options (alternatives)

Transcription

1 )! "!#$% #!&! '#($ * +,-./012-3/,-/ /,7,89:636 ; <=>?@ABCDE=F@GGH>IJ@KLGMLBH=>JL>LGNCHC ; O@?HCH=> PQ=RG@EST=GKH>IDTBLI@C ; U@GLBH=> =V O W B= C=E@ =BX@Q O H C?HAGH>@C * /,YZ8[3,\ 1,05. ],25.-83,-: ; O@?HCH=>S^L_H>I M>F@QTBQH?B `>?@ QBLH>BN a bcdefegh ijklc a mjnegof bcdefegh pneqcnej ; O@?HCH=>S^L_H>I M>F@Q U H C_ a rstcdqcu mjloc a vchfeqeweqx yhjlxfef š z{ }~} ƒ ~}~ /, ˆ5/.:./Š Œ5 /.[ /. 8,89:Ž3,\ /,./ 95Œ6 : * ,\ 8,0.58[3,\-ˆ5Œ 0/, 3,-/ Œ/.5 Œ8,8\ * : 2/,6305.3,\ -ˆ5 ; A=CCHRG@ LGB@Q>LBHK@CJ ; LKLHGLRG@ H>V=QELBH=> ; M>?@QBLH>BH@C H>K=GK@FJL>F ; Q@G@KL>B AQ@V@Q@>?@C * 2/Œ 3,3,\-ˆ565-/ 8..3Š5 8- / -3Œ89 /. \// /,6 options (alternatives) goals (objectives) FIND the option that best satisfies the goals RANK options according to the goals ANALYSE, JUSTIFY, EXPLAIN,, the decision œ ž Ÿ ž options EVALUATION ª ªÀ å àýááôôâ ÑÒÓÔÕÖ ãäûþ ßÙ ÒÙÖÛÒÓÔÕÖ ¹ ºª» ¼ºº ª½ º ¾ºª ªº ¹ÀÁ ÑÒÓÔÕÖ ÔÒÖ EVALUATION MODEL ANALYSIS ª««hwcfq± ²³ µ cqonh ØÙÕÖÕ ÚÛÕÜÕ ÚÔÕÝÞÖÕ ÂÃÄÅÆÇÈÉ ÊÈËÌÄÌÉÍÆ ÎÌÏÉËÐÐ

2 ž cars buying maint safety doors PRICE TECH CAR pers COMF lug problem decomposition ²ç³è µéêµ ë ëçìíìîïð ë ñ íòççïóçêµîïôëóõöì µèóîëìóð õóóøéùùôôôúûüèµýëµôú çüùîèóë ïµ þ ³ÿú ü îèóë ïµ û Ÿ INTELLIGENCE L?B H>FH>I AA=QBM> HBN W>LGNCHC AG=QLBH=> Identify decision situation and understand objectives Identify alternatives DESIGN =QEMGLBH=> =V T=GMBH=>C QLBH=> =V THEMGLBH=> Decompose and model problem structure uncertainty preferences CHOICE =LG ^LHEHLBH=> ^L_H>I Sensitivity Analyses Choose best alternative Implement Decision ž OTTJ O TT a ngot bcdefegh ngdcff 8] U ^T IJKLMN XUYYLLZ TJ ^~ WQJQNSJKLMN [\SV a ^olqe_pneqcnej IJKLMNOLJN a ojleqjqewc `tqeaefjqegh PQMNM RSMTM RLMUVNM ^olqe_yqqnekoqc a efb yhjlxfef jhu veaoljqegh!"#$%&' ()**+,,- ^guclf cjxcfejh dcqegnbf :;<=>?@AB@CD<DAE> FDGACHH.$&/0" a ^jnbgw ^gucllehf h s ijklkmn op qril g y tuvpn wknx t rukz{vkuivkp pvukpr s v}ivknx ^jq cajqedjlƒylfcknjedƒ vqjqe fqedjl ^gucllehf a yddgohqehf ƒ ehjhdejl ^gucllehf ^=F@ GGH>I ž ž /, 1 /.- Z/05993,\ /, 7,89:636 æ

3 š 1 /65-ˆ8- /,5 Œ16-2ˆ// , 65Š5.89 Š Œ Ž Š ŽŒ Š Ž Œ ž ˆ * š ŽŒ Š Ž Œ * ˆ5 œš Œ ŒŠ Œ / 2ˆ//63,\ 582ˆ 89-5.,8-3Š ˆ 8 Šž Œ,1Œ 5. 5 \./ 3- Ÿ 9/66 3, /. 8\\.5\8-50Š8915 ˆ32ˆ 89-5.,8-3Š5-/ 2ˆ//65 Ÿ O@?HCH=>S^L_H>I M>F@ QTBQH?B `>?@QBLH>BN ª«ª ± ² ª«µ ³ ¹ ³ µ 1 m θ a 1... a m θ 1 y y 1m : : : θ n y n1... y nm O@?HCH=>S^L_H>I M>F@Q U H C_ ª«ª º ª»» ¼ θ ½½ ³ ± ² ª«µ ³ ¹ ³ µ 1 m θ P(θ) a 1... a m θ 1 p(θ 1 ) y y 1m : : : : θ n p(θ n ) y n1... y nm ¾ š W EL>MVL?BMQH>I?=EAL>NJVL?@F ÀHBX L A=CCHRG@ H>?Q@LC@ H> F@EL>F V=QHBC AQ=FM?BJ?=>CHF@QC BX@ V=GG=ÀH>ID ÁÂÃÄÅÆÇÃÈÉÄÊD Ë Ì ÍÎ Ï ÎÐÍ ÑÐÒ D>=?XL>I@ Ó Ì Ô Õ ÎÔÖ D@B@>F H>I BX@HQAQ=FM?BH=> GH>@ RMNH>I L >@À EL?XH>@ Ø Ì ÙÐÚ Û DRM HGFH>I L >@À AQ=FM?BH=> XLGG ÀHBX Ý Ì ÞÒÒ ß Ô àï ÎÔ DVH>FH>I LFFHBH=>LG RMCH>@CC ALQB@QC V=QAQ=FM?BH=> áæâäåãçèæãã ÈÆÉäÂÉÄåD ^LQ_@B Q@L?BH=>DLVB@QBX@ F@?HCH=>JBX@ CLG@C?L> ÚÖÞ à Ô Ï ÍÔ =Q ÔÞ à Ô Ï ÍÔæ çäæêäèéäæâäêd êõß ÔÞÎÔ ßà ÒëÚÎ JCX=À> H> F@?HCH=> BLRG@ => BX@ >@B CGHF@ ¾ š /,-8 95 ìíîïðñìîòóï ôõöõ ô ø ù úûõúüý þ ÿ ý ùù ú öõú ýú úöôúý ôö úô ÿü úöôúý ôö úô ž ˆ

4 * 4/Œ3,8,25 * 5663Œ36-32 Z8 3Œ3, * -3Œ36-32 Z8 3Œ8 * 1. 32Ž6 * * Z3,3Œ8 5\.5- š * ˆ//65-ˆ ,8-3Š5 3-ˆ 56-2/,6515,256 3, / -ˆ5 /.90 * 12ˆ 89-5.,8-3Š /Œ /1,0 ìíîïðñìîòóï ôõöõ ô ø ù úûõúüý þ ÿ ý ùù ú öõú ýú úöôúý ôö úô ÿü úöôúý ôö úô!"#!$ %$ &$! š ' ¾ ž( ž š ) ) * *82ˆ 89-5.,8-3Š ,-50 : 3-6 +œ Ž / /,6515,25 * 722/.03,\-/-ˆ565 -ˆ ,8-3Š5 3-ˆ -ˆ5,Œ Ž / ˆ/65, -./012 - / : ;<6;= >?8@A> B::C;D76; >;BD;7 5 ;> 5 7 F MO L A; 5 E EG H I JK 5 ;> 5 7 JK J A; 5 GE GG G PQRRSTSRU VW VX YZ [\ ] š ' š ) * *82ˆ 89-5.,8-3Š ,-50 : 3-6,Œ Ž / /,6515,25 * ˆ ,8-3Š5 /. ˆ32ˆ -ˆ36,Œ Ž 2/,6515, ˆ/65, -./012 - / : ;<6;= >?8@A> B::C;D76; >;BD;7 5 ;> 5 7 F MO L A; 5 E EG H I JK 5 ;> 5 7 JK J A; 5 GE GG G ^_USTSRU [\ XV XX [X ` a b( ` a b( * +,-./ Œ5-5. d c d ef * /Œ 3,5-3Œ ,0 5663Œ /-ˆ8- u = du + ( 1 d) u h o p g hijkl g imnj o pqpr o s rt extend uvpuw x yrz{x tt}u~qpu build xu ~uq o ux o q {u o ƒ 20 cooperate 10 ˆ zw ~uq o ux o q {u o Š ŒŒ Ž Œ 0 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1 Ž Œ š œ ž Ÿ d d Evaluation of Alternatives (Hurwiz) status quo

5 ( * /, Š5, : 93[59: * -ˆ16 2/, ˆ5 Œ žœ / /1-2/Œ56 /. 582ˆ 89-5.,8-3Š5 g hijkl g imnj o pqpr o s rt uvpuw x yrz{x tt}u~qpu xu ~uq o ux o q {u o ƒ ˆ zw ~uq o ux o q {u o ª «š ˆ5 rij /.-ˆ ,8-3Š5 aj 3, θi / -ˆ , ,-ˆ ,8-3Š5 3, \3Š5, ,0 m θi aj rij = max{ yik} yij k = 1 ˆ//65 -ˆ ,8-3Š5 ˆ8Š3,\-ˆ Œ8 3Œ1Œ.5\.5- g hijkl g imnj o pqpr o s rt uvpuw x yrz{x tt}u~qpu xu ~uq o ux o q {u ± ²³ ² o ±²µ ± µ ± ˆ zw ~uq o ux o q µµ {u ± µ µµ ± µ² ² µµ ± µµ o µµ ± µ ¹ º šš» ¼½¾ À» ½Á¾ à ÄÅÄÆ Ã Ç ÆÈ ÉÊÄÉË Ì ÍÆÎÏÌ ÐÈÈÑÉÒÅÄÉ ÌÉÐÒÉÅ Ã ÉÌ Ã Å Ô ÛÝ Ú ÏÉ Ã Ó ÓÕ Ö ØÙ ÛÜÚ ÎËÐÒÉÅ Ã ÉÌ Ã Å ØÙ Ø ÏÉ Ã ÕÓ ÕÕ Õ Þßààáâáàã äå äæ çè éê ëìãáâáàã éê æä ææ éæ íîïðáñ ò d= óôõö äå è äø æ äæ æ éç ä ùúìûúüß äø éé éê éä ýßþïßã çæ è çæ çê ÿ * + :/ ˆ5 Œ8,8\5. ˆ32ˆ 89-5.,8-3Š5 /190 :/1-8[5 ˆ: * +6 -ˆ : -ˆ ,8-3Š5 ˆ: ],05. ˆ32ˆ 23.21Œ6-8, * ˆ8-28, :/1 68: 8 /1- -ˆ5 Ž Ž œ 89-5.,8-3Š5 722/.03,\-/ -ˆ5 8,89:636 ˆ5,6ˆ/ [5, /. 6ˆ/ [5, ÿ ˆ5.565, /, * ˆ5.5Š895,- 2ˆ / 582ˆ /, * ˆ8-0/:/1 -ˆ3,[ 8 /1- -ˆ ; WQ@ BX@N?=EAQ@X@>CHRG@ ; WQ@ BX@N Q@LGHCBH? ; WQ@ BX@N MC@VMG V=QAQL?BH?@ ; XH?X HC N=MQVLK=MQHB@?QHB@QH=> * +6 -ˆ ,\ /, ˆ32ˆ 8,0 ˆ: ž

6 ¾ š / 5 [,/ /. 56-3Œ8-5 -ˆ5 œ,, Ž / ! "#$ "$! % &' % ( % ) *+,- "$!. &',- ) % )),) * Z/ ˆ5 Œ/6-./ * * 52-50/8915 */ * Z/,5-8.: /8915 *Z/ ž ' ) 0 œ Z8 3Œ365-ˆ Š :5;< 1 <7273= >?@?A> BAC DE?DFG HAIJG KCCLDM@?D GDKMD@>DG >@JD> N OP N Q NR S T UV IFKMD@>DG >@JD> W OP UV RN RR U R XYZ[\][^ c _`ab[ N N Q V + V cw O UVd c N O NR+ V ef cw O RN d c N S T + V gh ij cw O RR d V c N O UV + V gh ij cw O U R d ii n EVi = p(θ j )y j= 1 ji Expected value of alternatives stable area 0 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1 probability of increased sales status quo extend build cooperate expected probability of increased sales (75%) p P(θ) a 1 a 2 a 3 θ 1 2/ θ 2 3/ θ 3 4/ HK@> BXHC F@?HCH=> BLRG@ D O@B@QEH>@ ÀXH?X LGB@ Q>LBHK@ HC R@CB L??=QFH>I B= LGG BX@?QHB@QHL ko=eh>l>?@j P@CCHEHCBH?J AB HEHCBH?J lmqàh k d=0.7m J ~LAGL?@J U@IQ@BJ ^=F@J A@?B@F nlgm@ mæ OQLÀ BX@ lmqàhoc?qhb@qh=> V=Q d [0,1]æ O= C@>CHBHKHBN L>LGNCHC æ 59 -ˆ5 8.Œ5. ˆ/ ,\ ˆ32ˆ 2./ -/ 98,- 3, -ˆ5 825 / 1,25.-83, 58-ˆ5. 8, ,\2./ :3590 Weather probability Normal Drought Rainy Plant soybeans $ Plant corn profit per acre

7 r u e 45 3, /,./ 95Œ / :/1. /, s.5.565,- 3-3, /, t 8, ˆ / * e ]63,\6/Œ /, Œ 95Œ5,- 3,6.5806ˆ55-6/ ˆ 86 Z * 259 * 5Š8918-3/, / 89-5.,8-3Š56 163,\ 899 -ˆ * 0.8 3,\ -ˆ52ˆ / ˆ 1. 3Ž /, * 0.8 3,\ -ˆ565,63-3Š3-: 8,89:636 2ˆ8.- /Œ 8.5-ˆ5- /2ˆ8.-6 q