ECON/FIN 250: Forecasting in Finance and Economics
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1 ECON/FIN 250: Forecasting in Finance and Economics Patrick Herb Brandeis University Spring 2016 Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Course Introduction ECON/FIN 250: Spring / 18
2 Course Overview 1 Contact Information 2 Important Dates 3 Course Description 4 Prerequisites 5 Course Materials 6 Grading 7 Other Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Course Introduction ECON/FIN 250: Spring / 18
3 Contact Information Patrick Herb pmherb/teaching/fin250 Office Location: 1C Office Hours: Tuesday 1:30-2:30 Thursday 12:30-1:30 TA: Luoxi Zhang TA TA Office Hours: Monday 4-6 Homework is Uploaded on Latte Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Course Introduction ECON/FIN 250: Spring / 18
4 Important Dates No Class February 16, 18: Midterm Recess April 21: Brandeis Friday April 26, 28: Passover Group Project Due Last Class Date: April 19 Exam Dates Midterm: Mid-March Final: Thursday, May 5, 9:15 am - 12:15 am (IB7) Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Course Introduction ECON/FIN 250: Spring / 18
5 Course Description Forecasting Economics Finance Business Time Series Computational Package: Stata Download Free Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Course Introduction ECON/FIN 250: Spring / 18
6 Topics Basic Forecasting Problems Trends Seasonality Cycles Forecasting Technology Filtering ARMA Models GARCH / Volatility Forecasting Vector Autoregression (VAR) Nonstationary / Cointegration Forecast Evaluation Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Course Introduction ECON/FIN 250: Spring / 18
7 Prerequisites Statistics / Econometrics: ECON 210F & ECON 211F (or ECON 184) Finance FIN 201A / 205A (or ECON 171A) Math Calculus: 1 Course Matrix Algebra: Very Useful Computer Skills This is NOT a computer programming course However, you will write computer routines in Stata Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Course Introduction ECON/FIN 250: Spring / 18
8 Who is the course for? 2nd Year MA/MBA BA/MA MSF PhD Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Course Introduction ECON/FIN 250: Spring / 18
9 Related Courses BUS 211/212: Analyzing Big Data I & II ECON 212: Survey of Advanced Econometric Techniques ECON 261: Empirical Analysis of Trade Policy FIN 285: Computer Simulations and Risk Assessment ECON 311/312: Advanced Econometrics I & II Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Course Introduction ECON/FIN 250: Spring / 18
10 Course Materials Required Book Becketti, Introduction to Time Series Using Stata, Stata Press, 2013 Other Useful but NOT Required Readings Tsay, Analysis of Financial Time Series, 3rd edition, Wiley, 2010 Diebold, Elements of Forecasting, 4th edition. (this book is available online for free download) Hyndman and Athanasopoulos, Forecasting Principles and Practice, (online) Enders, Applied Econometric Time Series, 3rd edition, 2010 Hamilton, Time Series Analysis, 1994 (Advanced Reading-PhD) Software: Stata Available on all IBS machines Can download for free with IBS license Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Course Introduction ECON/FIN 250: Spring / 18
11 Other Computer Tools Statistical Packages Stata Eviews SAS SPSS Many More Programming Languages R Matlab Python Java / C++ Many More Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Course Introduction ECON/FIN 250: Spring / 18
12 Data Sources Stata Examples Textbook Website Course Website Public FRED Yahoo Google Brandeis Library Resources CRSP / WRDS / Compustat Bloomberg Datastream IHS Global Insights Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Course Introduction ECON/FIN 250: Spring / 18
13 Grading Problem Sets (15%) Midterm Exam (35%) Group Projects (15%) Final Exam (35%) Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Course Introduction ECON/FIN 250: Spring / 18
14 Rules & Expectations Exams Your Own Work Closed Book, No Laptops, No Cell Phones Problem Sets Submit Own Work as PDF on Latte Can Work Together Can Use All Resources Group Project Work with Group (Important Skill) Laptops are Allowed in Class Note: Using a laptop for nonacademic purposes during class is distracting to your classmates Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Course Introduction ECON/FIN 250: Spring / 18
15 Group Projects Write a Report for a Macro Time Series Applying the Skills Developed in this Class Group Size 2-4 Optimal Group Size 3 Pick a Country Comment On: Data Difficulties Missing Data Regime / Policy Changes Forecasting Successes and Failures Report to Class (3-5 minutes per group in last 1-2 classes) Short Written Report Well Documented Data & Do (Stata) Files Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Course Introduction ECON/FIN 250: Spring / 18
16 Topics Beyond This Course Machine Learning State Space Models (Kalman Filter) Bayesian Approaches High Frequency Data Panel Data Big Data Network Data Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Course Introduction ECON/FIN 250: Spring / 18
17 Time Series or Panel Data? Time Series Observing the Same Variable at Different Points in Time Many Observations Example: Quarterly GDP from Panel Data Multi-dimensional data Example: Treatment and Control Groups for Testing the Efficacy of a Certain New Drug Observation of Many People Before and After Treatment Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Course Introduction ECON/FIN 250: Spring / 18
18 Forecasting Thoughts Forecasting is Hard Forecasting is Very Hard Key Issues Forecast Objectives In Sample Bias / Data Snooping Instability / Regime Changes Patrick Herb (Brandeis University) Course Introduction ECON/FIN 250: Spring / 18
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