YOTC dataset analysis, MJO sensitivity, and ECMWF forecast skill

Transcription

1 YOTC dataset analysis, MJO sensitivity, and ECMWF forecast skill Thank You Organizers (Mitch, Duane, Jenny Lin) Peter Bechtold 1, Frederic Vitart 1, Linda Hirons 2, Sanda Ðivanović 3 1 ECMWF 2 Reading University, UK 3 Split University, Croatia 1

2 YO TC = YO UNG = YMCA (see Posters)! Linda Hirons, Reading University: Investigation of the physical mechanisms responsible for the recent MJO forecast improvements in the ECMWF IFS. King-Fai Li, CIT, USA: The Madden-Julian oscillation of tropospheric Carbon Monoxide assimilated in ECMWF Tomoki,Myakawa, Tokyo University, Japan: Convective momentum transport by rainbands within a Madden-Julian oscillation in a global nonhydrostatic model NICAM. And friends from CMA: Qiying, Chengong, Jiandong, Xiaoding, Han-Wei 2

3 Outline T9 coupled ensemble prediction: Analysis and reruns of our winter 1992/1993 benchmark MJO case T799 high-resolution: MJO Analysis during YOTC and reruns of SCM studies on environmental relative humidity 3

4 days ERA4 MJO 1992/1993 OLR anomalies - Forecast range: day E W 9W 3W E W 9W 3W ONGITUDE 29/12 29/12 3/12 31/12 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 /1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 13/1 14/1 /1 16/1 17/1 18/1 19/1 2/1 22/1 23/1 24/1 2/1 26/1 27/1 28/1 29/1 3/1 31/1 1/2 2/2 3/2 4/2 /2 6/2 7/2 8/2 9/2 /2 11/2 12/2 13/2 14/2 /2 /1 12/1 2/1 2 28/1 2 4/4 3 12/2 elz Ensemble mean ERA4 3E 9E E W 9W 3W 3E 9E E W 9W 3W /12 3/12 31/12 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 /1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 13/1 14/1 /1 16/1 17/1 18/1 19/1 2/1 22/1 23/1 24/1 2/1 26/1 27/1 28/1 29/1 3/1 31/1 1/2 2/2 3/2 4/2 /2 6/2 7/2 8/2 9/2 /2 11/2 12/2 13/2 14/2 /2 ek7h ewku ex6i elz ek7h mean ERA4 28R3 29R1 es8c er98 ewku Ensemble ERA4 mean Ensemble ERA4 mean Ensemble Ensemble mean ERA4 mean Ensemble mean mean 31R1 32R2 9W 3W 3E 9E E W 9W 3W 3E 9E 3E E 9E W E W 9W 3W 9W 3W 3E 9E 3E E 9E W E W 9W 9W 3W 3W 3E 3E 9E 9E E E W W 9W 9W 3W 3W 3E 9E E W 9W 3W 3E 9E E W 9W 3W 3E29/12 9E E W 9W 3W 29/12 29/12 29/12 29/12 29/12 29/12 29/12 3/12 3/12 3/12 29/12 3/12 3/12 3/12 3/12 3/12 31/12 31/12 31/12 3/12 31/12 31/12 31/12 31/12 31/12 1/1 1/1 1/1 31/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 1/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 1/12/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 3/1 3/1 3/1 2/13/1 3/1 3/1 3/1 3/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 3/14/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 /1 6/1 6/1 /1 /1 4//1 /1 /1 /1 6/1 6/1 6/1 6/1 6/1 /1 /1 6/17/1 6/1 7/1 6/1 7/1 7/1 7/1 7/1 7/1 7/18/1 7/1 7/1 8/1 8/1 8/1 8/1 8/1 8/1 8/19/1 8/1 8/1 9/1 9/1 9/1 9/1 9/1 9/1 9/1 /1 9/1 9/1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 11/1 /1 11/1 /1 11/1 11/1 11/1 11/1 11/1 11/1 12/1 11/1 12/1 11/1 12/1 12/1 12/1 12/1 12/1 12/1 13/1 12/1 13/1 12/1 13/1 13/1 13/1 13/1 13/1 13/1 14/1 13/1 14/1 13/1 14/1 14/1 14/1 14/1 14/1 14/1 /1 14/1 /1 14/1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 16/1 /1 16/1 /1 16/1 16/1 16/1 16/1 16/1 16/1 17/1 16/1 17/1 16/1 17/1 17/1 17/1 17/1 17/1 17/1 18/1 17/1 18/1 17/1 18/1 18/1 18/1 18/1 18/1 18/1 19/1 18/1 19/1 18/1 19/1 19/1 19/1 19/1 19/1 19/1 2/1 19/1 2/1 19/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 22/1 22/1 2/1 22/1 22/1 22/1 22/1 22/1 22/1 23/1 22/1 23/1 22/1 23/1 23/1 23/1 23/1 23/1 23/1 24/1 23/1 24/1 23/1 24/1 24/1 24/1 24/1 24/1 24/1 2/1 24/1 2/1 24/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 26/1 2/1 26/1 2/1 26/1 26/1 26/1 26/1 26/1 26/1 27/1 26/1 27/1 26/1 27/1 27/1 27/1 27/1 27/1 27/1 28/1 27/1 28/1 2 27/1 28/1 2 28/ / /1 28/ /1 29/1 28/1 29/ /1 29/1 29/1 2 29/1 29/1 29/1 29/1 3/1 29/1 3/1 29/1 3/1 3/1 3/1 3/1 3/1 3/1 31/1 3/1 31/1 3/1 31/1 31/1 31/1 31/1 31/1 31/1 31/1 1/2 1/2 31/1 1/2 1/2 1/2 1/2 1/2 1/22/2 2/2 1/2 2/2 2/2 2/2 2/2 2/2 2/23/2 3/2 2/2 3/2 3/2 3/2 3/2 3/2 3/24/2 4/2 3/2 4/2 /2 2 4/2 / /2 4/2 4/2 /2 2 /2 2 /2 2 / /2 4/2 /2 /26/2 6/ /2 /2 2 6/2 6/2 6/2 6/2 6/2 6/27/2 7/2 6/2 7/2 7/2 7/2 7/2 7/2 7/28/2 8/2 7/2 8/2 8/2 8/2 8/2 8/2 8/29/2 9/2 8/2 9/2 9/2 9/2 9/2 9/2 9/2 /2 9/2 /2 9/2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 11/2 /2 11/2 /2 11/2 11/2 11/2 11/2 11/2 11/2 12/2 11/2 12/2 3 12/2 3 12/2 3 13/2 311/2 12/ /2 12/ /2 12/2 13/ /2 13/2 13/2 3 13/2 13/2 13/2 13/2 14/2 13/2 14/2 13/2 14/2 14/2 14/2 14/2 14/2 14/2 /2 14/2 /2 14/2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 3E 9E 3E E 9E E W W 9W 9W 3W 3W /2 3E 3E9E 9E E E W W9W9W3W3W 3E 9E E W 9W 3W 3E 3E 9E 3E 9E 9EE W EW W 9W 9W3W 9W3W3W 3E 3E9E 9E E E W W 9W 9W 3W 3W 3E 9E E W 9W 3W 3E 9E E W 9W 3W 29/12 3/12 31/12 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 /1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 13/1 14/1 /1 16/1 17/1 18/1 19/1 2/1 22/1 23/1 24/1 2/1 26/1 27/1 28/1 29/1 3/1 31/1 1/2 2/2 3/2 4/2 /2 6/2 7/2 8/2 9/2 /2 11/2 12/2 13/2 14/2 /2 3E 9E E W 9W 3W /12 29/12 3/12 3/12 31/12 31/12 1/1 1/1 2/1 2/1 3/1 3/1 4/1 4/1 /1 /1 6/1 6/1 7/1 7/1 8/1 8/1 9/1 9/1 /1 /1 11/1 11/1 12/1 12/1 13/1 13/1 14/1 14/1 /1 /1 16/1 16/1 17/1 17/1 18/1 18/1 19/1 19/1 2/1 2/1 22/1 22/1 23/1 23/1 24/1 24/1 2/1 2/1 26/1 26/1 27/1 27/1 28/1 28/1 29/1 29/1 3/1 3/1 31/1 31/1 1/2 1/2 2/2 2/2 3/2 3/2 4/2 4/2 /2 /2 6/2 6/2 7/2 7/2 8/2 8/2 9/2 9/2 /2 /2 11/2 11/2 12/2 12/2 13/2 13/2 14/2 14/2 /2 /2 ex6i Ensemble mean 32R3 3E 3E 9E 9E E W 9W 3W 3E 3E 9E 9E E E W 9W 3W ERA4 E E W 9W 3W E E W 9W 3W ONGITUDE /12 3/12 31/12 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 /1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 13/1 14/1 /1 16/1 17/1 18/1 19/1 2/1 22/1 23/1 24/1 2/1 26/1 27/1 28/1 29/1 3/1 31/1 1/2 2/2 3/2 4/2 /2 6/2 7/2 8/2 9/2 /2 11/2 12/2 13/2 14/2 /2 f4i Ensemble mean 3E 9E E W 9W 3W 3E 9E E W 9W 3W f1xi Ensemble mean ERA4 Ensemble mean mean Ensemble mean ERA4 33R1 3R1 3R3 3E 9E E W 9W 3W 3E 3E9E 9E E E W W 9W 9W 3W 3W 3E 3E 9E 9E E E W W 9W 9W 3W 3W 3E 9E E W 9W 3W 29/12 29/12 29/12 29/12 29/12 3/12 3/12 3/12 3/12 3/12 29/12 31/12 31/12 31/12 31/12 31/12 3/12 1/1 1/1 1/1 1/131/12 2/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 1/1 3/1 3/1 3/1 3/1 3/1 2/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 4/1 3/1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 4/1 6/1 6/1 6/1 6/1 6/1 /1 7/1 7/1 7/1 7/1 7/1 6/1 8/1 8/1 8/1 8/1 8/1 7/1 9/1 9/1 9/1 9/1 9/1 8/1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 9/1 11/1 11/1 11/1 11/1 11/1 /1 11/1 12/1 12/1 12/1 12/1 12/1 12/1 13/1 13/1 13/1 13/1 13/1 13/1 14/1 14/1 14/1 14/1 14/1 14/1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 16/1 16/1 16/1 16/1 16/1 16/1 17/1 17/1 17/1 17/1 17/1 17/1 18/1 18/1 18/1 18/1 18/1 18/1 19/1 19/1 19/1 19/1 19/1 19/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 22/1 22/1 22/1 22/1 22/1 22/1 23/1 23/1 23/1 23/1 23/1 23/1 24/1 24/1 24/1 24/1 24/1 24/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 2/1 26/1 26/1 26/1 26/1 26/1 26/1 27/1 27/1 27/1 27/1 27/1 27/1 28/1 28/1 28/ /1 28/1 28/1 2 29/1 29/1 29/1 29/1 29/1 3/1 3/1 3/1 3/1 3/1 31/1 31/1 31/1 31/1 31/1 1/2 1/2 1/2 1/2 1/2 2/2 2/2 2/2 2/2 2/2 3/2 3/2 3/2 3/2 3/2 4/2 4/2 4/2 4/2 2 4/2 /2 / /2 /2 /2 6/2 6/2 6/2 6/2 6/2 7/2 7/2 7/2 7/2 7/2 8/2 8/2 8/2 8/2 8/2 9/2 9/2 9/2 9/2 9/2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 11/2 11/2 11/2 11/2 11/2 12/2 12/2 12/ /2 12/2 3 13/2 13/2 13/2 13/2 13/2 14/2 14/2 14/2 14/2 14/2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 3E 3E 3E9E E 9EE W E W W9W 3W 9W3W3W 3E 3E 9E 9E E E W W 9W 9W 3W 3W f4i f46n /12 3/12 31/12 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 /1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 13/1 14/1 /1 16/1 17/1 18/1 19/1 2/1 22/1 23/1 24/1 2/1 26/1 27/1 28/1 229/1 3/1 31/1 1/2 2/2 3/2 4/2 2/2 6/2 7/2 8/2 9/2 /2 11/2 312/2 13/2 14/2 /2 f1xi f6ju fdyj Ensemble mean Ensemble mean 3E 3E 9E 9E E E W W 9W 9W 3W 3W 3E 9E E W 9W 3W 29/12 3/12 29/12 31/12 3/12 31/12 1/1 2/1 1/1 3/1 2/1 4/1 3/1 /1 4/1 6/1 /1 7/1 6/1 8/1 7/1 9/1 8/1 /1 9/1 11/1 /1 11/1 12/1 12/1 13/1 13/1 14/1 14/1 /1 /1 16/1 16/1 17/1 17/1 18/1 18/1 19/1 19/1 2/1 2/1 22/1 22/1 23/1 23/1 24/1 24/1 2/1 2/1 26/1 26/1 27/1 27/1 28/1 28/1 2 29/1 29/1 3/1 31/1 1/2 2/2 3/2 4/2 2 /2 6/2 7/2 8/2 9/2 /2 11/2 12/2 3 13/2 14/2 /2 3E 3E 9E E 9E W E W 9W 3W 9W 3W /12 3/12 31/12 1/1 1/1 2/1 2/1 3/1 3/1 4/1 4/1 /1 /1 6/1 6/1 7/1 7/1 8/1 8/1 9/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 13/1 14/1 /1 16/1 17/1 18/1 19/1 2/1 22/1 23/1 24/1 2/1 26/1 27/1 28/1 29/1 3/1 31/1 1/2 1/2 2/2 2/2 3/2 3/2 4/2 4/2 /2 /2 6/2 6/2 7/2 7/2 8/2 8/2 9/2 9/2 /2 11/2 12/2 13/2 14/2 /2 fa ERA4 36R2 Ensemble mean 3E 3E 9E 9E E W 9W 9W 3W 3W 3E 3E 9E 9E E W 9W 9W 3W 3W /12 3/12 31/12 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 /1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 13/1 14/1 /1 16/1 17/1 18/1 19/1 2/1 22/1 23/1 24/1 2/1 26/1 27/1 28/1 29/1 3/1 31/1 1/2 2/2 3/2 4/2 /2 6/2 7/2 8/2 9/2 /2 11/2 12/2 13/2 14/2 /2 fdyj Ensemble mean 3E 9E E W 9W 3W 36R4 3E 9E E W 9W 3W /12 3/12 31/12 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 /1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 /1 11/1 12/1 13/1 14/1 /1 16/1 17/1 18/1 19/1 2/1 22/1 23/1 24/1 2/1 26/1 27/1 28/1 29/1 3/1 31/1 1/2 2/2 3/2 4/2 /2 6/2 7/2 8/2 9/2 /2 11/2 12/2 13/2 14/2 /2 fa Ensemble mean 3E 9E E W 9W 3W ?? 3E 9E E W 9W 3W 37R1 3

5 MJO rms errors for PC1 and PC2 PC1 PC2 37R1 36R4 37R1 36R4

6 MJO Phase 2/3 and 6/7 composites and differences between 37R1 and 36R4 Precipitation OLR Diff exp 2/3 Diff exp 6/7 2/3 6/7-2/3 6

7 MJO Phase 2/3 24h T-tendency composites and differences between 37R1 and 36R4 P (hpa) P (hpa) P (hpa) P (hpa) Cloud (K/day) Conv (K/day) W E W E Dynamics (K/day) Radiation (K/day) W E W E

8 Difference Phase 6/7-2/3 T-tendency composites for 37R1 P (hpa) P (hpa) P (hpa) P (hpa) Cloud (K/day) Conv (K/day) W E W E Dynamics (K/day) Radiation (K/day) W E W E

9 T9 Experiments (in coupled ensemble mode) for 1992/1993 period based on next operational cycle 37R3 Cycle (Exp Identifier) Details Cy 37r3 Cycle 37r3 (eifc) Summer 211 operational cycle 37r3 ENTR (file) Do NOT use RH dependent term in entrainment RAD (filf) Call Radiation every 1h and at T9 grid (instead of 3h and T9 grid) CA (fild) Couple convection with a cellular Automaton (prognostic+advection) Table 1: Summary of IFS convection scheme sensitivity experiment

10 Entrainment/detrainment in IFS qsat 1.3 RH ; 1.8 base q sat 3 m 3 1 Further simplified compared to Bechtold et al. (28) turb m ; org w z 2 u δ ε alternative: B w ; 2 u Use buoyancy and updraught vertical velocity: D. Gregory (21), D. Kim+I-S Kang (211), Chikira (2), Del Genio and Wu (2)

11 SCM model study with relaxed tropospheric RH Following Derbyshire et al. 24, QJRMS RH=2,, 7, 9% 11

12 PC2 Correlation with observed PC2 MJO skill - ENTRainment experiment 1 Linear Correlation with observed PC2: Ensemble Mean.9.8 file ENTR 37R3 filc Pers Day PC1 is neutral!! 12

13 PC1 Correlation with observed PC1 MJO skill - 1h radiation experiment 1 Linear Correlation with observed PC1: Ensemble Mean.9.8 RAD 37R3 fild filc Pers Day PC2 is neutral in correlation but also improved in rms!! 13

14 Diurnal Cycle JJA climate versus TRMM (Courtesy Drs Yukari Takayabu and Atsushi Hamada) 36R4 dt=9s rad=1h TRMM radiometer 37R1 dt=1hrad=3h 14

15 Diurnal Cycle JJA climate versus TRMM 36R4 dt=9s rad=1h TRMM radar 37R1 dt=1h rad=3h

16 Cellular Automaton coupled to convection in the IFS, together with M. Steinheimer Stochastic representation of convective cell organization by coupling a Cellular Automaton to the convection parametrization, in order to improve advection and memory properties of convection CA consists of a number of gridded cells, whose discrete states are determined by rules based on the temporal history of each cell and its immediate neighbors Two way interaction of model and CA Model -> CA: advect pattern with model wind, number of lives as function of CAPE, new cells initialized at grid points with deep convection CA -> model: modification of T and/or q input profiles to convection scheme 16

17 PC1 Correlation with observed PC1 MJO skill - Cellular Automaton experiment 1 Linear Correlation with observed PC1: Ensemble Mean.9 CA 37R3 filf filc Pers Day PC2 is neutral!! 17

18 YOTC data analysis and Forecasts only reruns all T799 deterministic Cy 31r1 Cycle (Identifier) Cycle 31r1 (eifc) Details Convection Radiation Resolution Adjustment timescale (τ) The cycle used for ERA Interim. old old TL 2 36 s CONV Cycle 33r1 (fbgq) YoTC period re-run using cycle 33r1, replacing the new convection with the old version. old new TL s OPER Cycle 32r3 to Cycle 3r3 (odfc) The operational cycle during the YoTC period. new : (A),(B) new TL 799 Tau~H/W 728 s ENTRN Cycle 33r1 (fgk8) YoTC period re-run using cycle 33r1, halving sensitivity to RHe:.*entrainment new : (A),.*(B) new TL s CAPE Cycle 33r1 (fgbl) YoTC period re-run using cycle 33r1, with constant CAPE adjustment timescale τ new : (B) new TL s Table : Summary of IFS convection scheme sensitivity experiments

19 Cy 31r1 CONV OPER Cy 31r1 CONV ENTRN OPER CAPE ENTRN CAPE Figure 2: RMSE of MJO amplitude for April 29 casestudy. Figure 1: Multivariate MJO index for April 29 casestudy at increasing forecast leadtime from t+24 h (red) to t+24 h (green).

20 Figure 3: Precipitation distribution at t+24 h for all experiments and TRMM observations (dashed line). Figure 4: CAPE distribution at t+24 h for all experiments.

21 Figure : Daily averaged precipitation in 1 kg m -2 bins of Total Column Water (TCW) for t+24 h. wide Figure 6: Daily averaged precipitation in.2 g kg -1 wide bins of 7 to hpa averaged specific humidity (q) for t+24 h.

22 Mean Precip versus TCW from 2D Pdf together with A. Geer from T799 instantaneous precipitation rates with cycle 33r1 during first 24h Critical level SSMI is from 1D-Var, but underestimates high rain rates (high TCW) as columns where more than 1/3 of precip is snow have been discarded 22

23 The global Lorenz Energy cycle including subgrid generation/conversion rates of APE da dt Generation NQ NQ -Conversion R P Lorenz efficiency factor Net heating 1 1 [1 ( 1)] T ( 1) q M Steinheimer, M Hantel, P Bechtold (Tellus, Oct 28) 23

24 Motivation: CRM equatorial channel simulations by Glenn Shutts (presented at Martin Miller symposium, Jan 211) Composite of the time-height sections of wavenumber phase for and Q. At z~ km, and convective heating are in phase 3 km 26 time (hours) 36 Think of red/orange as warm regions in m= wave and dark shading represents convective warming

25 Correlations with T at 2 hpa for Phase 2/3 and forecast steps P (hpa) Oper Old Conv dt/dt_conv dt/dt_conv 6W 6E W 6 6W 6E W 6 Precip Precip 6W 6E W 6 6W 6E W 6 2

26 Correlations with T at hpa for Phase 2/3 and forecast steps Oper dt/dt_conv 6W 6E W 6 Precip 6W 6E W 6 For energy transformations in MJO see also Yanai, Chen, Tung (2), and Matthews et a. (1999) 26

27 Conclusions MJO very sensitive to model formulations for PC2 (Indian Ocean) where all processes are of similar importance. And biggest gain might be achieved Mainly convection dynamics equilibrium for Pacific. Radiation and diurnal cycle important over Maritime Continent -> PC1 (Tibetan plateau heating and aerosols?) Model convection/entrainment formulation very reasonable and produces right moisture and precipitation sensitivities Explain the MJO by energy cycle / correlations by energy generation in upper troposphere Further optimal model (parameter) tuning of all physical processes unavoidable (even so or even more for next CRMs) to further improve MJO gain expected up to few days.. What is theoretical gain from perfect extra-tropics? 27

28 Correlation Impact of N. Extratropics on MJO forecast skill 1.9 MJO index Correlation Main impact comes from West Pacific! Relax to OBS..4 Relax to IC.3 Control Forecast Range (Days) Vitart and Jung, GRL 2

29 YOTC Momentum fluxes resolved & parametrised resolved parametrised T799 T9 Method: minus time mean state