An Overview of Department of Energy s Grid Modernization Initiative and its Multi-Year Program Plan

Transcription

1 An Overview of Department of Energy s Grid Modernization Initiative and its Multi-Year Program Plan Michael Kintner-Meyer Pacific Northwest National Laboratory PSC of Wisconsin PNNL, March 2018 February March 26, 1,

2 The Grid of the Future More distributed, two-way flow, active customers February 26,

3 DOE s Vision and Plan Accelerate grid modernization with Federal support Resilient Reliable Grid Modernization Initiative Secure Grid Modernization Initiative (GMI) Grid Modernization Multi-Year Program Plan Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium (GMLC) Grid Modernization Lab Call Sustainable Affordable Flexible February 26,

4 Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium National Labs working together as a system Security and Resilience Sensing and Measurement 87 projects, $220M over 3 years February 26,

5 Devices and Integrated Systems New services from emerging grid technologies Expected Outcomes Develop new grid interface devices to increase ability to provide grid services and utilization Develop common interoperability and interconnection standards and test procedures for industry / vendor community Validate secure and reliable grid operation with high levels of variable generation at multiple scales Current Projects Develop advanced storage systems, power electronics, and other grid devices; Create a single network of Laboratory and academic testing and validation facilities; Develop common standards and test procedures; Publish a library of device models for emerging grid components; and Conduct multi-scale system integration and testing February 26,

6 Sensing and Measurement Strategies for complete grid system visibility Expected Outcomes Advance and integrate novel, low-cost sensors to provide system visibility Incorporate new data streams (e.g. weather) Develop real-time data management and data exchange frameworks that enable data analytics Develop next-generation sensors that are accurate through disturbances to enable closed-loop controls and improved system resilience Current Projects Develop a national strategy for achieving full electric system observability; Reduce costs and improve performance of sensors for all parts of the grid (devices, distribution, bulk); Apply advanced multi-scale data analytics and machine learning techniques to the grid; and Incorporate wind/solar forecast data into grid operations. February 26,

7 System Operations and Control Methods to enhance reliability, asset utilization Expected Outcomes Architecture, algorithms, and control frameworks for a clean, resilient and secure grid Advanced operations software platform for predictive operations & real-time adaptive control New power flow control device hardware and concepts Fundamental knowledge for new control paradigms Current Projects Develop grid architecture and control theory, particularly for highly distributed systems; Develop coordinated system controls across multiple time and space scales (EMS/DMS/BMS); Create an open-source platform and testbed for advanced distribution management; and Demonstrate advanced control technologies in several regional use cases Conventional controls Distributed controls February 26,

8 Planning and Design Tools New tools to aid deployment of smarter grids Expected Outcomes Incorporate uncertainty and system dynamics into planning tools to accurately capture effects of renewable generation Computational tools, methods and libraries that enable 1000x improvements in performance for analysis and design Couple grid transmission, distribution, and communications models to understand crossdomain effects Current Projects Develop multi-scale production cost models with faster mathematical solvers; Integrate transmission, distribution and communication planning models; and Explore new approaches for load modeling using available sensor data. Interconnect Feeder February 26,

9 Security and Resilience Improve ability to protect and recover grid function Expected Outcomes Holistic grid security and resilience, from devices to micro-grids to systems Inherent security designed into components and systems, not security as an afterthought Security and resilience addressed throughout system lifecycle including legacy and emerging technologies Current Projects Threat detection and response with data analytics; Cyber security approaches for renewables, DER and smart inverters; Distribution system restoration tools for natural disaster recovery; and Tools for improved outage forecasting from tropical cyclones and other weather events. February 26,

10 Institutional Support Analysis to inform stakeholder decisions Expected Outcomes Accelerated policy innovation due to enhanced State and Regional technical assistance States adopt changes to their regulatory model that better align utility interests with grid modernization and/or clean energy policy goals Methods for valuation of DER technologies and services are defined and clearly understood Current Projects Define quantitative metrics for assessment of grid modernization progress; Develop new tools to support distribution system decision making; Engage stakeholders in determining how to best value DER and services they provide; and Assess potential future electric utility regulations. February 26,

11 Current Regional Projects Solving specific challenges of grid modernization February 26,

12 Regional Workshops Stakeholder workshops held to review MYPP, identify priority grid modernization needs Austin, TX - March Boston, MA April Seattle, WA April Minneapolis, MN May Atlanta, GA May Palo Alto, CA June attendees from industry, academic, non-profit sector Feedback to be incorporated into revision of MYPP, future projects February 26, February 26,

13 For More Information Get Involved with Grid Modernization Contact for updates and funding opportunities. Thank you! February 26,

14 Grid Modernization: Metrics Analysis Project Michael Kintner-Meyer (PNNL) Wisconsin, March 1, 2018 PNNL-SA /26/2018 February March 26, 1,

15 GMLC 1.1: Metrics Analysis High Level Summary Project Objectives Work directly with strategic stakeholders to confirm the usefulness of new and enhanced existing metrics that will guide grid modernization efforts to maintain and improve: Reliability, Resilience, Flexibility, Sustainability, Affordability, and Security. Value Proposition Ensuring that all stakeholders understand how grid modernization investments will affect and benefit them Audiences: grid modernization technology developers and investors; utility and ISO technology adopters or sponsors; federal, state, and municipal regulatory or oversight authorities; and electricity consumers (i.e., the ratepayers) Expected Outcomes Definition, Validation, and Adoption of metrics and analysis approaches by leading industry stakeholders and regional partners Better alignment of DOE R&D priorities with stakeholder and public-interest objectives 2/26/ February 26,

16 Populate GMLC 1.1: Metrics Analysis Accomplishments to Date Reliability New metrics for distribution that capture the economic cost of interruptions to customers New metrics for system impacts using North American Electric Reliability Corporation transmission/generation availability data Approach and tool for and demonstration of probabilistic enhancement of existing transmission planning metrics Lead: Joe Eto (LBNL) Value: new metrics for reliability value-based planning and bulk power system assessment Resilience Characterize Threats Determine Level of Disruption Define System & Resilience Metrics Define & Apply System Models Create Define Resilience Goals Calculate Consequence Evaluate Resilience Improvements Lead: Eric Vugrin (SNL) Value: create new metrics/process for resilience investm. Analysis Process Results Next steps: new metrics/processes for: - NERC State of Reliability report - transmission planning Next steps: Validate with New Orleans 2/26/ February 26,

17 GMLC 1.1: Metrics Analysis Accomplishments to Date Flexibility Lead: Tom Edmunds(LLNL) Value: Develop and demonstrate usefulness of new flexibility metrics Developed large set of candidate metrics that represent network properties of flexibility and lack of flexibility, engaging stakeholders to identify most useful metrics Lagging indicators Requires statistical analysis of market and grid conditions to reveal curtailments, loss of load, or other economic impacts caused by insufficient flexibility. Leading indicators Requires production cost simulations with weather and other uncertainties to design for sufficient flexibility. Use production cost models to examine tradeoffs between different sources of flexibility. Sustainability Lead: Garvin Heath (NREL) Value: Identify needed improvements to GHG reporting Ability of federal greenhouse gas data products to capture changes in electric-sector CO 2 emissions that might result from future grid modernization varies, depending on coverage of certain energy sources anticipated to grow. EIA: AEO EPA: egrid EIA: MER EPA: GHGRP Next steps: Work with CAISO, ERCOT to adopt flexibility metrics Next steps: Assess usefulness and availability of data for impacts on water resources 2/26/ February 26,

18 Increasing Affordability GMLC 1.1: Metrics Analysis Accomplishments to Date Affordability Cost Burden Metrics (emerging) Customer electricity cost burden Electricity affordability gap Affordability gap headcount Temporal indices of these metrics Lead: Dave Anderson (PNNL) Value: Establish new metrics based on cost burden to consumers Security Lead: Steve Folga (ANL) Value: Spur electric industry adoption of DHS Protective Measures Indices (i.e., security metrics) Survey/analysis Process Results Decreasing Affordability Next steps: Validating metrics with Regional Partners (Alaska, New Orleans) Next steps: Validate PMI Approach with ComED and Idaho Falls 2/26/ February 26,

19 Landscape of Existing and Proposed Metrics Reliability Distribution Reliability Existing metrics Existing (data needed) Proposed Metrics Proposed Data Needed Customers interrupted (by type of SAIFI Total customers served customer) Interruption Cost Characteristics of interruptions by SAIDI customer type (e.g., duration, start time) CAIDI Customer interruption duration CAIFI CTAIDI ASAI MAIFI Customer hours service availability Customer service hours demanded Total customer momentary interruptions CEMI CEMSMI CI CMI ASIFI ASIDI CELID SARI COR DELI DEMI ACOD ACSI TACS FOHMY Total customers experiencing more than n sustained outages Total customers experiencing more than n momentary interruptions Customers interrupted Customer minutes interrupted Total connected kva of load interrupted Total connected kva served total number of customers that have experienced more than eight interruptions in a single reporting year Circuit outage number and duration number of correct operations total number of operations commanded total distribution equipment experiencing long outages length of interruption (by equipment type) Transmission circuit outage and duration total amount of equipment that have more than N # of interruptions in a single year Outages per hundred miles per year 2/26/2018 February 26,

20 Landscape of Existing and Proposed Metrics Resilience Resilience Existing (metrics) Existing (data needed) Proposed Metrics Proposed (data needed) Cost of recovery Cumulative customer-hours of outages customer interruption duration (hours) Utility revenue lost outage cost for utility ($) Cumulative customer energy demand not served total kva of load interrupted Cost of grid damage total cost of equipment repair Avg (or %) customers experiencing an outage during a specified time period total kva of load served Cost per outage Cumulative critical customer-hours of outages critical customer interruption duration Critical customer energy demand not served total kva of load interrupted for critical customers Avg (or %) of critical loads that experience an outage total kva of load severed to critical customers Time to recovery Cost of recovery Loss of utility revenue outage cost for utility ($) Cost of grid damages (e.g., repair or replace lines, total cost of equipment repair transformers) Avoided outage cost total kva of interrupted load avoided $ / kva Critical services without power number of critical services without power total number of critical services total number of critical services with backup Critical services without power after backup fails power duration of backup power for critical services Loss of assets and perishables Business interruption costs avg business losses per day (other than utility) Impact on GMP or GRP total number of key production facilities Key production facilities w/o power w/o power (how is this different from total kva interrupted for critical customers?) Key military facilities w/o power total number of military facilities w/o power (same comment as above) 2/26/2018 February 26,

21 Bibliography GMLC1.1 Metrics Analysis. Reference Document. Version 2.1. May 2017: available at: _06_01_v4_wPNNLNo_1.pdf February 26,

22 Discussion on Resilience 2/26/ February 26,

23 Discussion on Resilience Definition of resilience: The ability to prepare for and adapt to changing conditions and withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions. Resilience includes the ability to withstand and recover from deliberate attacks, accidents, or naturally occurring threats or incidents. Source: Presidential Policy Directive 21 [PPD-21, Obama 2013] Differentiations between resilience and reliability RELIABILITY: Lack of reliability causes short-term interruptions (minutes to hours) Associated with design conditions during normal grid operations (blue sky operations) RESILIENCE Lack of resilience occurs during catastrophic events (black sky scenarios) with longterm interruptions to electric service customers and disruption to critical community services Interruption durations longer than 24 hours FERC issued a new Order (January 8 th, 2018) In response to the Secretary Perry s Proposed Rule on Grid Reliability and Resilience Pricing Order requires RTOs/ISOs within 60 days to address the following questions categories : What is the RTO s/iso s understanding of grid resilience? How do RTOs/ISOs assess threats to resilience? How do RTOs/ISOs mitigate threats to resilience? In the footnote (#31), the order encourages other entities to engage with State regulators to address resilience at the distribution level February 26,

24 Differentiation between Resilience and Reliability Metrics Reliability Reliability event SAIDI, SAIFI CAIDI, CAIFI Customer s perspective Outage cost by customer Utility s perspective Lost revenue Restauration cost LBNL s ICE calculator Valid for reliability events Up to 24 hours. Onset of interruption Service interruption Metrics Resilience Customer s perspective 1day Utility s perspective Community s perspective weeks SAIDI, SAIFI Outage cost by customer Lost revenue Critical community services disruption Timeline of interruption CAIDI, CAIFI. Restauration cost Economic disruptions with impacts on GRP Large reconstruction cost Resilience event Service Interruption Direct impacts/consequence: Interruption cost. No data exist for multi-days interruptions. Notionally cost increasing more than linearly Indirect/induced impacts: community disruptions (impact safety, health and wellbeing) Economic disruption: that percolates through local/regional economy 2/26/ February 26,

25 Two Approaches toward Metrics Development for Resilience Approach 1: Consequence-based approach Addresses the consequences of one or multiple threats to an asset or infrastructure Applications: assess consequences (direct and indirect) of threats. It s usually associated with projections and modeling (leading indicators) Purpose: Prioritizing investments for infrastructure hardening and mitigation strategies. Approach 2: Attribute-based approach Addresses the survivability posture of an asset or infrastructure to a threat or the ability to recover from a threat, predicated on sets of attributes describing level of Preparedness Ability to resist and absorb Ability to respond, adapt, and recover Applications: Requires a detailed survey instrument to collect resilience attribute characteristics and an elicitation process to define their contribution to the overall resilience Purpose: Used for monitoring progress on the resilience posture Enables comparability to peers and any other cohorts Synergies between Approach 1 + 2: Attribute-based approach can be used for screening to identify grid components to be modified to enhance resilience Consequence-based approach can be used to analyze investment alternatives Will be applied to a New Orleans case study Insert Technical Team Area 2/26/ February 26,