Resilient Energy Solutions for Community Needs

Transcription

1 Resilient Energy Solutions for Community Needs Robert Jeffers, Sandia National Laboratories Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA SAND PE

2 The Grid is the KEYSTONE INFRASTRUCTURE Electric Power Transportation Natural Gas Public Safety Public Health Shelter Water Telecommunications Banking & Finance Basic human needs are enabled by a resilient power supply during major disruptions 2

3 Resilience Science at Sandia Presidential Policy Directive 21: The term "resilience" means the ability to prepare for and adapt to changing conditions and withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions. Resilience includes the ability to withstand and recover from deliberate attacks, accidents, or naturally occurring threats or incidents. Disaster Resilience A National Imperative, National Academy of Sciences: without some numerical basis for assessing resilience, it would be impossible to monitor changes or show that community resilience has improved. At present, no consistent basis for such measurement exists 3

4 Recovery effort (Manpower) Load Served (MW) Load Not Served (MW) Resilience combines performance and response Load Not Served, Hurricane Hurricane Load Not Served Load Served, Hurricane Time prepare withstand recover adapt Labor, Hurricane Nominal Load Served Time System #1 load served Hurricane Recovery Effort Time 4

5 Recovery effort (Manpower) Load Not Served (MW) Optional: higher level metrics of consequence Load Not Served, Hurricane Hurricane Load Not Served Resilience Index = Systemic Impact + Total Recovery Effort Systemic Impact Time Labor, Hurricane Hurricane Recovery Effort Optional metrics of consequence: Gross Product ($$) Total Losses (insured vs. uninsured) Goods and Services Delivered People With Adequate Infrastructure Services Total Recovery Effort Time 5

6 Power system planners focus on keeping the lights on There are few regulatory mechanisms that reward power system planners for improving those measures city planners focus on 6

7 The Resilience Improvement Process Source: SAND September 2014 A Resilience Framework published in the 2015 Quadrennial Energy Review (QER) What is the relevant system(s)? What are the appropriate performance metrics? Set of resilience investment options Resilient to what? What do we care about? What is the likelihood of the threat? How severe can it be? What parts of the system are impacted? What are candidate resilience investments options? How do they compare? How is the system performance impacted? What are the consequences? How do they compare with the resilience goals? 7

8 Translation between planning metrics is possible Projecting performance-driven consequence subject to a wide range of threats provides a better overall risk profile 8

9 Probability of Consequences [$] Given Threat X Goals and Metrics Reduced Expected Consequence Reduced Risk E (C) E(C) Consequences [$] Resilience of System after Improvements Baseline System Resilience Measure Classification Community Measures Common Examples Number of People Without Necessary Services Lives at Risk Economic Measures Net Population Change Gross Municipal Product / Net Economic Losses Change in Capital Wealth Business Interruption Costs 9

10 Threats and Impacts Data derived from FEMA flood insurance rate maps: 10

11 # of Facilities Baseline Performance Simulate and analyze performance of an interdependent system of critical infrastructure Quadrant 2 Count of buildings above and below inundation risk cutoff Low Moderate and Above

12 Conversion to economic metrics of consequence Flood extent Direct Impacts Flood duration / dynamics Outage extent Outage duration / dynamics Other Critical Infrastructure Services Inputoutput modeling: REAcct REMI Others Indirect Impacts Data derived from FEMA flood insurance rate maps: 12

13 Direction of Improving Performance Design resilience solutions with metrics in mind ReNCAT: Optimize selection of buildings for increased energy resilience based on consequence-focused resilience metrics Microgrid locations are DRAFT and have not been fully reviewed by the City of New Orleans or Entergy New Orleans. Therefore, all of these impacts are subject to change. MDT: Microgrid Design Toolkit optimizes technology selection and sizing for individual microgrids based on multiple metrics Microgrid Design Trade Space Direction of Improving Cost (decreasing expense) 13

14 Enabling NATIONAL Resilience Giving cities access to world-class analytical talent like Sandia is exactly what is needed to build resilient cities. -Christine Morris, Chief Resilience Officer, Norfolk, VA 14

15 Backup Slides follow 15

16 We know more than we simulate 16

17 Customers without power We know more than we simulate Entergy-Wide Restoration of Customer Outages vs. Time for Major Hurricanes 1,200,000 1,000, , , ,000 Katrina (2005) Rita (2005) Gustav (2008) Ike (2008) Isaac (2012) 200, Days after landfall 17

18 Mapping Key Infrastructures to Resilience Lifeline Infrastructure Services Electric Power Entergy, SWBNO Food Commercial, PODs Drinking water SWBNO, PODs Emergency Response Police, Fire, 911 Dewatering SWBNO Communications Voice, data, broadcast Sewerage SWBNO Finances Banks, ATMs Medical Services Hospitals, Pharmacies Transportation Fuels, Road clearing Shelter City shelters, Schools Community Resilience: Ability to prepare for, adapt to, and recover rapidly from changing, non-normal events Metrics can include people without access to lifeline services, for how long, and at what consequence Consider upstream and downstream supply-chain impacts 18

19 Evac Sites Task Force Sites POD Non CASP Shelters CASP Shelters Hotels Drain Pump Stations Fire Stations Gas Stations Grocery Stores Pharmacies Police Stations Sewer Pump Stations Sewer Treatment Bank Branches Bank Mains Local EOC Air Ambulances Hospitals Medical Centers Dialysis Water Purification NOLA Fuel Storage % of Facilites Prioritize and select resilience nodes based on clustering and requirements of each region 100% % of Facilities Picked Up By Microgrids, Quadrant 2 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Some infrastructure sectors will benefit more from non-microgrid solutions, such as localized backup generation or improvement of the existing distribution system. 19

20 Ensure city-wide coverage of centralized infrastructure services is adequate 20