: Towards Effective Transformation of the Security Sector Bulgaria s National Science Fund under contract VU-MI-103/2005 finances this interdisciplinary project. It runs for three years ( ). DSC, the Academy of the Ministry of the Interior, the Centre for National Security and Defence Research-BAS, and the Institute for Security and International Studies are the main participating organisations. The research team identifies, generates, and analyses alternative approaches to deal with new security risks. To this purpose, it develops a methodology for definition of the required operational capabilities of the national security sector, devises and assesses the applicability of alternative performance measures. The team develops an architectural model of the functioning of the security sector and a methodology for effective distribution of required capabilities among security sector organizations. In the final year, it will compare alternative organizational solutions and will identify critical organizational changes and transformation steps. B). Methodology for Modelling and Analysis of Critical Infrastructure (CI) The full title of the project was Methodology for Modelling and Analysis of Critical Infrastructure, Identification of Interdependencies, Evaluation of Vulnerabilities and Risks and Planning of Capabilities for Protection. The Bulgaria s Standing Committee for the Protection of the Population against Natural Disasters, Emergencies, and Catastrophes finances this project. The methodology calls for analysis, design and decision-making process, consisting of seven steps and feedback loops. These main steps are Identification of main sectors of CI and their criticality; Identification and characterization of threats to CI; Assessment of the vulnerability of sectors to specific threats; Assessment of interdependencies among subsystems and infrastructures; Risk assessment; and the implementation of the results of the assessments in identifying and prioritizing risk mitigation measures, in two steps Elaboration of CI protection strategy; and Elaboration of a set of measures and capabilities for CI protection 55

57 C). Benchmarking Studies and Capability Costing This is an ongoing research study of the RTO, designated as SAS-063. A research team, comprising analysts from six NATO and one partner country, creates a common database of economic and capability-related data and conducts a comparative analysis of security- and defence policies in order to identify good practices in developing and maintaining capabilities. D). Enterprise Architectures in Support of Defence Transformation IBM sponsored this project in its Faculty Award program. It involves design of an architectural model of Bulgaria s defence and force management system, as well as design and analysis of alternative architectures and, as a consequence, recommendations for enhancement of the force management model used by Bulgaria s Ministry of Defence. E). Decision-making in Force development and Budget Planning This project ( ) is sponsored jointly by the Bulgarian and the Ukrainian defence ministries, the NATO Liaison Office in Kyiv and the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces. It includes design of a simulation (role) game in the pursuit of the following objectives: Train senior personnel of the Ukrainian defence establishment members of the Program/ Budget Committee and managers of main defence programs (among them are Deputy Ministers of defence, Deputy Chiefs of the General Staff, Chiefs of services, the Commander of the recently established Joint Operational Command, department heads, etc.) - in the implementation of the program-based defence resource management; Identify important gaps in the intended process of resource decision making; Identify data and information requirements, necessary analytical support, etc. 56

58 3. MOST IMPORTANT PROJECTS WITHIN SfP In this section, the projects EU TACOM 2006 and Defence Requirements Review (DRR) are described in more detail because both are typical for the OA support and both projects generated very high visibility to the public and to highest-level decision makers. While the MoD primarily tasked the DRR, executed in the COA in IPP-BAS together with DSC-ASTRA using models from NC3A, the MoSPDA (EU) tasked the TACOM project, which we primarily executed in the COA using the CAX application of the JTSAC as well as many other applications provided by different institutes of the BAS EU TACOM SEE 2006 The MoSPDA organised the exercise European Union Terrorist Act Consequences Management in South Eastern Europe 2006 (EU TACOM-SEE 2006) with the help of the European Commission and it was a major step for Bulgaria s EU integration. The aim of the exercise was to improve the response capacity and coordination of civil protection structures, experts, and intervention teams by ensuring compatibility and complementarities in their assistance to a requesting country in the context of the Civil Protection Community Mechanism. In principle, the following ideas we generated and used as bases for the development of the exercise. The problem of vulnerability of modern socio-economic systems we consider extraordinarily important. The critical conditions of modern, technologically based economies are not enough explored and researched from a holistic point of view of a total system. Although natural, man-made or system inherent crises and catastrophes appear regularly, systematic examinations with the goal of forecast, of possible prevention or the controllability of the consequences are comparatively low or are not taken seriously. Most recent events give evidence for this fundamental problem. In a crisis or catastrophe, a crisis-staff is the crucial group that can prevent possible chaotic developments and disorganization and can act to avoid disastrous consequences. Persons that come from many different organizations, administrations, and industries must organise again for the required purpose to form a crisis-staff. Since the different organizations frequently work under normal circumstances by conditions of competition, we cannot assume that the delegated persons in the staff immediately find a harmonic basis of cooperative work. It is therefore necessary to establish methods and ways in the 57

59 conception for the formation of a crisis-staff to compensate these negative influences. In addition, we assume that the delegated persons of a crisis staff originate from most different knowledge-areas. Although this is an essential element of crisis management, a considerable problem must be taken into account in the internal communication, since different knowledge-areas have developed own, partially very particular languages, that hinder a communication within a crisis-staff. An essential attribute of crises and catastrophes is the sudden, partially surprising appearance. Since we characterize crises by a series of surprising and quick events, a requirement exists in the crisis-staff for reaction under high time-pressure. Since only few persons are able to act under these conditions and since there are psychological group-dynamic effects in addition, a relevant and rational work is possible only with a very rigid alignment. The crucial prerequisite is the structure of the staffs and accordingly trained personnel for filling the positions for the successful work of the group. Decisions and activities of the group necessitate a maximum transparency for the later analyses. The analysis of a crisis is required in all areas in order to collect experiences systematically. In addition, acting of all participants in crisis-staffs has frequently legal, ethical, or moral consequences, that are justified only with a complete set of well-documented reasons, causes and effects. A crisis-staff usually has high authorities and responsibilities in order to be able to act if danger exists. Forced requests at higher levels lead to considerable loss of time and generate no better results. The higher decision-levels or echelons do not necessarily possess better knowledge or a higher competence. Here, the positive and very effective principle of the task-oriented tactic experienced in the military area has shown many positive results. This delegation of authorities has a high value, the staff must be able to use these authorities, and it has to recognise the related responsibilities. This also requires an excellent preparation and training of the crisis staff. Wrong decisions by the crisis staff can have serious consequences. Decisions may even intensify a crisis, produce the exact opposite as intended or consequences with similarly negative effects appear like the crisis itself. Since many actions already anchor in the preparation, the intellectual and organizational preparation of the crisis-staff can produce the failure of a crisisstaff in a real situation. Therefore, the exercising of crisis-staffs is mandatory in all organisations. 58

60 The method of model/computer assisted exercises and the simulation is highly suitable to clarify, to recognize, and to practice system contexts. Repeatedly it has turned out in such applications, especially in the military area, that crisis-staffs only act successful in real crises, if these staffs have previously practiced and exercised intensively. A crisis-staff without such practice is condemned to fail. Only the practice with tools that enable a simulation of catastrophic situations and that show the consequences of wrong decisions will lead to the formation of capable and successful crisis-staffs. The set up of an exercise consists of the crisis-staff and the exercise control. The crisis-staff consists of representatives from industries and involved groups, organisations, governmental administration, etc. The control team represents peripheral groups. The control team operates the script and/or the simulation model in order to process a common picture of the development of the scenario. The simulation model has to represent the scenario in real measurement categories and elements of the reality, assigned to the virtual entities of the model world. The course of events within the exercise is a change between phases with lectures and/or discussions to the problem and phases of the simulation in a logical sequence of events. The quantitative execution of the model with a partially automatic generation of events assists and accompanies the virtual process. The purpose of a model/computer assisted exercise can be the dialogue between the participants to improve the communication among experts on peer-to-peer bases, the negotiation related to the problem or simply working together towards a common objective. The control team or the leadership can see the exercise as a teaching or training device for the participants and at the same time can collect knowledge on the crisis team in terms of system analysis, testing of hypotheses, getting behavioural data, etc. A subgroup of the control team usually represents the attacker or opponent in the exercise. It represents the functions of motivation of the attacker, reconnaissance of weak elements of the system, planning, and preparation of the attack, execution of the attack, doing eventual negotiation, and trying to secure the success. The crisis-staff has to take precautionary measures, recognise the intention and the reconnaissance of the attack, prepare for counter actions and safeguarding, recognizing the attack, prevent collateral effects, counter the attack and defend, negotiate, recover and reconstitute to normal conditions. In trying to create a reasonable model as supporting device for an exercise, many questions need answered during the initial phases of the project 59

61 work. In particular, the dimensions of the scenario, the system under investigation, the possible effort for the development of the model, the level of abstraction of the model, the degree of detail of the model, and many other issues need to be determined. EU TACOM-2006 was the first national computer-assisted exercise (CAX) on emergency management that was organized and carried out in Bulgaria. During the exercise, we demonstrated the increased capabilities of Bulgarian experts in CAX-es on emergency management. One of the prerequisites for the EU TACOM success was the close cooperation between academic institutions and the Ministry of State Policy for Disasters and Accidents (MoSPDA; see also the picture on Figure 18 at the end of the report). The participation of the COA team resulted from the implementation of the JTSAC and its application in a real CAX. Additionally, within the BAS other scientific institutions got involved in the EU TACOM SEE as the Space Research Institute, Institute of Geophysics, and the Centre for National Security and Defence. The exercise was a successful test for the Civil Security Concept developed in Bulgaria during the last 2-3 years. The Civil Security Concept seeks for the cross-point between the fight against international terrorism and traditional civil protection. EUTACOM-2006 demonstrated the viability of new national and international civil security structures such as the MoSPDA in Bulgaria and the Monitoring and Information Centre (MIC) of the EU. From operational point of view one of the main results of EUTACOM-2006 was the successful test of the newly implemented Common Emergency Communication and Information System (CECIS) Defence Requirements Review (DRR) In the spring of 2007 senior officials of the MOD, including the Minister of Defence, publicly admitted the need to review and update the standing long-term plan for the development of the armed forces of the Republic of Bulgaria, known as Plan In April 2007, all project co-directors had a number of meetings in the Ministry of Defence at the level of Deputy Minister and Deputy Chief of the General Staff, used to present the operational analysis capacity in Bulgaria, developed with the support of SfP , and to discuss possible roles of the emerging analytical community in the forthcoming defence review. 88 The detailed description of the project EU TACOM is given in Annex 2D.[8] 60

62 The growing understanding of defence decision makers on the need and the possibilities to use operational analysis, up until now led to three subprojects: First, IPP and DSC organised a Working Session on Methodological Support to a Defence Review, June The conduct of the working session was coordinated with the UMSSOFT 07 conference, which allowed for the participation of experienced operational analysts from Allied Command Transformation, Canada, Germany, Norway, and the United Kingdom (For pictures from the conferences see Figure 19 and Figure 20 at the end of the report). The session focused on methodological approaches for defence review. Presentations and discussion were under four main headings: Defining Requirements (defence objectives, ambitions, generation and selection of planning situations, deriving tasks, role of task lists, incorporating advanced operational concepts, stating capability requirements) Meeting Capability Requirements (capability models, development of options and capability assessment in relation to NATO methodology, cost/benefit perspective, aggregation of force packages across simultaneous missions) Planning under constraints (assessing planning risks, allocation of resources to missions, tasks and capability requirements, risk management and other decision-making frameworks) Other considerations (macroeconomic perspective, joint and organizational hierarchies, effectiveness and efficiency of cooperative procurement programs, public-private partnerships, private finance initiatives). On the user side, approximately twenty officers and civilians at the level of Colonel/Lieutenant Colonel took part in the session, and a Deputy Minister personally participated in three of its working meetings (See the pictures on figures 21, 22 and 23). This project contributed to the understanding of methodological opportunities and challenges among both analysts and users, as well to the definition of MOD s most pressing needs. 61

63 Figure 14: Defence Requirements Planning Loop The agreed methodology is as follows (Figure 14): Identifying, understanding and describing the security environment of the nation( This input will come into the process by intelligence/security experts on the basis of a general trend estimation of potential futures; the input will be described via the explicit formulation of planning situations) Formulating and documenting the political guidance for the process (definition of objectives, timelines, available resources; establishment of the organisation, leadership, participation, responsibilities; guidance for the definition of and decision on the selection of planning situations; definition of the level of ambition) Development, description, and agreement of a set of planning situations/ scenarios (Planning situations are the quantitative basis for the follow on calculations. A first step in the methodology was demonstrated in the working session. It shows that a reasonable set of situations with sufficient detail and structure can be generated in relatively short time) 62

64 Calculation of capability requirements (This calculation requires rigorous application of logic, reasoning and state of the art modelling as provided in the domain of operations analysis. The build up and continuity of expertise in this area is critical and at the same time a key for success of the process. It is recommended to use the NATO procedures; this provides the required and most convincing up to date standards) Assessment and calculation of constraints and conditions, budget ceilings, legacy situation, etc. as trends for future developments (The conditions for future force structures need to be defined, assessed and calculated in quantities/metrics in time steps; some political guidance is required, e.g. percentage of GNP for defence, conscript policy, etc) Definition of feasible force structure options in reference to the capability requirements (The feasibility of forces depends on the constraints and conditions; a ranking of force structure options is only possible on the basis of the accomplishment of the required capabilities for the planning situations) Identification of remaining risks (Many planning situations will not be covered sufficiently by the defined force structure options, risks will remain due to gaps in the structure; this is essential information for the feed back into the political decision process) Reporting, documentation and presentation to the political level (The presentation to the political level, the interpretation of the results is important to assure the understanding of limits and validity of the results; the complete and for each domain readable documentation is important for reproducibility, critique and communication) The group considered most essential: Transparency of the process. This implies the principal reproducibility of all calculations, the complete documentation of assumptions and data, a state of the art methodology, and a reporting of results in understandable terms to a political, military and public audience. Joint approach. The definition of the problem, the objectives, and the solution is within the political/military domain while the process and the methodology for the calculation are in the scientific/operations analysis domain. This leads to joint teams working on the above packages. 63

65 Clear definition and allocation of responsibilities. The process requires rigorous and tight control of milestones and work planning in order to meet the overall objectives and delivery dates. The agreement process should focus on the objectives and should lead to decisions in time; a pragmatic application of science methodologies has to be the basis of the work. Integration into the NATO planning process. This implies the consideration of NATO planning situations, force goals and the adaptation of the methodology for the calculation of capability requirements (JDARTS) as good as time and available expertise allows. It was proposed to follow a two-track approach: As first priority to perform a quick three-month initial implementation of this cycle in a pragmatic manner, with understanding and accepting the related deficiencies of the approach, as well as identifying important problems that cannot be solved within this time period In addition, although second priority from the user perspective, to continue the work on the force planning methodology and enhance the professional expertise in this area of operation analysis. This expertise will then be available with improved methodology and solutions in the follow-up phases of the defence review. The second sub-project followed immediately, in which the MoD tasked the COA to provide Defence planning methodology Methodologies for design and for selection of planning scenarios Design and selection of a set of planning scenarios. 89 The respective part of the report presents analysis of the environment for development of the armed forces and identified requirements towards the planning process and methods, reasons for the selection of an approach (sce- 89 The design of the methodology was greatly assessed by earlier work within SfP , presented in Todor Tagarev, Defence Policy: Scope, Main Components, and Relationships, Mejdunarodni otnoshenia /International Relations/ 1-2 (2007): , in Bulgarian, and Todor Tagarev, Tsvetomir Tsachev, and Nikolay Zhivkov, Formalizing the Optimization Problem in Long Term Capability Planning, UMSSOFT 2007; to appear in Information & Security: An International Journal 23 (2007). 64

66 nario-based, concept-led, capability-oriented planning), presents the methodology and examines key issues in its incorporation into Bulgaria s Force Management System. While this is a methodology for national defence planning, it provides for compatibility with the NATO planning process. It includes a number of novelties, and two of them deserve a special mention. In order to respond to the uncertainties and the fluid nature of the environment for development of the armed forces, the methodology deals with two levels of scenarios context scenarios, or alternative futures, and situational scenarios. The analysis of the context scenarios allows to define attributes of situational scenarios (timeframe, in which a particular situational scenario may realise, likelihood of realisation, warning time), the dynamics of their realisation and milestones in the evolution of the security environment. The second unique feature reflects a broader understanding of the term capability. The methodology deals with three types of capabilities capabilities to (1) perform assigned tasks (which are the regular usage of the term), (2) to contribute to shaping the regional security environment, and (3) for strategic adaptiveness. 90 Within the project, the team developed 5 context and 41 situational scenarios. Through rigorous analysis and selection, the team proposed that MoD incorporates 23 of these situational scenarios in the planning process. These situational scenarios are further distributed in two groups 9 main (to be used in the design of the baseline force structure) and 14 additional situational scenarios (to be used for identification of additional requirements and possible variations to the baseline fore structure). The Ministry of Defence was highly interested and continuously involved in the project (see the pictures on Figure 21 and Figure 22 at the end of this report). The report from project was quickly published by the Ministry of Defence 91 and distributed among senior personnel throughout the defence establishment and the defence planning community. More importantly, key aspects of the defence planning methodology were incorporated in the Ministerial Guidance for Actualisation of Plan and some of the lead operational analysts from the SfP team were invited to contribute to carrying out this Guidance. 90 Mr. Valeri Ratchev (described above) led the development of the methodology for design of scenarios. Dr. Tagarev developed the key considerations and the process for selection of scenarios to be further included in the planning process The treatment of the issue of selecting scenarios from a mathematical point of view is examined above. 91 Methodology and Scenarios for Defence Planning,

67 Thus, a small group of analysts conducted a short, very intensive study in direct support of the defence review (the third project). In a partial application of the defence planning methodology, the group defined main tasks, developed graduated ambition scales along defence policy s main areas and components, designed a capability partition and a library of building blocks, defined a task force for each main task, using the respective situational scenario and ambition level, and aggregated the requirements of all scenarios into a future model of Bulgaria s force structure. 93 More important than the proposed force structure might be the opportunities (the tool and the example) provided to the MOD to relate defence objectives, ambitions, force structure, resource constraints, and planning risks within a transparent decision-making process. In addition, the group generated and assessed alternatives in structuring the force on the territory of the country designed and analysed in-depth alternative command and management arrangements. 94 The report of the study was presented to MoD on January 11th, The MoD officials already expressed an intention to contract another operational analysis study in support of the identified need to enhance 96 and adapt Bulgaria s Force Management System to the envisioned radical organisational restructuring Issued by the Minister of Defence on November 17th, Led by Dr. Tagarev and Mr. Ratchev, Described by the number of infantry/mechanized battalions and companies, units for combat support and combat service support, number of main platforms in the Air Force and the Navy. This would be the model 8-10 years into the future. 94 Addressing in detail one of the major MOD concerns at this stage the creation of the socalled Integrated Ministry of Defence. 95 The report is already under publication in Bulgarian Todor Tagarev and Valeri Ratchev, Bulgarian Defence Policy and Force Development 2018 (Sofia: Military Publishing House, 2008). 96 Which in some aspects means to simplify. 97 That would provide an opportunity to utilize the capacity developed with the implementation of Working Task 5.3 of SfP that addressed the force planning and management process. Early project results were published in Todor Tagarev, Introduction to Programbased Defense Resource Management, Connections: The Quarterly Journal 5:1 (Spring- Summer 2006): (published also in Russian and in Ukrainian). 66

68 E. IMPLEMENTATION OF RESULTS The criteria of success list include eight criteria structured in three groups, relevant to project objectives: In terms of the capacity of the Centre for Operations Analysis, with focus on training and creating of a team of young scientists in Bulgaria In terms of scientific acceptance in NATO and NATO nations In terms of utilization of the COA within Bulgaria and NATO. It is difficult, may be even impossible, to provide a cost-benefit analysis in fiscal terms. The assessment of results of projects is only feasible based on quality and relatively subjective. Quantitative measurements are only possible if we are able to define a comparable basis or yardstick. We assess the value of contributions, e.g. an analysis or an exercise, only in comparison to the case in which contributions were not available. Since the contributions are available, no comparison is possible. An assessment of quality of work is only possible on peer-to-peer basis within the community of science and research. 1. Capacity The growing capacity of the project team in the area of Operations Research and CAX for CMEP allowed to finish successfully the EU-TACOM-SEE 2006 project (Terrorist Act Consequences Management in South-East Europe 2006) financed by the European Commission. In November 2006, a technological demonstration of the COA was carried out. This demonstration gave an opportunity to show the capabilities to a wider expert community and was a milestone for the development of the COA in a more business-like direction. The TACOM exercise, the work on the defence requirements review and on other smaller projects was a good opportunity for the demonstration of capabilities acquired within the frameworks of the project. In particular the Defence Requirements Review indicates a growing understanding of defence decision makers on the need and the possibilities to use operational analysis and on the existing capacity in Bulgaria. 67

69 68 2. Scientific Acceptance On academic level the introduction of CAX methodology developed by COA has been prepared for teaching in a number of Bulgarian universities (DSC, Sofia University St. Kliment Ohridski, University for National and World Economy, Academy of the Ministry of Interior). A link with the EU 6 th Framework program BIS-21++ was established and application for RISC project for 7 th Framework program is underway. According to the criteria of success, actions taken to implement results led to more papers published than expected (37 instead of 10 papers and, in addition, five monographic studies in Bulgarian on defence planning, crisis management and enterprise architecture governance were published), and more projects and for more institutions were acquired in the period. The participation in RTO panels was according to the plan. The SAS panel decided to hold its 2009 fall business meeting in Bulgaria. Additionally, SAS further considers its next symposium on Analytical Support to Defence Transformation to be organized in Bulgaria, with a possible Bulgarian leadership in the preparation of the symposium. The two conferences, which were selected as measures to indicate the level of acceptance in the international community, showed considerable interest and great number of contributions from more that a dozen of nations. The proceedings are published, and the COA and the DSC team are noticed as capable assets of the state of Bulgaria within the international community. 3. Utilization of end-results During the project, several meetings happened with end-users from Government office, MoEE, MoFA, MoD, MoSPDA and the MoI (as well as Commission for Regulation of Communications, State Agency for IT and Communications, Ministry of Health and local authorities dealing with emergency / crisis management) to ensure the implementation of end-results. At the end of the project, the teams succeeded in establishing permanent relations between the COA and the administration on conducting of Computer Assisted Exercises on Crisis / Emergency Management. In April 2007, all project directors held a series of meetings with highlevel representatives of the end-user organizations: Deputy Minister of Defence Mr. Simeon Nikolov Vice Admiral Emil Lyutskanov, First Deputy Chief of General Staff of the Bulgarian Armed Forces Deputy Minister of Interior Mr. Tsonko Kirov

70 Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Mr. Todor Churov Representatives from Ministry of Economy and Energy (MoEE) Senior experts from the Council of Ministers. At these meetings Project Directors presented main project results and discussed needs, opportunities and ways for utilization of the OA capacity. Three important steps were implemented as a consequence: MoD tasked COA and DSC to implement a project on developing a methodology for operational analysis of Bulgarian security system, based on planning scenarios COA and DSC were involved in the ongoing Strategic Defence Review, the new Plan 2015 for the development of Bulgarian Armed Forces and the new National Security Concept. One of the scientific results was directly utilized by end-users is the Long-term Capabilities-based Defence Planning Methodology. Concepts and big portions of the document were directly used in the Guidance on Actualization of Defence Reform and Modernization Plan till 2015, issued by the Minister of Defence on 16 November A Letter of Appreciation was signed by Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Todor Churov in order to establish permanent relations between COA and MFA. Thus MFA became the fourth end-user of SFP project results. Interest was expressed from MoEE to join the project as an end-user. 4. Expectations for the future In 2007 the COA was registered in the offset eligible entities list of the Ministry of Economy and Energy that will allow for participation in R&D related offset programs. The necessary documents for registration of JTSAC as professional training organization for emergency management were developed. Most importantly, all necessary documents for the application of COA for competitive bidding at NC3A are prepared. A forthcoming change in Bulgarian legislation is expected that will allow academic organizations to apply for contracts from NATO. A vision for the future is to strengthen the established research infrastructure for OA and CAX in COA as a cluster among BAS institutes, DSC, civilian universities, and non-governmental think tanks in order to serve to the security sector institutions as a change management tool. This research infrastructure for OA should integrate into the national security area and also become part of the NATO and EU network with a key regional role. 69

71 COA should continue to be commercially independent and to serve to the decision makers in Government, Parliament, and President s Office, as well as several ministries and international organizations. At the same time, COA could work with industry to provide OA and CAX expertise, especially for security issues of importance for South-Eastern Europe and the Wider Black Sea Area. All these linkages are presented on Figure 15. Parliament Governance / Costumers President Government Security Council MoD, MoFA MoI MoSPDA COA Security Sector Transformation Other Agencies, incl. in NATO and EU (EDA) Institutes of BAS Universities Defense Industry Other Industries Customers Back office Partners Implementation / Competition Figure 15: Relation of COA with other institutions in the security sector 70

72 F. CONCLUSIONS In any nation with high social and technical standards, it is essential to develop and maintain a scientific institution, which enables support of national decision-making based on the state of the art methodology and knowledge. If this is not available, the nation will have to face considerable disadvantages in the international economic competition and problems in guaranteeing the security of its people. As already discussed, we see this project as ignition for the required steps in the establishment of such an institution. The capacity building effort for the use of OA in Bulgaria generated many opportunities for improved decision making in the national administration, as well as in other nations in South East Europe. Although the developed capability needs further support, the very positive results in some projects, in particular the TACOM project and the Defence Requirements Review, show the high value of the contributions to national decision making. In more detail we share the following conclusions: It is difficult to work in a network between BAS institutes and academic institutions of MoI and MoD Defence research organizations in Bulgaria do not have management arrangements, appropriate for the conduct of or participation in research projects, and especially international research projects It is difficult to find, motivate and keep involved young scientists in the current environment in BAS The culture of using OA/ CAX requires considerable efforts for further promotion and improvement of end-users from the security sector Support from international experts and the integration into international projects is essential for the continuity of the capability The methodology of applied Operations Analysis (not only the classic mathematical Operations Research), Modelling, and Simulation should be a key element in academic curricula The existence of the established capacity can only be sustained if a sufficient funding and tasking by the end users is guarantied The capacity of a think tank institution is a high value asset in national security structures if used effectively In comparison to other defence assets, or in relation to potential wrong decisions in catastrophic situations without such an institution, the payoff for the investment is very large 71

73 A final conference and presentation of the results to NATO International Staff, NC3A, the European Defence Agency, and the Marshall Centre are essential for further development of the capacity and its promotion A permanent knowledge portal on the Internet for security related OA projects provides a suitable academic infrastructure and capability for the continuity of the work in the academic support of the security sector. Many elements of the present organization are not optimal and need to be adjusted for future challenges, in particular when competing under commercial conditions in international environment. These elements have been addressed in the teams and are understood. Difficult is the recruitment and motivation of young scientists to continue working in this kind of intellectual serving organization. The culture of OA, systems analysis, computer/model assisted exercises, modelling, simulation, or operating in virtual environments has to be developed further and needs to be promoted within the national end user domains. Based on the excellent fundamental education of young scientists, the nation of Bulgaria should further develop and maintain a competitive establishment for these activities. This would be a security asset of high value which could fill many gaps in South Eastern Europe, the wider Black Sea area as well as becoming a highly welcome contribution to similar institutions in NATO and the European Union. There is no operational analysis centre alike in the country and in most of the countries in Western Balkans and the wider Black Sea area. The built up capacity and the experience gained are of critical importance in the process of defence (security sector) institution building and the change management process in this area. The limited capacity in the region could lead to extending the research infrastructure as a regional asset to support national projects as well as crossborder studies and exercises. This capacity should further evolve as distributed research infrastructure for security projects with key elements of the infrastructure institutionalized in the Bulgarian Academy of Science. A positive result is already the practical use of the Operations Analysis capacity in support of nation-wide and regional exercises, for the defence review and the decision to establish an OA department in the Bulgarian Defence Staff. 72

74 G. ANNEXES Annex 1A. List of collaborators # Name of the participant /in alphabetical order/ Institution 1 Alexander Dimov DSC 2 Alexander Tsankov DSC 3 Alexander IPP- Udvarev BAS 4 Atanas Mitev IPP- BAS 5 Atanas D. Nachev DSC 6 Atanas IPP- Semerdjiev BAS 7 Boris Bogdanov DSC Task in the project Development and analysis of acquisition process models; software configuration at ASTRA Lab Development of C4 architecture models; M&S of C4 System operations Development of CoE infrastructure Development and update of SFP web-site Air force and air defence simulations Support and adaptation of software of OR models Operations planning considerations in the force planning process; design of situational scenarios 8 Boris Staykov IIT- BAS Multi-criteria analysis 9 Boyan Capabilities-based planning; crisis management; DSC Mednikarov security-sector capability portfolio 10 Emil Kelevedjiev IMI- Discrete optimization, dynamic programming, BAS computer modelling 11 Filip Andonov IIT- BAS Multi-criteria analysis 12 Georgi Bahchevanov DSC external collaborator 13 Georgi Dimov DSC Design of planning scenarios 14 Georgi Kirov IPP- Modelling of network-centric warfare BAS capabilities; multi-agent models 15 Georgi Penchev IPP- BAS Support and adaptation of software of OR models 16 Georgi Stankov DSC Defence acquisition management 17 Gergana Piskova DSC Modelling and analysis of the capability requirement process; network configuration at the ASTRA Lab 73

75 18 Irena Nikolova IPP- Cost models, financial reporting; organization BAS and management 19 Ivan Hristozov DSC CAX, simulations, C4 architectures 20 Ivan Ivanov IPP- BAS Computers, communications, network support 21 Ivan Sariev IPP- Enterprise Architecture Governance / Maturity BAS Assessment 22 Ivan Valkov DSC Capability models 23 Kiril Boyanov IPP- BAS Organization and management 24 Lidia Velkova DSC Macroeconomic analysis; costing 25 Lili Georgieva IPP- BAS Technical support 26 Lozan Bizov DSC Design of situational scenarios; operations planning 27 Klaus Niemeyer NOA NPD 28 Mancho Manev DSC external collaborator 29 Michel Rademaker TNO NATO country co-director 30 Nikolay Kirov IMI- Discrete and continuous dynamic systems; chaos BAS theory, numerical methods 31 Nikolay Pavlov IPP- Preparation of reports; scenario development for BAS CAX 32 Nikolay Tomov IPP- BAS Organization and management of the project 33 Nikolay Tzonkov DSC Costing; macro analysis, career models 34 Nikolay Zhivkov IMI- BAS Continuous optimization, numerical methods 35 Ognyan IMI- Kounchev BAS Mathematical models 36 Pavel Angelov DSC Macroeconomics; resource planning; career models 37 Petar Mollov DSC Required operational capabilities, portfolio modelling and analysis 38 Rossitza Russeva DSC external collaborator 39 Rumen IMI- Bogdanovski BAS Mathematical models 40 Sabi Sabev DSC Simulation game 41 Stayka Angelova IPP- BAS Technical support 42 Stoyan Avramov IPP- Establishing the CoE infrastructure; development BAS of C4 models; M&S of C4 System operations 43 Todor Tagarev DSC Project co-director 44 Tsvetan Semerdjiev IPP- BAS Development of C4 models; M&S of C4 System operations 74

76 45 Tsvetomir Tsachev IMI- BAS Project co-director Defence and force planning models; context 46 Valeri Ratchev DSC scenario development Velizar IPP- 47 PPD Shalamanov BAS 48 Venelin Georgiev DSC Analysis of alternatives; risk assessment IPP- Support and adaptation of software of OR 49 Yuri Tsenkov BAS models, final report preparation support IMI- Support and adaptation of software of OR Zlatogor BAS 50 models, software development, final report Minchev / IPPpreparation support BAS Annex 1B. Obtained advanced degree through cooperation with SfP project 1. Defended Ph.D. on Cybernetics & Robotics - Zlatogor Minchev - Generalized Nets Models and Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets Algorithms for Representations and Control of Mobile Robots in Unknown Environment, Sofia, Bulgaria, December Defended Ph.D. on Mathematics Alexander Dimov Reducing Complexity of Software Systems - Description of Software Architecture, Sofia, Bulgaria, June, Ph.D. on Telecommunications (final phase) Alexander Tsankov Operational Compatibility Between Stationary and Mobile Systems for Crisis Management, Scientific Tutor: Todor Tagarev, DSC G.S. Rakovski, Sofia, Bulgaria, January, Ph.D. on Cybernetics (final phase) - Ivan Ivanov - Methods and solutions for automatic planning and control of systems configuration for Computer Assisted exercises in Crises Management, Scientific Tutor: Velizar Shalamanov, Institute for Parallel Processing, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, C4I Department,

77 5. Ph.D. on Economical Sciences (final phase) - Irena Nikolova Research and Development of System for Planning, Management and Assessment for Scientific Projects in Crisis Management, Scientific Tutor: Velizar Shalamanov, Institute for Parallel Processing, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, C4I Department, Defended Master Thesis on National and International Security - Atanas Semerdjiev Defence and Staff College G. S. Rakovski, Sofia, Defended Master Thesis on Economics and Project Management - Yuri Tsenkov - Methods for Risk Evaluation of Technical Projects, Faculty: Infrastructure, Department: National and Regional Security, University of National and World Economy, June, Defended Master Thesis in National Security and Defence - Gergana Piskova Defence and Staff College G. S. Rakovski, Sofia, Honorary Diploma Awarded by the President of the Republic of Bulgaria for ICT Achievements in 2007 Zlatogor Minchev, Sofia, October 4, Bulgaria, Golden Sign Awarded by the Prime Minister of Republic of Bulgaria for Contribution to the Youth Innovation and Information Society Zlatogor Minchev, Sofia, December 5, Bulgaria, Special Appreciation for Participation in MSG-049 from the Chairman of the Group Zlatogor Minchev, Thales-Raytheon Systems, France, Start of postdoctoral study of Dr. Tagarev 13. Start of postdoctoral study of Dr. Shalamanov 14. Start of PhD study of Atanas Semerdjiev, Yuri Tsenkov 76

78 Annex 2A: List of publications resulting from the project (List of publications with explicit reference to SfP ) 1. [Book in Bulgarian:] Bahchevanov, G., Manev, M., Ruseva, R. Operations in Crises Response, Information Security Series, Softrade, Bizov, L. Harmonizing Strategy, Operations and Planning in Making National Security In Proceedings of G.S. Rakovski Defence and Staff College Conference, March Djounova, J., Kirov, K., and Kirov, N. Database Structure for Radiation Incidents and for Treatment of Affected People, In Proceedings of NATO ARW: Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector (Editors: Ognyan Kounchev, Rene Willems, Velizar Shalamanov and Tsvetomir Tsachev), Velingrad, Bulgaria, October 21-25, 2006, Published by IOS Press Amsterdam, NATO Science for Peace Security Series, D: Information and Communication Security, vol.12, , Georgiev, V. Analysis of Alternatives: An Efficient Tool for Managing Force Modernization Projects In: Information & Security, An International Journal, vol. 21, , Hadjitodorov, S., Tagarev, T., and Pavlov, N. Shaping Bulgaria s Defence and Security R&T Policy, In proceedings of Policy and Models for R&D Management in Support of Defence Industrial Transformation, Sofia, University of National and World Economy, 2007 (under publication). 6. Kelevedjiev, E. Computational Approach for Assessment of Critical Infrastructure in Network Systems, In Proceedings of NATO ARW: Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector (Editors: Ognyan Kounchev, Rene Willems, Velizar Shalamanov and Tsvetomir Tsachev), Published by IOS Press Amsterdam, NATO Science for Peace Security Series, D: Information and Communication Security, vol.12, ,

79 7. [Book in Bulgarian:] Manev, M., Ruseva, R., Crisis & Conflict Management, Information Security Series, Softrade, 2005; 8. Minchev, Z., Pavlov, N., Nikolova, I., Tomov, N., and Tsankov, A. Program Structure of CAX System for Emergency Management, First National Scientific-Applied Conference for Emergency Management and Population Protection, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, November 10, 2005, Published by the Centre for National Security and Defence Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, , Minchev, Z. Intelligent Scenario Development for CAX, In Proceedings of NATO ARW: Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector (Editors: Ognyan Kounchev, Rene Willems, Velizar Shalamanov and Tsvetomir Tsachev), Velingrad, Bulgaria, October 21-25, 2006, Published by IOS Press Amsterdam, NATO Science for Peace Security Series, D: Information and Communication Security, vol.12, 16-24, Minchev, Z. Utilization of M&S in CAX for Civil Security Improvement, National Conference on behalf of the Prime Minister of Republic of Bulgaria European Integration, Bulgarian Youth and Innovation & Information Society, May 18, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Minchev, Z. Intelligent System for Message Exchange in CAX for Crisis Management, Second National Scientific-Applied Conference for Emergency Management and Population Protection, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Centre for National Security and Defence Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, November 9, Shalamanov, V., Hadjitodorov, S., Tagarev, T., Avramov, S., Stoyanov, V., Geneshky, P., and Pavlov, N. Civil Security: Architectural Approach in Emergency Management Transformation, Information & Security. An International Journal, vol.17, , Shalamanov, V., Nikolova, I., and Tomov, N. Project Portfolio Management of Operational Analyses for Transformation of the Security Sector, In Proceedings of the International Workshop Private Investment Initiatives for Armaments Modernization, Sofia, Bulgaria, University of National and World Economy, ,

80 14. Shalamanov V., Tomov N., Pavlov, N., Minchev Z., Nikolova I., Semerdjiev A. The Role of Computer Assisted Exercises for Development and Experimentation of New Concepts for Decreasing the Vulnerability from Terrorism and Other Threats for the Civil Security (in Proceedings of 2005 International Conference Security Structures in the Balkans. Crisis Management, Sofia, September 14-15, Bulgaria, 70-84, Shalamanov, V. Computer Assisted Exercise Environment for Terrorist Attack Consequence Management, In Transforming Training and Experimentation through Modelling and Simulation - Meeting Proceedings RTO-MP-MSG-045, Rome, Italy, October 4-7, , Shalamanov, V. The Concept of Civil Security as a Tool for Security` Sector Integration and Regional Co-operation in the Wider Black Sea Area, In Proceedings of Establishing Security and Stability in the Wider Black Sea Area, Bansko, Bulgaria, 5-9 April, 2006, NATO Science for Peace Security, Series E: Human and Societal Dynamics, vol. 26, , Shalamanov, V. Integration of C2 and M&S Elements in CAX for Crisis Management, In Proceedings of NATO ARW: Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector (Editors: Ognyan Kounchev, Rene Willems, Velizar Shalamanov and Tsvetomir Tsachev), Velingrad, Bulgaria, October 21-25, 2006, Published by IOS Press Amsterdam, NATO Science for Peace Security Series, D: Information and Communication Security, vol.12, 50-61, Shalamanov, V Air Force Mission Capabilities Packages from Operational Analysis Perspective In: Information & Security: An International Journal, vol. 21, 69-81, Shalamanov, V. Security Sector Reform - Change Management in the Security Area, NATO Advanced Study Institute Security Sector Transformation in the Wider Black Sea Area, Bansko, Bulgaria, April 10-18, 2007 (accepted for publication). 20. Shalamanov, V. Civil Security and Crisis Management: CDE Process in Bulgaria (the Role of US, NATO, EU in SEE), In Proceedings of NATO ARW Crisis Management and Counter-terrorism in the Westerns Balkans, Slovenia, Ljubljana, April 20-21,

81 21. Shalamanov, V. Computer-Aided Dispatch A Tool for Effect-Based Operations Multinational and Interagency Operations, UMSSOFT 2007; Information & Security: An International Journal, vol. 22, , Shalamanov, V., and Pavlov, N. CAX-es and Scenario Development as a Tool for Security Concepts Experimentation The Balkans, EU and NATO, (In proceedings of Counterterrorism and Crisis Management conference 2006, Sofia September 2006, Published by Balkan Security Forum, , [Book in Bulgarian:] Shalamanov, V., Tagarev, T. et al., Methodology and Scenarios for Defence Planning, Sofia, Military Publishing House, Stankov, G. Risk as a Factor in Decision-Making, UMSSOFT 2007; to appear in Information & Security: An International Journal, vol. 23, [Book in Bulgarian:] Stoykov, M., Shalamanov, V., Kirov, G., Stoyanov, V., Ivanov, I., Tsankov, A., Integrated System for Emergency Management (Architectural Methodology), Change Management Series, Softrade, 2006; 26. Tagarev, T. Introduction to Program-Based Defence Resource Management, Connections: The Quarterly Journal, vol.5, no.1, 55-69, Spring- Summer, Tagarev, T. Defence Policy: Scope, Main Components, and Relationships, Mejdunarodni otnoshenia /International Relations/ 1-2 (2007): Tagarev, T. and Mednikarov, B. Planning of Security Sector Capabilities for Protection of Maritime Sovereignty, In Proceedings of NATO ARW: Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector (Editors: Ognyan Kounchev, Rene Willems, Velizar Shalamanov and Tsvetomir Tsachev), Velingrad, Bulgaria, October 21-25, 2006, Published by IOS Press Amsterdam, NATO Science for Peace Security Series, D: Information and Communication Security, vol.12, 72-86, [Book in Bulgarian:] Tagarev, T. and Ratchev, V. Bulgarian Defence Policy and Force Development 2018, Sofia, Military Publishing House,

82 30. Tagarev, T. and Velkova, L. Models of Bulgaria s Defence Policy Comparative Macroperspective, Military Journal vol. 114, no. 5, , Tagarev, T. and Velkova, L. Decision-making on Future Force Structure from a Comparative Macro Perspective, UMSSOFT 2007; to appear in Information & Security: An International Journal, vol. 23, Tagarev, T., Stankov, G., Bizov, L., and Natchev, A. A framework methodology to support the selection of a multipurpose fighter, Information & Security, An International Journal, vol.21, 82-91, Tagarev, T. and Stankov, G. Interactive Simulations in Support of Decision Making on Defence Resource Allocation, UMSSOFT 2007; to appear in Information & Security: An International Journal, vol. 23, Tagarev, T. Will the Bulgarian Armed Forces Develop Information Operations Capabilities?, 2007 Annual Scientific Proceedings of the National Security and Defence Faculty, Sofia, G.S. Rakovski Defence and Staff College, Tornev, G. Modelling Support to Battlespace Awareness, UMSSOFT 2007; Information & Security: An International Journal, vol. 22, , Tsachev, T. Dynamic Evacuation Models, In Proceedings of NATO ARW: Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector (Editors: Ognyan Kounchev, Rene Willems, Velizar Shalamanov and Tsvetomir Tsachev), Velingrad, Bulgaria, October 21-25, 2006, Published by IOS Press Amsterdam, NATO Science for Peace Security Series, D: Information and Communication Security, vol.12, , Tsachev, Ts., Zhivkov, N., and Tagarev, T. Formalizing the Optimization Problem in Long Term Capability Planning, UMSSOFT 2007; to appear in Information & Security: An International Journal, vol. 23, Tsankov, A. Efficient Utilization of Communication Resources for Crisis Management via Introducing Quality of Services (QoS) of Network Traffic, In Proceedings of NATO ARW: Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector (Editors: Ognyan Kounchev, Rene Willems, Velizar Shalamanov and Tsvetomir Tsachev), Published by IOS Press Amsterdam, NATO Science for Peace Security Series, D: Information and Communication Security, vol.12, ,

83 39. Bizov, L. Scenarios in a Rational Approach Towards Planning in Uncertain Times, to appear in Information & Security: An International Journal vol. 23, Dimov, A., Stankov, G. and Tagarev, T. Using Architectural Models to Identify Opportunities for Improvement of Acquisition Management, UMSSOFT 2007; to appear in Information & Security: An International Journal, vol. 23, Mednikarov, B. and Kalinov, K. An Alternative of the System Approach to Functional Aspects Analysis of the Maritime Crisis Management System, UMSSOFT 2007; Information & Security: An International Journal 22 (2007): Niemeyer, K., Shalamanov, V., Tagarev, T. Institutionalizing Operations Analysis for Security and Defense in Bulgaria, Connections: The Quarterly Journal, vol. 7, no. 2, Summer under print 43 Georgiev, V. Managing Risk in Force Development Programs, UMSSOFT 2007; to appear in Information & Security: An International Journal, vol. 23,

84 Annex 2B: List of publications in reference to the project 1. Ivanov, I., Tsankov, A., Tomov, N. Architecture of CAX System for Simulation of Emergencies, Scientific Support of the Security Sector Transformation, Centre for National Security & Defence Research Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Academic Publishing House prof. Marin Drinov, Sofia, Bulgaria, , Ivanova, P. and Tagarev, T. Multi-Agent Based Modelling of Critical Infrastructure, Military Journal, vol. 113, no.1, , Niemeyer, K. Simulation of Critical Infrastructures, Information & Security: An International Journal, vol.17, , Niemeyer, K. A Contribution to Model Theory, In Proceedings of NATO ARW: Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector (Editors: Ognyan Kounchev, Rene Willems, Velizar Shalamanov and Tsvetomir Tsachev), Velingrad, Bulgaria, October 21-25, 2006, Published by IOS Press Amsterdam, NATO Science for Peace Security Series, D: Information and Communication Security, vol.12, 25-40, Shalamanov, V. and Avramov, S. Ruggedized Commercial IT Modules for Field C2 Posts in Coalition Operations and Emergencies, Information & Security. An International Journal, vol.16, , Shalamanov, V. Problems in the Development of the System for Population and Infrastructure Protection in Emergencies, First National Scientific-Applied Conference for Emergency Management and Population Protection, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, November 10, 2005, Published by Centre for National Security and Defence Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, 55-64, Shalamanov, V. Defence Management and Civil Society Interaction and Co-Operation In Defence Institution Building, A Sourcebook in Support of the Partnership Action Plan (PAP-DIB), Vienna & Geneva, September, ,

85 8. Rademaker, M. Technology Trends and Developments Approaches and Use in Defence Planning, In Proceedings of NATO ARW: Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector (Editors: Ognyan Kounchev, Rene Willems, Velizar Shalamanov and Tsvetomir Tsachev), Velingrad, Bulgaria, October 21-25, 2006, Published by IOS Press Amsterdam, NATO Science for Peace Security Series, D: Information and Communication Security, vol.12, 41-49, Tagarev, T. and Pavlov, N. Methodology for Critical Infrastructure Classification and Strategy Development for its Protection, First National Scientific-Applied Conference for Emergency Management and Population Protection, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, November 10, 2005, Published by Centre for National Security and Defence Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, , Tagarev, T., Capabilities-Based Planning for Security Sector Transformation, NATO Advanced Study Institute Security Sector Transformation in the Wider Black Sea Area, Bansko, Bulgaria, April 10-18, 2007, under publication by IOS Press, Amsterdam, in the NATO Science for Peace Security Series. 11. Shalamanov, V. Science, Technology, Transformation in NATO Framework: Introductory Remarks from NATO Science Committee HSD Advisory Panel, In Proceedings of NATO ARW: Bulgarian Integration in to Europe and NATO: Issues of Science Policy and Research Evaluation Practice (Editor: Robert Crangle), Pamporovo, Bulgaria, May, 2005, Published by IOS Press Amsterdam, NATO Science for Peace Security Series E: Human and Societal Dynamics, vol. 8, 24-34,

86 Annex 2C: List of presentations resulting from the project: 1. Djounova, J., Kirov, K. and Kirov, N. Database Structure for Radiation Incidents and for Treatment of Affected People, NATO ARW Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector, Velingrad, Bulgaria, October 21-25, Kelevedjiev, E. and Minchev, Z. Management of Network Resource Systems with Applications to Critical Infrastructure Assessment presentation at the Workshop Mathematics for Public Security, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria, April 7, Minchev, Z. Pavlov, N., Nikolova, I., Tomov, N., and Tsankov, A. Program Structure of CAX System for Emergency Management, First National Scientific-Applied Conference for Emergency Management and Population Protection, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, November 10, Minchev, Z. Decision Support Systems for Crisis Management in CAX, MSG-049& NIAG SG98 Meeting, Galileo Avionica, Turin, Italy, November 06-09, Minchev, Z. Modelling and Simulation with SCIP and PowerSim Studio, MSG-049& NIAG SG98 Meeting, Galileo Avionica, Turin, Italy, November 06-09, Minchev, Z. M&S for Civil Emergency Planning in the Context of Defence Against Terrorism DSS for the Scenario Simulation, MSG-049& NIAG SG98 Meeting, Thales-Raytheon Systems, Paris, Massy, France, January 23-26, Minchev, Z. M&S for Civil Emergency Planning in the Context of Defence Against Terrorism - Status Report, MSG-049 Meeting, Thales- Raytheon Systems, Paris, Massy, France, March 26-30, Minchev, Z. M&S in Support of SSR/Civil Security Operations CAX Prospective, NATO Advanced Study Institute Security Sector Transformation in the Wider Black Sea Area, Bansko, Bulgaria, April 10-18,

87 86 9. Minchev, Z. Utilization of M&S in CAX for Civil Security Improvement, National Conference on behalf of the Prime Minister of Republic of Bulgaria European Integration, Bulgarian Youth and Innovation & Information Society, May 18, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Minchev, Z. Environment Data Representation (Training Session, Exercise preparation phase), MSG-049 Meeting, Thales-Raytheon Systems, Paris, Massy, France, September 5-8, Minchev, Z. Risk Analysis on Strategic Level (Planning session, Decision Support Aids), MSG-049 Meeting, Thales-Raytheon Systems, Paris, Massy, France, September 5-8, Minchev, Z. ESRI ArcGIS - Environment Data Preparation (Training Session, Exercise preparation phase), MSG-049 Demo Day, Thales- Raytheon Systems, Paris, Massy, France, September 25, Minchev, Z. I-SCIP, POWERSIM - Risk Analysis on Strategic Level (Planning session, Decision Support Aids), MSG-049 Demo Day, Thales-Raytheon Systems, Paris, Massy, France, September 25, Minchev, Z., and Tsenkov, Y. Joint Training Simulation & Analysis Centre Academic RI for Civil-Military Cooperative CAX (Architectural, Technical, M&S Aspects), Ljubljana, Slovenia, International Week of Simulations 07, November 12-16, Niemeyer, K., Minchev, Z., and Shalamanov, V. EU TACOM SEE 2006 (Lessons Learned, CAX/MAX), EU TACOM SEE 2006 LL Conference, Nesebar, Bulgaria, September 18, Pavlov, N. Developing a Civil-Security Concept: Lessons Learned from the TACOM Exercise, NATO Advanced Study Institute Security Sector Transformation in the Wider Black Sea Area, Bansko, Bulgaria, April 10-18, Shalamanov, V., T. Semerdjiev, A. Semerdjiev. Architecture of Intelligence Fusion Systems C 4 I Support, SMi Military Data Fusion Conference CD Proceedings, September 28-29, Hatton, London, Shalamanov, V., Tomov N., Pavlov N., Nikolova I. The Role of Computer Assisted Exercises as a Tool for Concept Development and Experimentation in Bulgarian Navy Transformation, AFCEA International Conference The Bulgarian Navy Transformation and Modernization in the Context of Black Sea Security, Sunny Day Resort, Bulgaria, 2005.

88 19. Shalamanov, V. NATO S Black Sea Region Security: Opportunities for Cooperation Working Plan of Working Group 4: Civil Protection, International Conference NATO s Black Sea Region Security: Opportunity for Cooperation, organized by the European Center for Security Studies G.C.Marshall, Hotel Hilton, Sofia, Bulgaria, June 20-24, Shalamanov, V., Semerdjiev, T. Use of Commercial IT in CDE/ATD for Network Enabled Capabilities to Support Security Sector Transformation report presented by Ivan Ivanov at the international conference CITMO-2005 Information Technology and Terrorism: The Impact of Emerging Commercial Capabilities, Plovdiv, Bulgaria, June, 15-17, Shalamanov, V. Academic Support to Security Sector Transformation, Smi Second Annual Conference on NATO Enlargement, Hotel Sheraton, Sofia, November, Shalamanov, V Air Forces Mission Capabilities Packages Operational Analysis, presentation at the International Conference The Bulgarian Air Force Challenges and prospects, Plovdiv, Bulgaria, March 14-15, Shalamanov, V. Civil Security as a Tool for Security Sector Integration and Regional Cooperation in WBSA Based on Civil Society Initiatives presentation (to be published) at NATO ARW Establishing Security and Stability in the Wider Black Sea Area: The Role of New Democracies, Bulgaria, Bansko, 5-9 April Shalamanov, V., Niemeyer, K., and Rademaker, M.: International conference The Atlantic Community in the 21 st century: The Power of Values and the Value of Power, organized by the Atlantic Club of Bulgaria, Sofia, April 4-5, Shalamanov, V. Regional Joint Training Simulation and Analysis Centre for Black Sea Emergency Management presentation at the International Conference Challenges and Developments in Black sea Security the Naval Dimension, Varna, April 26-27, Shalamanov, V. Crisis management: Prevention, Response, Readiness and Recovery, Black Sea Forum Summit, June 4-6, Bucharest, Romania,

89 Shalamanov, V. and Nikolova, I. The Role of Research in Security Sector Transformation, NATO ARW Road Map for Evaluation of Scientific Research Programmes, Borovetz, Bulgaria, June 9-14, Shalamanov, V. Presentation at the RTA 4th NATO Modelling & Simulation Group MSG-049 meeting Modelling and Simulation (M&S) System for Emergency Response Planning and Training, Military Technical Academy, Bucharest, Romania, August 29-30, Shalamanov, V. Computer Assisted Exercise Environment for Terrorist Attack Consequence Management, In Transforming Training and Experimentation through Modelling and Simulation RTO MSG-045 Meeting, Rome, Italy, October 4-7, Shalamanov V. NATO Integration and Development of the Integrated Security Sector (Bulgarian Experience), Adriatic Charter Conference, September 21-23, Tirana, Albania, Shalamanov, V. Crisis Management CAX in Integrated Security Sector, Jubilee International Conference 60 Years Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria, July 6-8, Shalamanov, V. Centre of Excellence in Operational Analysis, Experience and Perspectives for Cooperation with Industry, Ministry of Defence, Sofia, Bulgaria, November 28, Tagarev, T. and Mollov, P. Capabilities and Contribution of the Armed Forces to Homeland/Societal Security, International Conference Vulnerability and Security in the New Age, Sofia, Bulgaria, February, 22-23, Tagarev, T. Integrated Defence Planning: From National Security Policy to Force Planning, PAP-DIB Conference, Tbilisi, Georgia, April 25-28, Tagarev, T. Force Planning: NATO Response Force and the New Members, 9th International Conference Security and Defence Policy: The Challenges of the New Millennium, Sofia, Bulgaria, July 7-8, Tomov, N. Joint Training Simulation and Analyses Centre as Computer-Assisted Exercise Environment for Crises Management, MSG-049 Workshop Modelling and Simulation System for Emergency Response Planning and Training, Ministry of Defence, Prague, Czech Republic, June 2006.

90 37. Tomov, N. Use of Low Cost M&S Tools as Supplementary Approach in New NATO Countries, First NATO Joint Computer Assisted Exercise Forum (CAX 06), NATO s Joint Warfare Centre, Stavanger, Norway, September, Tomov, N., and Minchev, Z. Joint Training Simulation and Analyses Centre for Civil-Military Cooperation in Crises Management, International Seminar in M&S, Charaliza, Bulgaria, October 17-20, Tsachev, Ts. A Dynamic Evacuation Model, International Workshop Mathematics for Public Security, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria, April 7, Tsachev, Ts. Mathematical Models for Force Planning, International Workshop The Mathematics of Public Security - 2, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria, November 16-17, Tsenkov, Y. Joint Training Simulation and Analysis Centre for Civil- Military Co-operation in Crises Management, Second NATO Joint CAX Forum, Budgoszcz, Poland, September 11-14, Tsankov, A. JTSAC Communication Infrastructure, MSG-049 Technology Demonstration of RI for EMS & CAX JTSAC, Sofia, Bulgaria, November 8, Zhivkov, N. Two Models for Decision Making Support in CAX, NATO ARW Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector, Velingrad, Bulgaria, October 21-25, Georgiev, V. Managing Risk in Force Development Programs, First International Conference: Using Models and Simulations in Support of Force Transformation (UMSSOFT), Defence & Staff College G.S. Rakovski, Sofia, Bulgaria, June,

91 Annex 2D: List of technical reports of projects 1. Analysis of operational effectiveness of a set of field C2 modules for emergency management a project financed by the Standing Government Committee for Protection of the Population against Natural Disasters, Emergencies and Catastrophes (SGCPPNDEC), (June-December 2004), Project Director: Prof. Tsvetan Semerdjiev, IPP-BAS (project budget Euro); 2. White Paper on Civil Protection - a project financed by the Standing Government Committee for Protection of the Population against Natural Disasters, Emergencies and Catastrophes (SGCPPNDEC), (June-December 2004), Project Director: Dr. Velizar Shalamanov, CNSDR-BAS (project budget Euro); 3. Analysis and Adaptation of Models from NATO C3 Agency and EU for Assessment, Decision-Support and Planning of Computer-Assisted Exercises on Emergency Management - a project financed by the Standing Government Committee for Protection of the Population against Natural Disasters, Emergencies and Catastrophes (SGCPPNDEC), (June- December 2005), Project Director: Dr. Velizar Shalamanov, IPP-BAS (project budget Euro); 4. Architecture for integration of the information systems for control in crisis situations- stationary and on the field a project financed by SGCPPNDEC, (June December 2005), Project Director: Dsc. Tsvetan Semerdjiev, IPP-BAS (project budget Euro); 5. Methodology for Modelling and Analysis of Critical Infrastructure, Identification of Interdependencies, Evaluation of Vulnerabilities and Risks and Planning of Capabilities for Protection, (Science project # EC08 to Working Program for 2005), financed by SGCPPNDEC, 2005), Project Director: Dr. Todor Tagarev, CNSDR-BAS (project budget Euro); 6. Methodology for Analysis and Protection of Critical Information Infrastructure a project financed by the State Agency for Communication and Information Technologies (October 2005 January 2006), Project Director: Dr. Velizar Shalamanov, CNSDR-BAS (project budget Euro); 90

92 7. The Shift from National to Civil/Societal Security: Towards Effective Transformation of the Security Sector, project financed by Bulgaria s National Science Fund under contract VU-1037/05 ( ), Project Director: Dr. Todor Tagarev, DSC G.S. Rakovski (project budget Euro); 8. EU TACOM-SEE 2006 Terrorist Act Consequences Management exercise project financed by the European Commission, DG Environment (December 2005 December 2006), CAX component, Project Director: Dr. Velizar Shalamanov, IPP-BAS (project budget Euro); 9. Joint Training Simulation & Analysis Centre project financed by the Ministry of State Policy for Disasters and Accidents (January-December 2006), Project Director: Dr. Velizar Shalamanov, IPP-BAS (project budget Euro); 10. National Security Strategy Development, financed by the Bulgarian Council of Ministers (April-December 2007), National Project Director Prof. Dimitar Yontchev (Project Director for IPP-BAS participation in OA support: Dr. Velizar Shalamanov), IPP-BAS; 11. Operational analysis of the national security and defence system, operational analysis of the organizational practices based on set of defence planning scenarios - a project financed by the Ministry of Defence of Republic of Bulgaria (May November 2007), Project Director: Dr. Velizar Shalamanov, IPP-BAS (project budget Euro); 12. Simulation (Role) Game for the Ukrainian MOD: Decision-making in Force development and Budget Planning, shared financing by the Bulgarian and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, the NATO Liaison Office in Kyiv, and DCAF ongoing project, Project Director: Todor Tagarev, DSC G.S. Rakovski ; 13. Modelling and Simulation in Emergency Response Planning and Training, NATO RTO MSG-049, , Project Director: Dr. Zlatogor Minchev, IPP-BAS. 91

93 Annex 3: Complete Inventory Record Inventory Label No. Property Item Manufacturer Model Number Serial Number Date of Purchase Cost (EUR 1 ) Location A-1041 Workstation Hyundai Exclusive H IPP r.116a A tft monitor Hyundai B70A B70ASAS356K IPP r.116a A-1043 Workstation Hyundai Exclusive H IPP r.116a A tft monitor Hyundai B70A B70ASAS356K IPP r.116a HEWLETT- A-1050 Laser printer HP1020 CNCKS SRI r.212 PACKARD A-1045 UPS MGE NOVA 600AVR ANOF20BC IPPr.116b HP A-1048 Workstation COMPAQ DX6120MT CZC5240ZFT IPPr.116b HP A tft monitor HP 1755 CNK517ONV IPPr.116b COMPAQ A-1098 Workstation HP COMPAQ DX6120MT CZC5240ZFB SRI r.212 A tft monitor HP COMPAQ HP 1755 CNK5170N8X SRI r.212 A-1099 UPS MGE NOVA 600AVR ANOF20DA SRI r.212 A-1049 Software Microsoft Project2003 X SRI r.212 A-1052 Software ESRI Software ESOES Services Ltd. A-1051 TELESYS ARCVIEW9.1/ ARCGIS9 NOD32-10 licenses, Win RAR, Google Earth Custom communications rack IPP R.116b IPP IPP HALL2 92

94 A-1053 A-1054 Server A-1059 Server A-1055 Monitor A-1056 Monitor A-1057 Monitor A-1058 Monitor A-1075 Workstation A-1047 Workstation HEWLETT- PACKARD HEWLETT- PACKARD HEWLETT- PACKARD HEWLETT- PACKARD HEWLETT- PACKARD HEWLETT- PACKARD HEWLETT- PACKARD HEWLETT- PACKARD A-1077 Workstation DELL A-1085 Workstation DELL A-1081 workstation DELL A-1079 Workstation DELL Custom communications rack ProLiant ML110 CZCD70448SN ProLiant ML110 HPL1940T CNC6422G70 HPL1940T CNC6422GXJ HPL1706 CNT6460HG4 HPL1706 CNT6460HD4 XW4300 CZC70738VR XW4300 CZC70738VM OptiPlex GX280SMT1 OptiPlex GX280SMT2 OptiPlex GX280SMT3 OptiPlex GX280SMT IPP HALL IPP- HALL2 IPP- HALL2 IPP- HALL2 IPP- HALL2 IPP- HALL2 IPP- HALL2 IPP- HALL2 IPP- HALL2 9PX7Q1J IMI r.406 FPX7Q1J IMI r.418 HNX7Q1J IMI r.416 4NX7Q1J IMI r.416 A-1078 CRT monitor DELL DELL 783p IMI r.406 A-1082 CRT monitor DELL DELL 783p IMI r.416 A-1086 CRT monitor DELL DELL 783p IMI r.416 A-1084 CRT monitor DELL DELL 783p IMI r

95 A1076 Printer DELL DELL1700 CJ IMI r.406 A-1083 Scaner HP Hp3970 CN55SA20DW IMI r x USB Flash 1GB A-1087 Workstation DELL Dell Optiplex GX620 Minitower ;501;502;503 ;051; personal 71Y2H2J IMI r.424 A-1088 Laptop DELL Dell Latitude D510 84QSG2J IMI r.424 A-1089 Printer DELL DELL 1700N 7FHD IMI r.418 A-1090 CRT monitor DELL DELL M783P 17 0M IMI r x 512 MB RAM Module A-1026 Printer Ethernet Switch (16- ports 10Base- T/100Base-TX A-1027 Laser printer HP A-1028 DELL TS512MDL x28.28 = IMI r.424 CANYON CN-D16P2 N2B IMI r.422 Konica Minolta Magicolor 2430DL (includes toner value kit) 1320N (includes cartridge for 6,000 pages) A-302 CNHW5BBJ7J r.419 Multimedia projector Epson EMP-S3 (includes a spare lamp) V11H179040GE A-302 UPS MGE NOVA 600AVR AN0F A-302 UPS MGE NOVA 600AVR AN0F r.417 UPS MGE NOVA 1100AVR AN3F360BO r.419 UPS MGE NOVA 1100AVR AN3F360AD A-302 А-1029 Server ProSoft Athlon 64 X UKP-1 А-1030 Router Allied Telesyn AR-410S 106PS297AA UKP-1 94

96 А-1031 Laser Printer Canon PC-D320 EZZ UKP-1 А-1032 Laser Printer HP Laser Jet 1320 CNMYB UKP-1 А-1033 А-1034 Work Station w/ 2 Monitors Work Station w/ 2 Monitors ProSoft Athlon 64 X UKP-1 ProSoft Athlon 64 X А-1035 Rack ESTAP 36U 2U mount shelf UKP-1 Work Station А-1036 w/ Monitor ProSoft Athlon 64 X UKP-1 А-1037 Work Station ProSoft Athlon 64 X UKP-1 w/ Monitor А-1038 Scanner Canon LIDE 500F UZL A-302 Total: UKP-1 1 monitor in A-302 Subtotal for co-directors Velizar Shalamanov Institute of Parallel Processing of Information BAS Tsvetomir Tsachev Institute of Mathematics and Informatics BAS Todor Tagarev Defense Staff College

97 Annex 4: Criteria of success Project number: SfP Report date: The Project is in the year 3 Criteria for Success as approved with the first Grant Letter on: % 1) If at the end of the project 10 papers to issues of the project objectives were accepted in international magazines and / or conference proceedings 15% 2) If at the end of project 5 young scientists were able to get on the short list of NC3A or 2 were hired by NC3A 10% Project short title: OR Support to Transformation Duration of the Project 1 : Criteria for Success Achievements as at (changes should be reflected here) More than 30 papers to issues of the project objectives were accepted in international magazines and / or conference proceedings (see Annex 2 A) No applications, because no suitable vacancies appeared % 15% 0% 3) If at the 1st OR conference in Bulgaria either 20 international scientists or from 6 NATO / Partner nations participate 4) If at the 2nd OR conference in Bulgaria either 40 international scientists or from 12 NATO / Partner nations participate 5) If by the end of the project CoE participates in 3 studies / analyses of the NATO RTO SAS or NMSG 6) If at the end of the project CoE is tasked to conduct relevant analyses / exercises by 3 Bulgarian Security Sector organizations 10% 10% 5% 20% 7) If at the end of the project 5 relevant analyses / exercises were tasked to the CoE by the Bulgaria tasking 20% organizations 8) If at the end of the project the CoE was able to win 2 projects in the bidding process by NC3A 10% NATO ARW on OA methodology in Velingrad (2006) sponsored by NATO Science committee. 27 international scientists participated and 12 nations were represented. UMSSOFT on OA applications conference in Sofia (2007) sponsored by Bulgarian MoD. Over 100 participants, including 26 international scientists, and 12 nations were represented Members of the teams participate at MSG-049 / SG-098 and at SAS panel. Six projects with 5 different end users one from Council of Ministers Security Council of Prime Minister (Annex 2D[10]), two from Standing Government Committee for Protection of Population (Annex 2D[2,3]), one from MoSPDA (Annex 2D[9]), one from MoD (Annex 2D[11]), one from State Agency IT and Comms were tasked (Annex 2D[6]) See above and Annex 2D. In this sense, the EU TACOM project is considered as a successful acquisition and one project from Ukrainian MoD, supported by NATO TOTAL : 100% TOTAL 4 : 85% 1 Give month/year when the project started and expected ending date; 2 Please underline the appropriate year; 3 Choose the appropriate date and complete the year; 4 At the end of the Project, the TOTAL should be 100% if all criteria were successfully met. 10% 10% 5% 20% 20% 5% 96

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