Risk assessment research for power transformer based on fuzzy synthetic evaluation

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1 Avalable onlne Jounal of Chemcal and Phamaceutcal Reseach, 23, 5(2):62-68 Reseach Atcle ISSN : CODEN(USA) : JCPRC5 Rsk assessment eseach fo powe tansfome based on fuzzy synthetc evaluaton B Tan Shu, Chen Jn Meng,2 and Sun Meng 2 Noth Chna Electc Powe Unvesty, Changpng Dstct, Bejng, Chna 2 State Gd Mateals Company Lmted, Xcheng Dstct, Bejng,Chna ABSTRACT Rsk assessment fo powe tansfome s an mpotant means to gude the condton based mantenance of tansfome and enhance the elablty of powe system opeaton, but also to stengthen the powe tansfome to povde an mpotant bass fo qualty contol. In ths pape, an ndex system fo compehensve evaluaton of tansfome s put fowad and a sk assessment model fo powe tansfome based on fuzzy synthetc evaluaton s bult, whch based on the qualty poblems of lage powe tansfome statstcs of State Gd Copoaton of Chna(SGCC) n 22 and combned wth multlaye and mult-facto featues of the tansfome lfe cycle management pocess. The assessment example analyss shows that the method can effectvely estmate the sk of each stage fo the lfe cycle management of powe tansfome and povde feasble decson bass fo the sk management and mantenance decson of tansfome. Key wods: powe tansfome; sk assessment; lfe cycle management; fuzzy synthetc evaluaton INTRODUCTION Powe tansfome s one of the key equpment n the powe system. Its qualty s dectly elated to the contnuous and stable opeaton of the powe system. It s necessay to cay on the sk assessment of powe tansfome, dentfy the possble sks and the mpact of these sks, and take appopate safety measues to effectvely educe o avod these sks [-2]. The tadtonal sk assessment of powe tansfome s pmaly based on fault dagnoss, nfluence analyss and fault pedcton of the opeaton condton. The methods nclude tadtonal ol analyss [3],fuzzy decson analyss [2], atfcal neual netwok [4], wavelet analyss [5], fuzzy easonng [6], gey clusteng [7],small-wold netwok [8], nfomaton fuson [9], pobablty easonng [], decson tee [], pet nets [2-3]. But all those method dd not consde the manufactue level and hdden defects. The manufactung supevson can fnd the hdden defects mmedately, and the nfomaton can be used to sk assessment. The synthetc evaluaton ndex system wth multply factos of powe tansfome s establshed, whch s based on the lfe cycle qualty nfomaton ncludng manufactung, nstallaton, commssonng and opeaton status. The fuzzy synthetc evaluaton method s adopted. The multlaye fuzzy synthetc evaluaton model s bult wth lfe cycle qualty nfomaton of powe tansfome. II. RISK ASSESSMENT INDEX SYSTEM OF POWER TRANSFORMER A. Fault analyss of powe tansfome Qualty defect analyss s an mpotant lnk to fault dagnoss and mantenance stategy detemnaton of powe tansfome [4-5]. Accodng to the powe tansfome data statstcal and analyss of SGCC n 22, the qualty defects dung manufactung stage ae 688 cases, popoton of 84%. The detal nfomaton s show n Fg.. 62

2 B Tan Shu et al J. Chem. Pham. Res., 23, 5(2):62-68 Fg. The poblem dstbuton of the stages of tansfome Consdeng the vaous factos affectng powe tansfome qualty, the causalty s classfed as show n table I. It s shown that the manufactung pocess contol and mateal o set of pats poblems ae the man causes of powe tansfome faults and defects. TABLE I. STATISTICS OF TRANSFORMER QUALITY DEFECT RISK TYPE Cause type Popoton Sub cause type Manufactung pocess contol 43% Fnal assembly Ol tank manufactung Insulaton assembly Coe manufactung Actve pat assembly Wndng manufactung Mateals and component (assembly) pats 25% Qualty defects Dsconfomty wth ageement Packng and tanspotaton 9% Inadequate potecton Tanspotaton management Desgnng and stuctue 7% Ill-conceved desgn Not desgned accodng to the equements Routne test 5% Routne test management Not test accodng to the equements Stoage % Impope stoage Othes % Msmanagement B. Rsk assessment ndces of powe tansfome The sk assessment of powe tansfome s based on the lfe cycle qualty nfomaton, whch ncludes the manufactung, nstallaton, commsson and opeaton status. The sk assessment ndex of powe tansfome s a thee-laye heachy system. The second laye ncludes the manufactung ndex X, nstallaton ndex X 2, commsson ndex X 3, and opeaton ndex X 4. The thd laye ncludes 7 ndces, whch ae manufactung pocess contol, mateal and component (assembly) pats, packng and tanspotaton, desgn and stuctue, outne test, stoage and othes. The heachcal ndces system of sk assessment fo powe tansfome s shown n fgue 2. 63

3 B Tan Shu et al J. Chem. Pham. Res., 23, 5(2):62-68 Fg. 2 Heachcal ndces system of sk assessment fo powe tansfome III. MULTILAYER FUZZY SYNTHETIC EVALUATION OF POWER TRANSFORMER The fuzzy synthetc evaluaton s adopted to sk assessment fo powe tansfome. It s based on the lfe cycle qualty nfomaton, whch can eflect the compehensve eal opeaton status n dffeent aspects. The fuzzy synthetc evaluaton method s used to evaluate the system wth fuzzness, whch s based on the fuzzy mathematcs pncple. It s a knd of combnaton wth qualtatve and quanttatve, accuate and pecse method of analyss and evaluaton. At fst, the method evaluates the sngle facto, and then fuzzy deducton wth the pedetemned ule set, fnally, explanng the evaluaton esults by the cetan pncple. It can obtan a subjectve sk assessment ndex system based on the paametes and status of powe tansfome. A. Sngle level fuzzy synthetc evaluaton )Establshment of facto set The status elated factos of powe tansfome wee establshed, whee the state paametes ae as the evaluaton facto. The evaluaton system s consst of taget laye, cteon laye, ndex laye, as shown n fgue 2. X=(X, X 2, X 3, X 4 ) 2)Establshment of evaluaton set The state of powe tansfome can be devded nto 4 type, as good, geneal, attenton, seous. V={good, geneal, attenton, seous}={v, v 2, v 3, v 4 } [7] Establshment of fuzzy evaluaton matx Assume u (=,2,...,m) s the one of the ndex set fo the evaluaton of powe tansfome. The membeshp degee fo the state v of evaluaton set s j (j=,2,3,4), then the membeshp degee set R ={, 2, 3, 4 } means the evaluaton esult of u. All the ndces of the subtem make up the fuzzy evaluaton matx R. 2 R m 2 22 m m m4 64

4 B Tan Shu et al J. Chem. Pham. Res., 23, 5(2): )Establshment of weghtng set The mpotance degee of the facto should be gven dung the synthetc evaluaton, whch s namely the elatve weght between the ndces and layes. The mpotance degee fuzzy set of powe tansfome s sk facto s gven n the facto set doman as A=(a,a 2,...,a m ), whee a means the quanttaton of nfluence degee fo facto u n the synthetc evaluaton. The mpotance degee fuzzy set A of powe tansfome s sk facto and the fuzzy evaluaton matx R ae both known. The lnea tansfomaton s done to the R, whee the A tansfes to the fuzzy subset of the evaluaton set V of powe tansfome. B A R b, b2,, b n B means the synthetc evaluaton set of powe tansfome sk of matx V. b j means the membeshp of fuzzy synthetc evaluaton set B. 4)Fuzzy synthetc evaluaton fo powe tansfome sk By means of the maxmum membeshp degee pncple, the maxmum b j of B used as the synthetc evaluaton esult fo the coespondng level v j. B. Mult-level fuzzy synthetc evaluaton If the evaluaton ndces have a multple layes, the evaluaton should be taken multple tmes by means of the sngle level method. The method begns at lowest level, and evaluates fom bottom to top. The sngle level sub-taget evaluaton esult should be obtaned at fst, then the evaluaton set B j of the same laye make up the new fuzzy matx R. B B2 R Bl Subscpt l means the quantty of sub-taget fo the same laye n the fomula. If the weghts of the sub-taget as A A, A, A, 2 l Then the synthetc evaluaton to the above laye as B A R b,, b,2,, b, n Whee, - means the above laye of. The method s used fom the bottom laye to the top laye, and fnally the synthetc evaluaton fo the taget s obtaned. B b,, b,2,, b, n By means of the maxmum membeshp pncple, max(b,,b,2,...,b,n ) s the fnal evaluaton esult to the coespondng laye. IV. EXAMPLE ANALYSIS An kv powe tansfome s used n the example. Rsk assessment of the powe tansfome s taken, whch s based on the lfe cycle qualty nfomaton, ncludng the manufactung, nstallaton, commsson, opeaton status. Though the statstc of the defects and faults nfomaton by means of manufactung supevson, the qualty poblem wee classfed to 7 aspects, whch ncludes the manufactung pocess contol, mateal and component (assembly) set, packng and tanspotaton, desgn and stuctue, outne test, stoage and othes. The fuzzy synthetc 65

5 B Tan Shu et al J. Chem. Pham. Res., 23, 5(2):62-68 evaluaton matx of R manufactung supevson s obtaned. R By expets evaluaton, the weght A fo the laye as: A.72,.,.,.7,.5,.,.7 Combnaton the weght and evaluaton matx, the synthetc evaluaton esult B as: B A R.2,.47,.23,. By means of the maxmum membeshp degee pncple, the manufactung supevson sk s geneal. In the same way, the nstallaton evaluaton as: A 2 R 2.44,.29,.5,.,.3,, B 2 A2 R ,,.,.2 By means of the maxmum membeshp degee pncple, the nstallaton sk s good. The commsson evaluaton as: A 3 R 3.44,.29,.5,.,.3,,.9 B 3 A3 R3.44,,, By means of the maxmum membeshp degee pncple, the commsson sk s good. 66

6 B Tan Shu et al J. Chem. Pham. Res., 23, 5(2):62-68 The opeaton evaluaton as: A 4 R 4.44,.29,.5,.,.3,, B 4 A4 R4...44,,., By means of the maxmum membeshp degee pncple, the opeaton sk s good. The second level fuzzy synthetc evaluaton s taken based on the above esults. Combnng the manufactung supevson, nstallaton, commsson and opeaton factos, the new fuzzy matx R s obtaned R The weght set A=(.84,.7,.2,.7), then the fuzzy synthetc evaluaton B fo powe tansfome sk as: B A R.2,.47,.23,. By means of the maxmum membeshp degee pncple, the lfe cycle qualty sk s geneal. CONCLUSION The sk assessment ndces system of powe tansfome s establshed based on the fuzzy synthetc evaluaton method, whch manly ncludes the manufactung supevson ndex, nstallaton ndex, commsson ndex and opeaton ndex. It povdes the bass to sk assessment of powe tansfome. Based on the ndces system, the mult-level fuzzy synthetc sk evaluaton model s put fowad. Though evaluatng the sub-taget sk of powe tansfome, the compehensve sk evaluaton fo lfe cycle of powe tansfome s gven out. The example shows that the fuzzy synthetc evaluaton model s avalable. It can be used to the sk assessment of powe tansfome. REFERENCES [] Wang Youyuan, Zhou Jngjng, Chen Wegen, et al. Chnese Jounal of Scentfc Instument, 29, 3(8): [2] Wang Png. Automaton of electcal powe systems, 996, 2(2): [3] Sun Caxn, Chen Wegen, L Jan, et al. On-lne montong and fault dagnoss on ol-gas of electc equpment[m]. Bejng: Scence publshment, 23, [4] Y Zhang,Y Lu, et al. IEEE Tansactons On Powe Delvey,996,(4):836~84 [5] Yann-Chang Huang. IEEE Tansactons on powe delvey,23,8(4): [6] Q Su,C M, et al. IEEE Tansactons on Powe Systems, 2,5(2): [7] Sun Caxn, Guo Junfeng, Lao Rujn, et al. Poceedngs of the CSEE, 2, 2(2):37-4 [8] Ba Cufen, Gao Wensheng, Ddng Dengwe. Hgh Volt age Engneeng, 2,36(4): [9] Shang Yong, Yang Chunjang, Yan Zhang, et al. Poceedngs of the CSEE, 22, 22(7):5-8 [] Yang L, Shang Yong, Zhou Yuefeng, et al. Poceedngs of the CSEE, 2, 2(7):9-23 [] Sun Hu, L Wedong, Sun Qzhong. Poceedngs of the CSEE, 2,2(2):5-55 [2] Wang janyuan, J yanchao. Poceedngs of the CSEE, 23, 23(),

7 B Tan Shu et al J. Chem. Pham. Res., 23, 5(2):62-68 [3] Wang Nan, Lu Fang-cheng, Lu Yun-peng, et al. Poceedngs of the CSEE, 23, 23(2):27-32 [4] DONG X, LIU Y. Intenet Applcaton n Condton Montong of Powe Equpment[C]. Wuhan: the fst Intenatonal Confeence on Insulaton Condton Montong of Electcal Plants, 2 [5] Wang Z Y, Wang N C, Guo T Y, et al. Atfcal Intellgence n Powe Equpment Fault Dagnoss[C]. Sngapoe: IEEE PES Wnte Meetng Poceedng, 2 [6] Tang W H, Spugeo K, Wu Q H, et al. IEEE Tans on Powe Delvey, 24, 9(4): [7] Lao Rujn, Wang Qan, Luo Sja, et al. Automaton of electc powe systems, 28, 32(3):

Effectiveness evaluation of electronic warfare command and control system based on grey AHP method

Effectiveness evaluation of electronic warfare command and control system based on grey AHP method Avalable onlne www.jocp.com Jounal of hemcal and Phamaceutcal Reseach, 014, 6(7):535-54 Reseach Atcle ISSN : 0975-7384 ODEN(USA) : JPR5 Effectveness evaluaton of electonc wafae command and contol system